Unless Roy Morgan is feeling ambitious, we’re unlikely to see new polling until mid-to-late January, although The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns immediately after Christmas. If breakdowns are your game, Essential Research now provides a mother lode of them for all its polling going back the start of 2020, with voting intention broken down by (mainland) state, gender, age cohort, work status and region (categorised as inner metro, outer metro, provincial and rural). With the availability of this data, it will become worth my while to again provide state-level polling trends in BludgerTrack, as was done before the 2019 election. So stay tuned for that. For the time being, Essential’s state and gender results are now included in my poll data archive.
A few other polling morsels to report:
• The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania snuck out last week without me noticing. It found little change on the last poll in August, with the Liberals steady on 49%, Labor down two to 26% and the Greens steady on 13%, which in turn differed little from the March election result of Liberal 48.7%, Labor 28.2% and Greens 12.4%. Peter Gutwein’s 59-28 lead over Rebecca White as preferred premier is likewise hardly changed from 59-29 last time. The poll was conducted November 28 to December 5 from a sample of 1000.
• JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey on issue salience. Ratings for the government’s performance across a range of 20 issues are down across the board by zero to five points since July, with defence, security and terrorism and immigration remaining its strongest suits and cost of living and environment/climate change its weakest. Among many findings about COVID-19, the federal government is deemed to have performed well by 40% and poorly by 28%, while state and territory governments in aggregate are on 60% and 12% respectively, with both maintaining downward trends from a peak late last year. Cost of living and health are rated effectively equal as the issue the government should be most focused on, with 59% and 58% respectively including them among five choices out of a list of 20. The survey was conducted November 22 to November 24 from a sample of 1000.
• Recommended reading: Kevin Bonham on “the overrated impact of party preferencing decisions” and Alan Kohler on the Australian Electoral Commission.
PaulTu @ #1455 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 7:15 pm
Hasn’t it occurred to him that the people who are prepared to go along to the focus groups he’s obviously parroting, are the same ones who didn’t mind getting into a closed room together? All the rest declined to come along, decided to stay home and be safe.
You mean like this zoomster ?
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/manly-daily/zali-steggalls-campaign-manager-anthony-reed-is-revealed-as-a-labor-operative/news-story/7ac95e987fa293b365e4d8bfa90e5301
Lars
And you’re pointing to one of the Liberal party’s failures.
If they had any sense at all, people like Allegra Spender would not only have been recruited as branch members, but would have been trained up to be eventual candidates.
It doesn’t happen because the Liberals don’t (apparently) ‘see’ women as potential MPs and don’t invest in them.
Nearly all the Voices candidates would, in a party which took women seriously, be Liberal candidates.
Lars
Not much point making a cutting point by linking to an article only subscribers can access.
The fact you can access it says a lot about your intellectual rigour.
yabba
I bloody well hope so.
I think your right zoomster.
Good candidates who a few generations ago would have been signed up by the 2 party duopoly are steering clear of them.
Lars
Voices is a Liberal problem.
It’s okay. I scrolled back. It was a Taylormade aside.
SHP
If the Greens could successfully direct prefs away from Labor, they would. They’ve done so in WA, NSW and the NT in recent elections. They cost Labor a seat in the Upper House at the recent election by sending prefs to the completely worthless excuse for a Party, Legalise Cannabis. They are very substantial beneficiaries of prefs from Labor (in Senate contests) but you’d never know it from listening to their endless sanctimonious whinging about Labor.
They utterly detest Labor. Absolutely and completely despise Labor.
Their Labor-hostile campaigning helps the LNP. Period.
Lisel von Trapp
“How many ALP staffers are “on loan” to “voices of..” just to help with letterboxing and the like – I suspect we are about to find that out too.”
I suspect we are. Have no fear, a crack team of sleuths is being deployed by News Corp to determine the TRUE motivation and affiliations of these so-called “Voices” candidates. Detective Chief Inspector Credlin will leave no stone unturned. Each candidate will have a dirt file… I mean dossier, that will make for very interesting reading!
This stuff about ‘voices’ candidates having ALP connections – that’s their problem.
if Labor people on this site and, much more significantly, elsewhere get worked up by this slime balling, it will just support the fake Liberal contention that they are ‘Labor’ fronts.
