Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 32, Greens 11

Resolve Strategic continues to be the odd pollster out in suggesting a tight race on two-party preferred, with the Coalition if anything slightly in front.

The latest monthly Resolve Strategic federal poll for the Age/Herald marks a return to this series’ lean to the Coalition relative to other pollsters, with a two-point increase in their primary vote to 39% and a corresponding drop in Labor’s to 32%. The Greens, One Nation and other parties are steady at 11%, 3% and 5% respectively, with the low collective major party vote reflected in a likewise steady 9% for the pollster’s “independents” measure. The latter is a contentious feature of the poll, as it is unclear how or if the pollster deals with uncertainty as to where independents might run, as nothing is publicly known about how its questionnaire is structured.

Resolve Strategic doesn’t provide two-party preferred numbers, but I estimate a 51-49 break in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred based on 2019 preference flows, reversing the result from last month. Breakdowns for the large states suggest the Coalition leads 53-47 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 last time, and a swing of a bit over 1% in their favour compared with 2019; Labor leads 53-47 in Victoria, little changed on either the last poll or the 2019 election; and the Coalition leads 56-44 in Queensland, compared with 51-49 last time, for a swing to Labor of about 2.5%. Despite the voting intention numbers, the poll finds Scott Morrison has taken a solid hit on his personal ratings, consistent with the finding of other polls over the past month, with his approval rating down seven points to 40% and disapproval up to 49%. Anthony Albanese is respectively up one to 31% and four to 45%, and he has narrowed his deficit on preferred prime minister from to 44-26 to 40-29.

Full results from the poll, which was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606, can be viewed here. Further results from the poll concerning the economic outlook (most expect it to improve) and immigration (most believe there should be less of it than pre-pandemic) can be viewed here. The pollster’s bi-monthly New South Wales state voting intention result will presumably be along this evening.

Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which now comes with a flash new display, though I personally will miss the PDF that brought it all together in one easily stored file. This release features neither the monthly leadership ratings nor the quarterly dump of voting intention numbers. What it does include is the regular question on COVID-19 response by the federal government, whose good rating is down three to 45% with poor steady on 29%, and the state governments, with New South Wales’ good rating steady on 57%, Victoria’s down six to 50% and Queensland’s down two to 60%.

A question on best party to manage the economy does not follow the usual form for this issue in favouring the Coalition: instead, Labor and Liberal are tied on 34%. Furthermore, Labor leads 40-29 as the better party to “ensure the economy works in the interests of everyday Australians”, and 37-23 as best party to manage household expenses. Perhaps relatedly, fully 62% wanted the government to play a more active role in managing the economy, with only 16% wanting it to be less active and 22% thinking it has it about right. Further questions relate to government help for businesses to recover from the pandemic (respondents overwhelmingly in favour), an emissions target for 2030 (respondents believe it should be more ambitious) and freedom of speech (respondents actually aren’t all that keen on it). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1095.

Finally, Sky News has a curious set of figures from a poll of 4010 respondents conducted way back in September by unheralded outfit Ergo Strategy, described as “News Corp’s final exclusive survey”, though I can’t find any record of anything earlier. No voting intention figures are provided, but we are told how voters for each party in 2019 intend to vote this time. Eleven per cent of Coalition voters said they were switching to Labor compared with 5% vice-versa, suggesting a shift of around 3% in favour of Labor.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,134 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 32, Greens 11”

Comments Page 3 of 23
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  1. Boerwar at 10:59 am
    Yes indeedee. The ‘Peppa Pig’ effort was a performance BoJo has always been giving. All part of his marketing as a jolly good, slightly eccentric, chap. Not in the least an Eton schooled born to rule Tory upper class twit..

  2. Good on Boer: volunteering up our athlete’s once in a lifetime opportunity to compete at the Olympics for a bit of neo-con gesture politics.

    Get back to me when we decide to not participate with FIFA football competition s least we risk coming into contact with folk who lack our refined petite bourgeois sensibilities. Maybe boycotting the Qatar World Cup would be a good start.

    After that perhaps we can declare Daniel Ricciardo as a war criminal for participating in next weeks Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.

    I for one am dissatisfied with the outcome of French nuclear testing in the 1990s and the egregious sinking of the Rainbow Warrior, so clearly: Paris 2024 is verboten (sorry kiddies for devoting a decade of your life to pursuing the dream, but surely you understand).

