Courtesy of The Australian, Newspoll brings its regular Christmas present of quarterly breakdowns, combining results from its polls from October to December, allowing for state and other breakdowns with plausible large samples and tolerable margins of error. It shows Labor with leading substantially in each state with the distinct exception of Queensland: by 53-47 in New South Wales, out from 52-48 in the previous quarter, for a swing of about 5% compared with the 2019 election; 56-44 in Victoria, in from 58-42 last quarter, for a swing to Labor of about 3%; 55-45 in South Australia, a swing of about 3%; and, most remarkably, by 55-45 in Western Australia, out from 54-46 last quarter for a swing approaching 11%. The Coalition retains a lead of 54-46 in Queensland, in from 55-45 last quarter, which still amounts to a Labor swing of about 4.5%.
The gender breakdowns are unchanged on last quarter with Labor leading 54-46 among women and 52-48 among men. However, Labor’s lead among the 18-to-34 age cohort from 65-35 to 69-31, with the others little changed (54-46 to Labor among 35-to-49, 53-47 and 60-40 to the Coalition among 50-to-64 and 65-plus. Labor appeares to have gained particularly among lower income cohorts over the past year, with current leads of 55-45 among those with less than $50,000 household income and 56-44 among those with between $50,000 and $100,000. These figures compare respectively with 51-49 to Labor and 51-49 to the Coalition in the April-to-June result. Labor’s deficit among those with more than $150,000 is down over this time from 56-44 to 53-47, but its 52-48 lead among those on $100,000 to $150,000 is down from 53-47. The breakdowns combined the results of four polls conducted between September 29 to December 4 from an overall sample of 6102.
The Newspoll release provides new data for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which I am pleased to announce now includes its own state breakdowns that you can explored by clicking on the tabs (if it isn’t working for you, hard refreshing and trying again later seems to do the trick). Those of you who saw this before I added the Newspoll numbers will note that they have softened what was previously a double-digit swing in Queensland, which points to a disconnect between Newspoll’s numbers for the state and those of Essential Research, which have generally credited Labor with a two-party lead in the state.
Also yesterday from the Age/Herald was a piece on Resolve Strategic’s policy and political performance data, which I don’t believe adds anything to what was included with the regular monthly result, though it’s served in a form that shows how these often-ignored numbers have tracked over time. Specifically, the Coalition has weakened in its strongest areas, with leads diminishing on economic management, national security and COVID-19, while holding steady on the weaker ground of jobs and wages, health care and environment.
nath says:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 7:06 pm
BK says:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 6:57 pm
Lidea Thorpe doesn’t have much going for her. Nasty, really.
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Bit of an ask to expect Indigenous people to revere that building considering, well…everything.
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What is striking is how conservative some of the elder Labor partisan volk on PB really are.
Bugger, that was supposed to be China Doll.
There is strong evidence that the act of arson was not committed by First Peoples.
It seems racist to leap to that conclusion.
Anyone who has read the Da Vinci code and who has also studied Zerlo’s posts with the attention they so richly deserve, it is clear that P1, nath and Lars are Zerlo’s doll bludgers.
Bowe will henceforth be managing an establishment of uncertain repute called ‘The Valley of the Dolls’.
Boerwar @ #2047 Thursday, December 30th, 2021 – 7:00 pm
Those were such embarrassing and damaging statements, I had honestly forgotten about them until you brought them up right now. In fact, the latter I barely remember at all and I am much more engaged than the general voter.
Frednk says:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 7:33 pm
Greens who chickened out because they didn’t get what they wanted.
I don’t think anyone here has leapt to that conclusion, Zoomster.
There be dragons and heroes: Dr Li Wengliang
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-30/thousands-message-late-chinese-covid-whistleblower-doctor-2-year/100732080
Deleted By Australian MPs
@DeletedByAusMPs
DT Senator Lidia Thorpe: Seems like the colonial system is burning down. Happy New Year everyone. #AlwayswasAlwayswillBeAboriginalLand…’
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This is obviously disappointing for the public image of Indigenous people mostly because it presents fodder for the Skynoose after dark mob and shock jocks to feed off in their bigoted rants. A step backward for progressive dialogue and genuine change I would have thought.
Thorpe cuts through so deeply it’s just all too much for establishment conservatives.
Not a big call at all, more like a realistic assessment.
So who got his booster today?
