Newspoll and BludgerTrack breakdowns

Newspoll state breakdowns point to swings to Labor of between 3% and 5%, with the extraordinary exception of Western Australia.

Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll brings its regular Christmas present of quarterly breakdowns, combining results from its polls from October to December, allowing for state and other breakdowns with plausible large samples and tolerable margins of error. It shows Labor with leading substantially in each state with the distinct exception of Queensland: by 53-47 in New South Wales, out from 52-48 in the previous quarter, for a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election; 56-44 in Victoria, in from 58-42 last quarter, for a swing to Labor of about 3%; 55-45 in South Australia, a swing of about 3%; and, most remarkably, by 55-45 in Western Australia, out from 54-46 last quarter for a swing approaching 11%. The Coalition retains a lead of 54-46 in Queensland, in from 55-45 last quarter, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%.

The gender breakdowns are unchanged on last quarter with Labor leading 54-46 among women and 52-48 among men. However, Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 age cohort from 65-35 to 69-31, with the others little changed (54-46 to Labor among 35-to-49, 53-47 and 60-40 to the Coalition among 50-to-64 and 65-plus. Labor appeares to have gained particularly among lower income cohorts over the past year, with current leads of 55-45 among those with less than $50,000 household income and 56-44 among those with between $50,000 and $100,000. These figures compare respectively with 51-49 to Labor and 51-49 to the Coalition in the April-to-June result. Labor’s deficit among those with more than $150,000 is down over this time from 56-44 to 53-47, but its 52-48 lead among those on $100,000 to $150,000 is down from 53-47. The breakdowns combined the results of four polls conducted between September 29 to December 4 from an overall sample of 6102.

The Newspoll release provides new data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which I am pleased to announce now includes its own state breakdowns that you can explored by clicking on the tabs (if it isn’t working for you, hard refreshing and trying again later seems to do the trick). Those of you who saw this before I added the Newspoll numbers will note that they have softened what was previously a double-digit swing in Queensland, which points to a disconnect between Newspoll’s numbers for the state and those of Essential Research, which have generally credited Labor with a two-party lead in the state.

Also yesterday from the Age/Herald was a piece on Resolve Strategic’s policy and political performance data, which I don’t believe adds anything to what was included with the regular monthly result, though it’s served in a form that shows how these often-ignored numbers have tracked over time. Specifically, the Coalition has weakened in its strongest areas, with leads diminishing on economic management, national security and COVID-19, while holding steady on the weaker ground of jobs and wages, health care and environment.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,165 comments on “Newspoll and BludgerTrack breakdowns”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Further losing the plot, Perrottet has urged the public to press ahead with plans to holiday in regional areas recovering from bushfire and other natural disasters despite escalating COVID-19 cases forcing many people to cancel or delay trips.
    This isn’t America, so please stop acting like a Yank, urges an unimpressed Ross Gittins in this good read.
    High vaccination rates have ended lockdowns on Australia’s east coast, but shortcomings within our testing and isolation systems have been exposed by the current outbreak, says the SMH editorial.
    According to The Age, Victoria’s COVID-19 response commander says the Omicron variant is now “established in the community”, as wait times for testing continued to swell across Melbourne on Boxing Day. Jeroen Weimar said on Sunday health authorities had moved to random genomic screening of positive cases to decipher the spread of the variant, as they expect “Omicron to gather pace in Victoria”.
    Timna Jacks looks at what we seem to know about the Omicron variant so far.
    “Don’t let La Nina fool you, Black Summer could be around the corner”, warns Greg Mullins.
    Defence’s painfully slow procurement process will be overhauled amid growing strategic urgency, slashing up to 12 months from the four years it typically takes to get projects to contract stage, writes The Australian’s Ben Packham.
    Strike Force Trawler’s 22 investigators spend their days online, impersonating children or paedophiles before a sting. They have never lost a case in court, explains Sally Rawsthorne.
    A great summary of England’s woes on day one of the Boxing Day Test from the erudite Gideon Haigh.
    For years, some experts have warned that the global economy is overly reliant on lean production and faraway factories, exposed to the inevitable shock. The pandemic has seemingly validated that view. “Lean and Fragile” is the antithesis of “Robust and Buffered”.
    What to Expect When You’re Expecting has been a trusty companion for a generation of expectant parents. But those using the book’s app have also found a “community” section rife with scare stories and conspiracy theories, says The Washington Post.

