Unless Roy Morgan is feeling ambitious, we’re unlikely to see new polling until mid-to-late January, although The Australian should have Newspoll’s quarterly breakdowns immediately after Christmas. If breakdowns are your game, Essential Research now provides a mother lode of them for all its polling going back the start of 2020, with voting intention broken down by (mainland) state, gender, age cohort, work status and region (categorised as inner metro, outer metro, provincial and rural). With the availability of this data, it will become worth my while to again provide state-level polling trends in BludgerTrack, as was done before the 2019 election. So stay tuned for that. For the time being, Essential’s state and gender results are now included in my poll data archive.
A few other polling morsels to report:
• The latest EMRS poll of state voting intention in Tasmania snuck out last week without me noticing. It found little change on the last poll in August, with the Liberals steady on 49%, Labor down two to 26% and the Greens steady on 13%, which in turn differed little from the March election result of Liberal 48.7%, Labor 28.2% and Greens 12.4%. Peter Gutwein’s 59-28 lead over Rebecca White as preferred premier is likewise hardly changed from 59-29 last time. The poll was conducted November 28 to December 5 from a sample of 1000.
• JWS Research has released its latest True Issues survey on issue salience. Ratings for the government’s performance across a range of 20 issues are down across the board by zero to five points since July, with defence, security and terrorism and immigration remaining its strongest suits and cost of living and environment/climate change its weakest. Among many findings about COVID-19, the federal government is deemed to have performed well by 40% and poorly by 28%, while state and territory governments in aggregate are on 60% and 12% respectively, with both maintaining downward trends from a peak late last year. Cost of living and health are rated effectively equal as the issue the government should be most focused on, with 59% and 58% respectively including them among five choices out of a list of 20. The survey was conducted November 22 to November 24 from a sample of 1000.
• Recommended reading: Kevin Bonham on “the overrated impact of party preferencing decisions” and Alan Kohler on the Australian Electoral Commission.
“I hope you’ll forgive me for replying to Lars, but I’m getting tired of its attacking you.”
***
Lizzie, why do you insist on coming to the defence of abusive, nasty people such as Cat and PB’s newest sock puppet? Can you not see what they do here on a daily basis? I really want to believe that you are totally oblivious to their conduct, that’s why I’ve given you the benefit of the doubt so many times. I think you’re actually a decent person who has just missed what’s going on here. I urge you to reassess the situation and reconsider who you align yourself with (and by that I mean posters on this blog, not Labor – this isn’t about Labor or the Greens at all).
Lisel von Trapp
“Of course uncouth and vulgar people like Kakadu and Ven see covid as a political issue to be prosecuted for perceived political advantage. VIC good NSW bad etc etc”
I don’t recall ever seeing or promoting covid as a political issue. But if I’ve ever called out the Morrison regime for incompetence or obfuscation in dealing with the pandemic, then I’ll certainly own up to that.
It’s also abundantly clear that from the get-go Morrison and his ministers have lauded the NSW government for its response to the virus, while condemning the Vic government. So you (LVT), as a diehard defender of ScoMo, are on very shaky ground with your “VIC good NSW bad” comment.
Rex Douglas @ #1249 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 1:27 pm
Hopefully none. Unless the only alternatives on the ballot are Nats, PHON’s, PUP/UAP’s, anti-vaxxers, and the like. Those are legitimately worse.
But usually there’s at least a Greens candidate who could be slotted before the Libs. And sounds like lots of independents are coming too. So the Lib should be 3rd/4th at best.
“(shifting on 43%, for example, would be out of the question)”
***
Well it shouldn’t be. The science tells us we need 75% to stay under 1.5 degrees of warming. Locking in 43% means that we will be putting ourselves on course for over 3 degrees of warming.
Taking serious action to address the climate emergency should never be out of the question.
What should be out of the question is putting one’s own political self-interests ahead of the planet’s future, which is exactly what Labor is doing.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 2:27 pm
a r @ #1244 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 2:23 pm
Bludging Bloos @ #1241 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 1:15 pm
Nah. Labor govern alone or not at all.
