Yuletide polling detritus

A Tasmanian state poll, issue salience and COVID management polling, and a voting intention data dump from Essential Research.

Unless Roy Morgan is feeling ambitious, we’re unlikely to see new polling until mid-to-late January, although The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns immediately after Christmas. If breakdowns are your game, Essential Research now provides a mother lode of them for all its polling going back the start of 2020, with voting intention broken down by (mainland) state, gender, age cohort, work status and region (categorised as inner metro, outer metro, provincial and rural). With the availability of this data, it will become worth my while to again provide state-level polling trends in BludgerTrack, as was done before the 2019 election. So stay tuned for that. For the time being, Essential’s state and gender results are now included in my poll data archive.

A few other polling morsels to report:

• The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania snuck out last week without me noticing. It found little change on the last poll in August, with the Liberals steady on 49%, Labor down two to 26% and the Greens steady on 13%, which in turn differed little from the March election result of Liberal 48.7%, Labor 28.2% and Greens 12.4%. Peter Gutwein’s 59-28 lead over Rebecca White as preferred premier is likewise hardly changed from 59-29 last time. The poll was conducted November 28 to December 5 from a sample of 1000.

• JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey on issue salience. Ratings for the government’s performance across a range of 20 issues are down across the board by zero to five points since July, with defence, security and terrorism and immigration remaining its strongest suits and cost of living and environment/climate change its weakest. Among many findings about COVID-19, the federal government is deemed to have performed well by 40% and poorly by 28%, while state and territory governments in aggregate are on 60% and 12% respectively, with both maintaining downward trends from a peak late last year. Cost of living and health are rated effectively equal as the issue the government should be most focused on, with 59% and 58% respectively including them among five choices out of a list of 20. The survey was conducted November 22 to November 24 from a sample of 1000.

• Recommended reading: Kevin Bonham on “the overrated impact of party preferencing decisions” and Alan Kohler on the Australian Electoral Commission.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,588 comments on “Yuletide polling detritus”

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  1. With overseas countries starting to lockdown again

    Nsw Lib/nats and federal Lib/nats let the virus rip through and to live with the virus doesnt matter how many cases or people who gets sick or unfortunately die , Australia is once again a laughing stock and behind the world

  2. Never forget that Scott Morrison was the guy who was quite prepared to keep mourning families separate after they lost loved ones, and, more pertinently, their children, at sea off Christmas Island.

    And yes, GG, I read what you wrote. This is different.

