Yuletide polling detritus

A Tasmanian state poll, issue salience and COVID management polling, and a voting intention data dump from Essential Research.

Unless Roy Morgan is feeling ambitious, we’re unlikely to see new polling until mid-to-late January, although The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns immediately after Christmas. If breakdowns are your game, Essential Research now provides a mother lode of them for all its polling going back the start of 2020, with voting intention broken down by (mainland) state, gender, age cohort, work status and region (categorised as inner metro, outer metro, provincial and rural). With the availability of this data, it will become worth my while to again provide state-level polling trends in BludgerTrack, as was done before the 2019 election. So stay tuned for that. For the time being, Essential’s state and gender results are now included in my poll data archive.

A few other polling morsels to report:

• The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania snuck out last week without me noticing. It found little change on the last poll in August, with the Liberals steady on 49%, Labor down two to 26% and the Greens steady on 13%, which in turn differed little from the March election result of Liberal 48.7%, Labor 28.2% and Greens 12.4%. Peter Gutwein’s 59-28 lead over Rebecca White as preferred premier is likewise hardly changed from 59-29 last time. The poll was conducted November 28 to December 5 from a sample of 1000.

• JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey on issue salience. Ratings for the government’s performance across a range of 20 issues are down across the board by zero to five points since July, with defence, security and terrorism and immigration remaining its strongest suits and cost of living and environment/climate change its weakest. Among many findings about COVID-19, the federal government is deemed to have performed well by 40% and poorly by 28%, while state and territory governments in aggregate are on 60% and 12% respectively, with both maintaining downward trends from a peak late last year. Cost of living and health are rated effectively equal as the issue the government should be most focused on, with 59% and 58% respectively including them among five choices out of a list of 20. The survey was conducted November 22 to November 24 from a sample of 1000.

• Recommended reading: Kevin Bonham on “the overrated impact of party preferencing decisions” and Alan Kohler on the Australian Electoral Commission.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,588 comments on “Yuletide polling detritus”

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  2. Shellbell @ #1333 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 3:19 pm

    Opening up for discussion

    https://twitter.com/andrewlilley_au/status/1473124844485160960

    The 5-day lag time is likely too short. And infections trend milder in children (which are noted as shifting from ~30% to ~75% of reported cases), or at least have so far. And he doesn’t really seem to have effectively controlled for the vastly different vaccination rates at the start of Delta and the start of Omicron, or the fact that breakthrough infections seem more commonplace with Omicron than Delta. Every single one of those things has the effect of reducing the expected CHR value for Omicron, even if Omicron is exactly as dangerous as Delta to an unvaccinted person.

    It’s interesting. But entirely premature and not adequately controlled to support any nonbiased comparison between Delta and Omicron hospitalization rates. Though he makes one anyways, of course. 🙄

  3. Assantdj @ #855 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 3:56 pm

    When are the media going to start asking about the number of elderly locked into their rooms in residential facilities because of the growing case numbers. How many families will spend Christmas without a cherished Elderly parent or grandparent. Working in aged care I know that for many residents the only time they see some members of their family is during the holiday season. This year they get to sit isolated and alone so that others can have their personal freedoms. Why are the elderly being denied their rights. The government has had almost two years to deal with the problems in aged care that result in the spread within a facility. Our parliamentarians are meant to rule for all and they have instead foisted draconian prison like measures on the innocent elderly, to satisfy the noisy minority who can’t get past their own personal importance to acknowledge that we live in a society that can only work if we consider others.

    Thanks for raising this Assantdj. Also don’t forget that those in hospital still have either no or very limited visitors due to the covid and security risks. My OH was in hospital for 2 weeks and found it very hard that even I was not allowed to visit

  5. My #2 Son heads off to the UK (100000+ cases/day) on January 3. He is due for a Booster on January 12. So he rang up the hospital where he got his first 2 vaccinations and they said they were legally unable to offer him an appointment until that 9 day interval was up. 😡

    At least he got 2 Pfizer, I guess. 🙁

  6. a r at 4:48 pm
    There will be some drastic changes in statistics when Domicron eventually makes its unwelcome entry into an aged care facility or two.

  9. C@tmomma @ #1355 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 4:50 pm

    My #2 Son heads off to the UK (100000+ cases/day) on January 3. He is due for a Booster on January 12. So he rang up the hospital where he got his first 2 vaccinations and they said they were legally unable to offer him an appointment until that 9 day interval was up. 😡

    At least he got 2 Pfizer, I guess. 🙁

    CMO Prof Kelly (I’m pretty sure) the other day asked providers to be flexible and consider bending ‘rules’ especially with people who are travelling, losing contact with their regular suppliers, and moving in and through high risk environments.