An extremely dubious position to take on a ~36% primary vote.
That’s the wildcard in the upcoming election.
Wildcard? This is nonsense. Scrutineers will tell you that Lib voters tend to be more likely to follow Lib HTVs than Labor voters are to follow Labor HTVs.
Australian federal politics is characterised by entrenched Labor-phobic reflexes and behaviours. The Greens, the LNP, ON, the UAP, the Lite, the Indies and the other cults are as one on Labor. They are defined by their resentments, their jealousy, their fear, their hostility to Labor. They’re all the same in this respect.
Labor has to campaign and win in spite of them all.
Firefox
I don’t need your condescension, thank you. I align myself with no one.
Firefox says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 2:30 pm
“I hope you’ll forgive me for replying to Lars, but I’m getting tired of its attacking you.”
***
Lizzie, why do you insist on coming to the defence of …..Cat
Cos Lars is the eternal cat-baiter. He trolls C@t every time he posts. Nath is no better. For them, bludging is C@t teasing. Lizzie is quite right.
Politics in Australia is about keeping the ALP out of office.
Firefox says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 2:36 pm
“(shifting on 43%, for example, would be out of the question)”
The local Green uses climate change to campaign against Labor. Ho-hum.
Sceptic @ #1246 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 1:26 pm
Sure.
Doesn’t change the fact that it’s pretty arrogant to absolutely demand a unilateral government when barely more than a third of voters are supporting that. That position is basically telling 64% of voters to fuck off. The unilateral government will never happen if they actually listen to that advice.
Get an outright majority to actually vote for your unilateral government, then tell everyone else to get stuffed. The order of operations matters.
lizzie @ #1240 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 2:15 pm
—
Lizzie I looked up the penalties Laming could be facing, abit of a slap on the wrist if y0u ask me .
“A. The penalty for a breach of the authorisation requirements by:
an individual is up to 120 penalty units (at 1 July 2020, a penalty unit was $222, so a penalty of up to $26,640);
a body corporate, is five times the penalty for an individual (i.e. up to 600 penalty units or up to $132,200)”
https://www.aec.gov.au/About_AEC/Publications/Backgrounders/authorisation.htm
Just saw Morrison banging on about “Personal Responsibility”. Code for “You’re on your own”.
As a rusted-on ALP person, I welcome verbal intercourse with the enthusiastic Greens at the polling booth and usually given them my preferences.
I’m not so happy with the ALP, which fails to see opportunities in Sturt, where I live, and has not yet found a candidate. Perhaps more surprising, there is no candidate for the state seat of Hartley, within Sturt. Once the bailiwick of the late, great Terry Groom, and later held by his protege Grace Portolesi, Hartley needs only a 4 percent swing to return to Labor in March but is totally off the radar of the powers that be.
“I don’t need your condescension, thank you.”
***
I was actually being nice to you and giving you the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps I was wrong to. *shrug*
a r says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 2:35 pm
Rex Douglas @ #1249 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 1:27 pm
How many Labor 1st pref voters preference the Libs second …?
Hopefully none. Unless the only alternatives on the ballot are Nats, PHON’s, PUP/UAP’s, anti-vaxxers, and the like. Those are legitimately worse.
I for one will place the Greens below the LNP. They are absolutely unfit to hold their seats in the Parliament. Beyond that, they are merely trolls. They do not deserve a vote.
a r @ #1254 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 2:35 pm
PHON, UAP, antivaxxers, freakshow indy’s and the like are in most cases no chance to win the seat, so strategically it’s better to pref them above the LibNats.
UK Cartoons:
And everyone’s favourite 2 things – cricket AND politics 🙂
Happy Christmas from Jeremy Banx @Banxcartoons:
BSA Bobs at 2:42 pm
It’s his “new improved” version of ‘I don’t hold a hose, mate’
Firefox says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 2:44 pm
“I don’t need your condescension, thank you.”