    Cartoon Corner

    Matt Golding

    Stan Eales

    Mark Knight

    John Spooner

    From the US

  2. Thanks BK for your morning roundup. Matt Golding’s cartoon is somewhat prescient.

    Now off to get COVID tested… my son’s second and my partner’s third. I’m a newbie.

    Packed books, snacks and water to while away the time. Goons on the iPhone for some much neeeded comedy relief. Hopefully we won’t be in the queue for too long and the weather is cool. There is of course the cricket in a few hours on the ABC…

  3. William – those WA figures are very interesting at 11% and do not bode well for the Feds. That swing is significant.

    Clearly the locals are quite happy with how McGovern is running things and very unhappy with ScoMo et al

    Will Dutton be making some calls today?

  4. Off to get a test my self this morning out of an abundance of caution due to being advised that I was in a store at the same time as a positive case. Also to be the guinea pig for my son so I can see how long tests are taking to come back.

    I shall be taking my phone in the car with me, where I can keep an eye on PB. 🙂

  5. Cat @ at 0637

    Wise move and good luck. What are the queues like in your end of town?

    BK & Cat – What’s the feeling like amongst the locals in your area at the moment given the recent news, reintroduction of restrictions, etc.

  6. G_EL,
    I’m about to find out about the queue! I’ll be heading out before the local testing site opens at 9am. That will give me time to see how long it’s taking, so that, in a ball park way my son will have an idea how long he needs to wait when he goes to get his test on Saturday, prior to leaving the country. Also how long is the wait time for results. He needs to have them 48-72 hours prior to take-off. Luckily, if the result doesn’t arrive on time he can also get tested at the airport, if he goes in early enough. Phew!

  7. EB from previous thread:

    “Some of the things post election analysts noted were things like –

    (1) The popular obsession with the pre election 2PP poll numbers,”

    But in most lower house elections 2PP has been highly predictive – and except perhaps in cases where a substantial number of independents/minor party reps get up (and we all know there have been some increasing trends in that direction) it’s the measure that is most important because either Labor or non-Labor will form government, in majority or minority. The proliferation of third parties/independents might mean individual 2PP estimates have greater inherent uncertainty – and maybe that’s the point analysts are making.

    (2) Headline assumptions of a uniform 2PP swing which never happens;”

    This one seems to me to be a furphy. For as long as I can recall analysts have in fact made the point expressly that 2PP swings are never uniform. However historical experience suggested that in general the unders and overs will balance out; if the 2PP pendulum lists 5 seats on a 4% 2PP margin, a party receiving a swing in that direction will generally pick up 5 seats, or go very close, but they won’t necessarily be those 5 most vulnerable seats on the pendulum. I don’t know if there’s been any recent research suggesting that this pattern is observed less consistently now than in previous eras.

  8. The Age 27/12
    The actions of the national executive should be of concern to everyone in the Labor Movement. I was disendorsed because I was outside the new, controlling factional power alliance. Performance, results and big picture ideas did not count because Broadmeadows is a safe seat, too valuable in the eyes of factional powerbrokers not to control.
    Sorry Frank but people in the labour movement just don’t care. It’s all about power.

  9. Lol Taylormade

    Here is something might interest you

    A second major taxpayer-funded market research project about community attitudes to Covid-19 undertaken by Jim Reed, a long-term researcher for the Liberal party pollster Crosby Textor, has been handed to both the prime minister and the treasurer’s political offices.

    Officials from the Treasury on Monday confirmed during a Senate estimates hearing the market research, valued at more than $500,000, had informed a $15m taxpayer-funded advertising campaign about economic recovery, and the underlying research reports had been emailed to Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg’s offices.

