Yuletide polling detritus

A Tasmanian state poll, issue salience and COVID management polling, and a voting intention data dump from Essential Research.

Unless Roy Morgan is feeling ambitious, we’re unlikely to see new polling until mid-to-late January, although The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns immediately after Christmas. If breakdowns are your game, Essential Research now provides a mother lode of them for all its polling going back the start of 2020, with voting intention broken down by (mainland) state, gender, age cohort, work status and region (categorised as inner metro, outer metro, provincial and rural). With the availability of this data, it will become worth my while to again provide state-level polling trends in BludgerTrack, as was done before the 2019 election. So stay tuned for that. For the time being, Essential’s state and gender results are now included in my poll data archive.

A few other polling morsels to report:

• The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania snuck out last week without me noticing. It found little change on the last poll in August, with the Liberals steady on 49%, Labor down two to 26% and the Greens steady on 13%, which in turn differed little from the March election result of Liberal 48.7%, Labor 28.2% and Greens 12.4%. Peter Gutwein’s 59-28 lead over Rebecca White as preferred premier is likewise hardly changed from 59-29 last time. The poll was conducted November 28 to December 5 from a sample of 1000.

• JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey on issue salience. Ratings for the government’s performance across a range of 20 issues are down across the board by zero to five points since July, with defence, security and terrorism and immigration remaining its strongest suits and cost of living and environment/climate change its weakest. Among many findings about COVID-19, the federal government is deemed to have performed well by 40% and poorly by 28%, while state and territory governments in aggregate are on 60% and 12% respectively, with both maintaining downward trends from a peak late last year. Cost of living and health are rated effectively equal as the issue the government should be most focused on, with 59% and 58% respectively including them among five choices out of a list of 20. The survey was conducted November 22 to November 24 from a sample of 1000.

• Recommended reading: Kevin Bonham on “the overrated impact of party preferencing decisions” and Alan Kohler on the Australian Electoral Commission.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,588 comments on “Yuletide polling detritus”

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  2. Allegra could follow her party-jumping grandfather…

    ‘Menzies resigned as UAP leader in October 1941, and Spender was an unsuccessful candidate for the leadership. He was eliminated on the first ballot, with Billy Hughes subsequently defeating Allan McDonald by a narrow margin. Spender was also a candidate for the UAP leadership in 1943, when Hughes resigned. He was again eliminated on the first ballot, polling only a handful of votes.[1] In February 1944, the UAP voted to withdraw its members from the Advisory War Council. Spender refused to resign from the council, and was expelled from the UAP as a result on 23 February 1944. The party reportedly voted 21 to 5 in favour of an expulsion motion moved by Robert Menzies – who had been largely responsible for the creation of the council as a nonpartisan body. John Curtin subsequently sent Spender a letter thanking him for staying on.[7] Billy Hughes was expelled in similar circumstances two months later.[8]

    Spender sat as an independent after being expelled from the UAP. He was approached to join the Liberal Democratic Party, a small UAP breakaway, but declined.[9] In May 1945, Spender became a financial member of the Mosman branch of the Liberal Party of Australia.[10] However, he was not admitted to the parliamentary Liberal Party until 13 September 1945, when the Advisory War Council was abolished. Hughes was also re-admitted at that point.[11]

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Percy_Spender

  3. I’m noticing some Murdoch goons feeling chipper, claiming that ScoMoNo has ‘tapped into the mood’ by repeating the personal responsibility line with regards taking public health measures.

    Too much time in the plush soirées of the well off..

  5. sprocket_says:
    Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 7:11 pm
    “I’m noticing some Murdoch goons feeling chipper, claiming that ScoMoNo has ‘tapped into the mood’ by repeating the personal responsibility line with regards taking public health measures.”

    Not the mood I am hearing in SA.
    There are too many fools!!

  6. If there’s one thing young people lack it’s personal responsibility. Scumo’s just appealing to all the old humbugs that think young people should stay at home & help mum till they marry.

  7. mikehilliard_says:
    Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 7:17 pm
    “If there’s one thing young people lack it’s personal responsibility. Scumo’s just appealing to all the old humbugs that think young people should stay at home & help mum till they marry.”

