Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll brings its regular Christmas present of quarterly breakdowns, combining results from its polls from October to December, allowing for state and other breakdowns with plausible large samples and tolerable margins of error. It shows Labor with leading substantially in each state with the distinct exception of Queensland: by 53-47 in New South Wales, out from 52-48 in the previous quarter, for a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election; 56-44 in Victoria, in from 58-42 last quarter, for a swing to Labor of about 3%; 55-45 in South Australia, a swing of about 3%; and, most remarkably, by 55-45 in Western Australia, out from 54-46 last quarter for a swing approaching 11%. The Coalition retains a lead of 54-46 in Queensland, in from 55-45 last quarter, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%.
The gender breakdowns are unchanged on last quarter with Labor leading 54-46 among women and 52-48 among men. However, Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 age cohort from 65-35 to 69-31, with the others little changed (54-46 to Labor among 35-to-49, 53-47 and 60-40 to the Coalition among 50-to-64 and 65-plus. Labor appeares to have gained particularly among lower income cohorts over the past year, with current leads of 55-45 among those with less than $50,000 household income and 56-44 among those with between $50,000 and $100,000. These figures compare respectively with 51-49 to Labor and 51-49 to the Coalition in the April-to-June result. Labor’s deficit among those with more than $150,000 is down over this time from 56-44 to 53-47, but its 52-48 lead among those on $100,000 to $150,000 is down from 53-47. The breakdowns combined the results of four polls conducted between September 29 to December 4 from an overall sample of 6102.
The Newspoll release provides new data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which I am pleased to announce now includes its own state breakdowns that you can explored by clicking on the tabs (if it isn’t working for you, hard refreshing and trying again later seems to do the trick). Those of you who saw this before I added the Newspoll numbers will note that they have softened what was previously a double-digit swing in Queensland, which points to a disconnect between Newspoll’s numbers for the state and those of Essential Research, which have generally credited Labor with a two-party lead in the state.
Also yesterday from the Age/Herald was a piece on Resolve Strategic’s policy and political performance data, which I don’t believe adds anything to what was included with the regular monthly result, though it’s served in a form that shows how these often-ignored numbers have tracked over time. Specifically, the Coalition has weakened in its strongest areas, with leads diminishing on economic management, national security and COVID-19, while holding steady on the weaker ground of jobs and wages, health care and environment.
Paul Austin
@PaulNAustin
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8m
10 days ago, NSW had 215 COVID patients in hospital and 24 in ICU.
Today NSW has 521 in hospital and 55 in ICU.
Where should we look now, Janet?
#auspol #covidnsw #media
Quote Tweet
janet albrechtsen
@jkalbrechtsen
· Dec 17
Sad to see that the media keep reporting case numbers in their headlines. Responsible reporting means highlighting hospitalisations and ICU, not case numbers. Give it a try.
Morrison is very busy not holding a testing swab.
Cos right now that is Joyce’s job.
Leroy @ #2419 Sunday, December 26th, 2021 – 11:22 pm
Newspoll quarterly breakdown of aggregate national polling data 29 Sep – 4 Dec 2021 (not a new poll).
Newspoll shows support for minor parties back to pre-pandemic levels
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Minor parties got 23% of the PV in 2016, 25% in 2019 and this quarterly summary shows no sign of them going away any time soon, especially in QLD, WA and Tasmania.
The Pollsters still seem to be showing no indication of learning from the pre 2019 election when they appeared to have been under sampling lower educated voters and/or provincial seat voters.
These things contributed to the 3.0 % “error” in their predictions and a grand total of 9 seats changing hands in 2019.
Three seats went to Labor (two of them notionally Labor anyway on pre-election redistributions), five seats went to the Coalition and one to an Independent.
It was the election you have when you are not having an election after the pollsters had Labor winning a majority and the biggest question was by how much ?
Some of the things post election analysts noted were things like –
(1) The popular obsession with the pre election 2PP poll numbers,;
(2) Headline assumptions of a uniform 2PP swing which never happens;
(3) Claims that Labor could not win an election unless the PV got back to levels enjoyed before the non green “other” voters started to take a bite out of the two major parties PV;
(4) Media outlets claiming 2019 was to be a Climate Change election based on the bleating’s of voters in inner city Seats (which should favour Labor) but in reality it turned out to be an election on leadership trust or distrust in Shorten’s case and economic stability for lower educated voters in outer suburban and provincial seats;
(5) Labor’s campaign in 2019 failed to hurt where it counts, in outer suburban and provincial seats..and
(6) Their policy approach scared the beejesus out of retirement age voters, blue collar workers in provincial and urban fringe seats and anyone who swallowed the “death tax” lie that saturated and dominated the internet in the critical weeks before the election.