    Last week, officials confirmed a separate trove of market research about the coronavirus undertaken by Resolve Strategic, Reed’s current firm, under a contract worth $541,750, had also gone to the prime minister’s office – prompting Labor to raise the alarm about “thinly disguised political research” being funded by Australian taxpayers rather than by the Liberal party, as would be the convention.

  10. This is a fantastic comment, focused laser-like on the performance of the Morrison government, from yesterday’s David Crowe column:

    peter wong

    ‘Albanese gains ground but PM still leads on economy, security, and pandemic’
    But Morrison has NOT provided:
    •Governance. Establishes clear roles, responsibilities, and accountabilities in managing COVID:
    •Scope Management. Coordinates/controls changes to scope and ensures contractual
    commitments are defined and managed. Procurement and supply of vaccines
    •Communication Management. Develops a strategy along with an operational plan that
    enables effective communication to the States and to all Australians in relation to the
    Pandemic (costing Billions to Economy and massive health issues)
    •Value Management. Identifies and tracks the realization of benefits for all Australians in Age
    Care, For women, Effective discrimation legislation & Anti-corruption legislation
    •Issue Management. Captures, surfaces, escalates, and resolves unplanned events that jeopardize the attainment of a milestone or benefit – Hospitals, Medical resources national vaccine testing directives
    •Risk Management. Captures, surfaces, escalates, and provides analysis and monitoring to risks
    that jeopardize the attainment of a milestone or benefit to all Australians
    •Quality Management. Ensures that the processes exist that are required for the programme to satisfy the needs for which it was undertaken
    •Financial Management. Promotes delivery within budget by increasing the economy’s ability
    to track and manage revenues and costs – A trillion dollar debt in the economy under the LNP
    •Procurement Management- Provides a structured approach for managing the procurement
    needs of the programme by overseeing, tracking, or managing subcontracts in purchase of
    vaccines and defence contracts
    •Diplomacy Management with France, China and even America.
    •Integrity. Dealing with finances and not Pork Barrelling for LNP gain and lying
    Lists goes on ……………

  11. Taylormade,
    Go cry a river of tears to Michael Sukkar, Josh Frydenburg, Michael Kroger, Jeff Kennett, Kevin Andrews and the little puppet master still around behind the scenes, Marcus Bastiaan.

    I especially love this one from google:

    What does Michael Kroger do?
    Power broker
    Michael Kroger/Professions

  12. Arrived at East Malvern … opens at 7.00am.

    Queue at least 1.6km in length.

    Sign already stating testing ‘temp suspended’ … not a good sign.

    I would hate to live on the north side of Waverley Road at present…

  13. Zerlo at 0710

    Observing proceedings from Melbourne I would agree 100%.

    Possibly also a sociopath with psychopathic traits.

  14., PCR test results up to 96 hours, push for RAT, gone is if you have symptoms get tested?
    I guess at least at least some masking and density measures are back on.

    I note that even north of the border the [fed, though Wuflu posture has markedly varied between states/ territories] Fibs/ Nats face a -/-0.6% swing on Newspoll quarterlies.

  15. All may not be lost for America in 2022:

    In the 2020 elections, Democrats failed to win control of any new state legislatures and saw their margin in the House of Representatives shrink by more than a dozen seats, an outcome that portended bad things for the party. It seemed to mean that Republicans’ grip on the redistricting process — and their ruthlessness in drawing district lines — would enable them to easily gerrymander their way to a House majority.

    Opinions to start the day, in your inbox. Sign up.
    As one analyst after another noted, Republicans control more state legislatures and more redistricting processes, while in many states controlled by Democrats, redistricting is done by independent commissions. As a result, Republicans might be able to win the House through redistricting alone, even without increasing their vote share in the 2022 midterm elections.

    At least that’s what everyone thought. Until now.

    Just in the past few days, the conventional wisdom on redistricting has undergone a dramatic shift. The most informed redistricting experts now say it appears that this process will look more like a wash, or even that Democrats might gain a few seats.

