Essential Research leadership ratings and end-of-year review

Scott Morrison’s personal ratings maintain a downward trend, as the government scores middling ratings for its overall performance for the year.

Essential Research has published its final fortnightly poll for the year, which includes its monthly leadership ratings. Scott Morrison is down two on approval to 46% and up two on disapproval to 44%, his weakest numbers since the onset of COVID-19 and a continuation of a downward trend since March. Anthony Albanese is steady on 40% approval and up one on disapproval to 36%. Essential’s numbers for both leaders are consistently more favourable than those for other pollsters. Morrison’s lead on preferred prime minister is down from 44-28 to 42-31, the narrowest it has been all term.

The federal government’s ratings for COVID-19 response have deteriorated after a three-month improving trend, down six on good to 41% and up seven on poor to 32%. The equivalent results for the states record a one point drop in the New South Wales government’s good rating to 54%, an eight point drop in the Victorian government’s rating to 43% and a three point drop for Queensland to 57%. The Western Australian government is up four to 78% and the South Australian government is down three to 57%, with due caution to the tiny sample sizes in these cases.

Respondents were asked about the Coalition’s performance on various matters since it came to power in 2013, and were interestingly given the opportunity to indicate whether the issue was important or unimportant to them in addition to evaluating the government’s performance. Its worst results came for handling sexual assault and misconduct, with 35% from the 50% who rated it poorly considering it an important issue, and handling of corruption allegations, rated likewise by 35% from 49%. However, the government now records neutral ratings on the vaccine rollout and is rated very favourably for the legalisation of same-sex marriage.

As it does at the end of each year, the pollster asked if had been a good or a bad year for various actors, with the federal government deemed to have had a good year by 34% and a poor year by 38%. Thirty-eight per cent considered it had been a good year for them and their family compared with 23% for poor; 37% rated their personal financial situation favourably compared with 30% for unfavourably. As usual, large companies and corporations were deemed to have done best of all, at 52% for good and 21% for poor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of around 1000.

Another poll worth noting is a Western Australian survey for Painted Dog Research, published today in The West Australian, which found more respondents considering the state’s recently announced opening up date of February 5 to be too soon (36%) than too late (18%), with 46% deeming it right. Mark McGowan was credited with a 77% approval rating, down from 88% in a previous survey in February. The poll was conducted Monday and Tuesday from a sample of 811.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,431 comments on “Essential Research leadership ratings and end-of-year review”

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  2. Sure the Analytic/Holistic thing is merely a Boxing Day parlour game. As I was working through the questions I was trying to figure out which of the multiple potential alternative interpretations of some of them was most valid- pointing to an overly analytical disposition perhaps. But I do quite like being an INFJ… though I also see that as mostly in parlour game category.

  10. Looks like Perrottet’s dream of “freedom for Christmas” has become something of a nightmare.

    ‘Let’s get out’: Premier urges public to go on with holidays

    Travel agents say increasing COVID case numbers, which has forced thousands to isolate, has led to people cancelling bookings across the state.
    2 hours ago
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/let-s-get-out-premier-urges-people-to-holiday-as-covid-cancellations-bite-20211226-p59k71.html

  11. Q: I also wrote that there should be prime ministerial residences in other capital cities to fill the same function.

    Is this a joke….what for, national PM royal tours? Imagine trying to sell this to the electorate.

  12. citizen @ Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 10:07 pm

    This is the stuff of political downfalls. I previously quoted words attributed to Macmillan for Morrison, but it is apt for Perrottet as well:

    “Events, my dear boy, events”

  13. Kirribilli House was bought in 1920 by the Billy Hughes government to prevent the historic property being subdivided and possibly being demolished.

    It was never used as a permanent residence for the PM’S family until John Howard.