They are a problem for the Liberals, because they are standing in Liberal seats. Labor needs to just focus on its own votes and let the Teals play out as they like in the various seats where they are standing.
I repeat – they are a Liberal problem, not a Labor problem. Let the Liberals slime them and let them defend themselves. If they are smart, they will turn it back on the Libs to show what a bunch of slimy spies they are to attack the person not the issue. If they are not smart, then it’s business as usual.
zoomster @ #1503 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 9:03 pm
And then be challenging Labor for gender parity in parliament.
Speaking of which, Dom Perrottet had a swearing in for his new Ministry today. Of course he was so proud of the number of women in his cabinet ( 1 more than Gladys, woop de do). So, a journalist who can do maths asked him if he was happy with that? Of course he was! Then the journalist pointed out that it’s still only about 1/3 of the Ministry and men make up the other 2/3. 😐
Lars
Besides, your contention was that Labor staffers – that is, people employed by Labor – were working for Voices.
Someone who is a Labor member working for Voices is a nothing burger.
Sydney are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak among their playing group and football department, disrupting Christmas plans during the official off-season period for players.
The exact number of Swans players affected by the outbreak is still being determined. Channel Seven reported that at least 10 Swans were caught up in the drama following a boat cruise late last week.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/afl/swans-hit-by-covid-19-outbreak-on-eve-of-christmas-20211221-p59jem.html
Kakuru @ #1510 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 9:09 pm
You know it!
The solution to the Green problem for Labor is to withhold prefs from them in the Senate.
That would soon enough restore the plurality.
Kakuru says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 9:09 pm
_________________________
So your upset about News Corp?
After all the work done by K.Rudd setting up a royal commission, Labor ruled it out – so clearly Labor has decided to live and let live.
Seems like there are no buyers for your conspiracy theory – except on here perhaps?
zoomster
“Voices is a Liberal problem.”
Which is why the Liberal Party, IPA, News Corp, and Sky After Dark (those four being almost coterminous circles of a Venn diagram) are all shitting themselves. The ‘Voices’ may turn out to be a fizzer – but the Libs are seriously irked at having to throw serious money into blue-ribbon seats.
The Libs don’t mind it when squillionaires like Gina Rinehart and Clive Palmer lend them a helping hand. But when Simon Holmes a Court decides to back another horse, suddenly it’s a crime against humanity.
Cat
I was both surprised and mad as hell to find people criticising you for “being on here all day” or whatever they said exactly.
People like that assume so much about others on the net, that is a given. But to bag someone for spending alot of time on here is just rediculous. (A) it is none of their business and (B) social isolation can be an ugly beast to live with whether it is voluntary or involuntary.
We all have reasons for being here on this site and get different things from it. Yours, which are nobody else’s business anyway, are just as legitimate and welcome as any one else. What cowardly tossers those people are to be nasty and ignorant anonymously on the net.
PS> I love women with a bit of spunk and unafraid to speak their mind. Duh, who would have thunk it .. a woman with mind of her own who can tell me to go mate with myself when I deserve it. I married one. I welcome and read all your posts Cheers.
Have just had a Covid -19 alert. “…..Unless otherwise advised by NSW Health, you must monitor for symptoms. If you are unwell, get a COVID-19 test.”
We’re only a couple of Km from our testing station so will be there at 7.50 am for the 8am testing…at least that’s the plan!
We always wear a mask, socially distance and I only bought a couple of things. Plus had my booster the day before though I know it takes 14 days to really take effect.
Lisel von Trapp
“Seems like there are no buyers for your conspiracy theory – except on here perhaps?”
You must have me confused with someone else. I am not K. Rudd.
EB says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 9:20 pm
Cat
PS> I love women with a bit of spunk and unafraid to speak their mind. Duh, who would have thunk it .. a woman with mind of her own who can tell me to go mate with myself when I deserve it. I married one. I welcome and read all your posts Cheers.
__________________
Be very careful. TPOF has been courting C@t for years and he is a notorious anger management case.
Nath, that shit’s not necessary. If you don’t want to be called a troll by others on here, try not to act like one.
