The latest monthly Resolve Strategic federal poll for the Age/Herald marks a return to this series’ lean to the Coalition relative to other pollsters, with a two-point increase in their primary vote to 39% and a corresponding drop in Labor’s to 32%. The Greens, One Nation and other parties are steady at 11%, 3% and 5% respectively, with the low collective major party vote reflected in a likewise steady 9% for the pollster’s “independents” measure. The latter is a contentious feature of the poll, as it is unclear how or if the pollster deals with uncertainty as to where independents might run, as nothing is publicly known about how its questionnaire is structured.
Resolve Strategic doesn’t provide two-party preferred numbers, but I estimate a 51-49 break in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred based on 2019 preference flows, reversing the result from last month. Breakdowns for the large states suggest the Coalition leads 53-47 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 last time, and a swing of a bit over 1% in their favour compared with 2019; Labor leads 53-47 in Victoria, little changed on either the last poll or the 2019 election; and the Coalition leads 56-44 in Queensland, compared with 51-49 last time, for a swing to Labor of about 2.5%. Despite the voting intention numbers, the poll finds Scott Morrison has taken a solid hit on his personal ratings, consistent with the finding of other polls over the past month, with his approval rating down seven points to 40% and disapproval up to 49%. Anthony Albanese is respectively up one to 31% and four to 45%, and he has narrowed his deficit on preferred prime minister from to 44-26 to 40-29.
Full results from the poll, which was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606, can be viewed here. Further results from the poll concerning the economic outlook (most expect it to improve) and immigration (most believe there should be less of it than pre-pandemic) can be viewed here. The pollster’s bi-monthly New South Wales state voting intention result will presumably be along this evening.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which now comes with a flash new display, though I personally will miss the PDF that brought it all together in one easily stored file. This release features neither the monthly leadership ratings nor the quarterly dump of voting intention numbers. What it does include is the regular question on COVID-19 response by the federal government, whose good rating is down three to 45% with poor steady on 29%, and the state governments, with New South Wales’ good rating steady on 57%, Victoria’s down six to 50% and Queensland’s down two to 60%.
A question on best party to manage the economy does not follow the usual form for this issue in favouring the Coalition: instead, Labor and Liberal are tied on 34%. Furthermore, Labor leads 40-29 as the better party to “ensure the economy works in the interests of everyday Australians”, and 37-23 as best party to manage household expenses. Perhaps relatedly, fully 62% wanted the government to play a more active role in managing the economy, with only 16% wanting it to be less active and 22% thinking it has it about right. Further questions relate to government help for businesses to recover from the pandemic (respondents overwhelmingly in favour), an emissions target for 2030 (respondents believe it should be more ambitious) and freedom of speech (respondents actually aren’t all that keen on it). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1095.
Finally, Sky News has a curious set of figures from a poll of 4010 respondents conducted way back in September by unheralded outfit Ergo Strategy, described as “News Corp’s final exclusive survey”, though I can’t find any record of anything earlier. No voting intention figures are provided, but we are told how voters for each party in 2019 intend to vote this time. Eleven per cent of Coalition voters said they were switching to Labor compared with 5% vice-versa, suggesting a shift of around 3% in favour of Labor.
BB
Most of the articles are of the “What Morrison has to do to win is…” variety.
________________________________
And I bet none of those articles are demanding detailed policies from Morrison and the Coalition for the supposed ‘contest of ideas’.
UK Cartoons:
Some cartoons from Cartoon Movement – Covid is baaaaack! I bigly recommend a visit to https://cartoonmovement.com/
Steve 777, they would at least be better at making sure their business mates turned a few bob in the process…lots of private contracting and so on.
“Any better than they have proved in managing, say, a bushfire emergency, a pandemic vaccine rollout, quarantine or aged care?”
Boerwar
And or a xenophobic or ‘white supremacist’ , go to terms for a number of peasants
Not sure what Ana P was thinking with her plan to charge $165 for a Covid test for incoming travellers . Would have thought just the basic (negative) test at a public testing facility would have been ok from the get go. Seems to be sorted now but was a little messy for a while.
“And I bet none of those articles are demanding detailed policies from Morrison and the Coalition for the supposed ‘contest of ideas’.”
And I bet that none of them will ask “where’s the money coming from?” when election sweeteners are revealed.