    Young people are bullet proof!
    Didn’tyaknow?

  8. mikehilliard at 7:17 pm
    So many lols that it comes from this guy

    “I don’t hold a hose, mate, and I don’t sit in the control room.”

  9. I am quite happy to admit that PB is part of my community because there is usually some conversation to drop in on most days/evenings.

  10. Agree, Lizzie. It’s also part of my community. Read those posts I enjoy and know which ones to scroll past.
    Does anyone know what happened to Cud Chewer?

  11. I think the “personal responsibility” could be a winner for the Liberals.

    Just think of the money that could be saved if people were, say, made “personally responsible” for their health care.

    No need for police, fire or ambulance services if people were “personally responsible” for catching the crooks who stole from them or bashed them. Or if they were “personally responsible” for saving their homes from fires and transporting themselves to hospital.

    And what about business? Why should companies be required to provide a safe work place. get rid of all that OH and S red tape and make workers “personally responsible”. And no workers comp either.

    As long as the Nats can ensure the farmers aren’t “personally responsible” for funding their own drought and flood and bushfire recovery plans.

    “I don’t hold a hose ” was probably telling us more about Morrison than we realised at the time.

  12. I think making allowances for people who spend their whole days here is the compassionate thing to do.

    There are however, a few commenters who could do more lurking than commenting at times.

  14. If what I’m hearing from people, including my Lib-supporting family is any indication, the govt has got this personal responsibility thing way wrong.

    People elect governments to manage crises such as this pandemic, not shrug their shoulders and tell us to pull our heads in.

  16. And the health minister whining about ‘tourism testing’ clogging up testing clinics. What on earth did they expect? Nagging on other states like Qld to reopen and celebrating the reopening of international travel, of course people were going to make holiday plans for the summer!

    I can remember Dom, Brad and the useless NSW govt urging people to get out and celebrate the end of lockdown. Now it’s all throwing their hands in the air and shrieking personal responsibility.

  17. Kakadu and sprockets, what’s the evidence of Allegra spenders liberal pedigree?

    Surely your not judging an independent professional woman based on her elderly fathers political allegiances or that her now deceased mother was at one time claimed to be Billie Snedden’s paramour?

  21. bc @ #1428 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 5:13 pm

    Aqualung says Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 4:59 pm

    Watching the news and the campaign for skin cancer. Sans Scotty thankfully.
    Can I encourage slip, slop, slap and get to your doctor asap if you notice anything weird.
    I had a spindle cell cancer removed my cranium last year.
    I now have a crater and skin transplant scar on my leg as a reminder.
    That was last year and I did delay due to the virus. I wonder how many other people did the same.
    Anyway the 12 month check was ok.
    Oh and wear a hat outdoors.

    I’ve now started wearing one of these https://sundayafternoons.com/products/ultra-adventure-hat and I’m really happy with the protection.

    That looks really good. Think I might get one

  24. C@tmomma @ #1419 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 5:05 pm

    For Omicron severity (risk of severe illness/hospitalization %) to be same as NSW/Vic winter Delta waves—driven by unvaccinated admissions—it would need to have same intrinsic virulence & 2-dose vaccination to have zero effectiveness vs severe illness. Extremely unlikely.

    Yes to that. But the question is, does it? Have “the same intrinsic virulence”, I mean.

    Of course the Omicron outbreak is likely to be proportionately less severe, because it’s running over a better defended population. But that’s different from declaring Omicron itself less severe. There are two independent questions:

    1. How effective are vaccines/boosters?
    2. How dangerous is Omicron to an unvaccinated person, compared to Delta infecting that same person?

  26. Quasar says:
    Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 7:33 pm

    This guy is nuts.

    as patients were being treated with IVM in Sydney and Melbourne with the impressive results mentioned above, the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) made an extraordinary move to shut down the prescribing of IVM by frontline doctors for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19. The TGA has form, as it made a similar ruling on hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), the other re-purposed off-patent drug shown to be effective in treating COVID-19. Importantly, the reasons given by the TGA to justify its decision were not correct.

    This whole article is fraud basically.

    He gave no proof of it working just a “It’s working with impressive results”. Both drugs were advocated by nutso Donald Trump and his insane band of lunatics.