‘EB says:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 7:40 pm
Deleted By Australian MPs
@DeletedByAusMPs
DT Senator Lidia Thorpe: Seems like the colonial system is burning down. Happy New Year everyone. #AlwayswasAlwayswillBeAboriginalLand…’
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This is obviously disappointing for the public image of Indigenous people mostly because it presents fodder for the Skynoose after dark mob and shock jobs to feed off in their bigoted rants. A step backward for progressive dialogue and genuine change I would have thought.’
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It is an interesting proposition. Hypothetically, First Nations people should be as entitled to have dopey and provocative politicians as non-Indigenous People.
Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 7:42 pm
Thorpe cuts through so deeply it’s just all too much for establishment conservatives.
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Yeah. Some posters are truly upset that she’s stealing parsnip Bandt’s oxygen and that she is single-handedly gathering so much electoral support for the policies that are so desperately needed by Indigenous First Nations peoples.
Did the Federal Minister for Health cover himself in more glory today?
Got it all in hand, has he?
Rex Douglas says:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 7:42 pm
Thorpe cuts through so deeply it’s just all too much for establishment conservatives.
The statement of the heart has made it pretty obvious majority of the indigenous community wants no part of Thorp’s style of politics. They want action not stunts
Rex
Well, obviously she upset Bandt.
So Morrison Gladys and Dom have stuffed it so badly we’re now abandoning testing so as to lower the number of positive cases.
I guess today was a transactional win for Morrison.
Here’s one for A-E and Socrates:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/30/south-korea-presidential-contender-vows-to-seek-nuclear-powered-submarines-months-after-australias-aukus-deal
Lidia Thorpe is so cutting she lost Northcote a seat the Greens say is there heartland.
Rex Douglas: “Thorpe cuts through so deeply it’s just all too much for establishment conservatives.”
If it was such a great comment, then why was there such a rush to remove it from her Twitter account?
zoomster @ #2063 Thursday, December 30th, 2021 – 7:48 pm
Yep. 😆
‘zoomster says:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 7:48 pm
Rex
Well, obviously she upset Bandt.’
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Bandt lost control of Thorpe some time ago. It’s a shambles.
meher baba @ #2067 Thursday, December 30th, 2021 – 7:48 pm
Politics.
I think I have finally nailed exactly what it is about Morrison that gives me the creeps.
He is a prime minister who stalks a nation.
BW: “It is an interesting proposition. Hypothetically, First Nations people should be as entitled to have dopey and provocative politicians as non-Indigenous People.”
And, by that logic, Indigenous people are also entitled to team up with QAnon-loving anti-vaxxers if they so wish.
And that’s probably correct, but it’s not an argument that fills me with any great enthusiasm.
Boerwar @ #2065 Thursday, December 30th, 2021 – 7:46 pm
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Oh yes he did a presser this morning where he trotted out the new three word slogan Scotty dreamt up while he was awol.. The APCCC via the National Cabinet was proclaimed the “VOICE OF TRUTH” repeatedly at Hunt’s very short presser this morning. . Give that one about 2-3 days to die off it will be back to the Liberal Party focus groups again. And yes BW, that was his total contribution today.
‘meher baba says:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 7:52 pm
BW: “It is an interesting proposition. Hypothetically, First Nations people should be as entitled to have dopey and provocative politicians as non-Indigenous People.”
And, by that logic, Indigenous people are also entitled to team up with QAnon-loving anti-vaxxers if they so wish.
And that’s probably correct, but it’s not an argument that fills me with any great enthusiasm.’
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Comrade, it is a pitfall with which I am all too familiar.
Rex Douglas: “Politics.”
Well that’s Ms Thorpe’s profession. So perhaps we can call her tweet “unprofessional.”
As for her comment about Hollie Hughes, a word doesn’t immediately come to mind that would adequately describe that.
I suspect Ms Thorpe is going to be the gift that keeps on giving. I’m not quite sure who the recipient of that gift would be, but I don’t think it’s the Greens.
EB @ #2077 Thursday, December 30th, 2021 – 7:53 pm
Unauthorised activity…
This seems promising though not without caveats, one of which is if the latest variant finds its way into aged-care, it wouldn’t be too hard to find a placement:
[‘Recent official South African medical reports and countrywide novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) data have indicated that since early November, when omicron was first detected, COVID-19 cases substantially increased. However, most patients had, at worst, mild symptoms, and cases are now in steep decline. These observations substantially differ from the previous waves, including those attributed to the delta variant.
