Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll brings its regular Christmas present of quarterly breakdowns, combining results from its polls from October to December, allowing for state and other breakdowns with plausible large samples and tolerable margins of error. It shows Labor with leading substantially in each state with the distinct exception of Queensland: by 53-47 in New South Wales, out from 52-48 in the previous quarter, for a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election; 56-44 in Victoria, in from 58-42 last quarter, for a swing to Labor of about 3%; 55-45 in South Australia, a swing of about 3%; and, most remarkably, by 55-45 in Western Australia, out from 54-46 last quarter for a swing approaching 11%. The Coalition retains a lead of 54-46 in Queensland, in from 55-45 last quarter, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%.
The gender breakdowns are unchanged on last quarter with Labor leading 54-46 among women and 52-48 among men. However, Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 age cohort from 65-35 to 69-31, with the others little changed (54-46 to Labor among 35-to-49, 53-47 and 60-40 to the Coalition among 50-to-64 and 65-plus. Labor appeares to have gained particularly among lower income cohorts over the past year, with current leads of 55-45 among those with less than $50,000 household income and 56-44 among those with between $50,000 and $100,000. These figures compare respectively with 51-49 to Labor and 51-49 to the Coalition in the April-to-June result. Labor’s deficit among those with more than $150,000 is down over this time from 56-44 to 53-47, but its 52-48 lead among those on $100,000 to $150,000 is down from 53-47. The breakdowns combined the results of four polls conducted between September 29 to December 4 from an overall sample of 6102.
The Newspoll release provides new data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which I am pleased to announce now includes its own state breakdowns that you can explored by clicking on the tabs (if it isn’t working for you, hard refreshing and trying again later seems to do the trick). Those of you who saw this before I added the Newspoll numbers will note that they have softened what was previously a double-digit swing in Queensland, which points to a disconnect between Newspoll’s numbers for the state and those of Essential Research, which have generally credited Labor with a two-party lead in the state.
Also yesterday from the Age/Herald was a piece on Resolve Strategic’s policy and political performance data, which I don’t believe adds anything to what was included with the regular monthly result, though it’s served in a form that shows how these often-ignored numbers have tracked over time. Specifically, the Coalition has weakened in its strongest areas, with leads diminishing on economic management, national security and COVID-19, while holding steady on the weaker ground of jobs and wages, health care and environment.
Lars Von Trier @ #137 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 10:33 am
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Selective reading again Lars. The numbers you quote are not from Bonham and Bonham argues the PV numbers the ALP are getting overall does not matter as much as what the ALP are getting compared to the Coalition.
Labor accordingly needs to be within “5-6%” of the Coalition PV in specific seats to have a shot of winning the seat on preference allocations. 23% of voters went non LABOR/COALITION in 2016 and 25% in 2019. Certainly Labor’s PV needs to improve but only in specific seats that decide the election. ie outer metro and provincial seats and specifically in relation to the Coalition PV.
So I have been alerted twice in the last 24 hours that I checked in and 2 places that a Covid-19 person was present at the same time.
No need to self isolate according to NSW Health, just monitor for symptoms, get a test if you have any symptoms etc.
So, wishing to do the right thing I head to my nearest testing place (the other nearer testing place naturally closed recently). There is a queue of over 1.5ks, they are advising no more cars will be allowed to enter queue.
So I go home.
What a shambles.
Lars Von Trier at 10:35 am
Of course there is no cover up, no need to ‘these days’. Your team’s corruption of good governance is such they feel able to brazenly advertise and even boast of their acts of incompetence and mismanagement , it’s all out in the open.
It’s a very lazy way of attempting to rebut an argument by dismissing anything you disagree with as a “conspiracy theory”, L’Arse.
If you can explain why 136 cases is a “National Emergency” but 6,324 cases – over 40 times more – only leads to exhortations to further infect the regions are not contradictory, then please do so.
Lars Von Trier @ Monday, December 27, 2021 at 10:47 am
No it doesn’t “boil down” to such an argument.
Where is the updated plan Lars? Or are you trying to say that omicron doesn’t need to have the plan updated? Have you read the statistics lately? The current plan for delta isn’t working. The current plan requires aggressive test, trace, isolation and quarantine processes.
This is a serious question. Where is the updated plan for omicron? Thank you for raising the issue.
SK
Hang on, hang on.
Does not an increase in hospital activity result in an increase in the GDP?
——————————
Hospitalisation from Mandevilles bee stings.
LVT, I have given my opinion on you and your type on this site previously
If you had an ability to listen you would have heard the Victorian Premier promoting the National Road Map and ALL that entails
Victoria is adhering to that National Road Map, signed off by the 9 (Nine) leaders who form the National Cabinet
As the Victorian Premier has reiterated time in memorial
The National Road Map embraces vaccination levels, case numbers being stable, mask wearing, physical distancing, personal hygiene and testing, tracing and isolating
I repeat my description of you and your type
YOU are a clear and present danger to all Australians
We live in a World of a Pandemic – confirmed by the news from the MCG today and the cancellations of soccer matches across the UK including the Premier League
”
nathsays:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 8:59 am
How about Frank McGuire’s whinge?
