Yuletide polling detritus

A Tasmanian state poll, issue salience and COVID management polling, and a voting intention data dump from Essential Research.

Unless Roy Morgan is feeling ambitious, we’re unlikely to see new polling until mid-to-late January, although The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns immediately after Christmas. If breakdowns are your game, Essential Research now provides a mother lode of them for all its polling going back the start of 2020, with voting intention broken down by (mainland) state, gender, age cohort, work status and region (categorised as inner metro, outer metro, provincial and rural). With the availability of this data, it will become worth my while to again provide state-level polling trends in BludgerTrack, as was done before the 2019 election. So stay tuned for that. For the time being, Essential’s state and gender results are now included in my poll data archive.

A few other polling morsels to report:

• The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania snuck out last week without me noticing. It found little change on the last poll in August, with the Liberals steady on 49%, Labor down two to 26% and the Greens steady on 13%, which in turn differed little from the March election result of Liberal 48.7%, Labor 28.2% and Greens 12.4%. Peter Gutwein’s 59-28 lead over Rebecca White as preferred premier is likewise hardly changed from 59-29 last time. The poll was conducted November 28 to December 5 from a sample of 1000.

• JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey on issue salience. Ratings for the government’s performance across a range of 20 issues are down across the board by zero to five points since July, with defence, security and terrorism and immigration remaining its strongest suits and cost of living and environment/climate change its weakest. Among many findings about COVID-19, the federal government is deemed to have performed well by 40% and poorly by 28%, while state and territory governments in aggregate are on 60% and 12% respectively, with both maintaining downward trends from a peak late last year. Cost of living and health are rated effectively equal as the issue the government should be most focused on, with 59% and 58% respectively including them among five choices out of a list of 20. The survey was conducted November 22 to November 24 from a sample of 1000.

• Recommended reading: Kevin Bonham on “the overrated impact of party preferencing decisions” and Alan Kohler on the Australian Electoral Commission.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,588 comments on “Yuletide polling detritus”

Comments Page 2 of 32
1 2 3 32
  1. CameronC:

    A relative tried to get her booster with her GP who insisted that because the 5 month interval isn’t up until the new year she has to wait until then.

    It think it depends on the individual and the clinic.

  2. There is a strong case for extending Melbourne’s tram network because Melbourne has a number of major roads that are wide enough to carry trams but the real problem is there are dreamers that think Melbourne will wake up one day to become a bus city but that will never happen.

  3. Observer,
    We too rely on McLaws as one of our sources, plus I follow Dr Eric Feigl-Ding on twitter.
    Plus Norman Swan on Coronacast is usually on the money but find using all three gives us a good overview.
    Have found that listening to any more creates confusion if they diverge from the above.

  4. Good point mb.

    It was very much a thing with Howard too. The level of hate impaired the ability to objectively assess the weaknesses of your opponent.

    Howard wasn’t done in by hatred – more a sense that his time had passed.

    Peeps are seriously weighing dumping Scomo but Labor being unhinged in its attacks a la sokrates and connecting that hatred to the pet issues of the left like asylum seekers is likely to have the opposite effect.

  5. “ I hope Wandi has found lots of girlfriends. ”

    From the article it appears that Wandi is happily married with a nuclear family of his own.

  6. Australia is now 10th out of 38 in the oecd for vaccination.

    For all the scaremongering and death riding on here it pretty much happened within 9 months.

    Excellent public health outcome delivered from all government, national and state imo.

  7. I learned last week that the traditional Christmas food in Japan is Kentucky Fried Chicken.
    Just like the US commercial influence has imposed the Coca-Cola coloured Santa, Halloween and Black Friday on us, apparently years ago KFC invented Christmas Dinner in Japan (not predominantly a Christian nation), therefore Fried Chicken was promoted as the food of choice!

  8. Looking forward to Within the first 4 months of 2022

    Whether the federal Lib/nats are in a good position or not the date of the federal election will be confirmed

  9. cosmic jester
    The fact this even needs to be said shows how social media has completely broken so many peoples brains
    Prime Minister and Mrs Morrison’s visit to Hillcrest Primary was entirely appropriate. It was respectful ..low key .. showed emotions we all feel. No-one we spoke to in Devonport, including victims’ families, indicated they had any problem with it . 10am “Sunday Morning”

  10. Gaslighting apologist L’arse the botfly chimes in.

    While there is nothing wrong with a PM assuming the role of mourner in chief ion times of tragedy, it is unhinged at all to realise the obvious: something ain’t right with this bloke. Every occasion is a photo op, and if that turns to custard he fucks off in a panicked and callous way. To make sure there are no Carbago type incidents everything is stage managed and orchestrated to an extreme level, including what happened yesterday.

