The latest monthly Resolve Strategic federal poll for the Age/Herald marks a return to this series’ lean to the Coalition relative to other pollsters, with a two-point increase in their primary vote to 39% and a corresponding drop in Labor’s to 32%. The Greens, One Nation and other parties are steady at 11%, 3% and 5% respectively, with the low collective major party vote reflected in a likewise steady 9% for the pollster’s “independents” measure. The latter is a contentious feature of the poll, as it is unclear how or if the pollster deals with uncertainty as to where independents might run, as nothing is publicly known about how its questionnaire is structured.
Resolve Strategic doesn’t provide two-party preferred numbers, but I estimate a 51-49 break in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred based on 2019 preference flows, reversing the result from last month. Breakdowns for the large states suggest the Coalition leads 53-47 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 last time, and a swing of a bit over 1% in their favour compared with 2019; Labor leads 53-47 in Victoria, little changed on either the last poll or the 2019 election; and the Coalition leads 56-44 in Queensland, compared with 51-49 last time, for a swing to Labor of about 2.5%. Despite the voting intention numbers, the poll finds Scott Morrison has taken a solid hit on his personal ratings, consistent with the finding of other polls over the past month, with his approval rating down seven points to 40% and disapproval up to 49%. Anthony Albanese is respectively up one to 31% and four to 45%, and he has narrowed his deficit on preferred prime minister from to 44-26 to 40-29.
Full results from the poll, which was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606, can be viewed here. Further results from the poll concerning the economic outlook (most expect it to improve) and immigration (most believe there should be less of it than pre-pandemic) can be viewed here. The pollster’s bi-monthly New South Wales state voting intention result will presumably be along this evening.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which now comes with a flash new display, though I personally will miss the PDF that brought it all together in one easily stored file. This release features neither the monthly leadership ratings nor the quarterly dump of voting intention numbers. What it does include is the regular question on COVID-19 response by the federal government, whose good rating is down three to 45% with poor steady on 29%, and the state governments, with New South Wales’ good rating steady on 57%, Victoria’s down six to 50% and Queensland’s down two to 60%.
A question on best party to manage the economy does not follow the usual form for this issue in favouring the Coalition: instead, Labor and Liberal are tied on 34%. Furthermore, Labor leads 40-29 as the better party to “ensure the economy works in the interests of everyday Australians”, and 37-23 as best party to manage household expenses. Perhaps relatedly, fully 62% wanted the government to play a more active role in managing the economy, with only 16% wanting it to be less active and 22% thinking it has it about right. Further questions relate to government help for businesses to recover from the pandemic (respondents overwhelmingly in favour), an emissions target for 2030 (respondents believe it should be more ambitious) and freedom of speech (respondents actually aren’t all that keen on it). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1095.
Finally, Sky News has a curious set of figures from a poll of 4010 respondents conducted way back in September by unheralded outfit Ergo Strategy, described as “News Corp’s final exclusive survey”, though I can’t find any record of anything earlier. No voting intention figures are provided, but we are told how voters for each party in 2019 intend to vote this time. Eleven per cent of Coalition voters said they were switching to Labor compared with 5% vice-versa, suggesting a shift of around 3% in favour of Labor.
outside left @ #135 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 11:53 am
Open fires. Ovaltine.
https://youtu.be/lcgEN3CaqXs
At lunch but en route well prepared signs on telegraph poles saying “Do not read the Herald Sun” and “Don’t buy the Australian”
So a fight back against the 4th Estate
The same signs could reference other media outlets (with apologies to Gittens and Maley)
C@tmomma @ #241 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 1:52 pm
Wow. A post that displays stupidity, political ignorance, nastiness and misogyny in only 8 words! And two of those words are my moniker!
Scott @ #221 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 1:29 pm
Let’s not forget lives lost.
Funny how often that gets forgotten.
Boerwar @ #244 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:56 pm
So take away those things. Like what was done for the ROC athletes.
Based on skill/merit. So what? Their skills exist independently of anything China does. They’re either good enough to compete at the Olympic level or they’re not.
The same could be said of anyone who’s attended a public school/university. The state owns them because it helped pay for them? That’s petty.
Because unlike them, we care about civil liberties and personal agency?
Morrison again is using misinformation of the highest vaccination rate in the world
Russia is at 37% fully vaccinated = over 50 million people
Australia is no where near the country with the highest population with the highest vaccination rate
Much as it pains me to ever find myself in agreement with Scomo, let alone the likes of Gerard Rennick, but I really can’t see the problem with lowering the threshold on compensation for Covid vaccine side-effects.
Further to Morrison’s importation of right wing BS from the USA, his sudden love of freedom being the latest, I doubt that it will resonate with the majority.