    Further more, there is now fake versions of the drug:
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-14/tga-issues-warning-about-counterfeit-ivermectin-covid/100699024

    Finally:
    https://theconversation.com/a-major-ivermectin-study-has-been-withdrawn-so-what-now-for-the-controversial-drug-164627

    The other article he wrote here, obviously paid by Craig Kelly:
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/i-m-the-virus-expert-cited-by-mp-craig-kelly-vaccines-are-critical-but-he-s-not-all-wrong-20210204-p56zfc.html

  29. So the actual policy of the Federal radical LNP Govt is to trust the risk analysis of young adults, including young males whose risk analysis is so great there is a death spike for them to survive in times without covid. And that is just young males when you add the 100’000’s of male and female boomer karen’s who’ve lived their whole lives based on deep selfishness and contempt for their community, they’ll be at the cricket without a mask even if they have symptoms, one can only assume the PM maintains a strong provirus antilife stance.

  33. zoomster
    Someone found Monique Ryan’s ALP membership from way back. And it didn’t take long for Jo Dyer’s former ALP membership to be in the Advertiser. Who’s doing the research? Liberal Party dirt machine I guess.

  34. I asked my ridiculously conservative brother-in-law about Spender and her electoral appeal and all I got was everything bad about her father. There’s one vote for Sharma, as usual for all the wrong reasons.

  39. Steve777
    WA police have other priorities at this time of the year 😆

    WA Police Force@WA_Police
    ·3h
    Just checked if you can arrest people who say Die Hard isn’t a Christmas movie… Turns out you can’t’

  40. And while we’re talking about Labor turncoats…why is it lauded in the media when a Labor rat becomes a Conservative, like Gary Johns, Mark Latham, Martin Ferguson, Kathy Jackson (hmm, whatever happened to her court case?), or Kent Johns, but if it is found that someone has had a previous ALP membership but hasn’t gone the Full Monty and gone over to the Liberals permanently, but joined and then unjoined themselves from the Liberal Party, that’s a political mortal sin?

  41. Bludging Bloos says:
    Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 6:38 pm
    SHP

    I am not among those about whom you speculate.

    1. I do not hate anyone, including the Greens.
    2. The Greens do not compete for heartland voters, for whom they exhibit little more than contempt.
    3. Labor is not “compromised” by its policies, which are aimed at winning the support of the electorate. There is no shame involved in seeking the support of voters in a democracy.
    4. The Greens are not a mirror for Labor.
    5. In relation to asylum-seekers, the Greens are pro-trafficker. They provide political cover for gangsters…for those who seek financials gain from the desperate. Rather than our admiration, the Greens deserve to be rebuked. They are collaborators with Abbott, Morrison, Dutton and the mafia.
    6. The Greens are unreliable counter-parties. They will not deal with Labor in good faith. They seek only to disable and defeat Labor. Never forget that. The best thing for Labor is to avoid them at all costs.
    7. The Greens do not “swap” prefs. They use their prefs to defeat Labor whenever they can.
    8. The Greens do not hold any high ground…any ideals for which Labor might strive.

    This is the very straight-forward truth of the electoral game.
    ______________________________________________________
    Bloos, you and I are entitled to our opinions and interpretations of fact, but not to our own individual facts.
    I am critical of the Greens in many ways, but they demonstrably have not used their preferences against Labor. Come on now. About 85% of Greens preferences flow to Labor and the Greens always preference the ALP above the Coalition. How many Liberal MPs owe their seats to Greens preferences?
    As to your assertion the Greens don’t compete for Labor Party votes, which party do you think held the seat of Melbourne for a century before Adam Bandt won it in 2010? The Greens have also targeted the seats of Cooper, Wills, Fremantle, Grayndler and Sydney – all traditional Labor seats.
    The point is not to mischaracterise the Greens as some sort of rightwing outfit, but to assess how effective their approach and policies are. In many ways, not so effective at all, in my opinion. But I am not going to make up my own narrative because it suits my argument.
    You are one of the people I was thinking of, when I said some Labor supporters hate the Greens.
    You obviously hate them with such a passion that you cannot think rationally or even factually about them.

