Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll brings its regular Christmas present of quarterly breakdowns, combining results from its polls from October to December, allowing for state and other breakdowns with plausible large samples and tolerable margins of error. It shows Labor with leading substantially in each state with the distinct exception of Queensland: by 53-47 in New South Wales, out from 52-48 in the previous quarter, for a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election; 56-44 in Victoria, in from 58-42 last quarter, for a swing to Labor of about 3%; 55-45 in South Australia, a swing of about 3%; and, most remarkably, by 55-45 in Western Australia, out from 54-46 last quarter for a swing approaching 11%. The Coalition retains a lead of 54-46 in Queensland, in from 55-45 last quarter, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%.
The gender breakdowns are unchanged on last quarter with Labor leading 54-46 among women and 52-48 among men. However, Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 age cohort from 65-35 to 69-31, with the others little changed (54-46 to Labor among 35-to-49, 53-47 and 60-40 to the Coalition among 50-to-64 and 65-plus. Labor appeares to have gained particularly among lower income cohorts over the past year, with current leads of 55-45 among those with less than $50,000 household income and 56-44 among those with between $50,000 and $100,000. These figures compare respectively with 51-49 to Labor and 51-49 to the Coalition in the April-to-June result. Labor’s deficit among those with more than $150,000 is down over this time from 56-44 to 53-47, but its 52-48 lead among those on $100,000 to $150,000 is down from 53-47. The breakdowns combined the results of four polls conducted between September 29 to December 4 from an overall sample of 6102.
The Newspoll release provides new data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which I am pleased to announce now includes its own state breakdowns that you can explored by clicking on the tabs (if it isn’t working for you, hard refreshing and trying again later seems to do the trick). Those of you who saw this before I added the Newspoll numbers will note that they have softened what was previously a double-digit swing in Queensland, which points to a disconnect between Newspoll’s numbers for the state and those of Essential Research, which have generally credited Labor with a two-party lead in the state.
Also yesterday from the Age/Herald was a piece on Resolve Strategic’s policy and political performance data, which I don’t believe adds anything to what was included with the regular monthly result, though it’s served in a form that shows how these often-ignored numbers have tracked over time. Specifically, the Coalition has weakened in its strongest areas, with leads diminishing on economic management, national security and COVID-19, while holding steady on the weaker ground of jobs and wages, health care and environment.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/30/rapid-antigen-tests-double-in-price-in-australia-amid-concerns-of-price-gouging
“Some consumers claimed one retailer appeared to be selling the same five-test kit online for $90 on Wednesday, up from about $45 last week.”
Thank you corrupt government, for not giving out free RAT tests!
One question that needs an answer is: were ASIO monitoring the activities of the anti-vaxxers in the days leading up to the Old PH fire?
Kakuru @ #2088 Thursday, December 30th, 2021 – 8:12 pm
Yep. There’s no way that a policeman would be legally allowed to spray Capsaicin (pepper spray) which had a hydrocarbon accelerant such as kerosene or butane as the suspension agent.
In fact, it doesn’t:
The active ingredient in pepper spray is capsaicin, which is derived from the fruit of plants in the genus Capsicum, including chilis. Extraction of oleoresin capsicum (OC) from peppers requires capsicum to be finely ground, from which capsaicin is then extracted using an organic solvent such as ethanol. The solvent is then evaporated, and the remaining waxlike resin is the oleoresin capsaicin.
An emulsifier such as propylene glycol is used to suspend OC in water, and the suspension is then pressurized to make an aerosol pepper spray.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pepper_spray#Components
So, anyone seeking to blame the AFP, who may or may not have sprayed pepper spray in the vicinity of the fire at Old Parliament House, is just yanking your chain.
Has Scott Morrison come out to say anything yet? You know, something erudite like, in other countries the protesters who set the fire would have been shot by now? 😐
This pepper spray causing the fire somewhat confounded by the photographic evidence – this dude may be indigenous, or he may not be,,,
By his tats shall ye know him ….
