Newspoll and BludgerTrack breakdowns

Newspoll state breakdowns point to swings to Labor of between 3% and 5%, with the extraordinary exception of Western Australia.

Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll brings its regular Christmas present of quarterly breakdowns, combining results from its polls from October to December, allowing for state and other breakdowns with plausible large samples and tolerable margins of error. It shows Labor with leading substantially in each state with the distinct exception of Queensland: by 53-47 in New South Wales, out from 52-48 in the previous quarter, for a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election; 56-44 in Victoria, in from 58-42 last quarter, for a swing to Labor of about 3%; 55-45 in South Australia, a swing of about 3%; and, most remarkably, by 55-45 in Western Australia, out from 54-46 last quarter for a swing approaching 11%. The Coalition retains a lead of 54-46 in Queensland, in from 55-45 last quarter, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%.

The gender breakdowns are unchanged on last quarter with Labor leading 54-46 among women and 52-48 among men. However, Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 age cohort from 65-35 to 69-31, with the others little changed (54-46 to Labor among 35-to-49, 53-47 and 60-40 to the Coalition among 50-to-64 and 65-plus. Labor appeares to have gained particularly among lower income cohorts over the past year, with current leads of 55-45 among those with less than $50,000 household income and 56-44 among those with between $50,000 and $100,000. These figures compare respectively with 51-49 to Labor and 51-49 to the Coalition in the April-to-June result. Labor’s deficit among those with more than $150,000 is down over this time from 56-44 to 53-47, but its 52-48 lead among those on $100,000 to $150,000 is down from 53-47. The breakdowns combined the results of four polls conducted between September 29 to December 4 from an overall sample of 6102.

The Newspoll release provides new data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which I am pleased to announce now includes its own state breakdowns that you can explored by clicking on the tabs (if it isn’t working for you, hard refreshing and trying again later seems to do the trick). Those of you who saw this before I added the Newspoll numbers will note that they have softened what was previously a double-digit swing in Queensland, which points to a disconnect between Newspoll’s numbers for the state and those of Essential Research, which have generally credited Labor with a two-party lead in the state.

Also yesterday from the Age/Herald was a piece on Resolve Strategic’s policy and political performance data, which I don’t believe adds anything to what was included with the regular monthly result, though it’s served in a form that shows how these often-ignored numbers have tracked over time. Specifically, the Coalition has weakened in its strongest areas, with leads diminishing on economic management, national security and COVID-19, while holding steady on the weaker ground of jobs and wages, health care and environment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,165 comments on “Newspoll and BludgerTrack breakdowns”

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  1. A 15% daily increase in NSW Covid numbers means about 4 million infections by Australia Day, about half the NSW population. It probably won’t come to that, but a million would seem to be likely.

    So based upon experience with the Virus so far that’s about 100,000 hospitalisations in January into early February and 10,000 deaths, about 300 a day from late January into February.

    But Omicron is milder? How mild? No one knows. There are no doubt projections, but no one is telling us. We’re being encouraged to go out to superspreader evens tomorrow night and welcome in 2022 and watch the fireworks.

    So, how much milder? By a factor or 30, like a normal flu? Very unlikely. Let’s be optimistic and say it’s 5. So “only” 20,000 hospitalisations during January into February, maybe 4,000 in ICU, 2,000 deaths (60 a day in a month’s time). Can the health system cope with this?

    That’s just NSW. At least double these numbers for Australia as a whole because NSW has now infected the remainder of the country (with the still possible exception of WA).

    That’s the cost of the negligence and blithering incompetence. Unless they are even more incompetent than I give them credit for, the Federal and NSW Governments know that something like this will happen. There is no plan, other than finding something to distract and someone other than themselves to blame.

  2. steve davis:

    What would happen if a more lethal variant turned up in Australia and throughout the world now? The outcomes are too hideous to contemplate.

    This is something the ‘let it rip’ types never consider. Let’s see how good ‘the economy’ is if that happens.

    Having more people exposed to the current variants of the virus allows it more opportunity to mutate.

  3. rhwombat:

    Um. No. Omega (mega meaning large) is the long vowel :”oh-mega”. Omicron (micron meaning small) is the short vowel: “o-micron”. Love, Dennis the (virological) Pedant (aka rhwombat)

    Actually, most Anglos pronounce omega starting with a schwa vowel (the unstressed ‘uh’ vowel as at the start of the words about, again, ago), which is neither a long O nor a short o.

  4. Getting infected now is like receiving an extra booster shot.

    It is extremely unlikely that any new mutation in the short to medium term will be so substantial as to make your vaccinations irrelevant. Vaccination remains highly effective against hospitalisation, and if you do get infected your symptoms will, on average, be significantly milder.

    If a more deadly strain did emerge getting omicron beforehand would only be an advantage. Experience, and natural selection, however, suggests that diseases tend to become milder over time, not more lethal. A virus doesn’t survive and replicate if it is regularly killing its hosts.

    At the moment we are seeing a bunch of vaccinated people get infected for the first time. The odds of any of these vaccinated people ending up in hospital are dramatically lower than would otherwise have been the case.

    There is no evidence at all that our hospitals are likely to fill up with vaccinated COVID patients any time soon.

  5. What if a more deadly form of the virus decides to ‘do you slowly’ and thus gives itself plenty of time to replicate and hence survive?

  6. Thanks J. That is very cool. Ice is an amazing ‘element’, particularly in the mountains, but we climbers tend to avoid rivers and melt phenomena like frazil ice because they are very difficult to navigate.

    NW; I had to Google it. 🙂

    DW turned on the TV the other day to some kind of international “ice climbing” event.
    It looked the same as Olympic “rock climbing”, but with ice picks, crampons and “no fucks given”.
    (i.e. The venue has to replace the wall surface and holds.)

  7. Thanks Cat- forgot about those other seats.


    NSW health Minister Mr Hazzard said everyone in NSW “is going to get Omicron at some stage”.

    Lovely. Thanks for that Mr Hazzard. Too bad for all the comorbidity and elderly people in the community. They just have to suck it up do they ?

    Here in Tassie, a woman living in Strahan has to drive 2.5 hours to Burnie to get a Covid 19 test (ABC Breakfast Radio, Tasmania). Forget about RAT kits getting supplied to the town of Strahan any time soon after our cases jumped to 400 +in recent days.

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