Australians like our safety nets, things that are not easily obtained by citizens of the US. Examples include subsidised health care, regulated superannuation, and pensions. The last thing Australians want is for the Government to get out of our lives.
For Morrison to try to win another term by importing right wing BS, along with his religious affiliation, just shows how out of touch with reality this clown really is.
The LNP can’t win with him at the helm.
What Morrison and the lib/nats propaganda media unit should be telling Australians
For countries around a similar size as Australia population , Australia is amongst the highest
Rex Douglas at 1:34 pm
So what are the factions after Dan and what are their motivations ?
Do the rules/conventions about speaking through the chair which apply in the House of Reps not apply in the Senate? I’ve just noticed how often senators address each other directly.
It is no good for Labor to try to make point of order to this speaker
Labor should start to put in motions against this speaker
On Covid being seasonal, and therefore regional:
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/11/covid-seasonal-winter/620766/?
a r says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 2:04 pm
Boerwar @ #244 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:56 pm
Those athletes are marching to national flags.
They get the national anthem played when they get a win.
So take away those things. Like what was done for the ROC athletes.
They are chosen by national sporting associations.
Based on skill/merit. So what? Their skills exist independently of anything China does. They’re either good enough to compete at the Olympic level or they’re not.
Their training is subsidized heavily by taxpayers.
The same could be said of anyone who’s attended a public school/university. The state owns them because it helped pay for them? That’s petty.
The comrades are not buying your line. Why should we?
Because unlike them, we care about civil liberties and personal agency?
——————————————-
Your arguments only hold water if the olympics were a personal event. Clearly, they are not. We currently do not allow individuals to go off and become mercenaries. Why should we let them go off and facilitate genocide?
A tactic to outflank the side would be raise the idea of issuing a medal to health care personal (including all hospital staff, testers etc) who have worked during this pandemic. The opposition could raise it and it would need to be agreed to by the government. Alternatively, the government could announce it and use it as a distraction from the Rennick fiasco.
Wrong footing your opponent never hurts (an example of this was when Latham was LOO he asked Howard about reading to kids).
Joyce is pissed again
‘hazza4257 says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 2:08 pm
Do the rules/conventions about speaking through the chair which apply in the House of Reps not apply in the Senate? I’ve just noticed how often senators address each other directly.’
———————————
It should be more or less the same. I believe they have an acting deputy president in the Senate from time to time and, the last time I heard him do the biz he did not seem to be particularly agile or effective.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 2:00 pm
The solution is relatively straight forward: a bed tax.
If the beds are occupied, not taxed.
If the beds are empty, taxed.
‘Beds’ to be calculated on a notional pro rata of the floor space of a building.
Bed taxes are to be ploughed by the governments into social housing.
Good for the environment. Good for the economy. Good for the homeless.
———————-
Good for business. It is bad investment policy to investment in capital items what sit vacant.
New Zealand said Wednesday it will not reopen to foreign travellers for at least another five months, as it slowly relaxes some of the world’s toughest pandemic border restrictions.
The Pacific nation’s Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said New Zealanders stranded in Australia could return home from mid-January and Kiwis travelling from elsewhere would be allowed in a month later.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 12:36 pm
The only bedfellows who that strange are those you are supporting, the fascists & terrorists.
mikehilliard @ #233 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 1:37 pm
The ABC laid all of the rollout statements (lies) and subsequent shambles in an excellent report, with pointed illustrative graphs, all ready for Labor to use:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-05-28/untangling-australia-s-covid-vaccine-rollout-timetable/100156720
Given that negative gearing was first introduced to encourage mum and dad investors to provide rental stock maybe the upcoming Labor government should revisit the scheme in relation to properties that are only available for short term holiday rentals.
At the moment people can purchase a holiday home in a tourist location, rent it for a few weeks each year and benefit from negative gearing. This was not the original intent of the legislation.
Meanwhile talking of corruption.
Liberals Love Corruption:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_rTFRLqM6U
I think it’s a bold but smart move for Labor to make cost of living/economic issues a focus at the moment
Albanese and Burke are trying to school the Speaker.
(And I wish that Barnaby would stop calling Albo “Albanaze”.)
What a shame to have gone from two good presiding officers in Scott Ryan and Tony Smith – to two weak shills in Slade Brockman and Andrew Wallace.
What a farce Question Time has become now. It really was wishful thinking to hope that the new speaker might be impartial with the government in such a shaky electoral position.
Haven’t seen any comments on the new commission in relation to sexual and domestic violence announced by the Morrison government last night. Is the fact it was announced just before the press embargo on Labors policy relevant.
Perhaps Marx didn’t entirely view capitalism as immoral:
[‘And deliciously — especially for anyone who’s been engrossed by the GameStop saga this month — Karl used some of his stimmy cheques to speculate on the stock market, relishing the chance to inflict pain on professional traders.
