The latest monthly Resolve Strategic federal poll for the Age/Herald marks a return to this series’ lean to the Coalition relative to other pollsters, with a two-point increase in their primary vote to 39% and a corresponding drop in Labor’s to 32%. The Greens, One Nation and other parties are steady at 11%, 3% and 5% respectively, with the low collective major party vote reflected in a likewise steady 9% for the pollster’s “independents” measure. The latter is a contentious feature of the poll, as it is unclear how or if the pollster deals with uncertainty as to where independents might run, as nothing is publicly known about how its questionnaire is structured.
Resolve Strategic doesn’t provide two-party preferred numbers, but I estimate a 51-49 break in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred based on 2019 preference flows, reversing the result from last month. Breakdowns for the large states suggest the Coalition leads 53-47 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 last time, and a swing of a bit over 1% in their favour compared with 2019; Labor leads 53-47 in Victoria, little changed on either the last poll or the 2019 election; and the Coalition leads 56-44 in Queensland, compared with 51-49 last time, for a swing to Labor of about 2.5%. Despite the voting intention numbers, the poll finds Scott Morrison has taken a solid hit on his personal ratings, consistent with the finding of other polls over the past month, with his approval rating down seven points to 40% and disapproval up to 49%. Anthony Albanese is respectively up one to 31% and four to 45%, and he has narrowed his deficit on preferred prime minister from to 44-26 to 40-29.
Full results from the poll, which was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606, can be viewed here. Further results from the poll concerning the economic outlook (most expect it to improve) and immigration (most believe there should be less of it than pre-pandemic) can be viewed here. The pollster’s bi-monthly New South Wales state voting intention result will presumably be along this evening.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which now comes with a flash new display, though I personally will miss the PDF that brought it all together in one easily stored file. This release features neither the monthly leadership ratings nor the quarterly dump of voting intention numbers. What it does include is the regular question on COVID-19 response by the federal government, whose good rating is down three to 45% with poor steady on 29%, and the state governments, with New South Wales’ good rating steady on 57%, Victoria’s down six to 50% and Queensland’s down two to 60%.
A question on best party to manage the economy does not follow the usual form for this issue in favouring the Coalition: instead, Labor and Liberal are tied on 34%. Furthermore, Labor leads 40-29 as the better party to “ensure the economy works in the interests of everyday Australians”, and 37-23 as best party to manage household expenses. Perhaps relatedly, fully 62% wanted the government to play a more active role in managing the economy, with only 16% wanting it to be less active and 22% thinking it has it about right. Further questions relate to government help for businesses to recover from the pandemic (respondents overwhelmingly in favour), an emissions target for 2030 (respondents believe it should be more ambitious) and freedom of speech (respondents actually aren’t all that keen on it). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1095.
Finally, Sky News has a curious set of figures from a poll of 4010 respondents conducted way back in September by unheralded outfit Ergo Strategy, described as “News Corp’s final exclusive survey”, though I can’t find any record of anything earlier. No voting intention figures are provided, but we are told how voters for each party in 2019 intend to vote this time. Eleven per cent of Coalition voters said they were switching to Labor compared with 5% vice-versa, suggesting a shift of around 3% in favour of Labor.
scott – what can you do with a 32% primary, your sort of a major minor party at that level.
You cannot really pretend to be a majority governing party.
Gracefully making way for the future seems the best bet.
It is all there waiting for your best life as a property developer, Itza
https://ashbourne.com.au/?utm_source=Domain&utm_medium=AudX&utm_campaign=Ashbourne&utm_term=Ad2&utm_content=Southern_Highlands
‘Of course the Greens should offer confidence and supply to a minority Labor govt – on condition that the electoral system is changed to proportional representation in 2025.’
The public don’t like minority governments shown by the Gillard government. You would have constant governments hamstrung with crossbenchers grandstanding with demands with a paltry vote to show for it.
Thats why this proposal wouldn’t get widespread support from the public.
Isn’t the translation of Al-Qaeda “the base” as well?
”
nathsays:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:57 am
Politcal Nightwatchman says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:51 am
………………….
…………….
………………….
This was all worked out in a meeting at Menzies House between Abbott and Bob Brown years ago.
”
No wonder you don’t criticise Liberal governments anywhere in Australia let alone Federal LNP government. You are 20% Greens voter, who doesn’t preference ALP
You postings about being Albanese Supporter (nee friend) are just a distraction.
Boer is not a racist Zerlo, so that sort of name calling doesnt help either your cause or mine.