***
I was actually being nice to you and giving you the benefit of the doubt. Perhaps I was wrong to. *shrug*
As usual, acting from a sense of infallible superiority, you mistake condescension for magnanimity.
Lizzie sees right thru it.
C@T was pinged by William for wishing OC death.
Under the gun she disclosed “ a serious health issue but not cancer”
At other times when under similar scrutiny c@t claimed to have covid scares , ember attacks and other things I have forgotten. Presumably to attract the sympathy vote from people like Lizzie.
Generally I ignore c@t as does nath, yet c@t feels empowered to comment freely on everybody’s posts in nasty and patronising terms and then plays the victim card when she is called on her behaviours.
a r says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 2:42 pm
Labor has absolutely no choice in this matter. If they are seen to be a parliamentary or legislative Trojan Horse for the Greens, they’re finished. The Greens of course are well aware of this, which is why they continually depict themselves as alt-Labor. They are trying to sabotage Labor. Labor will have to defeat the Greens as well as the LNP and other reactionaries. There is no alternative.
“Cos Lars is the eternal cat-baiter. He trolls C@t every time he posts. Nath is no better. For them, bludging is C@t teasing. Lizzie is quite right.”
***
Cat is the worst troll on this blog by quite a large margin. She spends her life on here abusing and obsessing over anyone who doesn’t agree with her, often in the most disgusting ways imaginable.
Firefox (AnonBlock)
Friday, December 17th, 2021 – 11:42 am
Comment #624
Griffith, Richmond, Macnamara, Wills, Higgins, Brisbane, Ryan, Canberra, Cooper, and Kooyong. All of them are realistic chances for the Greens.
—————–
I really don’t want to rain on your Christmas wish parade Firefox, but I think you are being unrealistic or simply ingesting Bob Brown and Bandt’s propaganda without question.
Griffith is a seat where the LNP and ALP went backwards in 2019 and the Greens PV improved 6.7%. The Greens would have to take 7.7 % away from the Labor PV to win second spot in 2022. Not “realistic” but the best of the Greens seat prospects at the moment.
In Richmond, the Greens would have to take 11.4% away from the Labor PV to win second spot in 2022. Not “realistic”
In Macnamara, Labor PV improved 5.2% and the Greens PV improved a measly 0.1 % in 2019. The Greens would have to take 7.6% away from the Labor PV to win second spot in 2022. Not “realistic”
In Wills, the Greens went backward in both PV and 2PP in 2019. However, similar to Macnamara, the Greens would have to take 7.6% away from the Labor PV to win second spot in 2022. Not “realistic” when the Labor incumbent is on 44.1 % PV.
In Higgins, the Greens PV went backwards and the Labor PV improved by 8.8% in 2019 to regain second spot on the PV count. That improvement for Labor took the Greens out of the race in this seat. Permanently, I suspect
In Brisbane, the Greens came within 2,000 votes of taking second spot on the PV in 2019. However, getting past the Liberal with 47.8% PV at the last election is a very big ask.
In Ryan the Greens would have to take 4.1% of the PV from Labor to get into second spot and then overcome the 48.6% PV scored by the Coalition in the last election. The Greens will have to take a chunk at this election in the hopes of a genuine shot at the next election I would have thought.
In Canberra , the Greens would have to beat the Liberal by 4.5% on 2019 PV figures and get Liberal preferences directed to the Greens (aka Melbourne) and then overcome the Labor incumbents 40.5% PV to win this seat. Definitely not “realistic.”
Firefox says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 2:57 pm
“Cos Lars is the eternal cat-baiter. He trolls C@t every time he posts. Nath is no better. For them, bludging is C@t teasing. Lizzie is quite right.”
***
Cat is the worst troll on this blog by quite a large margin.
I’ve had my disputes with C@t too. But she’s not a troll.
“As usual, acting from a sense of infallible superiority, you mistake condescension for magnanimity.”
***
I think you’re in the same boat – a decent person who doesn’t realise what’s been going on.
It has nothing to do with superiority or anything like that and everything to do with the sustained abuse that I and others have been subjected to by these people.
