Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll brings its regular Christmas present of quarterly breakdowns, combining results from its polls from October to December, allowing for state and other breakdowns with plausible large samples and tolerable margins of error. It shows Labor with leading substantially in each state with the distinct exception of Queensland: by 53-47 in New South Wales, out from 52-48 in the previous quarter, for a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election; 56-44 in Victoria, in from 58-42 last quarter, for a swing to Labor of about 3%; 55-45 in South Australia, a swing of about 3%; and, most remarkably, by 55-45 in Western Australia, out from 54-46 last quarter for a swing approaching 11%. The Coalition retains a lead of 54-46 in Queensland, in from 55-45 last quarter, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%.
The gender breakdowns are unchanged on last quarter with Labor leading 54-46 among women and 52-48 among men. However, Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 age cohort from 65-35 to 69-31, with the others little changed (54-46 to Labor among 35-to-49, 53-47 and 60-40 to the Coalition among 50-to-64 and 65-plus. Labor appeares to have gained particularly among lower income cohorts over the past year, with current leads of 55-45 among those with less than $50,000 household income and 56-44 among those with between $50,000 and $100,000. These figures compare respectively with 51-49 to Labor and 51-49 to the Coalition in the April-to-June result. Labor’s deficit among those with more than $150,000 is down over this time from 56-44 to 53-47, but its 52-48 lead among those on $100,000 to $150,000 is down from 53-47. The breakdowns combined the results of four polls conducted between September 29 to December 4 from an overall sample of 6102.
The Newspoll release provides new data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which I am pleased to announce now includes its own state breakdowns that you can explored by clicking on the tabs (if it isn’t working for you, hard refreshing and trying again later seems to do the trick). Those of you who saw this before I added the Newspoll numbers will note that they have softened what was previously a double-digit swing in Queensland, which points to a disconnect between Newspoll’s numbers for the state and those of Essential Research, which have generally credited Labor with a two-party lead in the state.
Also yesterday from the Age/Herald was a piece on Resolve Strategic’s policy and political performance data, which I don’t believe adds anything to what was included with the regular monthly result, though it’s served in a form that shows how these often-ignored numbers have tracked over time. Specifically, the Coalition has weakened in its strongest areas, with leads diminishing on economic management, national security and COVID-19, while holding steady on the weaker ground of jobs and wages, health care and environment.
Cat @ 0847
What time does the site open? If say 0700 I’d get there at 0530.
Maralyn Parker
@MaralynParker
Unbelievable
Scott Morrison is stuffing up our #booster shots too – he gave delivery contracts to Linfox and DHL (donors?) instead of using the existing pharmaceutical delivery systems. Deliveries are taking weeks not days.
It’s never about looking after us
#Omicron
SK
Looks like maybe sometime between week 1 and week 2… possibly closer to the end of week 2. But it is not the same for everyone:
https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/how-long-does-it-take-for-the-booster-to-be-effective
C@t
Wish it was raining where I am.
Unless the forecast changes, no rain for the forseeable future here in Melbourne town.
Thanks Grant-
G_EL,
Ditto here. Maybe my flat tyre on the way to the Covid testing site saved me from a fate worse than dying of boredom? 🙂
Victoria @ #52 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 8:55 am
We’re turning into Queensland in summer. 🙁
Cat @ 0854
Sigma Logistics is one of the vaccine logistic companies (at least in Victoria) but they are experiencing some severe financial problems due to a botched IT system deployment and may be facing closure or buy out by Westfarmers. Quite a few staff have left / been retrenched in the last fortnight.
How about Frank McGuire’s whinge?
He was installed by Shorten/AWU and now complains of factionalism after his faction is ousted from power.
Less than a fortnight after that infamous nothingburger of a National Cabinet called by Scotty so that he could prance some announcements on the national stage… and…
NSW, having re-introduced mask mandates is today re-introducing QR mandates and social distancing mandates:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-27/qr-check-ins-density-rule-in-nsw-from-today-stem-covid-19/100726028
Happy Personal Responsibility Everyone!
If Morrison came back from wherever he is, what would he do? Recommend we all act responsibly? Show our famous resilience? Take on another overpaid figurehead to ‘manage’ the situation? Pray for us?
Great Domicrons!!!! Is that an open stable door that needs closing?
Victoria dealt with the second wave last year without a vaccine in sight.
It was hard work but we did it. By extension we managed to keep the rest of Australia covid free.
Despite doing this, Victoria was ridiculed at every opportunity.
This was the worst part of dealing with the lockdown etc.
The first wave and third and subsequent waves always originated from other states.
Main culprit being the gold standard NSW.
We are now being told that omicron is seeding and we need to deal with what’s coming.
Victorians are hardened and experienced. But I gotta say we are tired…..
I should probably get a test before going.
Victoria has almost 2000 cases from 58000 tests.
Q: Here in SA, after two years of sensible covid management, Marshall has lost the plot.
Indeed, and we have the next election in 3 months….must be time for some polling!
Grant_ExLibris @ #56 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 8:58 am
That’s verging on the criminal that Morrison/Dutton haven’t called in the Army to transport the vaccines. I thought we had an Army man as Head of Covid Vaccine logistics?
NSW has almost 6400 from 97000 tests.
Huge jump in hospital admissions.
