Unless Roy Morgan is feeling ambitious, we’re unlikely to see new polling until mid-to-late January, although The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns immediately after Christmas. If breakdowns are your game, Essential Research now provides a mother lode of them for all its polling going back the start of 2020, with voting intention broken down by (mainland) state, gender, age cohort, work status and region (categorised as inner metro, outer metro, provincial and rural). With the availability of this data, it will become worth my while to again provide state-level polling trends in BludgerTrack, as was done before the 2019 election. So stay tuned for that. For the time being, Essential’s state and gender results are now included in my poll data archive.
A few other polling morsels to report:
• The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania snuck out last week without me noticing. It found little change on the last poll in August, with the Liberals steady on 49%, Labor down two to 26% and the Greens steady on 13%, which in turn differed little from the March election result of Liberal 48.7%, Labor 28.2% and Greens 12.4%. Peter Gutwein’s 59-28 lead over Rebecca White as preferred premier is likewise hardly changed from 59-29 last time. The poll was conducted November 28 to December 5 from a sample of 1000.
• JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey on issue salience. Ratings for the government’s performance across a range of 20 issues are down across the board by zero to five points since July, with defence, security and terrorism and immigration remaining its strongest suits and cost of living and environment/climate change its weakest. Among many findings about COVID-19, the federal government is deemed to have performed well by 40% and poorly by 28%, while state and territory governments in aggregate are on 60% and 12% respectively, with both maintaining downward trends from a peak late last year. Cost of living and health are rated effectively equal as the issue the government should be most focused on, with 59% and 58% respectively including them among five choices out of a list of 20. The survey was conducted November 22 to November 24 from a sample of 1000.
• Recommended reading: Kevin Bonham on “the overrated impact of party preferencing decisions” and Alan Kohler on the Australian Electoral Commission.
1,588 comments on “Yuletide polling detritus”
Was the testing centre in Wyndham St opposite Redfern Station? I saw a big queue there when I was looking for Dom Perignon’s new bus arrangements. Found it on Regent St. The 392, which used to run down Bunnerong Road from La Perouse, then Anzac, Flinders, Oxford , Elizabeth to Circular Quay and back again- basically a straight line, now goes from Redfern, up through Waterloo along Raglan (what a mess) then Phillip past Redfern Oval, then Bourke. I got off at Sydney Toyota. But I have no idea where it goes after that or how it gets there. Apparently Port Botany which is next to La Perouse. An absolute fiasco.
Lars Von Trier says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 9:02 pm
Is this all Liberal Dirt Unit come up with?
D&M, hope your test result is negative! Am getting tested tomorrow because of family catch- up on Xmas Eve, so won’t go unless have been given the all clear. Better to know earliest rather than be uncertain, waiting for symptoms.
One Root Cause of Pandemics Few People Think About:-
Douglas and Milko,
Get well soon! Hope the test is negative. Omicron is spread ridiculously easily.
Asha @ #196 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 9:14 pm
Desperately choking back maniacal laughter I would think. And putting in bulk popcorn orders.
But call it kismet. When Pinochet came to power, he was deadly. How many were killed is not clear (north of 6000 is a good bet). He particularly hated the arts, and universities, including teachers whose only sin was to be educated in said institutions.
Two anecdotes, before I bore the pants off you:
1) In 1974 many people fled Chile, and my local Catholic Church put out a call for people to welcome the refugees. Our family became friends with an English and Spanish teacher called Enrichetta. I was about 14, and it was a wonderful cultural experience for me – she had to flee Chile purely because she was a teacher. She was not particularly political, except for thinking the Pinochet coup was a bad thing.
2) I was on sabbatical on 2009, staying in this amazing house owned by Universidad de Chile. We had the place to ourselves, because we were there in the “off-season”. But over summer it was used to house undergraduate students from Yale who came to study the southern skies. There was a great printout of a powerpoint presentation of the history of El Observatorio Cerro Calan, of U Chile. It started in about 1850, went through a few bits of history, and then then, in 1973, it showed this big explosion. The timeline restarted in 1990. Yep, 1973 – 1990 in Chile were not good years, but they were a resilient population, and now they are doing really well, and attempting to put right the “wrongs” visited upon them by the “Chicago Boys” (not not Jake and Elwood, but bloody Hayek and Friedman), which were written into their constitution in such a way that it is taking many decades to unravel.
imacca @ #1549 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 10:16 pm
You can add, deliberately, to that.
“So, hold on, are Labor terrified of the Voices independents or secretly backing them? I’m confused.”
I can see where this is going.
Anyone involved with a Teal who may have at any point in their life actually picked up or even brushed by an ALP HTV card will be defined as an ALP operative and the CONSPIRACY IS EXPOSED!!!!
And, if those dirty ALP machine people don’t actively oppose any Teal candidate who has the temerity to run against a Liberal candidate then the CONSPIRACY IS CONFIRMED!!!!!
Lol!! This is real Planet Janet type stuff. 🙂
If you could fight Covid with guns and bullets, patrol boats, subs and fighter jets, Morrison, Dutton, et al would be right on it. Mind you, they’d make a compete dogs breakfast of it but they’d see it as something they could get right into. Or maybe if Covid could be blamed on unions, greenies or foreigners, prefereably non-white and/or Communist. In fact they’ve even tried this.
But Covid requires community action, national and international cooperation, scientific advice and hard decisions the effect of which can’t be restricted to people outside their constituency (poor/non-Anglo/not in spreadsheet). Nature will take its course. But don’t worry, the Rich will be OK.
No. I drove past that one and saw the queue, but in the end decided to go the the Redfern Helath Centre (the old Redfern Courthouse) on Redfern street.