In any event, just focusing on this: “Eleven per cent of Coalition voters said they were switching to Labor compared with 5% vice-versa”…. 5% of ALP voters switching to the Coalition?… Worthy of some further study, after three federal elections I would suggest to get the aid of a psychiatrist to understand how the mind of those voters works…
—————
There’s some contra-trend movement of voters between the parties at every election. When political subjects come up incidentally in conversation with someone who’s not politically engaged it’s pretty obvious that a very large and idiosyncratic range of perceptions and issues can inform voter choice, including some that more engaged citizens would regard as peripheral.
In this particular instance, based on personal experience – and other posters have mentioned similar experience- I’d suspect that the small cohort of previously ALP voters who are planning to vote for the LNP includes some who have jumped on the freedom/anti lockdown/anti vax mandate bandwagon.
And of course the shambolic vax rollout harmed Scomo for many months, and while as expected, some of the immediacy has gone out of that issue as vax rates rise, it’s not gone away entirely:
“GPs have blasted the federal government over its coronavirus vaccine rollout, saying a delay in rolling out targeted information campaigns left a “vacuum” for anti-vaxxers to spread their dangerous message.
They say health authorities lost the faith and trust of the Australian public through confusing changes to vaccine eligibility, and doctors had borne the brunt of the frustration.”
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/we-lost-the-trust-and-faith-gps-blast-government-s-vaccine-rollout-20211123-p59bcm.html
”
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 9:23 am
…………..
………..
I still think Albo is about a 30% chance of winning atm.
”
Good onya for resolving to give Albo 30% chance of winning after release of Resolve poll. That too after you said yesterday evening you wouldn’t say anymore about Resolve pill. You are such an impartial commentator. 🙂
A mate put me onto this mornings Coorey interview with Fran. I think he likes to get angry and wants me to share in it. So…. I will share it with you.
Apparently, according to the esteemed stenographer, Morrison hasnt done much in Parliament since becoming PM because, firstly, he came in on very short notice and secondly because of the pandemic so he has been ‘busy’ with that (usual Coorey level FMD). But rest assured, Coorey tells us that he has been told that the LNP will do lots of stuff if re-elected (Coorey dials the FMD to new levels).
Why does anyone get Coorey on anymore? He has no cred. He is the LNPs media spokesperson and now without the lipstick.
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/spectre-disunity-scott-morrison-politics-with-phil-coorey/13645730
Steve777 @ #56 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 9:57 am
And Labor’s stock response should be…’the same place Morrison and Frydenberg’s billions of dollars of free money to corporates came from’
Am I correct in thinking that the new religious freedom bill would, in looking to prevent discrimination, confer the right for religious bodies to actually discriminate?
Tedious bores seems as straight and honest talking as Smoko
https://greens.org.au/policies/population
The Australian Greens believe that:
The current level of population, population growth and the way we produce and consume are outstripping environmental capacity. Australia must contribute to achieving a globally sustainable population and encourage and support other nations to do the same.
Our environmental impact and ecological footprint is not determined by population numbers alone, but by a range of factors including per capita consumption patterns and levels, distribution of resources, agricultural practices for domestic consumption and export, levels and types of industrial activity and production, urban design and transport options.
Australia’s population policy should be determined by its commitment to:
ecological sustainability;
global and domestic social justice and equity, including women’s rights;
intergenerational equity;
multiculturalism;
international human rights obligations; and
decent wages and conditions for all workers.
Population policy should not be primarily driven by economic goals or to counter the effects of an ageing population.
Population policy should consider the geographical distribution of human settlements in addition to population size at the national level.
Australia has an obligation to accept humanitarian migration, including that resulting from climate change.
The continuing rapid increase in the human population is drastically affecting national and international outcomes in environmental sustainability, human health and welfare, and other areas. Current rates of resource use are not sustainable and are compounded by inequitable distribution of wealth and power.
I am looking forward to the Statements of Belief coming from every atheist out there.
Bushfire Bill @ #49 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 9:34 am
‘when it was Labor that sought and commenced it’
As I’ve said many times, it is incumbent on Labor to provide the historical context for many issues where it is the ALP who has initiated or created something.
History.
Little history lessons woven in to every speech/response/comment
The average punter doesn’t know any of this stuff….and neither do many journalists.
Via the Guardian
Earlier on the parliament lawns, Greens senators accepted a petition signed by more than 110,000 people who oppose public funds being used to open gas fracking in the Beetaloo Basin.
It was part of an event put together by GetUp, 350, Seed Mob and Lock The Gate.