  3. More than 10,000 new Omicron cases have been confirmed in the UK, as the variant surges across the country.
    A further 90,418 daily Covid cases have been reported across the UK on Saturday, after days of record highs.
    Scientific advisers have warned England’s hospital admissions could reach 3,000 a day without new measures.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Unsurprisingly, health experts are demanding Dominic Perrottet reverse course and reintroduce mandatory mask-wearing for indoor environments as the Omicron variant continues to surge across the state, just days after a major unwinding of COVID-19 restrictions.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/perrottet-under-pressure-to-backflip-on-covid-rules-as-omicron-surges-20211218-p59ios.html
    Leading epidemiologic expert, Professor Mary-Louise McLaws, has slammed the NSW Government’s COVID-19 “live with the pandemic” plan.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/nsw-government-slammed-as-covid-cases-soar,15867
    Albo seems to be everything that Scomo isn’t, writes John Lord.
    https://theaimn.com/albo-seems-to-be-everything-that-scomo-isnt/
    Mark Kenny wonders why moderate Liberals like Simon Birmingham and Marise Payne have not stood up. He says that instead, they use words, cleverly arranged and artfully timed to appear modern, while otherwise mouthing the talking points and voting with the Nationals.
    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7556567/voters-tire-of-liberal-sheep-in-wolves-clothing/?cs=14246
    Terry McCrann says that like the US Fed’s Jerome Powell, the always smiling treasurer Josh Frydenberg has, similarly, simply abandoned any semblance of responsible fiscal policy.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/us-fed-and-frydenberg-joined-in-policy-lunacy/news-story/98554179b4a6557bdb02fc1f7c8fe029
    We thought Christmas was back, but the Great COVID Cancellation is upon us, writes Jenna Price.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-thought-christmas-was-back-the-great-covid-cancellation-is-upon-us-20211218-p59inw.html
    Tom Cowie writes that Melbourne is not back in lockdown, but some people are living under self-imposed restrictions over the next week to avoid exposure to a rising number of positive cases that could leave them in isolation on Christmas Day. It’s much the same here in SA.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melburnians-lock-down-to-avoid-being-pinged-as-a-covid-close-contact-for-christmas-20211216-p59i4e.html
    Stephen Brooke looks at the raft of independents standing in the next election and calls for the Voices to start detailing their policies.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/independent-s-day-how-to-vote-in-a-two-horse-race-for-power-20211217-p59id2.html
    Caitlin Fitzsimmons tells us that multimillionaire Graeme Wood’s last donation to the Greens was in 2019 and he may throw his support behind climate independents instead.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-all-time-top-donor-considers-switch-to-climate-independents-20211215-p59hov.html
    Soil carbon sequestration on farms alone won’t absolve our daily emission sins, argues Kate Burke.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/19/soil-carbon-sequestration-on-farms-alone-wont-absolve-our-daily-emission-sins
    James Massola reports that former Liberal staffer Rachelle Miller is threatening to withdraw from the investigation into her relationship with stood-aside cabinet minister Alan Tudge before she even gives evidence, amid concerns over the independent inquiry. She and her lawyer must have been studying the form guide.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/rachelle-miller-threatens-to-withdraw-from-inquiry-into-alan-tudge-allegations-20211216-p59i76.html
    Time, energy and resources have been wasted by a large number of regional and rural organisations who held the false belief that their application for a grant would judged on merit, writes Jommy Tee in the second of two articles
    https://www.michaelwest.com.au/regional-rorts-thrive-under-morrison-government/
    Adele Ferguson has more to say about the cosmetic surgery situation and lines up AHPRA with some harsh, and justified, criticisms.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/makes-my-skin-crawl-dancing-jolene-doctor-not-a-specialist-anaesthetist-20211217-p59ikc.html
    No party could be worth the hangover Boris Johnson is now suffering, opines Marina Hyde.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/dec/17/party-hangover-boris-johnson-prime-minister-leadership-contest

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding


    Peter Broelman

    Mark Knight

    Matt Davidson

    From the US


  5. In a country that tracks the spread of coronavirus variants as closely as any in the world, the signals have never been more concerning. Omicron positives are doubling nearly every two days. The country is setting one daily case record after another. The lab analyzing positive tests recently added an overnight shift just to keep up.

    And scientists say the surge is just beginning.

    As omicron drives a new phase of the pandemic, many are looking to Denmark — and particularly the government institute devoted to testing, surveillance and modeling — for warnings about what to expect.

    The emerging answer — even in this highly vaccinated, wealthy northern European country — is dire. For all the defenses built over the last year, the virus is about to sprint out of control, and scientists here expect a similar pattern in much of the world.

    “The next month will be the hardest period of the pandemic,” said Tyra Grove Krause, the chief epidemiologist at Denmark’s State Serum Institute, a campus of brick buildings along a canal.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/18/omicron-variant-denmark/

    And NSW has done the opposite of every other developed nation around the world by easing restrictions even further!

    Just hopeless. This is the worst state govt in history.

  6. I have no problem with Morrison attending the school where that terrible tragedy occurred. He is PM and he was showing the Leadership that we would all want our politicians to show in the face of a devastating community disaster. I believe he and his family got the tone right and their actions and reactions reflect well on them as the representatives of the rest of Australia.

    But, the haters got to hate. If Morrison doesn’t go he’s a heartless bastard. If he does go, it’s all a contrived picture opportunity. The PM’s security team make the place secure. But, with the threats that abound towards Morison and potentially, his family, why wouldn’t Morrison take appropriate steps to ensure their safety. Opposition politicians weren’t invited. Well boo fucking hoo!