He was installed by Shorten/AWU and now complains of factionalism after his faction is ousted from power.
”
Ironic?
Looks like the cricket is on. Talk back radio saying it has been delayed for just half an hour, the playing squads remain unchanged and 4 support staff English team people have the virus.
I’m not sure that enough genomic tracing is now being done to prove the dominant strain, especially in Victoria, where apparently Delta still rules.
72 hours and counting. Luckily I’m not travelling interstate or anywhere for that matter.
I am due back at work on Wednesday.
Not sure what I’m supposed to do if I haven’t heard by then. I am feeling better.
Here’s some light relief for the serious folk of PB:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/meet-barnaby-joyce-actor-amber-heard-adds-to-her-canine-family-20211227-p59ka4.html
Lars,
That’s why the Government gets the big bucks.
Predicting surges and ensuring the resources are available to deal with the consequences.
Since the opening up workers don’t want to work in open slather environments and people don’t want to go out in case it stuffs up their Christmas. The vaccine and test venues are under siege and workers in our hospitals are exhausted and under resourced. Predictions are that these are the good old days as the number of hospitalisations and those needing ventilation steadily increases.
The Governments advocate the bringing forward of third jab vaccinations. But, supplies seem not to be available in the quantities required to do the job.
Rumours abound that Morrison is isolated to a dark room in the foetal position, thumb in his mouth begging for his mummy.
Lars,
I shall go further. As you have said “In case you haven’t heard the consensus re Omicron seems to be more infectious less virulent.”
I agree with this as well. How do we perform aggressive Test, trace, isolate and quarantine processes with a variant that is so much more infectious? Just read the personal stories posted. The pathology system is oversaturated. TTIQ cannot be performed according to the plan. We need an updated plan. Where is it?
It is a failure of leadership.
Lars von Tryhard Liberal throws chum in the water. Fish bite. 😐
Lars Von Trier @ #149 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 10:44 am
In September 37.64%
In October 36.33%
In November 36.5%
All well within MOE. NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE at all. The variation is utterly meaningless. Even GG can recognise this.
You are obviously incapable of learning, and you can’t help but display your ridiculously biased propensity to reflexively lie at every ‘opportunity’ that presents itself to your feeble mind.
Give up. It’s seriously embarrassing to endure.
lizzie @ Monday, December 27, 2021 at 10:57 am
You are very likely correct that delta is currently predominant in Victoria. Omicron will supplant delta in a matter of weeks, as it is that much more infectious. We really should be performing genomic testing as more data is helpful for surveillance, but it won’t significant change management.
“This boils down to the why wasn’t everybody given a booster last Tuesday argument.”
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccine-booster-doses-per-capita?country=BRA~CHL~ISR~RUS~USA~URY~OWID_WRL~GBR~FRA~AUS~NLD
“In case you haven’t heard the consensus re Omicron seems to be more infectious less virulent.”
How much less virulent and how much more infectious matters. Would have been nice to know in SA before all the restrictions changed rather than crossing your fingers then praying your spin gets you out of accountability.
C@tmomma @ Monday, December 27, 2021 at 11:00 am
Lars did a good thing just now but calling attention to the National Plan. It has been effectively ignored by the media recently. It hasn’t been updated for omicron and that is a failure of leadership. Now I am not sure that Lars intended to call attention to this failure, but they did so, nonetheless.
Perrotet has doubled down by calling on Sydney New Year’s Eve revellers to come out in force to party.
… as long as social distancing is observed at all times…
I’m not joking.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/nye-revellers-urged-to-come-out-to-party-in-sydney-cbd-20211225-p59k5a.html
The man’s a psychopath.
Griff
I fear that nothing can change the management now. The horse has bolted with the bit between its teeth. Even outside NSW.
nathsays:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 8:59 am
How about Frank McGuire’s whinge?
He was installed by Shorten/AWU and now complains of factionalism after his faction is ousted from power.
_____________________
Slightly different as there was a vacancy with Brumby retiring whilst Frank as the sitting member was keen to continue on.
BB
Unbelievably stupid.
Bugger. Link didn’t work in last post
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-vaccine-booster-doses-per-capita?country=BRA~CHL~ISR~RUS~USA~URY~OWID_WRL~GBR~FRA~AUS~NLD
Vale Desmond Tutu.
A great humanitarian and environmentalist.
I just tried to get a booking for a booster. Nothing available on the Central Coast for at least 2 weeks. Some chemists booked out until March! Even the Central Coast respiratory Clinic is
Griff @ #169 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 11:06 am
I get that. Though, as you say, not for the purpose intended. 😀
rhwombat @ Monday, December 27, 2021 at 10:46 am
Thank you for the summary. While I know the mechanics, they say timing is everything 🙂
What do we see happening with the COVID situation in say 3 months time?
a) Lockdowns
b) Living with COVID / things back to normal
c) Living with COVID / widespread death and hospitalisations
d) Other
I’m going to say a combination of A and C :-/
LVT
How much less , any exact numbers yet ? I ask because it shows the utter disregard , or is it total incompetency ? , your heroes displayed when Omicron came on to the scene. Before anything was known about it they blithely took actions that ensured Omicron would rip through. Nice of them to play Russian roulette with everyone’s lives eh ?