Lidia Thorpe spoke:
We see these mining companies and Parliament acknowledging Country, but you can’t acknowledge Country and stab us in the back at the same time. You can’t acknowledge Country and destroy our land, our water, our air, and our people.
…We’ve got a really important vote this afternoon to stop $50 million of public money being given to private companies to wreck the land and poison the water of our First Nations Territorians. We’ve managed to get all of the Crossbench to say they’ll vote with the Greens. We just need one of the big parties to stand on the side of First Nations Owners, of protecting our climate, of clean water, and a liveable future for us all. The decision for Labor today is: will they stop $50 million of public money being wasted to wreck the climate and poison the waters of this sacred land?”
Labor has sided with the government on previous votes on this issue.
test
test post without link …
Despite more predicted closures, coal is still set to be with us till past 2050, let alone 2030 or 2040 …
Overwhelming indeed – 9 out of 10 economists think a carbon tax is the best option, with only 1 in 10 thinking that government backing for carbon reduction technology was a good idea … but if you listen carefully, you might hear the faint election cry from Labor … “Technology not Taxes” … or at least you would if Labor weren’t too petrified to say anything 🙁
Think for yourself for a change. Vote Independent.
Test post with link for previous post ..
https://theconversation.com/coal-plants-are-closing-faster-than-expected-governments-can-keep-the-exit-orderly-172150
My previous post wouldn’t post with the link included, but both the post itself and the link post ok separately.
Odd.
And just as I head out
There is a push by “experts” quoted in media that vaccination status be not now relevant with over 90% double vaccinated
So pandering to the 10% minority
The lead question from this push from me is, why did I get double vaccinated in the first place?
Why didn’t I just sit back and await 70% or 80% or 90% of the rest of the population getting vaccinated?
Me then engaging with the rest of the population without restriction
And given what is playing out elsewhere globally , and the importance of booster vaccination, why wouldn’t I just sit back and await 70%, 80%, 90% or whatever of others getting a booster vaccination?
Giving credibility to those who march in our streets – and who disgust me
Why should I be a lifter and not a leaner?
Which just shows how conflicted this Federal Government is
When all you can do is jump from one slogan to another your time is up
Lynchpin @ #41 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 9:10 am
Hence ‘readers’….as I’m not really sure. I know they get the rag for the pictures of sporty types but quite possibly have the written bits read to them.
I think that a debate on the appropriate level of immigration levels for Australia is in order. It is certainly not racist, although racists would be happy to get on board such a debate.
What is Australia’s immigration program “for”?
* Is to to bulk up to be ready to face any threat – that’s what people thought at the start (1950s).
* It’s not to fill the “boundless plains”. The colonisation project is long since finished. No one wants to move there. Most migrants settle in Sydney or Melbourne, most of the remainder in the other capitals.
* Is it to counter the aging of the population, to maintain a population profile that ensure that the working age population is big enough to support the rest? In part, although our immigration levels are well in excess of what that would require. Anyway, the Government doesn’t care about “leaners”.
* One effect of high immigration is to keep housing prices high and ever-escalating. A number of interests, which overwhelmingly support the Coalition, are very happy with that.
* Immigration does address genuine labour shortages when / where these occur.
* Since governments abandoned full employment in the late 1970s, unemployment has been used to suppress inflation. A pool of unemployed with a floor of about 5% helps suppress wage growth and worker bargaining power. That suits the business community just fine.
* The business community also doesn’t want to bother with training. Much easier to import workers when it can’t be outsourced to Unis / Tafe.
* Australia does have international obligations under the refugee convention and a refugee program, but it is quite a small component of the overall program and anyway the current Government is basically uninterested in refugees except as a prop for their “tough on borders” stance.
Q: And I bet none of those articles are demanding detailed policies from Morrison and the Coalition for the supposed ‘contest of ideas’.
Or a concrete list of DELIVERED achievements in their 8 year term…..to be built upon.
”
TPOFsays:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 9:38 am
BB
Most of the articles are of the “What Morrison has to do to win is…” variety.
________________________________
And I bet none of those articles are demanding detailed policies from Morrison and the Coalition for the supposed ‘contest of ideas’.
”
Ah,
1. those were the days when journalists can criticise the Federal government unhindered by the shackles of their bosses and knowing fully well that the Federal Labor government would not retaliate and lobotomise them.
2. Those were the days when so many reputations were built and awarded (those annual journalistic awards for ‘fearless’ journalism) to ordinary people for ‘fearless’ journalism of criticising Labor government.