  3. Good on Boer: volunteering up our athlete’s once in a lifetime opportunity to compete at the Olympics for a bit of neo-con gesture politics.

    Get back to me when we decide to not participate with FIFA football competition s least we risk coming into contact with folk who lack our refined petite bourgeois sensibilities. Maybe boycotting the Qatar World Cup would be a good start.

    After that perhaps we can declare Daniel Ricciardo as a war criminal for participating in next weeks Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.

    I for one am dissatisfied with the outcome of French nuclear testing in the 1990s and the egregious sinking of the Rainbow Warrior, so clearly: Paris 2024 is verboten (sorry kiddies for devoting a decade of your life to pursuing the dream, but surely you understand).

  4. “ Indeed. Not that it matters to me. I can’t go even if I wanted to. Xi has black-listed me and many others because of opinions expressed about the Uighur.”

    You are a grave loss to our 4 man bobsled team. Alas.

  5. nath says:
    Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:13 am
    Bloos says:
    Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:09 am

    Labor will not parlay with their foes.
    ______
    You presume to speak for the Labor party on all kinds of issues. The fact is you don’t have a clue what the Labor leadership will do.

    Still less do you. The leadership Labor at all levels know the Greens utterly detest Labor. There is a very realistic appraisal of the Greens, who have done their very best to undermine Labor ever since their formation. None of this is lost on Labor.

  6. Has Lidia Thorpe ever attacked Ken Wyatt and the Fossil Fuel government he is a Minister in, or does she just play the game of attacking Labor?

    nath @ #97 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 11:09 am

    C@tmomma says:
    Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:07 am

    It will never happen. However, you have just made the best case for electing a majority Labor government. Greens hubris.
    _______
    Of course it will happen again. Whenever the Greens have BOP. History has shown that.

    No. You fail to acknowledge reality. here, let me help you.

    1. Labor has stated there will be no deals done with The Greens.
    2. Adam Bandt is only one MP.
    3. There are more Independent Cross Benchers than there are Green’ MPs in the Lower House that Labor could come to an agreement with to form a Minority government, should that be necessary.
    4. These Cross Benchers are more rational and sensible than The Greens will ever be, especially when it comes to making ‘demands’ of Labor. They don’t. They would consult with Labor and co-operate on legislation. Definitely not try and hold Labor to ransom like the juvenile Greens think they can get away with.

    Dream on, nath. Not going to happen. Will never happen. Albanese was there. He doesn’t need reminding what a bunch of feckless poseurs The Greens are.

  7. It’s probable that, in the event of a minority government, the only thing that Labor will ask the Greens is whether they will guarantee supply/confidence for a minority Labor government. In that case, everything else after that can be dealt with on a case by case basis.

    If the Greens don’t like that, then they can always support a minority Coalition government.

  8. DisplayName @ #107 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 11:20 am

    It’s probable that, in the event of a minority government, the only thing that Labor will ask the Greens is whether they will guarantee supply/confidence for a minority Labor government. In that case, everything else after that can be dealt with on a case by case basis.

    If the Greens don’t like that, then they can always support a minority Coalition government.

    Simples.

    Yeah, THEY can crawl across broken glass to get to Labor Ministers for what they want. 🙂

  9. Bloos says:
    Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:19 am

    Still less do you.
    _______
    Every time the Greens have held the BOP some arrangement has been undertaken with the ALP. Twice in Tasmania I believe, in the ACT and once Federally.

  10. Also, any Labor government needs Greens Senators to pass anything that the Coalition doesn’t agree with. All part of the Greens master plan to squeeze Labor by the balls before doing them in and replacing them.

  11. Hello Steve777-great post re the issues around immigration, I think you’ve covered pretty much all the issues, except maybe the impact of immigration on resource depletion. I don’t know what exactly the right level of immigration is, but I’m sure it’s lower than the pre-Covid level. It shouldn’t be a tool to provide a pool of desperate low-skilled labour for the business community to use to suppress wages, and to inflate aggregate GDP growth, as opposed to per capita GDP growth . Properly framed, to make it absolutely clear that Australia will never have an immigration policy based on ethnicity, and that Australia will always honour it’s obligations to accept genuine refugees, I think a policy to reduce immigration would be hugely popular.

  12. nath needs re-educating in the rules of government formation.