However he is triggered by the ChiComms in a fashion that is completely out of proportion and unwittingly, its exactly those sort of bellicose sentiments that this awful, terrible, no good outfit of pirates pretending to be a government are looking to capitalise on for base political gain: they want a ‘war’ election. For the simply reason that nothing much else seems to be working for them at the moment. How reckless and dangerous is that? How morally vacuous?
But here we are, on bludger we have the likes of C@t and Boer blowing their vuvuzelas as hard as they can: perhaps that is fairly harmless behaviour on a small blog, but IMO it is emblematic of a broader community malaise & one that Sontaran Dutton wishes to exploit and damn the consequences (which are grave as it can be imagined).
PN,
Gillard Government showed two things:
– the perception that a government has broken a core promise is fatal.
– protest voters want their vote to be a protest, not an enabler for the duopoly.
How much safer are youse vaxxed Pubsters ? The numbers seem to be firming.
.
.
Nov 23, 10:46 am
Unvaccinated 9 times more likely to be hospitalized, 14 times more likely to die: CDC
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/coronavirus/?id=81323456#81351742
Australia’s NSW says unvaccinated 16 times more likely to die from COVID-19 November 9, 2021
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-nsw-says-unvaccinated-16-times-more-likely-die-covid-19-2021-11-09/
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 12:09 pm
scott – what can you do with a 32% primary, your sort of a major minor party at that level.
You cannot really pretend to be a majority governing party.
——————–
The federal Liberal party primary vote was under 30% at the 2019 federal election
Why are they claiming to be a majority governing party
The biggest driver of housing shortages in our area is the high number of air bnbs.
One real estate agency had two windows side by side, one listing normal rental properties ($250 a week) and the other air bnbs ($500 a night, and they’re the cheap seats).
The large casual workforce needed can’t live in the region now, full stop. The number of job vacancies has risen by 46%.
Of course, with such good returns on investment, housing prices have risen 30% in the last year. Which puts pressure on the other neighbouring housing markets, as locals wanting buy move further out.
The answer seems to be in restricting the number of air bnbs, but good luck with that.
zoomster
Do Air bnbs have to be licensed? It seems to be a complete free for all.
Do
Lars Von Trier
according to you
Doesnt this mean out of the 2 majority political party’s Labor and Liberal
Labor has more right to be called a majority than the liberal party
2019 federal election
Labor primary vote 33.34%
Liberal Party primary vote 27.99%
No Scott – I am opposed to the 2 party Lib/Lab same/same duopoly.
As the Maoists used to say – bombard the headquarters!
Electoral reform now!
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 12:09 pm
Coalition Party only has larger vote due to monopoly by the Nationals.
On another note , the political system should be renamed to Labor vs Coalition Partys system
Labor is technically against 4 political partys – Liberal , Liberal-National , Country Liberal , National partys
How much safer are youse vaxxed Pubsters ?
You took a wrong turn at the Poll Bludger blog, poroti. 😐
if the 2pp is going to remain the Liberal party , Country Liberal , National party
Should all merged to make it a national LNP as one political Party
No more wasting of taxpayers money for leader/deputy leader of the National party
Zerlo and Earlwood, convenient, but strange bedfellows.
lizzie @ #149 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:06 pm
I’m just hoping that the stupid legislation goes off to a Senate committee for them to pull it to bits.
Ven @ #118 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 11:34 am
Dick Pound : Vice President of the IOC:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Pound
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:58 am
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:58 am
More shark jumping records from the Boer:
“the total deprivation of human rights on over a billion people is …”
I’m pretty sure that the vast majority of China’s citizens simply do not see their rights as being subject to to “total deprivation”.
——————————–
When they murder their own journalists, exercise draconian social media control, close down newspapers, disappear inconvenient people and send hundreds of thousands of Uighers into concentration camps while also using city policy to bash up individuals who speak out of turn or who protest you must have telepathic powers with direct comms to a billion people. Jump that shark, mate.
=================================
I’m pretty sure that well over a billion of its citizens view the CCP as being responsible for dragging them out of feudalism and into the modern world and they are very proud of their country. If you were to focus on the minorities who have been caught in the cogs of the ChiComm machine … you’d have more credibility: I’d probably even agree.
——————————–
I agree that the economic achievements of the CPC would be well regarded.
Genocide does create a bit of ill feeling. We agree about that.
=====================================================
You accuse me of “false equivalence” when you curate out the most serious points I made, and rather chose to focus on my obvious piss-take (which actually raises a pertinent issue IMO, ie. where should sporting boycotts start and end).
———————
Well, any state that is actively engaged in genocide should obviously be out. I’m not sure what you think about that as a threshold. Apart from that I would be more than happy for Australia to give up on the Olympics altogether and to spend the hundreds of millions in community level sports participation.