3. Those were the days when ABC can start their bulletin with “Opposition leader Tony Abbott said blah blah blah….”.
The way the msm do their job makes a “contest of ideas” impossible.
They may do an ok job when it comes to basic reporting (sometimes), but for anything that requires critical thinking they’re not much better than social media.
Victorian state owned forestry destroying forests and breaking the states own rules
So the Vic govt now changes the rules after completely ignoring the breaches that have been going on for years
‘LAWLESS’ LOGGERS
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-24/hi-res-elevation-data-pinpoints-outlaw-logging-in-forests/100626640
Changing the law ‘so VicForests can survive’
Professor Lindenmayer says he thinks illegal logging has become VicForests’ business model and the regulator is facilitating it.
“There are some fundamental reasons why we’re seeing such widespread breaching of forest laws, and that is that VicForests is running out of timber,” he said.
“VicForests would not be able to survive without continuing to log illegally and continuing to log important areas for biodiversity.”
In May this year, the Federal Court found VicForests was breaching the law in a range of ways that endangered threatened animals and plants, as well as the aesthetic value of forests. That case was led by Ms Jacobs.
After that case, conservation groups say both types of activity continued to occur, unchecked by the regulator.
—
And now the government has acted, but not in the way he hoped.
This month, Ms D’Ambrosio changed the legal protections for Victoria’s important water catchments, allowing previous slope limits to be breached for up to 10 per cent of any coupe.
The government said it was “clarifying” the existing law.
A spokesperson for Ms D’Ambrosio said “the 2014 version of the code has caused legal uncertainty and, therefore, it was clarified in the recent code amendment”.
Professor Lindenmayer said government officials are more blunt when they speak to him.
″Senior government officials have told me directly, on more than one occasion, that this is about access to resources [for VicForests]. It’s not about simplifying the code,” he said.
Quoll says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 10:30 am
Victorian state owned forestry destroying forests and breaking the states own rules
So the Vic govt now changes the rules after completely ignoring the breaches that have been going on for years
________________________
I was just reading about this. Very fucking concerning.
The very highly inflated price for land has nothing to do with immigration. It is entirely a function of the discount rate, which is negative, or close to it. Negative interest rates mean (because of the inverse relationship between the price of land and the discount rate) that there is no arithmetic cap on land prices. They should go up and up, until interest rates start to rise.
Additions to the labour force (whether from immigration or the net birth rate) increase our productive capacity and at the margin this will drive real wages up, not down. The fact that workers are concentrated in cities is also a good thing. Cities are more prosperous – offer higher real wages – than rural areas. This is for a good reason: they are more ‘efficient’ than less densely populated locations. Scale. Scale matters. We usually get higher rates of return on investment when scale increases. Investment matters because it co-determines the level of real wages. We need to invest more – in scope, intensity and volume – in ways that increase our human and social capital. This will ensure real wages continue to grow, and the more diverse the social complex the greater will be the returns.
It’s a very good thing that our population has increased significantly faster than its ‘natural rate’ (which could easily have been negative in some years) and that immigrants have been absorbed into urban populations and labour markets.
If governments lift vax mandates now, it’s likely there’ll be lower numbers of people accepting 3rd doses, meaning higher infection rates as immunity from 2nd doses wanes, potential future lockdowns etc. A state government that doesn’t minimise that possibility is asking for trouble down the track.
From BK links
From his lofty towers in Nova Scotia and Scotland author Duncan McClennan has distilled various academic papers on housing policy in Australia and missed the zeitgeist on the ground Australians which are
1. increasing numbers of workers in insecure jobs, don’t earn enough to get a deposit, casualised workers can’t get a mortgage
2. covid has led to high rental vacancy rates ie in Malvern East 1 in 8 rental properties are vacant
3. boomers stay in family home after kids have left because downsizing means leaving the suburb they have lived their adult lives in
He is correct that housing policy is fueling social instability
The failures of Australia’s fragmented and ineffective housing policy are accumulating — governments should take heed or pay a political cost, urges Duncan McClennan.
https://johnmenadue.com/why-housing-emergency-must-shift-australian-politics/
Despite more predicted closures, coal is still set to be with us till past 2050, let alone 2030 or 2040 …
https://theconversation.com/coal-plants-are-closing-faster-than-expected-governments-can-keep-the-exit-orderly-172150
Overwhelming indeed – 9 out of 10 economists think a carbon tax is the best option, with only 1 in 10 thinking that government backing for carbon reduction technology was a good idea … but if you listen carefully, you might hear the faint election cry from Labor … “Technology not Taxes” … or at least you would if Labor weren’t too petrified to say anything 🙁
Think for yourself for a change. Vote Independent.