    1. Government is formed in the Lower House.
    2. The Greens will only ever have 1 MP in the Lower House.
    3. The Greens will not hold the Balance of Power because there is only one Greens MP in the Lower House but there is more than one Independent.
    4. Ergo, the one Greens MP in the Lower House is essentially irrelevant to any Minority Government or Balance of Power calculation for Labor in the Lower House. Or, as equally relevant as any other Cross Bench MP in the Lower House.
    5. However, if The Greens in the Senate want to throw a tantrum and threaten to not co-operate with the duly elected government of the day, should it be Labor, then be that on their heads. They will thus be seen as the spoilers they would so obviously be.

    And that is the last comment I am going to make about El Distracto’s fever dreams of Greens’ political potency. I’ve wasted enough of my precious time on nath already.

  13. If there is a hung Parliament after the next election, I doubt very much whether Labor would enter into a formal confidence agreement with the Greens.

    In favour of an agreement would be the opportunity to govern (provided the agreement stands).

    On the other hand, there are significant reasons why Labor would be much better off not entering into an agreement.

    First, the Greens only chance of serious influence is if Labor is in power (when the only other option is the Coalition), whether or not there is an agreement. Shorter version is that the Greens have nowhere to go.

    Secondly, by resolutely NOT doing deals with the Greens, Labor will avoid being painted as a creature of the Greens Party and implementing their ‘extremist’ policies.

    Finally, if a stable minority government cannot be formed by Labor (assuming the Liberals can’t get one with the P1 teal independents) we simply go back to the polls. It would be a gamble for Labor, of course, but historically no Government since WW2 has not won a second term. The public responds to the argument to ‘give them a chance’. It would also respond favourably (other than Greens voters) to Labor’s demonstration of independence from Greens ‘woke’ issues and ‘identity politics’.

    As our resident S@#thead put it, Labor front benchers would do a lot to get their seats on the Ministerial benches but strategically, those seats would be more firmly entrenched if Labor is seen to not be selling out.

    PS, the words in ” above are how the Greens Party is sold to the public. I know a few here agree, but not me. Unfortunately, a civil discussion of policy alternatives has not been available for at least a decade and believing otherwise is a one way ticket to powerlessness.

  14. Immigration levels to Australia have been set to maximise amenity to the current ruling classes

    Research has shown that immigration
    in the 1950s improved amenity of those already in australia as migrants took the worst jobs and every one moved up. The migrants were coming from war torn, socially dislocated Europe,

    since the 1990s migrants have to be educated so they take higher paid jobs, competing with existing population

    I don’t think Australia has the water resources to support 50,000,000 people without falling living standards, especially as we are doing nothing to mitigate the effects of global warming on our continent. I don’t think we could feed ourselves


  15. DisplayNamesays:
    Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:20 am
    It’s probable that, in the event of a minority government, the only thing that Labor will ask the Greens is whether they will guarantee supply/confidence for a minority Labor government. In that case, everything else after that can be dealt with on a case by case basis.

    If the Greens don’t like that, then they can always support a minority Coalition government.

    This.

  16. While the Greens may be in a position to bargain on individual bits of legislation, they hold no cards when it comes to forming a government (e.g. “power sharing arrangements”). They can’t support a minority Coalition government, that would be the end of them.

    Also, I don’t know why the Greens think its smart to so openly display their thirst for power by talking about “power sharing” before an election. Obviously pollies in the majors are no less power hungry (probably more :P) but they’re cunning enough to refrain from such naked displays of greed.

    Ambition for policy (a vision for Australia) is one thing, naked ambition for power itself is quite another. The Greens don’t seem to realise just how they come across when they use that kind of language before an election (especially months or years before).

    It really is not wise to so publicly count your chickens before they hatch. Before an election, it should be sufficient to say that they will work for good environmental outcomes. They can talk about power sharing after the election, if it so happens the numbers fall their way.

  17. nath says:
    Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 10:33 am

    Quoll says:
    Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 10:30 am

    Changing subjects like they are changing nappies.

  18. Parramatta Moderate @ #113 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 11:25 am

    Hello Steve777-great post re the issues around immigration, I think you’ve covered pretty much all the issues, except maybe the impact of immigration on resource depletion.

    Yes, I agree, and I would also like to see this issue debated seriously. We should not simply return to the migration Ponzi scheme we used in the past to increase our own wealth at the expense of others.

    Australia pillages well educated migrants from countries that desperately need them. In fact, we often used to “double dip” – i.e. we would educate people here at the expense of their home countries, and then cherry-pick the ones we wanted to keep as migrants, denying their home countries the benefit of educating them in the first place.