Given these rear vision mirror observations, it is surprising that Labor got away with a Claytons election in 2019 (gaining three seats, losing five).
If Labor make the same mistake of sandbagging seats they don’t need to and not focussing on getting their PV within 5-6% of the Coalition PV in outer suburban and provincial seats and leaving the 2PP headlines to the commentariat to fight over, they will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, albeit with a minority government the most likely result they can hope for.
‘Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 9:41 am
Tom Decent
@tomdecent
·
14m
Breaking from England cricket team: “The England team and management are currently at the team hotel awaiting results of RFT COVID tests following a positive test in the team’s family group.” DRAMA’
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They probably scoured the country looking for some Covid positives to put them out of their misery.
6.5% positivity rate for NSW tests…
Torchbearer,
What are the rules for nonurgent procedures? Is that Elective surgery as well?
Australia cricket team is also had covid tests
Are hair transplant procedures still available in Australia during covid? Or do you need to go overseas (to a Pacific island for eg) for that?
Bushfire Bill at 9:50 am
It’s actually a ‘clever’ move by Bullshitman. Scotty is seen promising us all FREEDOM, what a guy . The ‘villains’ will be all those State Grinchs taking Santa Scotty’s gift from us .
So we have another Quarantine Hotel now in Melbourne…
poroti says:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 10:01 am
It’s actually a ‘clever’ move by Bullshitman. Scotty is seen promising us all FREEDOM, what a guy . The ‘villains’ will be all those State Grinchs taking Santa Scotty’s gift from us.
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The mistake Morrison made was saying federal and state lib/nats governments wouldn’t be telling people what to do , and the lib/nats state government have been telling people what to do
Yet the Victorian Labor government is acting in sync with the NSW Liberal Government. Has anybody told Dan he’s making a terrible mistake?
kezza2 @ #94 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 9:47 am
I never thought of that, k2! 😀
I must carry it with me wherever I go. 😉
Now, when you get your young ‘uns to buy yours, go to the site I linked. They can be up to $100 more to buy them elsewhere! 😯
Best present ever!
So Barnaby Joyce has to be back in the country and Acting PM? Although I note he’s not on the job either. 😐
Simon Katich @ #108 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 10:01 am
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LMAO
What ab0ut homosexual correction “therapy”
That is why Morrison has fled into hiding
Last week he said there would be no mandatory mask nationwide – Day after NSW liberal/national party state government join in with a mask being mandatory nationwide
Last Week Morrison said Federal and state liberal /National party government would not tell people what to do or force restrictions on them – Day after state liberal/ National party governments told people what to do and force restrictions onto them
Oh deer! Australia’s contribution to the Anthropocene Extinction Event is world-class:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-27/sambar-deer-damage-rainforests-in-fire-ravaged-areas/100660722
Q: SA… What are the rules for nonurgent procedures? Is that Elective surgery as well?
I am not sure exactly, I think it is complicated as everything went to hell at the time of the normal Xmas break, when most clinics shut down for a few weeks. Things will be clearer in mid- January when normal service resumes.
I am part of a research project, where the patients come in every 1-2 years, so it is REALLY non-urgent stuff. But not unimportant for our patients.
The quiet part Health Hazzard never said out loud:
Simon Rosenberg
@simon_rosenberg
The ‘everyone will get Covid’ brigade never mention:
– the frail aged
– the chronically sick
– the immuno-compromised
– those in remote areas with poor access to health services
– anyone else vulnerable to severe illness or death,
and those caring for them. #covidnsw #auspol
Scott, you may have heard? There was thing called the Doherty Institute modelling where the Feds, States and Territories agreed to open up at 80% fully vaccinated and end lockdowns as a covid management tool.
Scott @ #116 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 10:13 am
Thats what Scotty does when things are going badly dating back to the bushfire crisis- he disappears. Labor volunteers should wear Hawiian shirts and “this is not a race” T shirts at the election booths
Lars,
Have you been able to find that Bonham piece you paraphrased from yesterday?
EB says:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 10:21 am
Scott @ #116 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 10:13 am
That is why Morrison has fled into hiding
Thats what Scotty does when things are going badly dating back to the bushfire crisis- he disappears. Labor volunteers should wear Hawiian shirts and “this is not a race” T shirts at the election booths
________________________________
How juvenile! What about trying for a policy or two?