  10. Watching the news and the campaign for skin cancer. Sans Scotty thankfully.
    Can I encourage slip, slop, slap and get to your doctor asap if you notice anything weird.
    I had a spindle cell cancer removed my cranium last year.
    I now have a crater and skin transplant scar on my leg as a reminder.
    That was last year and I did delay due to the virus. I wonder how many other people did the same.
    Anyway the 12 month check was ok.
    Oh and wear a hat outdoors.

  11. poroti @ #899 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 4:52 pm

    a r at 4:48 pm
    There will be some drastic changes in statistics when Domicron eventually makes its unwelcome entry into an aged care facility or two.

    May be too late? From the Guardian blog
    Coronavirus cases at an Adelaide nursing home have climbed to six as South Australia reports a record 154 new infections and grapples with a blow-out in wait times at testing centres.

    SA Health says five of the infected residents are receiving specialist care at the facility with one admitted to hospital.

    “When a residential aged care facility resident tests positive to COVID-19, a response coordination team is activated and a health rapid response team can be deployed to assess the situation and provide support,” it said in a statement on Tuesday.

    “SA Health works with the aged care provider to ensure the resident receives the best possible care and that other residents are protected against the risk of COVID-19 transmission.”

    Tuesday’s case numbers included 134 that were locally acquired and left SA with record daily totals on five consecutive days and 556 active infections.

  12. Cat – try all the local chemists. Maybe even go for a Moderna if available…

    It’s hard to work out which outbreak will be worse (Bojomicron or Domicron)?
    My bet by then is that NSW will be going up whilst the UK will be on the downward slope, mainly due to almost everyone in the UK getting it…

  14. At least Sky News admits that Scotty is “out on the Campaign trail.” The ABC remains coy.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison has seized on revelations about the ‘Voices of’ candidate in the seat of Kooyong Dr Monique Ryan, who said she was a “cleanskin” – but that claim has been called into question.

    Dr Ryan admitted she was a Labor member for three years, only quitting in 2010, saying she was disillusioned with Kevin Rudd’s climate policy.

    “I said they were the Voices of Labor, and that’s proved positive that they are,” Mr Morrison said.

    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/independent-admits-she-was-a-labor-member/video/381f1fef62dd41d77b4cc1ee282be7c8

    That was 11 years ago, FGS.

  15. And more again:

    New South Wales health minister, Brad Hazzard, has warned local health workers “are in a state of exhaustion”, as “tourism testing” of people needing a negative Covid-19 status to travel interstate are behind “huge pressure” being placed on testing capacity.

    Hazzard noted testing requirements to enter South Australia and Tasmania, and said he had conducted “some outreach” to Queensland authorities, where there is a similar rule, “asking them what they might be able to do to help us”.

    Regarding those requirements for incoming travellers to those states to get a negative PCR test, Hazzard said “I think there is some value in those discussions about having rapid antigen testing instead of PCR testing but again we have to be respectful of other state governments and understand that they are trying to keep the community safe as well”.

    Hazzard has warned residents “to be very patient” when waiting for Covid-19 test results

    (guardian live stream)

    Major major problemo. I’m not sure of the current status of RATs availability.

  18. The Toorak Toff @ #1263 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 2:43 pm

    As a rusted-on ALP person, I welcome verbal intercourse with the enthusiastic Greens at the polling booth and usually given them my preferences.

    I’m not so happy with the ALP, which fails to see opportunities in Sturt, where I live, and has not yet found a candidate. Perhaps more surprising, there is no candidate for the state seat of Hartley, within Sturt. Once the bailiwick of the late, great Terry Groom, and later held by his protege Grace Portolesi, Hartley needs only a 4 percent swing to return to Labor in March but is totally off the radar of the powers that be.

    You should stand.

  19. A distressing story from Melbourne today.

    Nic MicroscopeTelescopeMusical noteSeedling Female sign
    @TheShyAtheist
    ·
    7h
    Pouting facePouting faceTo the bastard who just punched my son in the face for having the cheek, the gall, the audacity and utter temerity for wearing a mask whilst on his way to work…FUCK YOU! Pouting facePouting facePouting face
    Joan Evatt Retweeted

    Nic MicroscopeTelescopeMusical noteSeedling Female sign
    @TheShyAtheist
    Thanks everyone for your words of concern. My son was approaching Flinders Street Station this morning when he heard a voice yell out “take it off you masked up faggot”. He ignored it and walked on only to confronted by an older man (45-50) seconds later

    Nic MicroscopeTelescopeMusical noteSeedling Female sign
    @TheShyAtheist
    ·
    4h
    Replying to
    @TheShyAtheist
    Who ripped the mask from his face then punched him. My son received a bruised cheek bone and eye, thankfully nothing broken or seriously damaged. The perpetrator has been arrested and charged.
    I apologise for the swearing but no one hurts my children, I’m so angry!