    How did this happen? Here are the key factors:

    Republicans had already gerrymandered so aggressively in the post-2010 redistricting that they had limited room to add to their advantage.
    In the relatively small number of states where they had the opportunity, Democrats are gerrymandering with equal vigor.
    In some places, Republicans opted to consolidate their current position rather than take a riskier path that might expand their seats.
    Independent redistricting commissions wound up not hurting Democrats in the way some feared they would.

  16. The 53 ALP 47 LNP in NSW portends badly for the Waverley Wally – his own State has him ‘on the nose’, when the hope is to pick up seats in the Premier State..

  17. So how does a national clusterfuck emerge? 2 years into a pandemic, you’d think a First World country like Australia would have the leadership and bureaucracy to sort this out. But no.

    Imagine the pressure placed on QLD, NT, Tasmania, SA and WA to open up to the plague States -the highly populated plague States. All except WA do, on the promise of high vaccination rates and economic loss from missing tourists – and heart wrenching stories of separated families.

    Imagine the non-plague States all saying those entering need PCR proof of being plague-free.

    Imagine the National Cabinet, AHPPC, ATAGI, Minister Hunt, even PM Morrison saying or thinking – “Is this a clusterfuck waiting to happen?” But no.

    Let’s instead let the existing testing facilities, designed for people with symptoms, close contacts and the like to be swamped by thousands of wannabe travellers. Why not let the queues get to be 4+ hour waits? Do you think this might dissuade people with actual symptoms?

    Who could have possibly foreseen such a clusterfuck developing?

  18. Thanks William, terrific blog as always.

    Just wondering if you have a snapshot of Bludgertrack leading up to the 2019 election?

    Thank you!

  19. Mary-Louise McClaws on ABC Breakfast, as always is softly scathing of the “too little, too late” conditions to prevent Covid, and agrees that everyone catching it is now inevitable, given that the holiday break has given it free rein.

  20. Morning all. Thanks BK for the erudite roundup as always. When you consider the probable downturn in testing rates over Christmas, the covid positives in every state except WA are disastrously high. We are losing the fight vs Omicron.

    Half-baked measures to reintroduce restrictions now are too little, too late. Here in SA, after two years of sensible covid management, Marshall has lost the plot. SA health and hospital staff are understandably furious.

    This tweet highlights one of the many reasons why “opening up to Omicron” was Scomo’s worst policy since refusing to investigate rape allegations.

    “Simon Chapman AOSyringex3
    In massive UK medical records study, 1 in 3 with COVID developed neurological or psychiatric problems, 12% of whom have these diagnoses for the first time.”

  21. The pandemic has seemingly validated that view. “Lean and Fragile” is the antithesis of “Robust and Buffered”.
    Interesting BK.

    Faraway factories should, on the face of it, be a way of spreading wealth to the developing countries (I will avoid bringing up Gunder Frank and Wallerstein). Theoretically, the low cost of production there will slowly rise as the country becomes richer and wages there rise.

    But developed countries have economies that abhor inflation above a very small percentage. And…. environmentalist have been saying for yonks that non-essential ‘stuff’ needs to be more expensive to curb the footprint of consumerism, fast fashion and the throw away mentality. We are, as individuals and economically, addicted to buying lots of cheap stuff.

    So, how faraway low cost production, encouraging local production, rectifying the injustices of our international system and caring for our environment and climate all come together in a covid world is fascinating, and complicated and troubling (esp if you add a tendency towards populist RW governments).

  22. “So how does a national clusterfuck emerge? 2 years into a pandemic, you’d think a First World country like Australia would have the leadership and bureaucracy to sort this out. But no.”

    Firstly at every single point of covid Morrison’s stated position has been wrong and often the exact opposite of what was needed. Largely the states ignored him / saved us.

    Not consuming much main stream media, what I have consumed, mostly from the ABC seems so corrupt and biased to the LNP that I turn it off, but not before hearing how wonderful Morrison and Gladys are (were) doing.

    In WA even now more people think McGowan is openning up to early than too late. Even bandwagon riders like the parasites in the AMA and similar are jumping onto the ‘too fast’ side of the public theatre urging more caution.