Prof Kerryn Phelps AM
@drkerrynphelps
The medical profession and other health care workers deserve to see the scientific evidence and public health advice relied upon by National Cabinet today in redefining “close contact” #COVID19
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 8:46 pm
[‘This pepper spray causing the fire somewhat confounded by the photographic evidence – this dude may be indigenous, or he may not be,,,’]
I don’t know what three comas mean but I do know what over-egging is. Settle yourself, dear
I guess the question is, having had 50 odd years to burn the place down why today?
Is that how the fire was “accidentally” started?
Under Morrison’s new Covid regime, GP clinics and hospital A&Es are likely to be filled with a lot more people worried they have the virus.
Rex Douglas @ #2057 Thursday, December 30th, 2021 – 4:42 pm
No Rex, Thorpe is divisive and presents a minority view within the indigenous community as the Greens’ policy platform.
Pretty much.
Luke Henriques-Gomes
@lukehgomes
Quite interesting on rapid tests: the PM says “private industry” had expressed concern the government would “come in and tests will be handed out to anyone who wants one”. “It was agreed today that will not be the policy in Australia.”
@lalulizzi
Translation: some of my mates are going to make some mega bucks out of this!!! Bad luck if you have to spend your rent on RATs I don’t care!
This bloke seems to be ‘stoking the fire’ on Twitter. Anyone know anything about him?
https://twitter.com/iliasofjohn/status/1476467353860771842?s=20
Rex Douglas,
Lidia Thorpe doesn’t ‘cut deeply’. Lidia Thorpe DOES shoot her mouth off before engaging her brain. Hence why she is a dangerous idiot.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 9:06 pm
Rex Douglas,
Lidia Thorpe doesn’t ‘cut deeply’. Lidia Thorpe DOES shoot her mouth off before engaging her brain. Hence why she is a dangerous idiot.
__________________
Irony overload.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-30/sa-records-1374-new-covid-cases/100730992
Baby dies of covid19 in SA, thanks to “Freedumb” Australia!
Sprocket,
Glad your tests were negative. Here are my and OH’s from a. few hours ago. More to come ……
Take care D&M.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 9:02 pm
Rex Douglas @ #2057 Thursday, December 30th, 2021 – 4:42 pm
[‘Thorpe cuts through so deeply it’s just all too much for establishment conservatives.’]
[‘No Rex, Thorpe is divisive and presents a minority view within the indigenous community as the Greens’ policy platform.’]
Not so, she’s a person more than willing to take on the establishment, borne of her experience. That she deleted her post is neither here nor there. Pepys.
Mavis @ #2118 Thursday, December 30th, 2021 – 6:25 pm
So she hasn’t changed the Greens’ indigenous policies to reflect her own minority views?
D&M
Best wishes from me, and for OH.
If it’s Omicron and you’re vaxxed, latest research is indicating a good outlook..
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.26.21268380v1
Re Sprocket at 7.30 pm
Correct. It’s been worse than an English batting collapse, by some margin. The consequences will last well into the New Year, if the UK experience is indicative.
Various European countries have re-introduced health restrictions, including Portugal, which has the third highest vaccination rate globally and has administered a third dose to 27%, compared to 8.5% in Australia.
In Portugal on New Year’s Eve “no more than ten people can gather in the street, and drinking alcohol outdoors will be prohibited”. Compare that to the lunacy in Sydney tomorrow evening.
See: https://www.euronews.com/2021/12/24/covid-19-spike-felt-across-europe-as-vaccination-remains-stagnant
Australia has failed to learn from elsewhere, despite the tyranny of distance making this easier to do.
The day before the reckless decision on 15 December, Singapore’s Ministry of Health published a statement, Preparing for the Omicron Variant, announcing various measures, including extending the scope of “vaccination-differentiated safe management measures”, not ending them as in NSW.
Once upon a time the Lying Rodent thought Singapore was a fine place, not just because they have a fine for everything. It was admiration for Singapore that led him to drop his opposition to Asian immigration. Yet his epigones cannot use the internet to learn basic precautions from Singapore.