@PrincePlanet
I could not agree more re QLD Labor and Annastacia. QLD Labor IMO has been the gold-standard throughout the whole pandemic.
This pandemic has shown how blind ideology fails society. Simplified ideas of ‘economy first’ or ‘freedom’ and ‘personal responsibility’ are found to be hollow at best and downright deliberately divisive and dangerous at worst.
A senator for South Carolina showed surprising wisdom in 2020 when he urged politicians to avoid political punditry and instead listen to people like Fauci, then said (wtte) you don’t have an economy when hospitals overflow and people are left to die in corridors and car parks.
The problem we ended up with was politicians mistakenly (or willingly) believing health experts were focussing purely on health outcomes; believing they, as politicians, needed to weigh that up with the concerns of economy. Yet the health advice had that factor already baked in – information easily ignored by politicians who are practiced at listening to loud and persistent advice from their regular lobbyists donors over and above the broad societal interests.
Lars Von Trier @ #124 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 10:22 am
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Do shut up Lars. Nobody is listening anymore.
Is Morrison on leave?
Is Joyce Acting Prime Minister?
Why is the gang of thieves doing omerta?
Lars,
What’s your policy on Hawaiian shirts?
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 10:18 am
Scott, you may have heard? There was thing called the Doherty Institute modelling where the Feds, States and Territories agreed to open up at 80% fully vaccinated and end lockdowns as a covid management tool.
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Why are the state Lib/nats government telling people what to do and putting restrictions in , when Morrison told people they would not do it any more
LVT – Dan kept (and strengthened) masks and QR code check-ins.
Those measures have maybe bought him an extra week or 2 in which to be able to act at the same time or after NSW.
Victoria had a positivity rate of 3.4% – highest level ever today.
I reckon density limits in shops might come in at some point soon (anything like that to limit spread and keeping things open).
Lars Von Trier @ Monday, December 27, 2021 at 10:18 am
That was pre-omicron. Have you heard the latest from the Doherty Institute?
You are a variant late (and a dollar short). Your report card would read “please try harder” 🙂
SK
Hang on, hang on.
Does not an increase in hospital activity result in an increase in the GDP?
UK Cartoons:
David Crowe opines that peak Lars hatred may have passed.
It’s obvious to me that there is a massive cover-up of Covid mismanagement going on.
The NSW government, in combination with the feds, has been taunting other states into opening up, not far short of calling them wusses for trying to protect their populations.
● Hazzard says “Let’s face facts: we’re all going to get it”… as part of the softening up process.
● Tame media plays up airport emotions every single day for a month, finding ever-new angles nightly on the “Teary relatives hugging each other” theme.
● Non-plague states are blamed for setting the testing bar too high, thus ruining it for NSW.
● Dominic Perrotet – a Premier with absolutely no mandate to be Premier by way of an electoral process (and thus no street credibility) – tries and fails to energize the public with pathetic exhortations for Sydneysiders to do their economic duty by travelling to the regions and infecting them too.
The clear aim has been based on “the fog of war”, to spread the plague, to generate a sense of inevitability of infection, and to use taunting and shaming as a tactic to get the entire nation infected. Thus (they hope) the heat is taken off Perrotet (and Berejiklian before him), plus Morrison and his criminal gang for cocking things up so badly.
Releasing genomic data appears to have been suspended too. While we hear reports (again, in the compliant media) that Omicron has taken over the State, there is little data released to back this up. It could just as well be our old friend Delta that has caused the damage, seeing as there was little Omicron about – but plenty of Delta – on “Freedom Day”, December 15th, when numbers started to really escalate.
What better way for a Premier or Prime Minister to absolve themselves of responsibility than to blame it all on a new variant that just happened to turn up around the time that they were planning to abandon pandemic management anyway?
What better strategy would there be to set up a self-fulfilling prophecy by seeing to it that as many other states as possible experienced outbreaks so that the load of blame could be shared, diluted and eventually dismissed as just “Nature taking its inevitable course”?
Where does Berejiklian’s declaration – made on July 23rd – that a mere 136 new cases was a “National Emergency” sit with today’s figure of 6,234: over forty times larger? If 136 cases was a “National Emergency” what are we in the middle of now? She was either lying then, or Perrotet is lying now… or both.
Nope, I’m not swallowing any of their excuses just yet.