I think the chances of the ALP expending any of its scant resources on helping non-Labor candidates get elected is pretty bloody low.
Look forward to a candidates debate where Tim Wilson calls Zoe Daniels out as a Labor-Green stooge.
Likewise Jo Dyer and Alleghra Spender.
Josh wouldn’t dare be seen on the same stage as Monique Ryan.
Just a general word of advice. nath and LVT enjoy stirring up trouble, presumably for the sake of their own amusement. Classic shits and giggles. Don’t let them rile you up. Play them with a dead bat.
Asha says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 9:29 pm
I think the chances of the ALP expending any of it’s scant resources on helping non-Labor candidates get elected is pretty bloody low.
__________________________
Yes of course, no doubt Albo will also put out a press release making clear there is no connection between the ALP and “voices of” to clear up any misunderstandings.
nath @ #1522 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 9:23 pm
Be very careful. TPOF has been courting C@t for years and he is a notorious anger management case.
—
That kind of crap is why I should have dumped you in the block bin ages ago Nath. In you go.
poroti
Chile is my second home, and I was really heartened by this result. Especially given the far-right opponent (and in Chile far-right means exactly that), whose father actually was a Nazi.
Nosotros veremos (we will see), but Chile has had left-leaning governments for most of the time since they eased the Pinochet family out of power.
After frequently visiting and living in Chile from 1994 onwards, I think Al Norte has decided it is better to invest in Chile than prop up a murderous regime.
And the EU and Japan invested heavily in China once Pinochet lost his grip – an amazing social transformation.
And Chile has used its time to good effect since the (looooong) end of Pinochet and company.
They have invested heavily in science and education particular in astronomy (there is nothing like the Andes for astronomy on the Southern Hemisphere), engineering and earth sciences (all those earthquakes).
I think the presidencies of all-round right wing dick Piñera were basically a reaction to the fact that “the Left” had been in power too long, and had got flabby.
Anyway, lovely to see Gabriel Boric get up. His Alma Mata, Universidad de Chile, is where I have often spent sabbaticals in Chile.
Dyer running in Boothby was 100% a Labor problem. Labor can win with a small swing. The leak looks like a hit job from within Labor.
I noticed Dr Scott Morrison on the ABC TV News tonight revealing the simple solution to avoiding infection by the Omicron Variant: take personal responsibility and don’t hang out in mosh pits. All delivered with that cocky, raised-eyebrow “Everyone who’s not a complete moron knows this” look on his face. Now WHY didn’t our epidemiological experts think of that? Problem solved!
The keys is to get government out of our lives. “Changing the culture” will defeat Omicron, where the world’s smartest doctors and it’s most brilliant vaccine achievements have failed.
And if we catch it and end up dying, there’s always Heaven waiting for us. Just ask Scotty and Dom.
Meanwhile, the Doherty Institute will see Brad Hazzard’s 25,000 infections per day by the end of January, and raise him 200,000 per day with the same deadline, if Omicron action is delayed much longer.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/omicron-cases-could-hit-200-000-a-day-next-year-without-tougher-restrictions-doherty-modelling-warns-20211221-p59ja0.html
Have just had a Covid -19 alert.”. ……..Unless otherwise advised by NSW Health, you must monitor for symptoms. If you are unwell, get a COVID-19 test.
We’re only a couple of Km from our testing station so will be there at 7.50 am for the 8am testing…at least that’s the plan!
We always wear a mask, socially distance and I only bought a couple of things. Plus had my booster the day before though I know it takes 14 days to really take effect.
bakunin @ #1530 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 9:07 pm
I don’t know if there is any validity to that allegation but I definitely agree that it’s probably Labor who’d benefit more from Dyer crashing and burning than the Liberals.
I think Albo will quite rightly not touch this one. If questioned about it, a simple “No” should suffice.
Sure, being associated with the ALP could potentially be damaging to the Voices independents. But being associated with the Voices independents is very unlikely to be damaging to the ALP. This is a case where Labor can sit back, put their feet up, and watch the Libs and the Indis fight it out. Worst case scenario is that the Coalition retains a bunch of safe seats that Labor weren’t going to win anyway.
I thought it was the Kooyong candidate who had her Labor affiliation leaked, not Boothby’s.