  22. Eddy Jokovich
    @EddyJokovich
    ·
    4h
    Morrison: “We’ve got to treat people like adults”.
    No idea what this means or what he’s talking about. He’s been treating people like fools over the past three years with his stupid stunts, gimmicks, corruption and lies, so why make the change now?

  23. Covid hospitalistions in NSW up from 261 to 284 today, so up about 9% on the day, and up from 166 5 days ago. The trend isn’t looking good. ICU was up today from 33 to 39, after being on 28 2 days ago. It may well be that Omicron is more mild than Delta, but sheer weight of infection numbers can be expected to push hospitalisations, ICU and ultimately deaths much higher over the next 2-3 weeks, and we are certainly beginning to see that in the NSW data. Victorian numbers seem fairly stable, but with SA and Qld numbers also heading north rapidly, and with all the family gatherings taking place over the next few days, I’m feeling quite apprehensive about where this is headed. Surely mandatory mask-wearing and limits on high risk activities need to be brought back!

  25. With respect to the AEC’s Laming investigation, does that mean that there is a potential for a by-election some time early next year?

    Personally I think that with a federal election due in May there will not be enough time for this to occur.

  27. More sense from the experts – but will anyone listen? From the Guardian blog

    And here is Prof Adrian Esterman from the University of South Australia on why Australia needs an organisation like The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – which is the national public health agency of the United States

    “One way of protecting others at Christmas is to give yourself a rapid antigen test before family gatherings. Unfortunately, they are not available in shops or pharmacies in South Australia – I have no idea why!

    “Which really speaks to the desperate need for an Australian CDC where we can have national regulations about testing, close contact rules, etc. New Year’s resolution for Scott Morrison?”
    Facebook
    Twitter

    And Professor Jaya Dantas from Curtin University on RAT.

    “We need as a priority to roll out Antigen testing at very low costs across states that are seeing a spike in cases. The large numbers of people needing to be tested waiting over five hours for a swab is unsustainable and creates a huge strain on testing laboratories, reagents, and staff.

    “Whilst Pandemic Fatigue has set in we cannot let our guard down, relaxing public health measures or refusing vaccinations or boosters.”

  29. Dear autocrat
    Been there, done that. A bit long in the tooth these days.
    The Libs always run a strong postsl vote campaign. That nearly always gets them over the line in a close one. Labor doesn’t match them in that strategy, not even in Boothby. These days there’s no no effort at all in Sturt.

  31. Surging Omicron infections will overwhelm the health system unless some restrictions return, according to modelling prepared for national cabinet that also recommends bringing coronavirus vaccine boosters forward.

    The Doherty Institute modelling predicts that without low-to-medium restrictions such as density and visitor limits, waning vaccine protection against the Omicron variant puts Australia on track to hit about 200,000 cases a day by late January or early February.

    “Boosters alone will not be fast enough to halt the spread of Omicron,” the modelling, seen by The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age, says.

    The modelling by a team of researchers including professors Jodie McVernon and James McCaw says rapidly growing case numbers would lift hospitalisation rates to 4000 a day. This would push emergency departments to capacity and fill the nation’s intensive care units, with between 8000 and 10,000 patients expected to be admitted to ICUs.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/omicron-cases-could-hit-200-000-a-day-next-year-without-tougher-restrictions-doherty-modelling-warns-20211221-p59ja0.html

  32. Linda Seymour in Hughes sounds like a person who wants nothing to do with the Liberals ideological BS as well as Labors backroom factional plotting BS.

  33. Bludging Bloos says:
    Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 2:54 pm
    a r says:
    Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 2:42 pm

    Labor has absolutely no choice in this matter. If they are seen to be a parliamentary or legislative Trojan Horse for the Greens, they’re finished. The Greens of course are well aware of this, which is why they continually depict themselves as alt-Labor. They are trying to sabotage Labor. Labor will have to defeat the Greens as well as the LNP and other reactionaries. There is no alternative.
    __________________________________________________________
    I think some Labor people hate the Greens because the parties are sometimes in direct competition in what is regarded as traditional Labor heartland. Another reason is that the Greens hold up a mirror to Labor, sometimes showing it to be less than ideal, usually in regard to refugees and compromised policies on climate change.
    Labor’s policies are often compromised because that is the way a party seeking government actually wins elections.
    If the Greens were a serious contender for government, they too would be compromising their policies. I’d wager they would not be pressing for a 75% reduction in emissions.
    The best approach is to aim for majority Labor government and deal with the Greens where it is necessary. Preference swapping and steering progressive legislation through the Senate are the most obvious examples.
    The Greens’ usefulness is in maintaining our vision for the high ideals we’d like to achieve, while Labor’s task is to win government and work towards the ultimate realisation of those ideals.