==============================================
It kinda makes you look stupid … on par with say … Eric Abetz.
—————————-
Personal abuse.
=============================================
And finally, speaking of jumping the shark, just like your new hero – Sontaran Dutton – you are out past the boundaries of the actual ‘debate’. As I understand it, what Biden is actually proposing is a diplomatic boycott – and not sporting one. Frankly I say ‘good’: not necessarily because the ChiComms deserve extra White Man condemnation for doing the exact stuff that our allies do (start with the Middle East again (saudis, Bahrain, Qatar, Israel, Egypt to name a few ‘gems’) and then expand you mind even further to take into account various other puppet regimes Uncle Sam has nursed to its teat over the years) but the diplomatic and sporting tsars smoozing at the big Sports Carnivals is truly sick making: less of THAT, more of the athletes please.
————————————————-
Verballing. I have made my judgement about Dutton perfectly obvious.
Biden is entitled to speak his views. So is Xi. Why not quote Xi on the topic? Actually much, much more interesting!
I hold zero support for US propping up dictatorial regimes.
===========================================
You’re not traveling too well here, A-E. Your usual mix of personal abuse and shonky logic is about average for you.
Because A-E routinely verbals and abuses, in summary form, my views:
1. Countries should boycott Olympics where there is a genocide in progress.
2. Countries should boycott Olympics where: there is no freedom of expression, where the MSM is routinely jailed or murdered, where censorship is complete, and where a genocide is in progress. The rationale is quite simple. Those countries will try to transmute hosting the olympics into regime legitmization. This is already happening in China with respect to the Winter Olympics.
3. Australia should be a heavily armed neutral country. It should source weapons from a variety of sources.
4. US defence installations including the spy centres, forward based equipment and permanent basing of marines should be stopped immediately.
5. I am 100% against the public comments made by Dutton.
zoomster says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 12:21 pm
The biggest driver of housing shortages in our area is the high number of air bnbs.
———————-
I suspect it may be the same throughout regional Vic. I have family on Phillip Island – a huge slab of the accommodation on which is holiday rental/Air BNBs at the best of times. Apparently permanent rental is as scarce as hens’ teeth – not only on the island but in the surrounding parts of Sth Gippsland. The towns up the Bass Highway towards Melbourne are already increasingly becoming commuter towns for Melburnians. Getting staff for businesses in the area is extremely difficult as prospective employees can’t find a place to live.
lizzie @ #163 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:23 pm
In some places. But mostly no.
We have a house which we have listed with Airbnb for 11 years.
There was a bit of council argy bargy recently where hosts were required to register.
But as with any rental property they’re supposed to comply with dwelling rules and regs.
It is a bit of a free for all.
You gotta love that can do capitalism.
mundo @ #NaN Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:42 pm
Having said that, if council wants to whack me with a license fee I’m happy to pay.
Thanks Mundo
max @ #NaN Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:42 pm
Gee, maybe it would be a good idea for the government to mandate an appropriate use of private property?
C@tmomma @ #171 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 9:36 am
Zerlo demonstrates irrational unquestioned support for China, so that’s hardly the case as AE does none of this.
As for strange bedfellows; you, Boer and the Potato fit the bill pretty well.
Your white man’s dictates to super powers will simply increase the likelihood of war, Boer. Congratulations. You might think it abuse, but I think you and Abetz are two peas in a pod.
zoomster @ #162 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:21 pm
A bit odd. Why would a real estate agent be listing properties listed already on airbnb?
What’s in it for the agent.
MFD.
The notion that those concerned about China’s internal and external behaviours shouldn’t say anything lest it ‘enable’ Dutton is a freakishly absurd call for self-consorship.
The most incompetent and corrupt government since Federation needs absolutely nothing to start with the old black gangs in Melbourne routine.
In the old Territory you could tell when an election was in the air just by watching the right crank up the Indigenous bashing routines.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 12:47 pm
Your white man’s dictates to super powers will simply increase the likelihood of war, Boer. Congratulations. You might think it abuse, but I think you and Abetz are two peas in a pod.
———————————–
Rank personal abuse. Deflection.
Refusing to facilitate someone else’s genocide is not a ‘white man’s dictates’.
ItzaDream @ #130 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 11:44 am
Could I apply for the position of “only straight in the village” please?
“Zerlo and Earlwood, convenient, but strange bedfellows.”
Comprehension problems again, C@t: all that red mist is to blame.
poroti
The way I see those numbers is this..
About one in 100,000 parachute jumps ends in death.