GG – I am loathe to respond to your post re Bonham , only because your smelly shadow inevitably turns up, but the Labor Primary Vote average using Williams summary of monthly polls :
In September 37.64%
In October 36.33%
In November 36.5%
clearly we hit Peak Albo when lockdown ended in NSW + Vic.
Bushfire Bill says:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 10:33 am
It’s obvious to me that there is a massive cover-up of Covid mismanagement going on.
__________
How droll! Conspiracy theory – I remember when the consensus on here was the Federal Health vaccination figures were falsified!
Is Morrison, that Yellow Pimpernel, pretending to be the prime minister or is he on leave? It can’t be both.
“Do shut up Lars. Nobody is listening anymore.”
Nobody ever did.
EB @ #128 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 10:25 am
Hey L’arse, We are all awake to your concocted pustular discharges, and your unctuous simulated rapport, your smarmy fake sincerity, your studied spurious concern, your odious false empathy, your dissembled trumped-up compassion, your nauseating sham bonhomie.
And, of course, your plain, delusional lack of analytical ability, and compulsive lying.
You are a standing, pitiful joke. Please stop inflicting pain on yourself, and us who witness it.
Where is my response Lars? Or is leaving the field a tacit acknowledgement that the Doherty Institute modelling that the National Plan is based on has been called out of date by the lead author herself due to the emergence of omicron? 😉
Lars,
I have a suspicion that you may have invented the Bonham comment. Say, it’s not so as it would completely destroy your hard earned authority as a poll whisperer.
Next, you’ll be pontificating that changes within MOE actually mean something.
Oh, I see. You already have!
Sad.
Richard Hinds@rdhinds · 42m
More shocking news for England. They’ve been cleared to play.
Actually I am glad that Lars raised the issue.
Where is the updated Plan for omicron?
Another failure of leadership on display.
Greensborough Growler says:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 10:42 am
Lars,
I have a suspicion that you may have invented the Bonham comment. Say, it’s not so as it would completely destroy your hard earned authority as a poll whisperer.
Next, you’ll be pontificating that changes within MOE actually mean something.
Oh, I see. You already have!
Sad.
_______________
My bad – I responded and your bigoted shadow turned up. You live and learn i guess.
sprocket_ @ #86 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 9:17 am
In that case “immediately” probably means the ~ 2-7 days (skewed towards the early end) for most immunised (and, theoretically, previously infected) people in our population to produce any protective anamnestic B & T cell response. This is “immediate” compared to the ~5-14 days that most responses would take in an naive/unimmunised host. Your GP has to interpret the mostly unknown biology – which ignores spin.
Warning – obsessive TL/DR details follow:
Primed memory B cells undergo clonal expansion to produce specific antibodies (Ab) within a few hours of encountering SARS-CoV-2 in airway lining cells. This triggers a series of cascading responses (mainly in local lymph nodes) in antigen presenting cells (APCs – mainly monocytes & macrophages) and B & T lymphocytes, with the production of cell signaling molecules (cytokines, interleukins, growth factors etc.), rapid clonal expansion of Ab-producing cells (B cells) and subsequent Ab-dependent, cytotoxic & natural killer (NK) T cell responses. These processes start within hours, but usually take 42-72 hrs to reach peak response – provided they are all triggered and there are no “gaps” in the overlapping components (as often occur in age, pregnancy, immunodeficiency, coexisting disease etc.).
Adverse effects (AE) to reimmunisation follow the same initial time course, but if any of the components encounter virus to which they are programmed to react further amplification occurs – usually resulting in both eliminating the reproduction of the virus and prevention of further virus-mediated damage, probably peaking at ~3-10 days and persisting for at least 3-6 months.
This is all predicated on the primed (ie previously exposed) B cells recognising the specific antigens of the virus in each patient. The data we have is for Alpha & Delta, not (yet) Omicron – which is probably not equivalent due to the Omicron-specific changes in spike & RBD proteins altering both immune escape and virulence.
On a personal note, all the HCWs I know (which are legion) are terminally pissed at the massive incompetence of the Fucking Spiv Party hacks who “rule” us. We want both Scummo and Perrottet’s heads on pikes – but will settle for immediate resignations. I suspect we are not alone.
Griff says:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 10:44 am
Actually I am glad that Lars raised the issue.
Where is the updated Plan for omicron?
Another failure of leadership on display.
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This boils down to the why wasn’t everybody given a booster last Tuesday argument.
In case you haven’t heard the consensus re Omicron seems to be more infectious less virulent.