Unless Roy Morgan is feeling ambitious, we’re unlikely to see new polling until mid-to-late January, although The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns immediately after Christmas. If breakdowns are your game, Essential Research now provides a mother lode of them for all its polling going back the start of 2020, with voting intention broken down by (mainland) state, gender, age cohort, work status and region (categorised as inner metro, outer metro, provincial and rural). With the availability of this data, it will become worth my while to again provide state-level polling trends in BludgerTrack, as was done before the 2019 election. So stay tuned for that. For the time being, Essential’s state and gender results are now included in my poll data archive.
A few other polling morsels to report:
• The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania snuck out last week without me noticing. It found little change on the last poll in August, with the Liberals steady on 49%, Labor down two to 26% and the Greens steady on 13%, which in turn differed little from the March election result of Liberal 48.7%, Labor 28.2% and Greens 12.4%. Peter Gutwein’s 59-28 lead over Rebecca White as preferred premier is likewise hardly changed from 59-29 last time. The poll was conducted November 28 to December 5 from a sample of 1000.
• JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey on issue salience. Ratings for the government’s performance across a range of 20 issues are down across the board by zero to five points since July, with defence, security and terrorism and immigration remaining its strongest suits and cost of living and environment/climate change its weakest. Among many findings about COVID-19, the federal government is deemed to have performed well by 40% and poorly by 28%, while state and territory governments in aggregate are on 60% and 12% respectively, with both maintaining downward trends from a peak late last year. Cost of living and health are rated effectively equal as the issue the government should be most focused on, with 59% and 58% respectively including them among five choices out of a list of 20. The survey was conducted November 22 to November 24 from a sample of 1000.
• Recommended reading: Kevin Bonham on “the overrated impact of party preferencing decisions” and Alan Kohler on the Australian Electoral Commission.
It looks like the offenses only carry a penalty of a fine, so no risk of it being s44. Also given the speed courts move, it would be unlikely it would be finished in time anyway.
I doubt there’s a regulation, from memory the by-election just needs to be held ‘as soon as practicable’ and that gives the speaker some amount of wiggle room. In addition, by elections can’t be held after parliament is dissolved (so around 33 days before the election assuming minimum time) for obvious reasons.
In 1992, Phil Cleary got disqualified in November meaning a by election needed to be held in Wills, that wasn’t held before a general election in March 1993. More interested people could look at that case to see what happened to string it out for four months.
C@t
That’s just giving in to Scott and Josh.
Rex Douglas:
I’m pretty sure party memberships are public record.
Victoria @ #1393 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 5:09 pm
This reminds me of the Fisher state (SA) by-election in 2014, when the Liberals and right wingers complained that the independent candidate who had a strong shot at winning the seat had previously been an ALP member. They conveniently ignored the fact that one of the other independents running had previously sought Liberal preselection for the seat. My favourite hypocrisy was then Family First MP Robert Brokenshire leading the attack, even though Brokenshire himself was a former Liberal MP.
The end result: The Liberals got their wish – the independent didn’t win the seat. Labor did. A big Monkey’s Paw moment there!
Shock horror ! Voices of …. Is a Labor front operation ?
I cannot believe it !
Is it the Unity Party of the 20’s?
Morrison wants a culture of responsibility. As long as it does not apply to holding hoses, supplying vaccines on time, going on holidays during times of crisis, corrupting the grants process, buying elections… yadda, yadda, yadda.
poroti @ #1400 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 5:50 pm
The worst thing is that he’s not roundly called out on exactly that.
Australia is broken.
Nothing frightens a Liberal more than a woman. Nothing.
Asha @ #1403 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 5:50 pm
I wouldn’t discount the fossil fuel cartel looking after each other.
Sure as god made little apples
they’ll reduce third dose timing again, too slowly
they’ll reduce second dose timing again, too slowly
they’ll start to switch from reliance on PCR to RAT, because of predictable under resourcing
the supplies of any and/or all of the above will be flakey
who knew.
Boerwar @ #1408 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 5:53 pm
Especially if she is an environmentalist.
Poroti @ 4.47 pm, David and Libby look a formidable pair. Mark must be worried in WA.
I’ve joined the don’t say ‘booster’ say ‘third dose’ brigade.
ItzaDream @ #1408 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 5:55 pm
#strollout
Which now applies to RATs as well.
Of some interest. But what is a 130 degree slope?
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/dec/20/fast-furious-and-futuristic-extreme-e-drives-racing-forward
Scott Morrison wants a cult of personality. Like Donald Trump.
Any chance Moderna will decide to go full dose for the third dose, and will receive approval before the start of January? I guess not.