My odds of dying from covid if unvaccinated are about 1 in 100 – not good
My odds of dying from covid if vaccinated are about 1 in 1000 – still far, far more dangerous than throwing myself out of a plane.
So whilst its reassuring to know that vaccines do indeed reduce your risk of death if you catch it, its far, far better if we seek to maximise their ability to reduce the rate of infection – and not just protection after the fact.
Forcing people to wait 6 months for a booster is a bad idea and we’re going to find out the hard way.
zoomster @ #162 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:21 pm
Or restricting the number of times a house can be resold.
Or building more social housing.
For the record I don’t equate A-E’s commentary with that of Zerlo.
Just as I don’t equate mine with that of C@t.
rhwombat
So long as the gay church next door can discriminate against you 🙂
mundo
The only good policy setting is for the state to build enough housing to ensure that total supply more or less equates with demand.
Some insight into the sausage making inside the Vic ALP post Somyurek. From the report it seems that Dan Andrews is spending some of his own political capital to protect Pakula and Symes – who appear to me to have performed reasonably as Ministers.
“ Two senior Andrews government ministers look likely to have their political careers extended amid a round of preselection fights that threaten to deepen Victorian Labor’s internal divisions.
The moves to protect Attorney-General Jaclyn Symes and Trade Minister Martin Pakula come amid a looming stoush over the endorsements of MPs aligned with former powerbroker Adem Somyurek, who all intend to run again, but may face resistance from the forces that have taken control of the party.“
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/labor-ministers-saved-as-fight-over-somyurek-aligned-mps-looms-20211123-p59bf6.html
zoomster
I recall looking for an airbnb in London for the 2012 Olympics…
There were people renting out their cars! (and the odd boatshed)
Allowing our winter olympians to travel to china to slide down a mountain, or skate in circles, is not ‘facilitating a genocide’ Boer.
Anymore than allowing Dani Ricciardo to travel to Saudi Arabia, or the Socceroos to continue their World Cup qualifying campaign, and if successful, travel to Qatar.
If you want to stop parasites like John Coates or the federal sports minister from travelling to Beijing for the festivities, then well … ok.
Scott @ #148 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:05 pm
I’d say there’s no chance.
I’d say Albo’s got a better chance of actually winning than Scotty being knocked off.
The Federal Court is set to award Defence Minister Peter Dutton $35,000 in damages over a defamatory tweet posted by a refugee advocate.
Mr Dutton filed Federal Court proceedings in April against Shane Bazzi over a tweet on February 25 this year labelling him a “rape apologist”.
Today, Federal Court Justice Richard White found the tweet defamed Mr Dutton and rejected Mr Bazzi’s defences of honest opinion and fair comment.
Observer:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 10:17 am
[‘The lead question from this push from me is, why did I get double vaccinated in the first place?
Why didn’t I just sit back and await 70% or 80% or 90% of the rest of the population getting vaccinated?’]
Fair point and the problem is what do you do with the 10% or so who won’t get vaccinated? They can be banned from work, play, entering certain venues – perhaps that’s sufficient punishment?
The circa 90% who will be soon double vaxxed (currently 85.5% nationally, over 16) have behaved responsibly but they’ll always be a noisy minority who demur based on real or concocted concerns. And I don’t think Austria’s attempted solution of fining recalcitrants 3,600 euros ($4,000) will work. What happens if they don’t pay the fine – gaol them?
“Dick Pound”
Is that where all the stray penises go?
I’m no fan of Air BnB, but … these kinds of issues should be relatively temporary. AirBnB makes no sense if there isn’t the demand for people to stay in short term accommodation, so it’s really just reflecting a demand for this kind of vacation stay, which should be a good thing for the local economy. As far as pricing out longer term renters, in theory the higher housing/rental prices should correct over time because it should trigger building activity to meet that demand – and it won’t all be turned into more AirBnB.
I think there are definitely issues with how this short-term stuff fits into traditional apartment/local government control – people should be able to have more say on how/where these short term accommodation sites are located/regulated/compensated, but the bigger accommodation supply/demand stuff I would think is better left alone (or fix the most egregious of the existing taxation distortions) – except for a bigger role for government to fund and oversee lower end public/social housing, which clearly should not be AirBnB-able.
Bloossays:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:09 am
Bandt and the Greens would have to choose whether to support Labor on a case-by-case basis or whether to try to bring Labor down in concert with the LNP. They will attempt the latter. They are Labor-hostile.
__________________________________________________________
No! The Greens will not attempt to bring down a Labor government because they would instantly alienate their own voter base. Greens’ supporters preference Labor 85-90%. The Greens would face the same fate that independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott faced at the hands of their Coalition-leaning constituents, after they sided with Labor.