  14. Kiribilli became the PMs Sydney residence when the PM was from Victoria (Menzies). This was followed by Holt who was from Melbourne and Gorton moved there after becoming PM. McMahon and Whitlam were both from Sydney, but then Fraser and Hawke were based out of Victoria.
    It only really became a symbol of power when Howard refused to make the Lodge his main residence.
    It is not like there are not suitable buildings in Melbourne that could be used as official residence with a little work. But I always thought a suave developer would offer to give a couple of floors of an apartment complex as an official residence which could then be used as a selling point for the rest of the apartments.

  17. The LNP have given no sign that they put their duty to the Australian community above their own covenience. We are all paying for their self indulgence.

  23. Leroy @ #2420 Sunday, December 26th, 2021 – 8:22 pm

    Newspoll quarterly breakdown of aggregate national polling data 29 Sep – 4 Dec 2021 (not a new poll).

    Newspoll shows support for minor parties back to pre-pandemic levels
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll-shows-support-for-minor-parties-back-to-prepandemic-levels/news-story/5b65794e66f04f927fa61290139c7db5

    You can open the data graphic here for free
    https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/249574dfc5727a87e91bbdcac2bd8c30

    Thanks.

    Interesting that the male/female vote more closely matches each other.

    Also surprised to see the Coalition leads amongst University graduates.

  24. Barney in Tanjung Bunga says:
    Sunday, December 26, 2021 at 11:36 pm

    Also surprised to see the Coalition leads amongst University graduates.
    _____________

    Only just on the primary votes, it is 52-48 ALP on 2PP.

    In fact the LNP is behind on most of the demographics for the 2PP even the TAFE Tradie types. Only the higher income, retireds seem to be in favour.

    Oh wait LNP leads 55-45 for the Christian nutters so cutting through there.

  25. bc:

    I think a basic understanding of the four preferences (particularly E/I and J/P) is handy in understanding other people. However, whether the combination of the four preferences actually can lead to a detailed personality profile is probably highly doubtful. There might be some truth to the generalisations made in the different MB types. But, equally there are plenty of things that don’t apply.

    I did find Myers-Briggs to be incredible useful in understanding why some people (e.g. my boss at one time) wanted me to make estimates on the delivery date of a project when everything was up in the air, or why others (e.g. my wife) get really stressed when tasks are outstanding. It also helped me understand myself a little better.

    It’s also interesting when you hear “experts” in MB talking about function stacks. I’m yet to be convinced that they’re not just going deeper down their own rabbit hole.

    By the way, I type as an ENFP.

    I usually (not always) get INTJ when I do the Myers-Briggs. I relate to an INTJ meme I saw a lot – “I would argue a position I actually disagree with, just to annoy you.” But the idea that there are only 16 personality types is really only 4 more than astrology offers.

  27. Leroy @ #2419 Sunday, December 26th, 2021 – 11:22 pm

    Newspoll quarterly breakdown of aggregate national polling data 29 Sep – 4 Dec 2021 (not a new poll).

    Newspoll shows support for minor parties back to pre-pandemic levels

    —
    Minor parties got 23% of the PV in 2016, 25% in 2019 and this quarterly summary shows no sign of them going away any time soon, especially in QLD, WA and Tasmania.

    The Pollsters still seem to be showing no indication of learning from the pre 2019 election when they appeared to have been under sampling lower educated voters and/or provincial seat voters.

    These things contributed to the 3.0 % “error” in their predictions and a grand total of 9 seats changing hands in 2019.

    Three seats went to Labor (two of them notionally Labor anyway on pre-election redistributions), five seats went to the Coalition and one to an Independent.

    It was the election you have when you are not having an election after the pollsters had Labor winning a majority and the biggest question was by how much ?

    Some of the things post election analysts noted were things like –

    (1) The popular obsession with the pre election 2PP poll numbers,;

    (2) Headline assumptions of a uniform 2PP swing which never happens;

    (3) Claims that Labor could not win an election unless the PV got back to levels enjoyed before the non green “other” voters started to take a bite out of the two major parties PV;

    (4) Media outlets claiming 2019 was to be a Climate Change election based on the bleating’s of voters in inner city Seats (which should favour Labor) but in reality it turned out to be an election on leadership trust or distrust in Shorten’s case and economic stability for lower educated voters in outer suburban and provincial seats;

    (5) Labor’s campaign in 2019 failed to hurt where it counts, in outer suburban and provincial seats..and

    (6) Their policy approach scared the beejesus out of retirement age voters, blue collar workers in provincial and urban fringe seats and anyone who swallowed the “death tax” lie that saturated and dominated the internet in the critical weeks before the election.