    So. Fuck off L’arse. Socrates was being – if anything – mild in his critique. Personally I think that Morrison is an intergalactic space cockroach hiding out on earth in a Scotty suit. No wonder you empathise: you parasites have gotta stick together. Am I right?

  11. Labor has also dumped its 600 buck cash splash for vaccination.

    Looks like we all collectively saved 3billion by dodging that bit of loopy thinking.

  12. LVT
    Comparing the giving of teddy bear to a child found, to pushing morners out if the way for a photo op pretty much destroys your credibility.

    As i posted, in my view, the extraordinary thing is Morrison’s PR term managed to screw it up.

  13. “ Australia is now 10th out of 38 in the oecd for vaccination.

    For all the scaremongering and death riding on here it pretty much happened within 9 months.

    Excellent public health outcome delivered from all government, national and state imo.”

    So, can i get back the 100 days that I spent in lockdown becuase our your LNP heroes’ feckless ‘day late, dollar short, don’t give a fuck governance this year’?, Von Botfly? Fuck off.

  14. C@tmomma @ #54 Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 8:31 am

    Our GP said they just don’t have the vaccines to be able to give anyone a booster! So, call back in the New Year. 😐

    C@t I heard that the feds aren’t funding GPs and pharmacies for vaccine boosters like they did with the vax 1 &2 therefore clinics aren’t ordering vaccines in great numbers for fear they’ll be wasted.

  15. It seems the Governor General was in Tasmania yesterday. It’s only a short flight from Hobart to Devonport.

    Governor-General of Australia
    20 hrs

    The Governor-General and Mrs Hurley attended the launch ceremony of the RSV Nuyina in Hobart

    Australia’s new Antarctic icebreaker, RSV Nuyina will be the main lifeline to Australia’s Antarctic and sub-Antarctic research stations and the central platform of our Antarctic and Southern Ocean scientific research…


  16. The first of the dominoes falls…

    THE HAGUE, Dec 18 (Reuters) – The Netherlands will go into a strict lockdown over the Christmas and New Year period to try to contain the highly- contagious Omicron coronavirus variant, Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on Saturday.

    All non-essential shops and services, including restaurants, hairdressers, museums and gyms will be closed from Sunday until Jan. 14. All schools will be shut until at least Jan. 9.


  17. The Channel 7 guy NickMcCallum7 was the one who put out a story that a man was bashed by an African gang in Melbourne’s outer east. He was bashed by whites and the police said there was never any suggestion that Africans were involved. McCallum has connections with right-wing groups.

  18. 3 billion that would probably have seen all those hold outs in the under 35s get themselves vaccinated would be money worth spending given that such youngsters are the covid vectors right now. Not to mention the obvious stimulus benefits of such payments. Compare that to the 28 billion that ScoMo and Fry-de-planet gifted billionaires and large corporations with their poorly designed and executed ‘day late, dollar short (to those that needed it)’ Jobsaver boondoggle.

    Nice try, Von Botfly. Time for a Moreten spray i think.

  19. Lars,

    The $600 Vaccine incentive was a good idea when vaccination rates were very low.

    However, in the absence of Federal Government support, the States went for mandates instead. (No jab, No Job) and closed down industry for a couple of weeks to allow people to be vaccinated. Hardly a costless alternative. But, it certainly boosted vaccine rates.

  20. GG
    Channel 7 news can be shallow and doesn’t tell the viewer anything of real substance but some of the responses to that tweet confirm the problem the left has because if Morrison was a ALP leader the same people would be telling us how caring and compassionate he is and its the media’s fault that he is seen as fake. There is one thing that i can be certain off about that visit and that is no one who saw that footage is now going to vote for him because of it.

  21. When Perrottet first became premier he was front and centre in every news conference he could schedule.

    Now, with difficult questions abounding about the stupid decision to ease restrictions while a new Covid variant spreads, he’s either standing at the back deferring to others, or is nowhere to be found.

    Say what you want about Gladys, but at least she fronted the media day in, day out.

  22. GG:

    It was the rapid spread of the Delta variant that mobilised people to get vaccinated, esp in NSW. Australia’s vaccination has happened in spite of, not because of anything Morrison and his cronies did.

    And as with everything else Covid, it’s the states and territories who have done the heavy lifting on Australia’s response to the pandemic. The feds have just sat idly by doing SFA, or have failed dismally at the things that WERE their responsibility.

  23. “ You can say critical things about Gladys Berejiklian AND Dominic Perrottet. ”

    Of course not. As a parasite, Von Botfly empathises with them. Actual humans? Not so much.

  24. Fred,

    Nick Macallum is a journo that I respect and always plays it straight imho.