When are the Greens going to cut Lidia Thorpe loose?? If someone outside the Greens said the same things – remember the Hollie Hughes comments – they would scream forever in self righteous anger.
Douglas and Milko:
Bugger…
Out of curiosity, does the UV light included in the kit have a user-replaceable battery?
sprocket_ says:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 9:30 pm
Please stop crawling.
Re Jaeger at 9.47 pm
Yes, standard AA, at least for Hough brand.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 9:27 pm
[‘So she hasn’t changed the Greens’ indigenous policies to reflect her own minority views?’]
Well, she’s only in the minority due to the majority.
Thanks, Dr D.!
Good to know the UV light isn’t intended as a throwaway item; having RAT “refills” (sans light) would help reduce costs/waste.
“The statement of the heart has made it pretty obvious majority of the indigenous community wants no part of Thorp’s style of politics. They want action not stunts”
Actually, i think it is overall more respectful of indigenous people who are against the whole Australia Day thing to actually get action on the Uluru Statement under way soonest. There will be a lot of different opinions as to what to do. My understanding is that the statement calls for a Voice, Treaty, and Truth telling?
Maybe get the Voice in place, actually hear what the Indigenous community actually wants in a Treaty (rather than what the Whitefellas and Militant Loonies claim that they want)….and then do something like Australia Day (remember…Hallowed be a Long Weekend in January / Summer!!!) to celebrate a Treaty??
Overall thought i think a feature of this election is going to be arseholes with a lot of different agendas (SovCit, Anti-Vax, Freedumb,Gun nuts, Racist Islamophobes…) getting hoovered up by the well cashed up Clive and his UAP. Maybe PHON as well???? but i reckon Poorline has missed the boat on this one. Clive will be aiming for Kingmaker status with a Lib/Nat Govt to achieve power without responsibility, and as much baksheesh (in various forms) as he can garner .
Thanks for all your good wishes.
We are double-vaxxed, and booked for boosters on 8th Jan.
Mum has similar symptoms – 86, lives by herself, but got a booster just over a week ago. She is feeling much better than we are – she had one night of feeling bit “off”.Sshe is getting sick of me ringing her to check on her.
I think I mentioned that I caught a bug the previous weekend, and on last Tuesday got a PCR. By Thursday that came back negative,and I was feeling better each day. I seemed to have the tail end of something, but apart from a husky voice and an occasional cough I was doing OK.
Then last night I felt sick in a different way -but undefinable. Today I decided that what I currently have is different to what I was tested for last week.
I decided to get a PCR test tomorrow, but had to go to the localWoolworths to grab some milk.
I saw that they had RATs, and bought a packet – I still thought it was probably the tail end of the bug from last week. After I got home I did the test and got a strong positive – much to my surprise. So, got OH to do the test, and likewise for him.
Two false positives seems like unlikely, and there we are. PCR tests drive through tomorrow, and isolation until we test negative.
We are feeling “fluey” but no terrible symptoms.
Biggest worries:
*Was my negative last Thursday correct? (Probably)
*Thinking of my symptoms, after the negative PCR, and me feeling better each day, can I pinpoint when I started to feel worse again?
* How did I even get it? I have used all the careful public health measures at my disposal -masks, hand washing, physical distancing. And I was in isolation for a few days last week.
* The ring-around of shame, telling people I have the plague, and the I may have exposed them to it. I will not be happy until about four weeks hence when I am sure I have not inadvertently killed my friends and family.
* It was unusual for me to even find RATs for sale. Just lucky I did not have to think twice about the $50 I paid for the pack. Many people in Redfern could not even think of affording $10, let along the $50.
Jaeger
Yes, it does. I will need to buy more RATs, and so I hope I do not need to buy a new UV night each time.
Douglas and Milko:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 10:09 pm
I’m very happy, you’re so happy.