I would love to see what the LNP internal polling numbers are for those seats with voices candidates.
With all these high profile attacks on the Teals by the LNP heavies and even wheeling out Abbott they must be worried. Lets hope it continues and so they waste time and resources defending safe seats while coming across divisive and attacking those who advocate real action on climate.
I like “booster” because it always reminds me of this bit from the Simpsons:
https://youtu.be/CXW_O67MGS0
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 6:01 pm
Scott Morrison wants a cult of personality. Like Donald Trump.
____________
His personality does have a c, u and a t, but the 3rd letter isn’t an l.
Greg Dore Kirby Institute, UNSW Sydney: epidemiologist & infectious diseases physician; hepatitis C; hepatitis B; Covid; health & human rights for people who use drugs
@GregDore2
·
45s
For Omicron severity (risk of severe illness/hospitalization %) to be same as NSW/Vic winter Delta waves—driven by unvaccinated admissions—it would need to have same intrinsic virulence & 2-dose vaccination to have zero effectiveness vs severe illness. Extremely unlikely.
Dr Fumbles McStupid,
😉
zoomster @ #1367 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 5:07 pm
Does it matter?
Latest west wing thing ep, nails democrat strategists as the dumbest people in America, Labor strategists in Australia would be very competitive for the local title.
P1
No, you’re right, it’s a moot point.
Neither of them are going to get elected.
Everybody needs to hold a hose, mate (except me).
Which political journalist needs reality when you have this.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/dec/20/a-routine-morning-for-psycho-raab-50-press-ups-and-a-fumbled-interview
Aqualung says Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 4:59 pm
I’ve now started wearing one of these https://sundayafternoons.com/products/ultra-adventure-hat and I’m really happy with the protection.
zoomster @ #1425 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 6:12 pm
If you care about climate change, you should still give them your first and second preferences.
“Latest west wing thing ep, nails democrat strategists as the dumbest people in America, Labor strategists in Australia would be very competitive for the local title.”
Sure they can adopt Greens policy and get about 10% of the vote instead… brilliant!!
Lars
Allegra Spender has stronger ties to the Liberal Party than Monique Ryan has to the ALP.
P1
I can’t, I’m not in their electorate.
Past political party membership doesn’t guarantee they will support their former party because there might be a deep reason for why they split from that party. People jumped on PvO for suggesting the independents might fizzle but that is a real possibility but the best chances for the Teals to make gains look like Wentworth and Goldstein.
zoomster @ #1432 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 6:16 pm
Well, I hope you are giving Independents your first preference in the electorate you are in.
Rex Douglassays:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 4:52 pm
I think you should all meet Linda Seymour – Voices for Hughes candidate.
I think you’ll like her…
_____________________
Looks like she spends all day on Twitter which is worse than spending all day on PB.
Not exactly my cup of tea. I don’t like her.
bc @ #1428 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 6:13 pm
My hat of choice.
Purchased at Birdsville before the diagnosis.
P1
No, because Helen Haines doesn’t understand climate policy.
She focuses on domestic reductions alone and has a policy which would discourage investment in alternative energy.
She seems to believe that renewable energy companies should be forced to ‘give back’ to the community and would put in measures which would make investing in regional areas unattractive.
COVID in Gauteng province of South Africa (first major site for Omicron) looks like the fourth wave is in abatement with a a case peak the same as delta but hospitalisation rates about half of the delta wave. Deaths are 7% of those in the delta wave but yet to peak.
So, mixed news for Australia. It could mean that we could saturate hospitals if we reach double the case numbers of our delta wave. Looking very possible (BAD). But we may need a ten-fold increase in cases to have the same mortality numbers (GOOD).
NB:- Plenty of assumptions of course as populations aren’t equal in age, ethnicity, co-morbidities, vaccinations rates and past infection rates. Also ignoring sequelae such as long COVID and possible system pressure effects due to workforce isolation/burnout etc.
In the meantime, hold a hose as the PM doesn’t – get boosted and wear a mask.
Sir Henry Parkes says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 5:26 pm
Bludging Bloos says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 2:54 pm
a r says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 2:42 pm
Labor has absolutely no choice in this matter. If they are seen to be a parliamentary or legislative Trojan Horse for the Greens, they’re finished. The Greens of course are well aware of this, which is why they continually depict themselves as alt-Labor. They are trying to sabotage Labor. Labor will have to defeat the Greens as well as the LNP and other reactionaries. There is no alternative.