Monsieur Backpacker would already be on thin ice re public opinion in WA so this will really endear him to locals. He may have a nasty surprise when he hits court. The local beaks have been happy to come down very hard on blatant ‘dickheadery’.*
https://www.watoday.com.au/national/western-australia/french-backpacker-charged-for-alleged-perth-hotel-quarantine-breach-aggressive-behaviour-20211226-p59k82.html
*WA government defends COVID breach punishments after 64 people jailed
https://www.smh.com.au/national/wa-government-defends-covid-breach-punishments-after-64-people-jailed-20210909-p58qdm.html
Scott Ludlam has a point:
Scott Ludlam
@Scottludlam
Question on notice for the “health” minister, what if we don’t all want covid?
poroti @ #67 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 9:05 am
One of WA’s prisons in 43 heat would be just the sort of rude surprise he deserved. 😀
Victoria records 1,999 COVID cases and three deaths
There are 368 patients with active COVID-19 infections in hospital, of whom 80 are in intensive care, with 38 on a ventilator.
The health department said a further 39 people were in ICU, but their infections were no longer considered active.
The state’s seven-day average for COVID-19 hospitalisations has stayed steady over the Christmas period, from 383 on December 20 to 383.4 today.
The new cases were detected from 57,818 test results received yesterday.
There are now 16,467 active cases of the virus in Victoria, and 674 people have died during the current outbreak.
NSW has recorded 6,324 new COVID-19 cases and three deaths. There are 521 people in hospital from the virus
PhoenixRed
An increase of 63 people in hospital from yesterday.
Grant_ExLibris,
My son just informed me that people began lining up at 4.30am for a Covid test in Victoria. I think you might have to get an early start tomorrow! 😯
C@t
I’d rather see the Victorian Jeroen Weimar in charge. None of Morrison’s appointments seem capable of doing their job.
Another figure to consider is that NSW currently has 50,000 active cases of covid.
lizzie @ #75 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 9:09 am
Yes, they’re just empty suits for Morrison to push out in front of him. And to be used as convenient objects of blame if anything goes wrong.
Today and tomorrow are public holidays due to xmas day and boxing day landing on the weekend.
That will have a bearing on the amount of services available.
I wouldn’t be surprised if this guy was David Crowe’s son but he’s also a speechwriter for the Labor Opposition. He makes a good point though:
Shaun Crowe
@shauncrowe
Yet again, Scott Morrison is completely absent from the national discussion around testing times, isolation policies, case numbers, hospitalisation rates, or our broader public health strategy. I don’t think we’ve ever had a Prime Minister go this missing this consistently.
I always look to professor Esterman for his analysis
——
It was a chilly 13 in Adelaide when I took the puppy for his morning walk – but reaching 26. There were 1999 cases for Victoria and 3 deaths. The 7-day moving average is up to 1775, and the Reff up to 1.24. That is a 13 day doubling time. There are 369 cases in hospital, down 5.
Torch, everyone is p1ssed at Marshall. From those who wanted a delay in opening, those wanting stronger measures to slow the spread and those wanting all restrictions, isolations and testing rules be scrapped. Businesses are particularly internally conflicted – often stating they wanted all of the above in the same sentence.
Victoria
Thanks for the heads-up. I’m completely out of touch.
Lizzie
No problemo.
SK
My GP said the booster ‘is effective immediately, as you already have the antibodies in your system..’
Q: Simon Katich
Yes, I am in Adelaide- and have lost my employment in health now for a second time (as all ‘non-urgent cases are cancelled)… I had 12 months without work in 2020-21, and now it is suspended again. Urgh.
sprocket_
Might pay to have a chat to the Dr 🙂
https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsupport/heart-matters-magazine/news/coronavirus-and-your-health/covid-booster-vaccine
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-phase-3-trial-data-showing
Imagine how much effort it will take to replace $400,000 worth of special vans. People with low vision waiting for a guide dog will suffer because of this. Some people are plain evil.
Lizzie @ 0934
I’m not a religious person but there should be a special place in hell reserved for these people … disgraceful.
An eye for an eye perhaps …
Tom Decent
@tomdecent
·
14m
Breaking from England cricket team: “The England team and management are currently at the team hotel awaiting results of RFT COVID tests following a positive test in the team’s family group.” DRAMA
Grant_ExLibris
The concept of Karma – you reap what you sow – has a lot of appeal.
Vic, ‘twas a bitter 6deg and windy up here in the hills when I did some early morning gardening.
The trend for NSW hospitalisation is to double in 7 days (10% increase per day). Total cases have remained steady for 3 days but that might be just be because of lower test numbers over the holidays. Perhaps a big jump on Wednesday?
>blockquote>C@tmomma says:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 8:45 am
Best laid plans of mice and men…I set off to go to the Covid testing site and I get 100m up the road and stop to see what the noise is that my car is making?
Flat tyre.
Back home, waiting for the NRMA.
Hey C@t
Use your new beaut can opener on those pesky wheel nuts. Should be on the road again in no time.
PS. Am hinting broadly to the young folk about your can opener for my next birthday. My arthritic fingers will be pleased.
Queensland’s ALP government has done a fantastic job whilst sharing a heavily populated border with NSW and coming under sustained pressure from the Murdoch press acting as a kind of anti ALP wolfpack. Look at the figures and you’ll see less fatalities than WA from our far higher population. Queensland also has a higher population than Jacindas much lauded NZ with many less deaths. The one thing NZ and WA share is the ability to isolate with Perth miles from anywhere. Good for you !! But Queensland’s ALP government is really the gold standard and has done it all under immense pressure from the the combined conservative forces of Gladys, Sundry Qld conservative boofheads, Murdochcracy and various Federal government W**kers. By any measure Queensland has outperformed WA and NZ.
GG @ 0941
Hmmm… some in the English team might be relieved.
So seriously what are the options here.
Delay for a day or two? Call the match off? Draw?
Simon Katich at 9:44 am
Stop trolling Sandgropers 👿
I guess we’re getting used to this, but how foolish was it for ScoMo to vow “There will be no more lockdowns”, when he had no control over lockdown policy?
The only thing he has done right in all this is to disappear.