Jaeger @ #2128 Thursday, December 30th, 2021 – 10:05 pm
RATs are, by design, not reusable. They use a fixed phase antibody to bind specific antigen in the fluid phase (from mucosal fluid or saliva) which diffuses over the fixed Ab and “sticks”. The “reporting system” (UV fluorescence or visible spectrum colour change) differs between tests, so a UV source is only needed in some systems. RATs are still a screening test, not suitable for purpose unless it is to prompt isolation pending confirmation by PCR. Scummo’s mob have screwed the pooch while everyone is watching. No amount of retrospective marketing by his courtiers will unstuff this.
Be well D&M.
And on the PH fire……….
So, so many people were that keen to video the proceedings and get it out on Social Media that teh Plod will have an absolute plethora of piccies with people actually tossing FUEL onto a little fire (sticks, chairs…) to make it a bigger one?? Hmmmm, the worry is that we actually share roads that people this stupid are allowed to drive on. 🙁
Mavis
“Why wouldn’t he? I think she’s a breath of fresh air.”
Lidia Thorpe is a fart in an elevator. Bandt and the Greens just look the other way.
Mavis,
I shudder to think how I would be if I have not already had two doses of AZ.
Thank goodness for modern medicine!
Hello D&M
Oh dear. It’s friggen everywhere. You’ll be OK I pray. Think of it as the booster you get when you can’t get a booster. OH came down after Christmas in the city and tested positive this morning. Way too long a story, and complicated beyond belief. We are triple dosed, so prognostically very optimistic.
Mum’s story illustrates exactly what I, and most everyone else here, have been banging on about – the third dose should be 3 months after the second, and RATs should be free and freely available. We all know why not.
(Skip the following if you’re tired – I’m just responding)
Thanks for last night’s thoughts on Shostakovich. By no strange coincidence, I spent Monday with the 5th. It’s the most approachable, written to appease Stalin but cleverly critical by virtue of hyperbole. Anyways, he may have heard thunderbolts, but he definitely heard jackboots and bullets. If you want to heard terror, listen to Shostakovich. It all really needs to be heard live I reckon, certainly the engulfing impact becomes real. The 8th is bordering on unbearable. Vladimir Ashkenazy (the brilliant pianist and ex chief conductor SSO and who had met Shostakovich as a student) had this to say in SSO programme notes for the 5th when they did it (I used to have a blog and make copious blatherings)
If you could describe Shostakovich’s attitude and what he tried to express in his music, it’s simply the tragedy of an individual in impossible circumstances. But we know what he wanted to say because we felt the same as he did, and we somehow deciphered it emotionally and spiritually. We were looking into a mirror of our existence. That’s what it was like. It’s reality. But reality can be exposed only by genius, in musical terms.
Mavis,
You’re mistaking the fact that Lidia Thorpe, because she is an Indigenous Woman, is possessed of refreshing forthrightness. That’s a dangerous assumption to make.
“If it’s Omicron and you’re vaxxed, latest research is indicating a good outlook..
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.12.26.21268380v1”
good to know sprocket_ . Ta.
Funnily though i think what we have kicking around in W.A. may be Delta rather than Omicron??
My 4 month from second vaccine ends in 2 days. Passing a local chemist today i asked for a booster and went straight in for a Pfizer with no booking. (Maybe the advantages of living near a country town).
Now “fully” vaxed until the next Covid variety comes along in a few weeks.
I’m absolutely disgusted with our political class.
The latest changes to the definition of close contacts in order to exclude actual close contacts solely because of their incompetence in not supplying necessary testing rather than to get optimal medical outcomes is outrageous.
Of course this follows their incompetence in not supplying necessary vaccines in time.
It is odd to elect a national government whose goal seems to be to turn Australia into an underdeveloped country. But there you are.
Douglas and Milko,
Seems as though we timed our lunch perfectly. Though it could also be said that we may have given ourselves a false sense of confidence when we escaped the day unscathed. nevertheless, now that you have the dreaded lurgey it is incumbent upon you to rest and relax so that you don’t allow it to overwhelm your body’s ability to recuperate itself. keep us posted on your journey through Rona and get well soon!