  34. laughtong @ #1374 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 5:16 pm

    Melbourne because of opinion pieces like this stirring up the idiots. Comments are interesting to say the least.

    https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/opinion/rita-panahi/politicians-should-stay-out-of-our-lives-with-their-covid-restrictions/news-story/369c5027f8e824c77aa0ea688b77c8f4#share-tools

    Thank you. I can’t open that. I know the answer. Morrison and Murdoch and the political pile on – with Credlin the apogee. Let’s wait for them to call out the assault.

  36. Vic,

    1. Probably, yes if the facts are correct.
    2. The story is unverified and I don’t know any of the participants.
    3. It’s a second hand story.

    However, seems to be legit.

  37. @BelindaJones68
    ·
    6m
    There’s a certain arrogance about a man of great privilege, who as PM accumulates a $trillion debt yet poverty/homelessness increases, then in an election campaign poses for a photo op handing out food for the poor to try to win the votes of the poor & homeless

  39. With respect to the AEC’s Laming investigation, does that mean that there is a potential for a by-election some time early next year?

    Not unless Laming decides to resign his seat. I don’t see him doing that.

  40. Cameron C. @ #1373 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 5:18 pm

    With respect to the AEC’s Laming investigation, does that mean that there is a potential for a by-election some time early next year?

    Personally I think that with a federal election due in May there will not be enough time for this to occur.

    Isn’t there a regulation (not being a graduate in Political Science or Law I’m unqualified to say specifically), whereby, if a seat becomes vacant within a certain amount of time before an election a by-election does not have to be held and the seat remains unfilled until the election?

  41. Jackol @ #1387 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 5:34 pm

    With respect to the AEC’s Laming investigation, does that mean that there is a potential for a by-election some time early next year?

    Not unless Laming decides to resign his seat. I don’t see him doing that.

    Although if Morrison decides to offer him an Ambassador’s job, or somesuch, he may go before then so as not to be a headache for Morrison.

  42. Cameron C. @ #1374 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 4:48 pm

    With respect to the AEC’s Laming investigation, does that mean that there is a potential for a by-election some time early next year?

    Personally I think that with a federal election due in May there will not be enough time for this to occur.

    Considering that an election is expected no later than May, I would expect the seat to remain vacant until the election, depending on when the vacancy occurred, of course. (All hypothetical at this point, of course.)

    Nick Champion, the member for Spence, is planning a switch to state politics at the upcoming SA election. Should the state election occur before the federal election, he will have to resign from the House at some point. Should that happen, there will be a vacancy in that seat but it would most definitely be left vacant until the federal election.

    I’ve checked for by-elections that have occurred close to the dates of federal elections. There was one in 2001 that happened about three months before dissolution. In 1977, there was one that was even closer. In the latter case, the federal election was an early election. I believe there were some close ones in 1984 too (that also was an early election.)

    There might be others earlier than that but I couldn’t be bothered skimming the entire history of by-elections…

  43. Are you frickin kidding. Hysterical much Joshie?

    Josh frydenberg

    BREAKING: The ‘independent’ candidate in Kooyong who called themselves a “small L Liberal” and political “cleanskin” now admits to being a former long-standing member of the LABOR PARTY – what a joke!

    “Independents” are anything but, just a front for Labor & the Greens! https://t.co/Jzd73h2slP

  46. “The person who punched the guy is obviously mentally unwell.”

    Good. He can get better in jail. The same place all king-hit merchants or, as they are called now, coward-punchers, need to be. Just because you’re reading the Herald Sun doesn’t mean you can go around doing what they are all but saying.

  48. Good point:

    Dr Albie M. Rostrum PhD ⏱
    @DrAMVRostrumAO

    Do those thick headed conservative dolts #ScuMo & #Domicron realise their stubborn, pig headed actions are actually rewarding the unvaxxed anti-mask crowd who’ve done the wrong thing for two years, while punishing the vaxxed and mask-wearing law abiding citizens? #auspol #nswpol

  49. I’d love the Voices Of people to just pull Dr Ryan out and put up someone else in Kooyong who has never been a member of any party.

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