“I really don’t want to rain on your Christmas wish parade Firefox”
***
You’re not – all those 10 seats are realistically winnable for the Greens at the coming election. Many of your calculations are way off and double the swing that is actually required. You can keep telling yourself that they’re not realistic if that makes you feel better this festive season but you would be wise not to underestimate us.
LvT:
Oh dear. Surely that crosses some threshold of utter bullshitness.
poroti says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 2:47 pm
BSA Bobs at 2:42 pm
Just saw Morrison banging on about “Personal Responsibility”.
It’s his “new improved” version of ‘I don’t hold a hose, mate’
Covid is a socially transmissible disease. Social measures are required to limit transmission and thereby to reduce the incidence of disease.
Back in the day, polio, TB, diphtheria, typhoid, small pox, yellow fever and the Spanish flu among others – including HIV and other blood-borne and/or sexually transmitted diseases – were dealt with by social/collective/common means rather than by “individually-defined” measures. Covid has been excluded from WA by the use of socially-uniform measures.
Morrison is an idiot. He is a complete clown. He is elevating wilful ignorance to the level of national policy.
I don’t like to dredge up posts from the previous night and usually I don’t stew in them but this was from last night (you’ll never guess who posted it!) and I cannot let it slide:
It was followed by two condescending paragraphs that lectured me on things like gerrymandering and other stuff one pretty much learns in the first week of any US politics course.
1. I do know what I am talking about on the topic. Far more than you do. Sorry but listening to some podcasts doesn’t make you an expert, just like playing a Nintendo Switch game that lets you design basic games doesn’t make you a software developer.
2. The “doomposting” you were referring to was a mild, vague, tentative and (most importantly) not that controversial outset prediction that the Dems will lose their razor-thin majorities in both chambers in the midterms. It’s fine if you don’t agree with me but the tone was not one of doom. In fact, by mentioning that it usually happens to the party that holds the White House, I am pretty much framing it as a routine result (therefore one that’s not too alarming.)
If you don’t like what someone predicts, tough luck. It’s a prediction. Until the outcome is known it is no more or less correct than yours.
Just to be clear: the insult doesn’t bother me that much. I get worse (and have probably given worse) and I would have just let it go to the keeper. It’s the attempt to belittle and suppress anything you don’t like reading because your bloated ego can’t handle it that is the problem. I will continue to use my knowledge and experience to cover the topic of US politics how I want and, and I can’t emphasise this enough, I will predict whatever the hell I want. That’s all I have to say on this.
For NSW + Vic. peeps some ‘Know Your Plague “……..
..
.
UK doctor reveals unique Omicron variant symptoms which differ from Delta
A noted British doctor is highlighting symptoms that distinguish the Omicron variant from the common cold, and even other Covid strains.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/uk-doctor-reveals-unique-omicron-variant-symptoms-which-differ-from-delta/news-story/c04f28dc199af61b1a75ab849451a838
Firefox @ #1276 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 3:07 pm
—
Yada Yada . I have decided that having fun on PB requires me to put sometimes very offensive one eyed zealots who can’t deal with facts, from any Party, in the block bin. Say hello to P1 et al for me. Happy Christmas to you.
Note: My previous post was written independently of and without any knowledge of the most recently posted comments that happen to be about the same person. I am not here for a gang-up.
Lizzie and EB, re Laming’s seat of Bowman:
The Liberal candidate replacing Laming for this seat is Henry Pike, who won preselection against four women nominees. The Labor candidate is the impressive Donisha Duff. Currently it is held on a margin of more than 10%, but this is not deterring friends of mine from working very hard to raise funds for Donisha.
Bennelong Lurker @ #1284 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 3:14 pm
That could be another seat cherry ripe for a Voices Indy.
Firefox says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 3:02 pm
“As usual, acting from a sense of infallible superiority, you mistake condescension for magnanimity.”
***
I think you’re in the same boat…
You’re mistaken about C@t….she’s not a troll. She is angry a lot of the time. But she’s not a troll. Anger is not a moral or bludging failure. It’s a downright pain for those who experience it and those around them. Lars and Nath continually incite that in C@t. They are adroit in that.
You’re mistaken about lizzie too. Your attempt to correct her is entirely misplaced.
Bludging Bloos @ #1132 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 3:16 pm
I don’t suffer fools gladly is the best way to put it.
“Yada Yada .”
***
You’re blocking me over that reply? Differing opinions upset you that much? Bit of an overreaction to say the least but suit yourself.
Rex Douglas @ #1284 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 3:16 pm
—
Awesome.
Firefox says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 3:07 pm
“I really don’t want to rain on your Christmas wish parade Firefox”
***
You’re not – all those 10 seats are realistically winnable for the Greens at the coming election.
If the election becomes a referendum for change, then the Green vote will decline significantly. When Labor do well, the Green vote will fall. There is no evidence at all that voters are becoming more susceptible to Green tunes. None. This is one of the pre-conditions (necessary tho not sufficient) for a good result for Labor.
The strife in the Reactionary plurality is positive for Labor. And this foreshadows gloom for the Greens. Good. With luck, Labor’s vote will rise enough that they will improve their Senate representation at the expense of the Greens. This is necessary for the reconstruction of the plurality. Oh let it come to pass!!!
Wow, what thin skin you have, Wat Tyler. No one is allowed to critique your posts. And if they say something even slightly negative about you, then you’re going to stew about it. Okay. I guess.
Note to self: Avoid Wat Tyler at all costs. He’s studied Political Science so he’s better than me. Especially when it comes to posting opinions on a psephological blog.
Also, do not listen to podcasts by people who may know more than he ever will about American politics because he’s studied it.
Okay, got it.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 3:20 pm
Bludging Bloos @ #1132 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 3:16 pm
Firefox says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 3:02 pm
“As usual, acting from a sense of infallible superiority, you mistake condescension for magnanimity.”
***
I think you’re in the same boat…
You’re mistaken about C@t….she’s not a troll. She is angry a lot of the time. But she’s not a troll. Anger is not a moral or bludging failure. It’s a downright pain for those who experience it and those around them. Lars and Nath continually incite that in C@t. They are adroit in that.
You’re mistaken about lizzie too. Your attempt to correct her is entirely misplaced.
I don’t suffer fools gladly is the best way to put it.
If by this you mean to call me a fool, then I will have added my follies to yours.
“I don’t suffer fools gladly is the best way to put it.”
***
Nah, you’re just a coward who runs away or resorts to abuse whenever you feel politically threatened (all the time).
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/21/nsw-coroner-praises-heroic-actions-of-those-who-tried-to-help-home-and-away-actor-jessica-falkholt
4 years to get a coronial report for a head on collision
Bludging Bloos @ #1291 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 3:26 pm
No, not you. The people who have criticised me today. I thank you for defending me. Kind of. I’m not always angry. 🙂
”
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 1:32 pm
Of course uncouth and vulgar people like Lars von Trier and nath see covid as a political issue to be prosecuted for perceived political advantage.
Fixed it.
”
Looks about right. 🙂
Firefox says:
Tuesday, December 21, 2021 at 3:26 pm
Nah, you’re just a coward …
Oh dear. That is most regrettable. Really. Very unfortunate.
Jackol @ #1277 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 3:11 pm
He’s a Liberal. He lies. 🙂
poroti @ #1100 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 3:13 pm
p:
That is a “clinically unhelpful” (ie fairly crap) article. Relative proportion of “night sweats” in infective syndromes vary with both the pathogen and the individuals who get infected. It’s like saying that a headache is characteristic of meningitis
Oops. Forgot about the first rule of arguing with a narcissist: Don’t.
Rex Douglas @ #1249 Tuesday, December 21st, 2021 – 2:27 pm
You’d be surprised. I think, and I don’t know, but I think it’s because some people would prefer one or other of the major parties to govern and so they put their preferred party first, and the other major party second.