Asha @ #1535 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 9:43 pm
Both Jo Dyer and Monique Ryan.
Ah, gotcha.
Wat Tyler @ #1533 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 9:40 pm
It was probably the Liberals because they thought that releasing the information would damage both Labor and the Independent.
C@tmomma @ #1538 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 9:18 pm
That’s a fair point too.
Douglas and Milko at 9:36 pm
I knew nothing about him, still don’t, but I was hoping he would win after reading about his opponent. I take it Chile’s ‘atmosphere’ is what first attracted you ? 🙂
Wise words from Tim Dunlop presenting the counter argument to Scott Morrison and Dominic Perrottet’s laissez faire attitude to Covid:
Meanwhile, the Doherty Institute will see Brad Hazzard’s 25,000 infections per day by the end of January, and raise him 200,000 per day with the same deadline, if Omicron action is delayed much longer.
NSW in January 🙂
I reckon tomorrow’s national cabinet meeting wasn’t “called” by Morrison at all, other than in a procedural sensw
I reckon a number of Premiers have held a gun to his head and indicated they will make sure he gets the blame unless Perrottet is brought to heel
Quasar,
Yep, I got pinged with one of these a few days ago. I have been very careful, but my mum drags me all sorts of places.
This morning I took mum to get her booster – Pfizer after 2 x AZ. But while I was sitting there with her in the doctors’ surgery, I started to feel unwell – just head cold stuff, and dropped her at home and went for a COVID test.
A couple of things:
1) The lovely doctor who gave mum her booster asked us to sign the petition to get governments to bring back mask wearing inside. she told us that although the NSW government was saying that hospitals were coping fine, she knew this was not the case as the practice was being referred people who tested positive for COVID for management, who in other circumstances would be hospitalised.
2) I dropped mum at home and went to Redfern Health centre for a COVID test. I am not feeling that bad, but given we are about to catch up with family on Friday / Saturday, I thought it would be negligent of me not to get a test.
3) Test is done – lovely staff, and I am in awe of them for exposing themselves so regularly to the plague. While I was waiting in line (2.25 hours) I wondered if my symptoms were worth getting tested for, and if I was wasting their time. Then the man in the seat next to me described his symptoms – similar to mine but milder – and he had been a close contact with someone 5 days ago, and tested positive in a RAT this morning. Very glad I went for the test.
4) I am feeling worse tonight, but that may just be the dehydration of waiting in the strong sun for 2 hours in the line to get tested. Or anxiety, or even the fact that I should never have mentioned to mum that I was getting a COVID test. She has been ringing me every hour during the day explaining why I could not possibly have COVID. I eventually realised that she assumes if I have COVID I will die. so, I have been able to assure her that even if I have COVID, being double vaxxed, I will probably only have mild but unpleasant symptoms.
Also, thanks to RHWombat who explained that the news.com article was worthless – of course I have all those vague symptoms – so does anyone with hay fever, especially mixed with a bit of dehydration.
And thanks Itza for explaining what a “night sweat” really is. I will discount waking up at 0300 hrs felling hot and bothered because the temperature in the bedroom is 26 degrees C.
Anyway, I will let you know the result.
I really hope I am not the first regular poster to come down with the plague, but there does seem to be a lot of it about.
Bakunin
Maybe, maybe not. For Labor, as long as the Liberal is ousted, they win.
Edit – also, I really cannot see Labor winning Boothby.
Considering that the UAP is just an off shoot of the LNP and is funded by a pro and former and LNP business man, it is kind of funny to see the LNP make a big deal over some of the independents pasts party affiliations, but hey we know the LNP has no shame!
Clearly the Liberals are trying to paint Voices as a Popular Front. It will be interesting to see if they can find more former Labor peoples among them.
So, hold on, are Labor terrified of the Voices independents or secretly backing them? I’m confused.
“Nearly all the Voices candidates would, in a party which took women seriously, be Liberal candidates.”
That zoom, is a good point that the Libs are militantly missing. 🙂
ajm @ #1543 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 10:02 pm
Good point. However, to my eyes Perrottet seems like a Labrador puppy. All energy and misdirected exuberance until they get properly trained and with experience.