    Australia’s migration policies are at best ‘selfish’, and at worst ‘predatory’.


  19. nathsays:
    Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:24 am
    Also, any Labor government needs Greens Senators to pass anything that the Coalition doesn’t agree with. All part of the Greens master plan to squeeze Labor by the balls before doing them in and replacing them.

    I am so scared. A person who professes to be the supporter of Albanese (nee friend) and never critcises Morrison is forcing me to vote for LNP with his argument.

  20. BK @ #62 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 7:07 am

    Am I correct in thinking that the new religious freedom bill would, in looking to prevent discrimination, confer the right for religious bodies to actually discriminate?

    The problem here is that they think it is right that the discrimination they are free to practice in their houses of worship should apply to areas of their business that interact with the general society.

  21. As an addendum, it is absurdly annoying to see the Labor Greens Coalition in the ACT trotted out as some sort of template. The political conditions here in the ACT are unique.

    For starters, it is by far the most voluntarily double vaccinated jurisdiction in Australia. It has only a couple of times ever elected a Liberal HoR member and the Liberal senator struggles to get past the 33% vote needed to get up into the Senatorial position.

    At this point in time, despite the Labor government being very long in the tooth, we have not been able to stomach electing a Liberal government. That might change next time round with the Liberal leader now more in tune with ALP voters than her predecessors have been for some time.

  22. Of course the Greens should offer confidence and supply to a minority Labor govt – on condition that the electoral system is changed to proportional representation in 2025.


  23. Parramatta Moderatesays:
    Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:25 am
    Hello Steve777-great post re the issues around immigration, I think you’ve covered pretty much all the issues, except maybe the impact of immigration on resource depletion. I don’t know what exactly the right level of immigration is, but I’m sure it’s lower than the pre-Covid level. It shouldn’t be a tool to provide a pool of desperate low-skilled labour for the business community to use to suppress wages, and to inflate aggregate GDP growth, as opposed to per capita GDP growth .

    Michael Pascoe tells us why the GDP is almost a fetish and how it has a narrow business focus.
    https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/11/24/michael-pascoe-gdp/

    Pascoe: “GDP is the Golden Calf – it must be worshipped and offered appropriate sacrifices as growing the Golden Calf is the meaning of life.

    Or so some commentary and much lobbying would have you believe.”

  24. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:16 am

    Good on Boer: volunteering up our athlete’s once in a lifetime opportunity to compete at the Olympics for a bit of neo-con gesture politics.

    Get back to me when we decide to not participate with FIFA football competition s least we risk coming into contact with folk who lack our refined petite bourgeois sensibilities. Maybe boycotting the Qatar World Cup would be a good start.

    After that perhaps we can declare Daniel Ricciardo as a war criminal for participating in next weeks Saudi Arabian Grand Prix.

    I for one am dissatisfied with the outcome of French nuclear testing in the 1990s and the egregious sinking of the Rainbow Warrior, so clearly: Paris 2024 is verboten (sorry kiddies for devoting a decade of your life to pursuing the dream, but surely you understand).
    ————————————
    The false equivalence of Rainbow Warrior with the Uigher Genocide and with the total deprivation of human rights on over a billion people is right up there with your more fatuous efforts, A-E.

    You should be able to do bit better than that, surely?

    BTW, the Comrades are right on board with you on the Il Silencio routine – except when it suits them to do the reverse. They will use the Winter Olympics to legitimize genocide. They have already started. Perhaps you could save up some personal extollings for February?

  25. A critical issue with migration is that migrants into Australia have the right to expect the same per capita emissions as every other Australian.

  26. Lars Von Trier says:
    Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:40 am

    Of course the Greens should offer confidence and supply to a minority Labor govt – on condition that the electoral system is changed to proportional representation in 2025.
    ___________________
    An excellent suggestion. As part of the agreement the Labor leadership must also sit for yearly photographs with past and present Greens leaders and use these photos in Christmas cards mailed to ALP members.

  27. ‘Also, any Labor government needs Greens Senators to pass anything that the Coalition doesn’t agree with. All part of the Greens master plan to squeeze Labor by the balls before doing them in and replacing them.’

    Greens will never replace Labor. They will never appeal to voters in the outer surburbs and inner regions.

    Lets be realistic Nath. They have one seat in the House of reps and they have remained on that for the last three elections. If Greens have a chance replacing Labor. Then KAP and UAP have a chance replacing the coalition.