    Some of the commentary on this matter has been nothing short of disgraceful. Every one on social media is a hammer these days. So, everything that happens is just another nail. Sometimes you just have to lower your guns and accept things at face value.

    I don’t like Morrison or his brand of politics. But, I’m approving of his behaviour yesterday. It humanises him and it’s heartening to see our PM doing the right thing by a small local community confronting a terrible tragedy. aa

  7. Morning all. Scomo has ordered that the jumping castles on Nauru and Christmas Island be removed, to keep the refugee kids safe.

    I expect Scomo will also order all jumping castles be removed from Afghanistan, so that there is no risk to the hundreds of children of Afghan workers Australia left behind when we cut and ran in Afghanistan.

    He cares about kids; all kids.

  8. C@t

    I agree. Morrison’s inconsistency is a problem for me. However, GG is someone who often sees things from the point of view of “the ordinary voter” (not meaning you are “ordinary”, GG) so I suspect he’s correct in his assessment.

  9. Thanks BK.

    Tom Cowie writes that Melbourne is not back in lockdown, but some people are living under self-imposed restrictions over the next week to avoid exposure to a rising number of positive cases that could leave them in isolation on Christmas Day. It’s much the same here in SA.
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/melburnians-lock-down-to-avoid-being-pinged-as-a-covid-close-contact-for-christmas-20211216-p59i4e.html

    Not so much in Sydney. I’ve reverted to my pandemic behaviour (grocery shopping before 7am once a week, avoiding all non-essential visits to indoor places, avoiding crowds of people indoors and outdoors, wearing my mask everywhere even exercising), but went for a walk yesterday after dinner and saw the restaurant – pub strip near home teeming with people, maskless and happily sat cheek by jowl inside and outside. Footage from the City on the news last night indicated crowds of shoppers, albeit at least wearing masks.

    Maybe this week will be different in the days before xmas.

  10. Greensborough Growler says:
    Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 6:39 am
    I have no problem with Morrison attending the school where that terrible tragedy occurred. He is PM and he was showing the Leadership that we would all want our politicians to show in the face of a devastating community disaster. I believe he and his family got the tone right and their actions and reactions reflect well on them as the representatives of the rest of Australia.

    But, the haters got to hate. If Morrison doesn’t go he’s a heartless bastard. If he does go, it’s all a contrived picture opportunity. The PM’s security team make the place secure. But, with the threats that abound towards Morison and potentially, his family, why wouldn’t Morrison take appropriate steps to ensure their safety. Opposition politicians weren’t invited. Well boo fucking hoo!

    Some of the commentary on this matter has been nothing short of disgraceful. Every one on social media is a hammer these days. So, everything that happens is just another nail. Sometimes you just have to lower your guns and accept things at face value.

    I don’t like Morrison or his brand of politics. But, I’m approving of his behaviour yesterday. It humanises him and it’s heartening to see our PM doing the right thing by a small local community confronting a terrible tragedy.
    —————
    I share your view on this GG. There’s no shortage of things to condemn Scomo for. The attacks on his presence at the school make those who pursue them seem relentlessly and opportunistically negative. Rather than harming Scomo, if anything they help frame a narrative that opposition to him includes elements that are extremist and out of touch. His visit to the school – presumably informed at least in part by political considerations, in the way that politicians commonly act in such circumstances – wasn’t significant enough to warrant any comment. There are plenty of genuinely disgraceful things his government has done, to keep 1000 blogs humming for a decade

  11. Thanks for the roundup BK. I have said before that most urban freeway projects are just gifts to road construction, legal and finance firms, especially the tunnels. Sadly, Westgate proves the point once again. One of Dan’s worst decisions. They could have built light rail to Monash Uni for far less.

    Mark Knight

  12. lizzie @ #NaN Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 7:16 am

    C@t

    I agree. Morrison’s inconsistency is a problem for me. However, GG is someone who often sees things from the point of view of “the ordinary voter” (not meaning you are “ordinary”, GG) so I suspect he’s correct in his assessment.