C@t, yes, it was a bit of a last dice roll on reflection. The memories consolidate and become more meaningful, with time and tide, and all the clichés, thanks again to those who made the effort.
Kakuru:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 10:23 pm
[‘Lidia Thorpe is a fart in an elevator. Bandt and the Greens just look the other way.’]
I’m not so sure. I admire her guts.
It seems we are going to need three vaccines every year!!
Up to three Covid jabs a year could be needed for protection, data suggests
UK analysis indicates Pfizer and Moderna boosters less effective against Omicron than Delta variant and appear to drop away further after nine weeks.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/dec/30/up-to-three-covid-jabs-a-year-could-be-needed-for-protection-data-suggests
UQ molecular clamp vaccine Mk 2 FTW?
Evening all. On the submarine issue, there has been a lot going on in a regional naval arms race before and after the AUKUS decision. China is effectively using the supply of subs to almost any friendly power as a diplomatic tool. They have or are supplying 12 to navies in the Indian Ocean. Only two of these postdated AUKUS.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2021/12/chinas-surprise-submarine-move-shows-its-growing-power/
Most of these are diesels (SSKs) with AIP. So you can see why the RAN no longer felt the Attack Class would be “regionally superior”.
In case you missed Kevin Rudd’s Tweet:
A recurring nightmare. Morrison failed to order enough vaccines, then boosters, and now the rapid antigen tests he has pushed for. Next step: blame the Labor Premiers. FFS. Just do your job for once Scotty.
https://theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2021/dec/29/australia-covid-news-live-case-numbers-nsw-vic-qld-morrison-vaccines-omicron-testing-delays?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other… https://pic.twitter.com/TXhKeSilAG
From nearly 2 years ago now the advice of the pm of Australia has been “to throw off the doona, live with the virus and grow the economy”
Every utterance past that has been consistent with the foregoing quote
Bearing in mind that advice pre dated the development and then the distribution of a vaccine
Fortunately Australia has States and State governments (who have each attracted a commentary by the pm of Australia, the commentary consistent with the quote at the opening paragraph
And still today – “we can not” isolate people because they have been in close contact with an infected person, may be infected and may infect others
To “lock people up” damages the economy and the functioning of the economy
My take is that from the numbers being tested (and the demand on home testing packs) there is concern across the community and I would guess that the majority of people have modified their behaviour because of risk – and fear
I also base this assumption on the anecdotal evidence I observe of people wearing masks where social distancing is difficult so at shopping centres as an example plus the adherence to QR Code registrations
Plus that our local shopping strip was deserted today – the eateries closed (on a Thursday)
How will this play out in the lead up to an election- because the pm of Australia is not for the changing hence has distanced himself from flexibility
How will the rising numbers, particularly in the subservient NSW, play out?
How will the reporting from overseas play out – and are Australians watching what is evolving across the World?
Are they worried by what they are seeing and hearing?
And what is the expectation of government in such times – and is the expectation that government should “get out of our lives”?
Noting the words “botched” and other such reference including by the Grattan Institute today – in regards the vaccine roll out including in regards “boosters” and other measures courtesy of government “getting out of our lives”
“a change of gears”
“Hundreds of thousands being taken out of circulation” and we now have a different mutation
Well the hundreds of thousands are because of the spread of this virus
Look around the World – and look at the numbers in Australia led by NSW (ironically)
What will the voters of Australia make of this
Noting the warnings of the WHO and the responses of other Nations, referencing France for starters
Because this is the outcome when a population is riddled with the virus
And Australia, led by NSW, is leading Australia to being riddled by the virus
And it is summer in Australia
And most dangerous to me is that the flexibility to accept and act on the best advice of the WHO and health professionals employed in public health is compromised by an intransigent Australian pm
And they tell you to get out of dud superannuation funds and shop utility and other services
Go figure
What would happen if a more lethal variant turned up in Australia and throughout the world now? The outcomes are too hideous to contemplate. However if Omicron is the last mutation of the virus then letting it rip will be the worst decision of the pandemic.