In a letter to his maternal uncle, Lion Phillips, a wealthy Dutch businessman, he even bragged about his winnings.
“I have, which will surprise you not a little, been speculating — partly in American funds, but more especially in English stocks, which are springing up like mushrooms this year … [and which] are forced up to quite an unreasonable level and then, for the most part, collapse,” he wrote.
“In this way, I have made over £400 and, now that the complexity of the political situation affords greater scope, I shall begin all over again.’]
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-31/karl-marx-also-liked-to-bet-against-the-stock-market/13106214
Mexicanbeemer
I agree Jill Hennessy retiring is a loss. She was a good operator.
I know Danielle Green is resigning due to partner being very ill.
Mavis
The bequest in ‘today’s money’ would be worth £109,419.The £400 profit from his dabbling in stocks/shares equivalent to £53,375.11. A nice bit of pocket money.
Technology not taxes
Taxes, taxes, taxes
Keeping the gas on
These next election slogans are so lame.
Morrison even lies about lying.
Never been a worse person in the office of PM.
Or Speaker, even counting Bronnie.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 12:41 pm
Ven @ #118 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 11:34 am
”
Shellbellsays:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:21 am
Richard William Duncan Pound CC OQ CD QC OLY is on the case
”
Which case?
Dick Pound : Vice President of the IOC:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Pound
”
See I did not recognise him till you called him a Dick. 🙂
Good strategy going after wage constraints in regional areas caused by labour hire companies. They need to tie that to the general economic benefit of the regions. If labour in the regions get paid more, they spend more in the regions.
They have to be careful tho. These days, regional employers are more and more large companies. But there would still be a lot of small family businesses using labour hire firms to simplify their books.
Hey Yabba – your article was from May 2021 – do you have anything more current?
Most of the comments were about people being vaccinated by the end of October – that’s pretty much were we landed .
Sounds like mission accomplished!
Time for drug and alcohol testing in parliament.
Then again, a few nips might be the only way to get through some of these sessions with any sanity.
I don’t think it’s premature to declare that Speaker Andrew Wallace is simply hopeless. He is highly credentialled though, with Morrison declaring that Wallace is a man of deep faith, just like he is.
poroti:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 2:47 pm
[‘Mavis
The bequest in ‘today’s money’ would be worth £109,419.The £400 profit from his dabbling in stocks/shares equivalent to £53,375.11. A nice bit of pocket money.’]
Quite handsome sums. Following these revelations I’ve lost respect for Marx and Engels and I’m cancelling my membership of the Communist Party.
lizzie @ #285 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 2:49 pm
I bet Tony Smith is up the back champing at the bit to go down and show him how it’s done. 🙂
Labor is on the record as saying that were they in government and Smith was still in the parliament they would be happy to have him as speaker.
I somehow doubt the same courtesy will be extended to Wallace.
Kirky @ #205 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 1:06 pm
Legislation except for “money bills” can be introduced in the Senate.
/pedantry
Lars Von trier
Here you go Morrison breaking his original promise
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-03/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-scott-morrison-original-timetable/100342474
Prominent among them was to fully vaccinate the population over about eight months, starting in late February or early March and finishing in October.
This plan was first articulated by Health Minister Greg Hunt.
During a December 28, 2020 news conference, he said the government expected the population to be fully vaccinated by the end of October.
I went a’googling Andrew Wallace
(wiki)
One has naughty thoughts about which one, or was it all three.
Mr. Newbie @ #283 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 2:47 pm
Because, what do you get when you have government so small it’s only there to collect taxes and deliver patronage (his other slogan-government should get out of the way), plus absolutely minimal taxes (only enough to pay for the military, basic health needs and $$ for mates)? Abuse of the nation and its people by the most powerful. For profit.
ItzaDream @ #295 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 3:08 pm
Shades of Tony Abbott.
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/23/january-6-subpoena-proud-boys-oath-keepers-523255
The Jan. 6 select committee on Tuesday subpoenaed the leaders of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers, extremist groups that responded to former President Donald Trump’s call to descend on Washington and played central roles in the attack on the Capitol.
The House committee issued subpoenas Tuesday to Proud Boys Chair Enrique Tarrio and Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes, as well as both of the organizations they lead. It also subpoenaed a lower-profile far-right group, 1st Amendment Praetorian, along with its leader, Robert Patrick Lewis.
So Scott there’s 38.5m doses now and the promise was 40m by the end of October.
Mission accomplished!
It’s naughty of you and Yabba to spread misinformation.
Also from the article
Morrison and his cronies incompetence is to blame for the lockdowns
Had the government delivered on its original timetable, Australia would almost certainly have been in a much stronger position, with shorter lockdowns and less draconian measures needed to quash the virus.