    I get that. He did what people expected of him yesterday, if somewhat over-egging the sympathy pudding for the cameras. I just don’t want us to forget that the man is also extremely heartless. Especially, it seems, when it comes to black and brown children and the parents who have lost them in tragic circumstances.

  13. Lizzie makes a important point on Morrison’s inconsistency during emotional and disastrous times ,

    The ordinary voter would have expected Morrison to show leadership during the bushfires but he fled to hawaii for a holiday his excuse was he promised his daughters .

    The ordinary voter would have notice that Morrison’s family was more important than the people he supposed to be the prime minister of in time of need.

    During the covid lockdowns , Morrison played politics by attacking Labor state/territories for closing borders and lockdowns while ignoring liberal party state governments doing the exact thing.

    The ordinary vote would have expected Morrison to show leadership and give all states and territories the same support , not only to Liberal party states

  14. GG

    Your response is well written and well reasoned. At this point I must plead guilty to being one of the haters of Morrison as PM. I regard Morrison as the worst PM in my adult life. He makes Howard look like an honest man.

    So it is possible I am one of those over-reacting. Yet I find it impossible to believe Morrison’s emotions of empathy because I perceive them to be contrived. I think he is a sociopath who has learnt to say the right things. But his predilection for lying makes me suspect that almost all of his displayed emotions are tactical.

    To that end, as per my somewhat sarcastic post at 7.16am, if Morrison really cared about kids, his attitude to other instances of children suffering is hard to explain.

  15. Professional politicians in other countries tell people what they want to hear to win elections as well:

    Howard Beckett
    @BeckettUnite

    • 823 days ago Boris Johnson told us he was going to build 40 new hospitals.

    • He told us the plans were approved & ready to go.

    Where are they?

  16. Some discussion last week about the Teal Independents pulling funding from the Greens – by those disappointed with the ineffectual stunt party. Well the biggest ever donor thinking exactly that, seeing nothing done 10 years after his donation…

    “The Greens’ biggest-ever donor is increasingly frustrated the party’s support has stalled and is considering throwing his support behind climate independents at the next election.

    Businessman Graeme Wood made political history by donating $1.68 million to the Greens in 2010, and over the decade gave the party’s state and national branches a total of $2.49 million.

    In an interview with The Sun-Herald and The Sunday Age, Mr Wood said the Greens needed a “shot in the arm” because its support had not increased since 2010. The party’s vote is still hovering just above 10 per cent and Mr Wood said that could be doubled with the right leader and strategy.

    “They just don’t seem to be cutting through enough,” Mr Wood said. “They could double their vote if they had somebody out front really telling the world what they do. Someone like Sarah Hanson-Young is clever, young, and female with opinions – she should be handed the megaphone a bit more often.”

    Mr Wood, who made his fortune by starting online travel company Wotif and is now an investor and philanthropist, said he had not been in touch with the Greens for some time. His last donation was in 2019 and while he did not rule out donating to them ahead of the election, he said he was “more attracted” to the growing movement of independents such as Warringah MP Zali Steggall.

    “The independents are the new wave,” Mr Wood said. “They’re our best hope of reshaping Federal Parliament and reshaping the direction the country’s … just sort of lumbering into.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-all-time-top-donor-considers-switch-to-climate-independents-20211215-p59hov.html

  17. GG

    “BTW Labor is building a trackless tram route to Monash Uni.”

    Strictly speaking, they have promised to plan it, not build it 🙂

    There had been previous work to plan an LRT line (i.e. tram operating in its own reservation) to Monash Uni though that was not followed up with any building. Pity. It was very feasible and would have benefited a large population along the route.

    The range of electric buses, of which the “trackless tram” is one marketed version, is rapidly growing in capability and variety. However they are heavier than normal buses (the batteries weight 2 to 4 tonnes) and so the road pavement needs full depth asphalt i.e. reconstruction. So I hope:
    (a) they actually intend to build it and
    (b) they are prepared for the real cost, not the media hype price.

    That being said, this proposal is why building urban freeway tunnels is not a victimless crime. The money wasted means there is nothing left to build the public transport we need.