  42. El Norte will nae be amused. Destabilisation starts in 5,4,3,2…….. ?
    .
    .
    Left-Wing Millennial Gabriel Boric, 35, Is Voted Chile’s Youngest President And Vows To Tax The ‘Super Rich’

    Leftist candidate Gabriel Boric has won Chile’s presidential election to become the country’s youngest ever leader.

    Mr Boric told supporters he would look after democracy, promising curbs on Chile’s neoliberal free market economy.

    In what was expected to be a tight race, the 35-year-old former student protest leader defeated his far-right rival José Antonio Kast by 10 points.

    He will lead a country that has been rocked in recent years by mass protests against inequality and corruption.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-59715941

  44. a r @ #1472 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 8:08 pm

    C@tmomma @ #1419 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 5:05 pm

    For Omicron severity (risk of severe illness/hospitalization %) to be same as NSW/Vic winter Delta waves—driven by unvaccinated admissions—it would need to have same intrinsic virulence & 2-dose vaccination to have zero effectiveness vs severe illness. Extremely unlikely.

    Yes to that. But the question is, does it? Have “the same intrinsic virulence”, I mean.

    Of course the Omicron outbreak is likely to be proportionately less severe, because it’s running over a better defended population. But that’s different from declaring Omicron itself less severe. There are two independent questions:

    1. How effective are vaccines/boosters?
    2. How dangerous is Omicron to an unvaccinated person, compared to Delta infecting that same person?

    Hi a r,
    Thanks for replying to this. I can only say that the Patient Zero of Omicron (though I saw today that researchers have found that it existed in Europe before the Immunocompromised man in Southern Africa led to its detection), was unvaccinated, had had Omicron they believe for at least a month and only presented to a doctor after it had mutated over 20 times but not killed him. Still hasn’t killed him as far as I know.

    That tends to suggest that it is less dangerous to an unvaccinated person than Delta, which I think would have killed him (some of the Drs here would have a better grip on this) and that vaccines, while effective against it, aren’t the sole determinant of survival and the body’s immune system was coping with it until it mutated a bridge too far.

  45. “ACT is introducing mandatory masks indoors from midnight tonight (except in dwellings).”

    ***

    That’s exactly what all the states should be doing immediately. Makes me want to move back to Canberra to flee this terrible NSW gov! They really are the worst of the worst.

  46. Loris says:
    Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 8:24 pm
    zoomster
    Someone found Monique Ryan’s ALP membership from way back. And it didn’t take long for Jo Dyer’s former ALP membership to be in the Advertiser. Who’s doing the research? Liberal Party dirt machine I guess.
    _____________________
    How many ALP staffers are “on loan” to “voices of..” just to help with letterboxing and the like – I suspect we are about to find that out too.

  48. zoomster @ #1445 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 6:59 pm

    I think making allowances for people who spend their whole days here is the compassionate thing to do.

    When I was literally unable to move, and thus unable to leave my home, being able to come here for a chat kept me connected, however tenuously, to the outside world.

    I’m thus very wary about condemning someone for being here all the time.

    It’s very probably and literally a lifeline for them.

    Exactly. If only you knew why I’m here so much. For the intellectual stimulation, mainly, the camaraderie, and because I don’t feel as lonely as I would otherwise (so shoot me, I’m a people person). Also my physical condition doesn’t allow me to go out as much as I’d like. Though I try. 🙂

    Now, could I be so bold as to ask you a couple of questions? You don’t have to answer them.
    1. Were the statements/observations that you commented on (plus viperous additional comments I imagine), made about me?
    2. And, if so, by whom?

    Thanks. 🙂

  49. Asha says:
    Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 8:20 pm
    Lars, do you know what the word “pedigree” means?
    _______________________________
    Yes Asha – and I think your using it in the lineage sense which was my point.

    You can have pedigree in the sense of Ryan and Dyer have ALP pedigree of being former members or you have Liberal pedigree in the sense that the sins of the father are imputed to you , a la Allegra Spender or in the case of many of our MP’s you can have both in the sense that dad was an MP and you too have a background in the Party – like say Greg Hunt

  50. Lars

    Given that the Voices seats are currently held by Liberal MPs, I don’ think any.

    I’m in a Voices seat, remember. We don’t help them out, although they seem to assume we should.

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