    But, the reason I posted his comment is that it reflects the wall to wall positive review of the PM appearance in the MSM that I have read and seen. It also reflects general view of those I was talking to last night.

    As I said earlier, I reckon the PM got the tone right and acted as I would have wanted him to.

    I’ll leave the traducing and non-stop politicking to you and the haters.

  25. Perrottet under pressure to backflip on COVID rules as Omicron surges

    The picture with the article made me thing of Frank Spencer from Some Mothers do ‘Ave ‘Em. Dom just realising what Omicron could mean goes…………..

  26. As many Indigenous Communities are under the Indue Card, I believe it is relevant to note, as far as defenders of the Right’s attacks on Labor’s offer of $600 to get vaccinated, that Indigenous Community members have been offered Energy Payment Cards, Cards with credit on them for the Local Store, and other cash-in-kind incentives, to go and get vaccinated.

    Not only that but these cash-in-kind incentives were available for the 1st vaccination AND again for the 2nd.

    Note also that it would have been the federal Coalition government who were the ones signing off on these cash-in-kind incentives.

  27. While many are busy talking about Morrison KK points out that Wentworth one of the wealthiest electorates in Australia has been given $33.53m since 2018 and Fowler one of the most disadvantaged electorates in the country received just $1.1m.

  28. Labor’s $600 incentive (I thought it was $300, but I’m probably just misremembering) made perfect sense… when it was announced months ago. Not so much come polling day next year. Of course they are going to drop the policy now that it’s no longer particularly relevant.

  29. Just been looking at the booster stats for my little corner of the world, we’re going pretty well here – up to 62% boosted (of those 12+) as of yesterday 🙂


    Still worried about the New Year though, throughout the pandemic we’ve always lagged well behind most other areas as cases rise and then ended up in much deeper doo-doo than most when we finally catch up

    In other news, Brexit negotiator Lord Frost has resigned from the Cabinet and the drummer for ‘The Wurzels’ has died after contracting Covid

  30. Victoria has recorded 1,240 new local COVID-19 cases and four deaths.

    There are now 13,093 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 635 people have died during the current outbreak.

    392 people are in hospital with COVID-19 — of those 81 are in intensive care and 41 are on a ventilator.

    The new cases were detected from 76,033 test results received yesterday.

    NSW records 2,566 cases, no deaths

    The state’s second dose vaccination rate is now up to 93.4 per cent of the 16+ population.

    There are 227 people in hospital (up from 206 yesterday) and 28 in ICU, up two from yesterday.

  31. At 2pm Thursday Priceline Pharmacies in Melbourne cancelled their bookings for week Dec 18 to Dec 26

    According to federal government website on Dec 10, there were no Covid vax scheduled at Dr surgeries near me until Jan 10

    Went to see a matinee yesterday, masked woman in seat behind me coughed and sniffled through whole performance, the silver foxes in row in front were maskless, I spent the performance wondering “Do you feel lucky? punk”.
    My friends sitting 15 seats away in same row put their masks on after interval because they had been notified as close contacts, I had avoided that venue

    Meanwhile covid cases are rising rapidly . . . .

  32. Wow look at those test numbers! I don’t recall testing numbers being that high even at the height of the pandemic.

    Must be inflated with all those people looking to travel in the next few days.

  33. Q: cartoonish cancel culture, debilitating contests for recognition and poisonous identity wars

    Funny when anyone other than a white-Christian-male demands to have some self respect, representation and visibility it is the end of civilisation……sounds like they are more concerned about protecting privilege than the real problems facing the world.

  34. I just read a Twitter thread on a family (varying ages) who caught Omicron, and the different effects it had according to their age. I then had a mild panic attack because the symptoms were so graphically explained. I still feel a little shaken.

  35. Trackless Tram route in Melbourne will follow the campus bus route from Monash Caulfield (next to Caulfield Railway Station) past Chadstone to Monash Clayton, currently a free service operated by Monash University which may check student id.

    The state government plans or has commenced building train line from Cheltenham/Southland to Monash Clayton

    This will eliminate the need for middle class private school educated 17 year olds to learn how to hitch hike around urban Melbourne, before trying their skills in Europe and South America

    An English transport expert was appalled by the hitch hiking stand at the Clayton campus entrance
    Victorians must be 18 to get drivers license but are expected to keep up with traffic on freeways running at 110 and can be fined if travelling more than 20km below speed limit

  36. Torchbearer
    The problem with cancel culture has nothing to do with seeking respect or visibility but the treatment of history by today’s standards and the judgemental way that advocates hold people to account regardless of context.

Comments Page 2 of 32
1 2 3 32

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *