Yuletide polling detritus

A Tasmanian state poll, issue salience and COVID management polling, and a voting intention data dump from Essential Research.

Unless Roy Morgan is feeling ambitious, we’re unlikely to see new polling until mid-to-late January, although The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns immediately after Christmas. If breakdowns are your game, Essential Research now provides a mother lode of them for all its polling going back the start of 2020, with voting intention broken down by (mainland) state, gender, age cohort, work status and region (categorised as inner metro, outer metro, provincial and rural). With the availability of this data, it will become worth my while to again provide state-level polling trends in BludgerTrack, as was done before the 2019 election. So stay tuned for that. For the time being, Essential’s state and gender results are now included in my poll data archive.

A few other polling morsels to report:

• The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania snuck out last week without me noticing. It found little change on the last poll in August, with the Liberals steady on 49%, Labor down two to 26% and the Greens steady on 13%, which in turn differed little from the March election result of Liberal 48.7%, Labor 28.2% and Greens 12.4%. Peter Gutwein’s 59-28 lead over Rebecca White as preferred premier is likewise hardly changed from 59-29 last time. The poll was conducted November 28 to December 5 from a sample of 1000.

• JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey on issue salience. Ratings for the government’s performance across a range of 20 issues are down across the board by zero to five points since July, with defence, security and terrorism and immigration remaining its strongest suits and cost of living and environment/climate change its weakest. Among many findings about COVID-19, the federal government is deemed to have performed well by 40% and poorly by 28%, while state and territory governments in aggregate are on 60% and 12% respectively, with both maintaining downward trends from a peak late last year. Cost of living and health are rated effectively equal as the issue the government should be most focused on, with 59% and 58% respectively including them among five choices out of a list of 20. The survey was conducted November 22 to November 24 from a sample of 1000.

• Recommended reading: Kevin Bonham on “the overrated impact of party preferencing decisions” and Alan Kohler on the Australian Electoral Commission.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,588 comments on “Yuletide polling detritus”

Comments Page 3 of 32
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  1. Mexicanbeemer @ #NaN Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 9:00 am

    While many are busy talking about Morrison KK points out that Wentworth one of the wealthiest electorates in Australia has been given $33.53m since 2018 and Fowler one of the most disadvantaged electorates in the country received just $1.1m.

    KK knows how to get the framing exactly right.

  6. Lars ”Australia is now 10th out of 38 in the oecd for vaccination.

    For all the scaremongering and death riding on here it pretty much happened within 9 months.

    Excellent public health outcome delivered from all government, national and state imo.”

    It is indeed good that after a late and very slow start, we’ve caught up to where we need to be. There is still a lot of concern with the booster program, however. It also seems to be plagued by supply issues in spite of the need for boosters being known for several months.

    Be all that as it may, the fact remains that Australia faced the start of the Delta outbreak with only 3% of the population fully vaccinated, four months into the program. That plus the total failure of the Federal Government to deal with quarantine has meant that Australia has wasted most of its early advantage.

  9. Over $4 TRILLION sitting on the Balance Sheets of Companies whilst impacted households were forced to withdraw from their superannuation accruals because their terms and conditions of employment saw them not qualify for any government assistance.

    Then those stood down without pay – equally not eligible for any government assistance.

    And that is before we get to the whereabouts of the “surge staff” for Aged Care businesses.

    Just for starters.

    I note that the far-right apologists make no mention of these FACTS.

    And no mention of the internal review in WA nor the reasons the (now) Speaker in the SA Parliament resigned from the Liberal Party.

    Nor the reasons for the “Teals” in safe Liberal seats.

    Nor staring down the virus, living with the virus in a can do capitalism State to grow the economy – and government “getting out of our lives”.

    Well, many across society rely on government including government protecting the rights of community versus vested interest (refer Aged Care).

    PLUS, who bragged that Australia would lead the World on vaccination – and support other Nations?

    It is not the performance, “botched” as it was, it was the delivery versus the bragging

  10. Socrates @ #21 Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 7:44 am

    GG

    “BTW Labor is building a trackless tram route to Monash Uni.”

    Strictly speaking, they have promised to plan it, not build it 🙂

    There had been previous work to plan an LRT line (i.e. tram operating in its own reservation) to Monash Uni though that was not followed up with any building. Pity. It was very feasible and would have benefited a large population along the route.

    The range of electric buses, of which the “trackless tram” is one marketed version, is rapidly growing in capability and variety. However they are heavier than normal buses (the batteries weight 2 to 4 tonnes) and so the road pavement needs full depth asphalt i.e. reconstruction. So I hope:
    (a) they actually intend to build it and
    (b) they are prepared for the real cost, not the media hype price.

    That being said, this proposal is why building urban freeway tunnels is not a victimless crime. The money wasted means there is nothing left to build the public transport we need.

    I could be wrong, but I think much of the reservation for once planned rail line to Monash is still available. Monash as a major destination needs some public transport better than shuttle buses from one of the nearest train stations. This sounds a good idea.

  11. It seems that Lars von Tryhard for the Liberals simply wants us to forgive and forget about the strollout. If it had occurred under Labor’s watch I can guarantee the same person would be squealing like a stuck pig from the rooftops about the deaths Labor had caused through their negligence.

    So, no matter how this person tries to cloak their observations in oleaginous generosity to both sides of politics, please know that they are doing so simply to help out their team.

  12. C@t

    I’m sorry. I chose not to post it because I didn’t want to be accused of scaremongering, and because Twitter moves so fast it is now lost.

  15. In Cave news , we hit the big 90 yesterday…………..

    WA now has 90 per cent of all eligible West Aussies, those over the aged of the 12, having received their first dose of a COVID vaccine.

    https://www.perthnow.com.au/news/coronavirus/wa-vaccination-rate-state-hits-huge-first-jab-threshold–c-5002429

    Just think this was the headline in the SMH just 13 days ago.

    NSW confirms nine more Omicron cases, ‘room for improvement’ in teen vaccination rate

    NSW health authorities have confirmed there are now 25 cases of the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 in the state,

  16. Observer,
    Right apologists never mention inconvenient truths/facts. They are more interested in crafting a particular narrative to suit themselves than telling the truth.

  17. Monash Uni will be on the Suburban Underground Rail Loop within the decade, with construction starting in 2022. This will be much more useful than the light rail – subway to Clayton then change trains and straight to the city.

  20. Mexicanbeemer @ #43 Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 8:20 am

    The reaction to Morrison going to the school can be put down to cynicism and that is justified by Morrison’s past behavior but also insecurity by people on the left that can’t handle anything positive being said about the otherside.

    I’d be interested in anything you think is positive about the “other side”. Nothing much comes to mind but I stand to be corrected.

  24. Ballantyne
    That sort of comment is one of the problems with politics in this country because blind support of one side and blind hatred of the other side leads to people getting wound up by little things like the PM and wife went to a school and laid flowers.

  26. Our democracy is ‘on the brink’ thanks to ‘one tantrum-throwing bully’ — and he must be stopped: Mary Trump

    Donald Trump knows he lost the 2020 election, according to his niece, Mary Trump. But growing up in the Trump family, a loser was “one of the worst things you could ever be.”

    So when Trump was defeated by President Joe Biden, “he had to deny that reality immediately and the best way to do that would be to double down on the lie that it was stolen from him, that he’s really a winner,” Mary Trump, a psychologist, told CNN on Saturday…. we find ourselves at this point where American democracy is on the brink because over the course of five decades, one repellant, temper-tantrum-throwing bully has never been held accountable for any of the awful things he’s done, including his numerous crimes against America.

    “If our system can’t respond swiftly to the threats this very weak and vengeful person continues to pose to the future of American democracy, then I’m afraid we might be irrevocably broken, so I really do hope that steps are being taken — real steps — to do something to stop him and hold him accountable finally,” she said.

    https://www.rawstory.com/donald-trump-2656067566/

  29. Mexicanbeemer @ #124 Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 9:53 am

    Ballantyne
    That sort of comment is one of the problems with politics in this country because blind support of one side and blind hatred of the other side leads to people getting wound up by little things like the PM and wife went to a school and laid flowers.

    So there’s nothing positive you can think of? Personally, I don’t give a damn whether Morrison and his family went to Tasmania or not. I’m interested in what positive measures this government has taken in its seemingly endless years of existence. I can’t think of any – and I have neither blind support or blind hatred for any party.

  32. Greensborough Growler @ #60 Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 8:38 am

    cosmic jester
    @cosmicjester
    ·
    8m
    The fact this even needs to be said shows how social media has completely broken so many peoples brains
    NickMcCallum7
    @NickMcCallum7
    Prime Minister and Mrs Morrison’s visit to Hillcrest Primary was entirely appropriate. It was respectful ..low key .. showed emotions we all feel. No-one we spoke to in Devonport, including victims’ families, indicated they had any problem with it . 10am “Sunday Morning”
    @3AW693

    Given it’s a partisan R/W conservative audience, he would say that.

  33. Federal minister Greg Hunt said that it is up to states to “make their own decisions” about whether to shorten the wait time between a second dose and a booster shot beyond the five months that ATAGI has advised.

    Hunt avoids any mention of supply problems or the difficulties being faced by GPs whose funding has been reduced.

  34. Ballantyne
    I was making a general comment about politics without there being any one person in mind.

    Putting this government a side because its very ordinary but there are times when people can’t handle positive comments about the other side or criticism of their own side.

  35. The sky has darkened to twilight, the dog is barking at distant thunder that only she can hear, and my head feels heavy from the atmospheric pressure.

  38. Sohar @ #69 Sunday, December 19th, 2021 – 8:44 am

    The Channel 7 guy NickMcCallum7 was the one who put out a story that a man was bashed by an African gang in Melbourne’s outer east. He was bashed by whites and the police said there was never any suggestion that Africans were involved. McCallum has connections with right-wing groups.

    He’s a corporate media hack who knows what his audience wants to hear.

  40. GG writes:

    I have no problem with Morrison attending the school where that terrible tragedy occurred. He is PM and he was showing the Leadership that we would all want our politicians to show in the face of a devastating community disaster. I believe he and his family got the tone right and their actions and reactions reflect well on them as the representatives of the rest of Australia.

    My view is that this is not a national tragedy requiring the Prime Minister to attend, literally on his knees, while batteries of PR hacks organize the photo ops.

    In recent years there have been plenty of similar incidents: the Abdallah kids, with two others, mown down in Sydney by a drunk driver, countless house fires, bashing and beatings, murder suicides. Morrison didn’t lay wreaths at any of those, did he?

    It’s only in the past couple of months that he has dipped in with his two bob’s worth telling us all how gutted he would be “as a father” if [insert "National Tragedy" here] had happened to his family, while the cameras click away. Always the cameras…

    Accidents happen. Even tragic accidents happen. The idea that the entire nation is mourning these unfortunate children is just not true. It may be unfashionable to say that, or seem unfeeling. But it’s true. I’ll reserve the Feeling Gutted business until a tragedy happens a closer to home than Tasmania, to someone I know or care for, not when the tabloids and PR heartstrings pullers tell me to start emoting.

    Morrison was there because Braddon is in play, and for no other reason. The man is psychopathic, bullying, faithless and heartless. Don’t ever make the mistake of imputing a genuine feeling or motivation to this person. It’s all transactional with him.

    And I neither needed to read, nor read Twitter to figure that out.

  42. mexicanbeemer

    The problem with cancel culture has nothing to do with seeking respect or visibility but the treatment of history by today’s standards and the judgemental way that advocates hold people to account regardless of context.

    With the greatest of respect, that’s a load of crap. History is always subject to contemporary reassessment – that’s the nature of an academic discipline. Anyone who cries “historical revisionism” and instead promotes setting a certain historical viewpoint in stone is not interested in history, but misty-eyed propaganda instead. Just look at the reaction by certain sections of the British public to those pointing out the slave-owning links of a large number of the great country estates, or the reaction of the American Right towards the NY Times 1619 project exploring the centrality of slavery in US history.

    I’m enormously sceptical that “cancel culture” is a real thing. I can’t think of a single public figure who has been “cancelled” who hasn’t been able to continue saying whatever they please – especially right-wing figures.

    Holding people to account for their words is not an attack on free speech – it IS free speech. In a society which values civility and respect, there should be consequences for those who are uncivil and disrespectful – especially towards those with minimal power and influence.

  43. Melissa Davey
    @MelissaLDavey
    ·
    1m
    Not a word on masks from Perrottet as NSW hits 2,566 new cases, and now we have Hazzard up with a new catchphrase asking people to ‘join the club, the booster club’.

  45. This is a rather pointless presser.
    “Go ahead and get vaccinated”, ok well that’s a new one..
    There I was thinking the boy premier was about to put his hand up and say “yep, I screwed up, I relaxed restrictions far too soon”..
    Not so.

  46. I tried to join the Booster club yesterday but my gp practice refused point blank to do it any sooner than 30 December. I’m going to check out the local pharmacies tomorrow. Given my public facing role and the number of people flaunting the face mask on PT rule, if I can get it a week earlier I will.

  47. Aqualung

    Perrottet urging people to “go out and get your booster shot NOW”. What is the point when they are knocked back, like you.

  48. I thought I would contact my local pharmacy yesterday in the seemingly vain hope of getting the booster shot, given I had my 2nd jab less than 4 months ago.
    Yeah no worries they said, come in January 4, not a problem. No questions asked.
    Go figure.

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