Quoll says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 10:13 am
Labor has sided with the government on previous votes on this issue.
Yes. Quite so. Labor will not be a Trojan Horse for Green politics/policies/pseudo-policies/polemics/pretensions.
If Labor win next year it will be because they declined to gratify their enemies. Unmistakably, the Greens rank among Labor’s enemies. They will not be indulged. This is particularly the case in relation to climate change and boat people: iconically “Green” topics. Labor will fight neither for/with the Greens on these grounds, which are political no-mans’ land for Labor.
Shoalhaven Independents, how good are they?? LOL
Quoll says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 10:13 am
….
Labor has sided with the government on previous votes on this issue.
And hopefully they will continue to do so.
Australia’s job is to get it’s own economy on order and to start exporting zero carbon energy sources. Australia’s job is not to destroy other economies by refusing to export energy.
The issue is the lack of investment in renewables.
Remarkable.
There is absolutely nothing about Johnson’s behaviour in power that he had not already demonstrated before he gained power. There was no character flaw that he has displayed in power that he had not already demonstrated before he gained power.
And now people profess to be somewhat surprised.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/nov/23/boris-johnson-is-not-unwell-and-has-not-lost-his-grip-says-no-10
AZ
Thank you for the cartoons.
Frednk says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 10:58 am
Quoll says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 10:13 am
….
Labor has sided with the government on previous votes on this issue.
And hopefully they will continue to do so.
Australia’s job is to get it’s own economy on order and to start exporting zero carbon energy sources. Australia’s job is not to destroy other economies by refusing to export energy.
The issue is the lack of investment in renewables.
Exactly.
There is already 1 Greens/Labor government in Australia. Other agreements have been in place whenever the Greens have held BOP. It will happen again.
If the Greens hold the BOP after the Federal Election, the entire Labor frontbench would crawl on their knees to Adam Bandt.
75% of NSW cases today from Sydney
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 10:59 am
Remarkable.
There is absolutely nothing about Johnson’s behaviour in power that he had not already demonstrated before he gained power. There was no character flaw that he has displayed in power that he had not already demonstrated before he gained power.
And now people profess to be somewhat surprised.
Neo-Imperialist longing….the pretentions of the nostalgic ….Les Anglais had a crush on Boris. This was always going to end badly.
It should not take the fate of Peng Shuai to decide attendance at the Beijing/Berlin Olympics.
Genocide and the systematic trashing of human rights are totally out of sync with the ideals of the Olympics.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/23/china-peng-shuai-tennis-player-west
If Labor were to appeal to the Greens to prop them up again, as occurred in 2010, Labor will never win another election ever. The Greens are hemlock for Labor.
Bloos says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:05 am
If Labor were to appeal to the Greens to prop them up again, as occurred in 2010, Labor will never win another election ever. The Greens are hemlock for Labor.
__________
You think Labor frontbenchers are going to miss an opportunity to be Ministers? They will be falling over themselves for a deal.
Boerwar says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:04 am
It should not take the fate of Peng Shuai to decide attendance at the Beijing/Berlin Olympics.
Genocide and the systematic trashing of human rights are totally out of sync with the ideals of the Olympics.
Indeed. Not that it matters to me. I can’t go even if I wanted to. Xi has black-listed me and many others because of opinions expressed about the Uighur.
nath @ #89 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 11:02 am
It will never happen. However, you have just made the best case for electing a majority Labor government. Greens hubris.
C@tmomma says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:07 am
It will never happen. However, you have just made the best case for electing a majority Labor government. Greens hubris.
_______
Of course it will happen again. Whenever the Greens have BOP. History has shown that.
Bandt and the Greens would have to choose whether to support Labor on a case-by-case basis or whether to try to bring Labor down in concert with the LNP. They will attempt the latter. They are Labor-hostile. If Labor should have learned anything from the Rudd-Gillard era, it is to never put their well being in the hands of their enemies. Labor will not parlay with their foes.
Bloos says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:09 am
Labor will not parlay with their foes.
______
You presume to speak for the Labor party on all kinds of issues. The fact is you don’t have a clue what the Labor leadership will do.
Pretty much, BK.