  18. The Greens’ largest donor is considering shifting support to the teals.

    Greens’ all-time top donor considers switch to climate independents

    The Greens’ biggest-ever donor is increasingly frustrated the party’s support has stalled and is considering throwing his support behind climate independents at the next election.

    Businessman Graeme Wood made political history by donating $1.68 million to the Greens in 2010, and over the decade gave the party’s state and national branches a total of $2.49 million.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-all-time-top-donor-considers-switch-to-climate-independents-20211215-p59hov.html

  19. GG
    The best example of applying “make up on a pig” for yonks.
    Morrison is a feral political animal, without conscience nor care.
    Morrison’s minders love your response.
    It’s obvious to me that very few of the PBers have ever had the pleasure of Morrison’s company.
    The first reaction from any poor bastard having had their hand grabbed by the current PM, is to look around and try
    to find some way of disinfecting the bloody thing.
    And that’s only the reaction from his friends!
    The froth around the mouth and the glassy eyed stare are the ‘telltales’.
    Utter bullshit on toast this morning!

  20. Socrates,

    It will be built.

    The issue is not lack of will. But, prioritising the infrastructure developments in Melbourne and ensuring that new infrastructure is not pulled up for the next project and ensuring that the links are in place. Simple Planning.

    The Westgate Tunnel is a project of merit that has been delayed by the contaminated soil problem which has taken some time to resolve. When it’s finished in a few years, users will wonder what all the fuss was about.

    The Labor Government has spent billions on upgrading and improving public transport and roads and there is more to come. Victorians as a whole seem to approve whta the ir State Government is doing.

  21. Apparently this is because we’re not Christian …

    ‘What are we left with? A society obsessed with cartoonish cancel culture, debilitating contests for recognition and poisonous identity wars. All of it like a cancer eating democracy itself.

    There is little transcendence, just inherent pessimism and hopelessness.’

    ‘Cancel culture’ seems mild to me in comparison with burning those who don’t follow the same brand of Christianity as you alive, just for starters.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-19/christmas-christianity-faith-receding-hope-waning-world-poorer/100707034?utm_medium=social&utm_content=sf252260389&utm_campaign=fb_abc_news&utm_source=m.facebook.com&sf252260389=1&fbclid=IwAR0xrtQ0-rFwq0zbYoZj8SqMQYVMcsw4ZZQGP9TnU6io3TWPkT0M67QCCTA

  22. ‘Citizen says:
    Sunday, December 19, 2021 at 7:46 am

    The Greens’ largest donor is considering shifting support to the teals.

    Greens’ all-time top donor considers switch to climate independents
    …’
    ———————-
    The Greens hate political parties being bought by donors so Ff and Quoll should be dropping in to Bludger to announce that this is excellent news.

  23. Cheers, Citizen!

    Graeme Wood pointing out the stalled Greens vote under Bandt has been obvious to keen readers of this blog – time for the Greens to consider winding up the Federal chapter of the party, and concentrating on State and Local government.

  24. More incompetence from Morrison and his cronies of the vaccine rollout , now with booster rollout

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/19/australia-wont-reach-80-covid-booster-rate-until-well-into-2022-analysis-shows

    Australia could take until well into next year to hit an 80% booster vaccination rate, with the rollout currently ranking almost last out of 70 countries, Guardian analysis shows.

    Boosters are now available to anyone who has had a second dose of a Covid vaccine more than five months ago.

    However, Australia’s slow initial vaccine rollout meant that more than half of all second doses were administered in the final four months of 2021. So with a five-month dosing interval, the people who received their second doses late in 2021 won’t be eligible for a booster until February.

  25. citizen @ #NaN Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 7:46 am

    The Greens’ largest donor is considering shifting support to the teals.

    Greens’ all-time top donor considers switch to climate independents

    The Greens’ biggest-ever donor is increasingly frustrated the party’s support has stalled and is considering throwing his support behind climate independents at the next election.