__________________________________________________________
I think some Labor people hate the Greens because the parties are sometimes in direct competition in what is regarded as traditional Labor heartland. Another reason is that the Greens hold up a mirror to Labor, sometimes showing it to be less than ideal, usually in regard to refugees and compromised policies on climate change.
Labor’s policies are often compromised because that is the way a party seeking government actually wins elections.
If the Greens were a serious contender for government, they too would be compromising their policies. I’d wager they would not be pressing for a 75% reduction in emissions.
The best approach is to aim for majority Labor government and deal with the Greens where it is necessary. Preference swapping and steering progressive legislation through the Senate are the most obvious examples.
The Greens’ usefulness is in maintaining our vision for the high ideals we’d like to achieve, while Labor’s task is to win government and work towards the ultimate realisation of those ideals.
SHP.
I am not among those about whom you speculate.
1. I do not hate anyone, including the Greens.
2. The Greens do not compete for heartland voters, for whom they exhibit little more than contempt.
3. Labor is not “compromised” by its policies, which are aimed at winning the support of the electorate. There is no shame involved in seeking the support of voters in a democracy.
4. The Greens are not a mirror for Labor.
5. In relation to asylum-seekers, the Greens are pro-trafficker. They provide political cover for gangsters…for those who seek financials gain from the desperate. Rather than our admiration, the Greens deserve to be rebuked. They are collaborators with Abbott, Morrison, Dutton and the mafia.
6. The Greens are unreliable counter-parties. They will not deal with Labor in good faith. They seek only to disable and defeat Labor. Never forget that. The best thing for Labor is to avoid them at all costs.
7. The Greens do not “swap” prefs. They use their prefs to defeat Labor whenever they can.
8. The Greens do not hold any high ground…any ideals for which Labor might strive.
This is the very straight-forward truth of the electoral game.
Perrottet assuring everyone that the number of infections were exactly as predicted, therefore it was all going to plan. Success!
Hard to understand this man.
Lisel von Trapp
“Shock horror ! Voices of …. Is a Labor front operation ?
I cannot believe it ! ”
No, it’s true! I saw it on Sky News!
Wait till Paul Murray and Peta Credlin hear about this! There’ll be hell to pay. Am I right?
People have to make allowances for Catcrank. This forum is her whole world. ( Note how often she posts.) She is also, like some others on here NQR, so please give her a little slack.
Perrottet is embarking on an experiment to see how COVID spreads with no regard to the wealth of scientific knowledge on the subject.
Sort of like throwing out the science of gravity & saying if I jump off this building I might float.
‘
WA Police Force
@WA_Police
·
3h
Just checked if you can arrest people who say Die Hard isn’t a Christmas movie… Turns out you can’t’
I think making allowances for people who spend their whole days here is the compassionate thing to do.
When I was literally unable to move, and thus unable to leave my home, being able to come here for a chat kept me connected, however tenuously, to the outside world.
I’m thus very wary about condemning someone for being here all the time.
It’s very probably and literally a lifeline for them.
If Allegra Spender is a Laborite, I’m Genghis Khan.
Allegra Spender’s husband was a not afraid to get arrested style environmental protester in days of yore.
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 5:53 pm
“Nothing frightens a Liberal more than a woman. Nothing.”
“Integrity” also worries them a great deal – mostly worries about what it means.
I remember a saying “What you need to be successful in sales is integrity. If you can fake that you will make it” Politics and marketing as well…
Hand them a dictionary..
We have a new ScottSlogan…
https://twitter.com/adamajacoby/status/1473119406871826433?s=21
In Victoria in the 1960/70s we had a pandemic of a different kind, road deaths and trauma. Well over 1000 deaths pa and many more injuries. The oppressive Govt of the time introduced Random breath tests, plus compulsory wearing of seat belts. These ‘serious incursions into individual liberty’ caused great outcries , particularly from people involved in the hotel industry, but also from people who thought that how you behaved in your own car was no business of the Govt.
Nevertheless the ‘road toll’ is about 20% of what it used to be, despite a much higher ‘exposed to risk’.
FGS wearing a mask doesn’t give the wearer of the mask great protection, but it increases every one else’s safety!!
If ScoMo’s desire is to get the Govt. out of people’s lives, then he should also advocate letting people drive on whatever side of the road they wished, and stop at red lights only if they found it convenient! Of course all police efforts to stop “sovereign men” beating up women would have to cease, and men should be left free to act as if they were Federal politicians!!
Of course there are numerous different lines of attack on this smarmy marketing man’s proposals, but i chose those I thought might appeal to poll bludgers.
The key point is that to live in a society one has to give up some “freedoms”, if they interfere with another’s freedoms. EG. wear masks so that someone else can live disease free.