Labor PV 37.1% on PB voting intentions, biggest single party vote.
Leadership satisfaction, SM a nose in front, and PPM AA competitive.
Now that the vast majority are finally vaccinated all we can do is grind on with everyday life.
If extra capacity is required by state health systems then Govt should provide for it.
Of course, the timely supply of enough vaccine is the main problem which this utterly inept and useless federal Govt just can’t get right.
Perrotett becoming very Jim Jones with his messianic rhetoric
Sydneysiders might become alarmed if free Koolaid is going to be distributed at the New Year festivities.
Mr Mysterious says:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 11:14 am
b)
c)
I don’t have any confidence is Fed & Lib States to return no matter cost of life.
Just look @ UK & USA.
BB and GG
Sadly…
The only way that Perrotett (and a lesser extent Morrison) will change their minds re COVID is if a member of their immediate family contracts COVID, ends up in ICU … and dies.
lizzie says:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 10:50 am
JohnQuiggin
@JohnQuiggin
·
19h
By mid-Jan, NSW hospitalizations likely to approach 5000 on current policy settings*. That’s 25% of all beds in the system. Add a 25 per cent cut due to staff isolating, and half the beds normally available will be gone. Talk of “living with Covid” is fatuous nonsense.
_________________________________
So an Economist pontificating on health outcomes?
Don’t know if any medicos can answer this.
I am currently scheduled for an op at Katoomba hospital on 20/1.
I booked a booster for 10/1. Barely an hour later I received a message stating no supplies, book again on 17/1.
Does it matter if I have the Booster that close to the operation?
I barely even noticed the second jab.
GG @ 1116
I wonder if the crowds will be significantly down at the NYE fireworks …
lizzie @ Monday, December 27, 2021 at 11:08 am
I am more hopeful. Let us be fatalistic and consider the scenario that everyone will get omicron. It then becomes not a matter of if, but when. So, the following options present themselves:
1. we let it rip and we have a very short doubling rate and the whole population gets omicron in short order and overwhelms the health system
2. we have sufficient restrictions in place that delays the transmission of omicron through the population that allows for the health system to maintain adequate operation
3. we have sufficient restrictions in place that delays the transmission of omicron through the population that allows for the health system to maintain adequate operation and for all the population to be boosted
4. we have sufficient restrictions in place that delays the transmission of omicron through the population that allows for the population to be vaccinated with a tailored vaccine or even a pan-COVID vaccine.
The last is very unlikely indeed. Three will be tough and the horse is likely bolted. Two is still possible if there is the will. We need a new plan.
Mr Mysterious says:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 11:14 am
Oh you beat me to the punch. Curse my longwinded posts and slow typing 🙂
Rex Douglas @ Monday, December 27, 2021 at 11:16 am
Sadly no. Two doses of AZ or Pfizer or Moderna are helpful, but shall be likely insufficient to prevent the health system from being overwhelmed. We need a third dose (at least) for omicron.
Griff @ #189 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 11:23 am
The last stats I heard for Victoria were that 91% of hospitalisations were unvaxxed. I’m not sure when the peak will be but I’m sure that state authorities ahve done their sums and are prepared.
For those with a brain, I’m sure they’re settling in to the mindset of getting used to wearing a mask and having sanitised hands on an indefinite basis.
Aqualung @ #187 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 11:21 am
What the op is and what type of anaesthesia would be relevant imo. Major/ minor? General/local? The booster will give your defence mechanisms something to think about, and not challenging them with another invasion – surgery and anaesthesia – is on first principles worth thinking about.
Absent that info, I’d try and book a booster a week ahead. Try that chemist I told you about. He’s out of stock now, but make contact, explain the problem, and I’d be surprised if he couldn’t find a spot for you.
Me, myself, and I would prefer to have had three shots before going into a hospital. Can surgery be rescheduled. And …mmm… Katoomba?
Rumours abound that Morrison is isolated to a dark room in the foetal position, thumb in his mouth begging for his mummy.
_____
GG
Or Brian Houston.
Griff @ #191 Monday, December 27th, 2021 – 11:27 am
Apparently there’s new medication in pill form from Pfizer that has been approved which may prevent hospitalisations.
Here’s a chat about the future under Covid …
(15 minutes)
https://youtu.be/TZhr8Hz03jY
I think thats right Rex. The plan was always get everybody vaccinated and the unvaxxed could take their chances (and have had plenty of time to get vaccinated). That seems to be a consensus (but unspoken pov) amongst all governments.
‘Rex Douglas says:
Monday, December 27, 2021 at 11:11 am
Vale Desmond Tutu.
A great humanitarian and environmentalist.’
—————————–
He would have probably inserted ‘christian’ into your list and put it first. Apart from that, what did he achieve for the environment, exactly?
The greatest disruption from growing Omicron cases will of course be the workforce who can’t work from home.