    Now I’ve lived here so I can understand here, and I’ve spent a lot of time with very LNP types who flirt with the latest news corp ‘open it up and let it rip’ pro-virus, antilife propaganda, but who when pressed invariably do not want to open it up. Even most of the Karen’s (of both genders) fall back into line.

    At a jeweller preChristmas but after the ‘backerpacker brought us disease and pestilence from Qld’ news broke, but with 2 hours before the mask mandate became operative, and about 30% of foot traffic in the cbd was already masked up, the first sales woman asked if I was vaccinated- and I was yes of course eager for a booster. And she was oh, I’ve got the first I can have my second late Jan. To which I responded ‘just in time, so long as you can avoid this backpacker wave’, and the other sales person was ‘I haven’t yet but I’m not a leper’. Even before I could express surprise.

    What I don’t understand is the other states. Is it just Rupert’s malevolent influence? Do you have significantly more Karens whose only commitment it to themselves? Has the lockeddowns (WA has only had one real one at the start and a couple of short play lockdowns) had a big impact?

    I just can’t workout how, wedged between WA and NZ it has been so throughly botched in the plague states.

  23. That John Spooner chappie has really upped the ante in recent times. He seems to be gunning for Johannes Leak’s position. He’s already got the complete absence of humour or wittiness down pat.

  24. “We are losing the fight vs Omicron.”

    Do we know this for sure in the NSW population I thought NSW had declared this to be the case and then stopped checking so they could NOT be disproved?

  25. WeWantPaul at 8:10 am

    I just can’t workout how, wedged between WA and NZ it has been so throughly botched in the plague states.

    A coincidence that in both NZ and WA there is someone missing in the daily paper scene ?

  26. “A coincidence that in both NZ and WA there is someone missing in the daily paper scene ?”

    Yeah that could be the key element here.

  27. Lizzie

    I always value what Mary_Louise McLaws has to say about the pandemic. She has always been the go to for me.

    On the other hand. Catherine Bennett who has been the darling of the media, has been next to useless. A mouth piece for the feds and business. Much like Dr nick Coatsworth.

  28. Soc, I got the lowdown of that f wit who went to the Adelaide night club while knowing he was covid +ve. Sounds like he has been a right knob most of his life and the fine is no skin off him.

    He even took a girl home that night.

    Thankfully his friends weren’t a-holes and reported him in to SAhealth – so the contact tracing started the next day. Then again, they should have called the police on the night.

  29. Best laid plans of mice and men…I set off to go to the Covid testing site and I get 100m up the road and stop to see what the noise is that my car is making?

    Flat tyre. 🙁

    Back home, waiting for the NRMA. 😐

  30. My son, who was on his way to work past the Covid testing site, told me the line was already very, very, very long. I think I might go there tomorrow morning about 6am.

  31. Has Scott Morrison been called back from his holidays (like the media used to do with EVERY Labor PM), to deal with this Covid mess?

  32. How long does it take for a booster to offer protection?

    Asking for a friend who needs to travel to regional areas for work shortly after booster jab.

  33. Okay… East Malvern testing site closed after 45 minutes at 0745.

    Went over to Monash University which opened at 0800. Closed after 5 minutes even though traffic controllers were directing people through and around in the car park rather than going down the line in Wellington and Blackburn Roads and redirecting traffic. Not ideal.

    Given up for the day unless these sites reopen later today. The signs did say ‘Temp Suspended’ so maybe…

    The alternative is to try again tomorrow and get in the queue at least 90 minutes beforehand, eg 0530.

    We are not travelling but are a social contact of a close contact (my daughter) whose cousin tested positive yesterday and is awaiting another confirmation result. So we are testing out of caution and as my daughter hugged my parents (who have several immune issues) on arrival yesterday just before we got the ‘dreaded call’.

    If daughter’s cousin tests negative then we might go down the RAT path but at present she is very unwell so suspecting the worst.

    Regardless we are in iso until we get any further news.

    Decisions. Decisions.

  34. Morrison doesn’t clean up his own messes.

    Premiers are his Covid cleaners. They should be thankful they aren’t his Maccas cleaners.

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