The changes on the bus routes is gobsmacking, and the locals are really confused, as I have been.
Our family tends to oscillate between the Mountains and the Eastern suburbs, and I remember the 392 from decades ago, running from LaPer to the city. Seeing it now go through Redfern is bizarre.
Why they would re-route bus routes that have probably been running since the trams disappeared is weird. New numbers would have made more sense.
Douglas and Milko at 10:22 pm
Two names that make me want to spit. Grrr. My chillie selection this year include several from Sth America and a couple from Chile, Aji Crystal from Curico and popular with the Mapuche people, Cacho de Cabra.
Also, thanks to C@t and Quasar for your good wishes.
I suspect it is just a virus I got from my grandkids – they make excellent virus reservoirs, but I really want to be be careful!
“But Covid requires community action, national and international cooperation, ”
I think the reason Steve777 that i am an ALP member, is that what i know of human evolution tells me that we, as a species, are at our best when we cooperate. Each try to do our bit, and rely on those around us to do the same. I think that real leaders who achieve worthwhile things are the ones who can bring people together and bring them along. Ones that actually do have some respect for and empathy with those being led.
Buts that’s a foreign country for the current right wing who work on divide and the whole “they are the others you need to be protected from” thing. 🙁
I hope the test is negative, D&M
Douglas and Milko 10:37 pm
Not often you want to fail a test but this is a good one to ‘fail’ with a mark of zero.
Good luck D&M. 🙂
Fareed Zakaria, eminently sensibly, on leaders:
My sister (age late 50s) tested positive for Covid earlier this week. The result took three and a half days to come through (NSW Central Coast). She is isolating at home, so far so good. She’s a teacher – she probably picked it up at school. Symptoms have been relatively mild and she seems to be on the improve. Fingers crossed. Meanwhile, Christmas is postponed.
Dr Angelique Coetzee, Chair of the South African Medical Association, on Omicron:
Good luck D&M +1.
ALP members wont be working for the voice because its against ALP party rules to work for another party in a contest that the ALP is running in.
Sorry for double post , peeps!
The ousting of Ryan and Dyer as former ALP members might backfire on the Liberals because for Ryan to win Kooyong she needs a tight preference flow from the ALP and Greens and many ALP and Green supporters were unsure if she was a Liberal in disguise and Boothby is a marginal and the Liberals only won 45% primary last time so the seat is shaping up as a real contest.
Kailas Wild Koala
It is actually your personal responsibility to put an end to the Morrison gov at the next election.
Whichever marketing team came up with this line should be shot to the fucking moon. #auspol
What’s a little harm in ‘shaking and baking’ lol
Abit of meth here, and bit of random powder there.
Japan resumes death penalty.
I guess Shake’N’Bake is a US thing, but it’s still weird the way everyone goes straight to the drug reference instead of the chicken.
PS – Oven Fry is way better.
There was some suggestion that shake n bake is a basketball term but i’ve never heard it used in basketball.
“Shake and Bake” may well come to be the much derided slogan that “Moving Forward” came to be.
“Shake and bake” probably has no meaning, at least when Morrison is using it.
He’s likely using it for a couple of reasons:
. He, or his focus group and media team, thinks it sounds good
. It sounds like he’s doing something (Action Man Scott is Shaking and Baking), without him actually having to commit to doing anything specific
. It makes it sound like there’s a plan, whereas all he has is a slogan
. The focus will be on this empty slogan rather than the empty suite. We all get distracted by this and what’s really happening doesn’t get reported.
He could just as easily be saying “rocking and rolling” or “lock and load”.
“Shake ‘n Bake” is a prepared bread crumb and spice mixture that allows you to pretend you can cook (for a while, at least)
It’s become a term applied to any quick and dirty technique or solution applied to what is usually regarded as a complex task, requiring expertise and skill.
Just as any idiot can see how to beat Omicron (Morrison Solution: just “avoid mosh pits” and then who needs hospitals?), this is Morrison telling us that repairing complex, trillion dollar economies is as easy as opening the packet and applying the breadcrumbs.
It’s is his way of saying that all these acadrmics, scientists, engineers, business people, unions, economists, institutes of this and that etc. are over analysing the problem. Just stick with Shake ‘n Bake Scotty and he’ll show us how to fix things up. Any Daggy Dad can run a country.
When it comes to Scott Morrison, I just want to stick with the slogan,
Put a fork in him, he’s done.’
What I love about Australia is the way the Coalition haven’t fully muzzled all lobby groups by devising legislative ways to shut them up, like the Not For profit charities. So that those outside their purview, like the Doctors Associations, who still have a loud voice, begin to fight back against government edicts as soon as they issue them:
I reiterate what I said last night. People expect governments to manage crises such as that which we’re experiencing now. Not patronisingly tell us it’s up to us to deal like SfM has done, or shrug your shoulders and look away like the NSW govt has done.
The prime minister is always a day late and a dollar short, while Dom is epitomising the ‘let them eat cake’ attitude.
Unions are on the wagon too.
I was stopped at traffic lights driving home last night and there was a hairdresser on the street corner that you could see into. None of the staff or customers that I could see were wearing masks. All it would take is one of them to have Covid and there’s a few more people likely infected. Clearly ‘personal responsibility’ edicts don’t permeate to everyone.
I bet if the government get back in, they’ve got some juicy union busting legislation up their sleeves they’re not telling anyone about. They don’t like being told what to do. By anyone.
And, ‘just avoid mosh pits’, sounds soooo 90s. 🙄 So lame. People don’t mosh in dance clubs, which is where most kids go these days. Or to festivals, where they have lots of room to dance. Though I imagine Morrison might be trying to appeal to the Metal Heads who drive utes and are Tradies. Which is entirely predictable too.