    Actually you are right though about legislation though. Greens have the chance to pass, block, and amend legislation with 10% of the vote. In that sense the senate is quite undemocratic.

  28. Politcal Nightwatchman says:
    Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:51 am

    Greens will never replace Labor. They will never appeal to voters in the outer surburbs and inner regions.
    ___________
    It’s a long process. First there is the March Through the Inner Suburbs. This is in progress. Second phase is making Labor the party of dysfunction. This will not take much effort. Once the Labor party is consigned to the outer suburbs they will drift even more so to the Right. What’s Left of the Labor party will join the Greens, including some unions.

    This was all worked out in a meeting at Menzies House between Abbott and Bob Brown years ago.

  29. More shark jumping records from the Boer:

    “the total deprivation of human rights on over a billion people is …”

    I’m pretty sure that the vast majority of China’s citizens simply do not see their rights as being subject to to “total deprivation”. I’m pretty sure that well over a billion of its citizens view the CCP as being responsible for dragging them out of feudalism and into the modern world and they are very proud of their country. If you were to focus on the minorities who have been caught in the cogs of the ChiComm machine … you’d have more credibility: I’d probably even agree.

    You accuse me of “false equivalence” when you curate out the most serious points I made, and rather chose to focus on my obvious piss-take (which actually raises a pertinent issue IMO, ie. where should sporting boycotts start and end).

    It kinda makes you look stupid … on par with say … Eric Abetz.

    And finally, speaking of jumping the shark, just like your new hero – Sontaran Dutton – you are out past the boundaries of the actual ‘debate’. As I understand it, what Biden is actually proposing is a diplomatic boycott – and not sporting one. Frankly I say ‘good’: not necessarily because the ChiComms deserve extra White Man condemnation for doing the exact stuff that our allies do (start with the Middle East again (saudis, Bahrain, Qatar, Israel, Egypt to name a few ‘gems’) and then expand you mind even further to take into account various other puppet regimes Uncle Sam has nursed to its teat over the years) but the diplomatic and sporting tsars smoozing at the big Sports Carnivals is truly sick making: less of THAT, more of the athletes please.

  30. If Barnaby is not frequently inebriated in QT, he is suffering from some malady which is in urgent need of diagnosis, for the sake of his future health.

  31. The other problem is that the Greens don’t seem to realise that voters can vote for other parties, and then take personal action to assist the environment on their own. People have an out when it comes to rationalising their vote, in the form of buying EVs, or solar panels, or whatever. Though it’s likely that individual action will be significantly less effective (maybe ineffective or even counterproductive :P).

    Environmental action doesn’t take place in parliament. A vote is not the same as acting, and not voting is not the same as not acting.

    The challenge is to convince people that coordinated action (requiring the government) is necessary, not any action at all. Otherwise people will vote for the Coalition and then salve their conscience by recycling or something :P.

    For example, the point of pricing carbon is essentially to roll information on the environmental cost into the price of a product, so that its accounted for when people weigh up the prices of different products. An alternative might be to ask indviduals to trace the provenance of everything they buy and calculate the environmental cost by themselves. Even if we have the time, who’s capable of that? Most of the information necessary for such a calculation is inaccessible.

    (So much for ScoMo’s “good choices”. Good choices require good information.)

  32. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:58 am

    More shark jumping records from the Boer:

    Indeed, Boer doesn’t know fuck all about China.

    Just another racist git.

  33. Q: If Barnaby is not frequently inebriated in QT, he is suffering from some malady which is in urgent need of diagnosis, for the sake of his future health.

    And the mental health of his latest partner and chldren…

  34. Lars Von Trier

    At this stage in politics no federal election has been called

    There is a 25% chance that another federal Liberal Party leader may get the chance to go and advise the Governor General of the date for the federal Election

  35. This Statement of Belief bizzo.
    Does this mean that any crazy statement, such as “I believe that Dan Andrews is the Devil’s Spawn and should be hunted down and killed,” is considered legit and if it encourages followers is just accepted as “freedom of belief”? That’s virtually what we have already with QAnon.

  36. Australia has listed white supremacist group The Base as a terrorist organisation, making it a criminal offence to be a member.

    Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews described The Base as “a violent, racist and neo-Nazi organisation” known to be planning attacks in several nations.

    The entirety of Hezbollah — a Shia Islamist militant group based in Lebanon but active abroad — will also be listed as a terrorist organisation.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-24/neo-nazi-group-base-hezbollah-terrorist-listing/100646300

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