    Given these rear vision mirror observations, it is surprising that Labor got away with a Claytons election in 2019 (gaining three seats, losing five).

    If Labor make the same mistake of sandbagging seats they don’t need to and not focussing on getting their PV within 5-6% of the Coalition PV in outer suburban and provincial seats and leaving the 2PP headlines to the commentariat to fight over, they will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, albeit with a minority government the most likely result they can hope for.

  29. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Further losing the plot, Perrottet has urged the public to press ahead with plans to holiday in regional areas recovering from bushfire and other natural disasters despite escalating COVID-19 cases forcing many people to cancel or delay trips.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/let-s-get-out-premier-urges-people-to-holiday-as-covid-cancellations-bite-20211226-p59k71.html
    This isn’t America, so please stop acting like a Yank, urges an unimpressed Ross Gittins in this good read.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/this-isn-t-america-so-please-stop-acting-like-a-yank-20211226-p59k6a.html
    High vaccination rates have ended lockdowns on Australia’s east coast, but shortcomings within our testing and isolation systems have been exposed by the current outbreak, says the SMH editorial.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/rapid-changes-needed-to-relieve-pressure-on-pcr-testing-system-20211226-p59k81.html
    According to The Age, Victoria’s COVID-19 response commander says the Omicron variant is now “established in the community”, as wait times for testing continued to swell across Melbourne on Boxing Day. Jeroen Weimar said on Sunday health authorities had moved to random genomic screening of positive cases to decipher the spread of the variant, as they expect “Omicron to gather pace in Victoria”.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melbourne-covid-19-testing-centres-close-under-strain-on-boxing-day-20211226-p59k5y.html
    Timna Jacks looks at what we seem to know about the Omicron variant so far.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/omicron-what-we-know-so-far-20211226-p59k6t.html
    “Don’t let La Nina fool you, Black Summer could be around the corner”, warns Greg Mullins.
    https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/don-t-let-la-nina-fool-you-black-summer-could-be-around-the-corner-20211221-p59jdf.html
    Defence’s painfully slow procurement process will be overhauled amid growing strategic urgency, slashing up to 12 months from the four years it typically takes to get projects to contract stage, writes The Australian’s Ben Packham.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/defence-to-accelerate-purchases-as-strategic-urgency-increases/news-story/faa43e2dc20cb01f7de5db7789fb9b2c
    Strike Force Trawler’s 22 investigators spend their days online, impersonating children or paedophiles before a sting. They have never lost a case in court, explains Sally Rawsthorne.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/inside-strike-force-trawler-the-secretive-police-unit-that-traps-would-be-child-abusers-20211223-p59juj.html
    A great summary of England’s woes on day one of the Boxing Day Test from the erudite Gideon Haigh.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/cricket/changes-to-the-team-sheet-but-the-same-general-insipidity-from-england/news-story/9ec21307e1560d2c127fecba51bfe8c9
    For years, some experts have warned that the global economy is overly reliant on lean production and faraway factories, exposed to the inevitable shock. The pandemic has seemingly validated that view. “Lean and Fragile” is the antithesis of “Robust and Buffered”.
    https://www.afr.com/companies/manufacturing/how-the-supply-chain-crisis-unfolded-20211225-p59k56
    What to Expect When You’re Expecting has been a trusty companion for a generation of expectant parents. But those using the book’s app have also found a “community” section rife with scare stories and conspiracy theories, says The Washington Post.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/pregnancy-apps-become-a-battleground-of-vaccine-misinformation-20211224-p59jzr.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding



    Stan Eales

    Mark Knight

    John Spooner

    From the US





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