    Businessman Graeme Wood made political history by donating $1.68 million to the Greens in 2010, and over the decade gave the party’s state and national branches a total of $2.49 million.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/greens-all-time-top-donor-considers-switch-to-climate-independents-20211215-p59hov.html

    I imagine Bandt’s immature comment about taking 2 years out to sit around and smoke weed wouldn’t have gone down well with some of these donors, just reinforcing that the Greens are not a serious party of action, but a teenage protest party.

  26. It’s not a race…

    Australia could take until well into next year to hit an 80% booster vaccination rate, with the rollout currently ranking almost last out of 70 countries, Guardian analysis shows.

    Boosters are now available to anyone who has had a second dose of a Covid vaccine more than five months ago.

    However, Australia’s slow initial vaccine rollout meant that more than half of all second doses were administered in the final four months of 2021. So with a five-month dosing interval, the people who received their second doses late in 2021 won’t be eligible for a booster until February.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/18/covid-live-experts-call-for-stricter-restrictions-in-england-very-soon-omicron-spreading-fast-in-france

  27. I am delighted to be able to post something optimistic this morning.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-18/wandi-returns-home-two-years-after-falling-from-the-sky/100703670

    Sanctuary supervisor Kevin Newman, who is also Wandi’s manager, said he has been a fantastic ambassador for the species.

    “For many years we were told that there were no pure dingoes left in Victoria and a lot of scientists believe that,” he said… until Wandi literally fell from the sky and proved everyone wrong.

    ‘Wandi’ the pure dingo was found hiding in the backyard of a North East Victorian home.
    It’s believed “Wandi” the dingo was taken from his mother by an eagle when he was between eight and 10 weeks old.

  28. Australia could take until well into next year to hit an 80% booster vaccination rate, with the rollout currently ranking almost last out of 70 countries, Guardian analysis shows.

    #StrollOut

  29. GG
    The stunning thing about Morrison’s trip to Tasi is he managed to screw it up.

    You don’t clear out morners for a pboto op if you want it to go well.

    Perhaps a quite visit without the cameras?

  30. McLaws is someone whose advices have been reliable and consistent thru the last 2 years

    She is the source I have most relied on

    For very, very good reason

    Unfortunately she is not widely reported by main stream media

    The Liberal Party media instead go to Bennett, for whom I have absolutely no time defined as partisan and useless

    Bennett is a brand looking for relevance – and the media use her for their reasons not mine

    Then you get to the 7.30 presenter – sour to a fault, politically partisan and self interested in the face of a global health crisis

    I do not watch the program but note her criticism of the Queensland health advice, which obviously impacted her personally

    In these times we act and respond with caution

    Which is what I understand the very great majority of people are doing – removing elements of risk from their lives

    Regardless of certain governments saying we just need to stare down this virus, learn to live with it and grow the can do capitalism economy

    Noting the numbers of close contacts now in individual lockdown (yes, that word again)

    Then you look around the World

    And to the sage advice of McLaws

    Meanwhile the slags of society march in our streets

    Noting the surprise of the Murdoch media at the reception Sutton received at the Sidney Myer Music Bowl – and the acclaim for Sutton

    No doubt their headline will be the slags of society

  31. The reaction to Morrison going to the school can be put down to cynicism and that is justified by Morrison’s past behavior but also insecurity by people on the left that can’t handle anything positive being said about the otherside.

  32. Socrates
    Building tram infrastructure on that side if town would be more to the point.

    In my view we need a light rail tunnel under the yarra and the light rail system extended for at least 15km in that diection.

    After the problems with contaminated soil i don’t thunk there will be more tunnels.

  33. The five-month limit is not set in stone.
    I had my second vaccination on June 21, but I was able to get my booster at the very beginning of December via negotiation with my GP when the interval was still set at six months.
    Please discuss with your GP the possibility of bringing forward your third jab.

  34. Public amenity is BOTH public transport and private transport (so people choosing to use their cars, cars we see on our roads along with logistics vehicles)

    These are inter generational assets

    Our children, their children and their children et al will thank our generation for their forethought

    As they avail of their vehicles (of the future) and public transport

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