Reporters also stated that even though vaccinated and unvaccinated people developed the disease in roughly equal numbers, most hospitalised patients were unvaccinated. And although the current South African COVID-19 wave may be coming to an end, South Africa’s omicron wave experiences may follow very similar patterns in other countries.
In contrast to this relatively encouraging news, some recent tweets and localised reports suggest that some hospitals in South Africa have experienced – or are experiencing – increasing numbers of hospitalised patients, with increasing numbers of patients requiring treatment in intensive care units and needing mechanical ventilation – a key indicator of severe COVID-19.’]
https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog/africa/south-african-and-uk-hospitalisation-data-what-it-tells-us-about-how-deadly-omicron-is-80878
meher baba @ #2075 Thursday, December 30th, 2021 – 7:54 pm
I agree that Thorpe is political poison for the Greens given the general conservative attitude of the electorate.
BK
“Lidea Thorpe doesn’t have much going for her. Nasty, really.”
I get that she’s angry. But lashing out just weakens her own cause. Bandt and the more sensible Greens (relatively speaking) must be gritting their teeth.
6 days now since we first tested, no test results so far.
+ case in house, mum (84) not feeling well (symptoms?). Took her to test clinic only to have police turn us away, not their problem.
Finally got her tested at Haberfield (Syd NSW).
Let’s see how long it takes….
Rex
Are you seriously defending Thorpe’s comment?
“I agree that Thorpe is political poison for the Greens given the general conservative attitude of the electorate.”
This is a very perceptive comment. To who ever wrote this comment: WHO ARE YOU? – AND WHAT HAVE YOU DONE WITH THE REAL REX DOUGLAS?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/12/27/newspoll-and-bludgertrack-breakdowns/comment-page-42/#comment-3786185
Northcote was a by-election victory. The Greens have never so far retained a single member seat gained at a by-election, so a Green retain may or may not have happened with a different MP. The Greens have a much higher success rate at retaining single member seats won at general elections.
Interesting photos of the so called ‘Smoking Ceremony’ – the guy with the megaphone, allegedly – according to PRGuy – is associated with this crowd..
Far-right group Millions March Against Mandatory Vaccines has claimed responsibility for the event. Live streamers broadcast the arson attack, which will make police work easier. And of course Channel 9 have covered the story with its signature menacing incompetence. Painted the whole thing as a peaceful smoking ceremony which accidentally got out of hand. A slap in the face to the indigenous community who are being exploited by these far-right grubs.
And who should be in attendance?
And the guy with the megaphone thought that throwing chairs on the fire was the tradition..
No wonder Lidia Thorpe deleted that knee jerk tweet…
The omicron train had left the NSW station by 15 December.
13oo cases that day, 1,700 the next, 2,500 four days later excetera, excetera
Whether loosenings exacerbated that may be analysed. Victoria, as usual, will tell us a lot.
Safe to say I am now at the point of no surprise when those I know tell me they are positive.
As everyone knows (or should know), pepper spray is not flammable.
And in scenes reminiscent of the Jan 6 storming of the capital, here is live footage being streamed by the ‘anti-vaxxers’ Million March people..
https://www.facebook.com/MMAMVAUSTRALIA/videos/281886930633665/
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/12/27/newspoll-and-bludgertrack-breakdowns/comment-page-42/#comment-3786210
There are flammable and non-flammable versions. The non-flammable versions have increased in use due to tasers (for not burning people reasons).
This from Larissa Baldwin, GetUp’s Indigenous coordinator..
Can confirm that the protest at old Parliament House is full of antivax freedom day protesters who once again hijacking our movements. Their actions are disgraceful
I can understand Thorpe’s vicarious (maybe direct) pain; Wyatt, almost a waste of space. Indigenous Australians have achieved little by passivity. Barty to win the AO.
As an aside, these anti-vaxxer terrorists have previously pretended to be unionists, teachers and healthcare workers.
I’m sure the authorities are on their case..
sprocket_:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 8:22 pm
[‘As an aside, these anti-vaxxer terrorists have previously pretended to be unionists, teachers and healthcare workers.
I’m sure the authorities are on their case..?’]
I trust you’re a law & order advocate?
Sprocket’s video is just confusing IMO. Who knows who set that fire at old Parliament house. But there is no doubt ScuMo + Co will use it to attack everything other than right wing anti vax nutters.
Zerlo:
Thursday, December 30, 2021 at 8:24 pm
[‘Is Rex seriously defending that twat ?’]
Why wouldn’t he? I think she’s a breath of fresh air.