The latest monthly Resolve Strategic federal poll for the Age/Herald marks a return to this series’ lean to the Coalition relative to other pollsters, with a two-point increase in their primary vote to 39% and a corresponding drop in Labor’s to 32%. The Greens, One Nation and other parties are steady at 11%, 3% and 5% respectively, with the low collective major party vote reflected in a likewise steady 9% for the pollster’s “independents” measure. The latter is a contentious feature of the poll, as it is unclear how or if the pollster deals with uncertainty as to where independents might run, as nothing is publicly known about how its questionnaire is structured.
Resolve Strategic doesn’t provide two-party preferred numbers, but I estimate a 51-49 break in favour of the Coalition on two-party preferred based on 2019 preference flows, reversing the result from last month. Breakdowns for the large states suggest the Coalition leads 53-47 in New South Wales, compared with 50-50 last time, and a swing of a bit over 1% in their favour compared with 2019; Labor leads 53-47 in Victoria, little changed on either the last poll or the 2019 election; and the Coalition leads 56-44 in Queensland, compared with 51-49 last time, for a swing to Labor of about 2.5%. Despite the voting intention numbers, the poll finds Scott Morrison has taken a solid hit on his personal ratings, consistent with the finding of other polls over the past month, with his approval rating down seven points to 40% and disapproval up to 49%. Anthony Albanese is respectively up one to 31% and four to 45%, and he has narrowed his deficit on preferred prime minister from to 44-26 to 40-29.
Full results from the poll, which was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1606, can be viewed here. Further results from the poll concerning the economic outlook (most expect it to improve) and immigration (most believe there should be less of it than pre-pandemic) can be viewed here. The pollster’s bi-monthly New South Wales state voting intention result will presumably be along this evening.
Also out yesterday was the regular fortnightly poll from Essential Research, which now comes with a flash new display, though I personally will miss the PDF that brought it all together in one easily stored file. This release features neither the monthly leadership ratings nor the quarterly dump of voting intention numbers. What it does include is the regular question on COVID-19 response by the federal government, whose good rating is down three to 45% with poor steady on 29%, and the state governments, with New South Wales’ good rating steady on 57%, Victoria’s down six to 50% and Queensland’s down two to 60%.
A question on best party to manage the economy does not follow the usual form for this issue in favouring the Coalition: instead, Labor and Liberal are tied on 34%. Furthermore, Labor leads 40-29 as the better party to “ensure the economy works in the interests of everyday Australians”, and 37-23 as best party to manage household expenses. Perhaps relatedly, fully 62% wanted the government to play a more active role in managing the economy, with only 16% wanting it to be less active and 22% thinking it has it about right. Further questions relate to government help for businesses to recover from the pandemic (respondents overwhelmingly in favour), an emissions target for 2030 (respondents believe it should be more ambitious) and freedom of speech (respondents actually aren’t all that keen on it). The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1095.
Finally, Sky News has a curious set of figures from a poll of 4010 respondents conducted way back in September by unheralded outfit Ergo Strategy, described as “News Corp’s final exclusive survey”, though I can’t find any record of anything earlier. No voting intention figures are provided, but we are told how voters for each party in 2019 intend to vote this time. Eleven per cent of Coalition voters said they were switching to Labor compared with 5% vice-versa, suggesting a shift of around 3% in favour of Labor.
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 12:54 pm
Allowing our winter olympians to travel to china to slide down a mountain, or skate in circles, is not ‘facilitating a genocide’ Boer.
….’
————————
We seem to agree on some very basic things.
1. My premise is that China is engaging in genocide against the Uighers. If you disagree with that premise we are in a different conversation altogether. If that genocide does not exist then participating in the winter olympics cannot facilitate genocide.
2. My second premise is that anything at all that the comrades can (ab)use to legitimate the CPC and its behaviours, they will. In any case, they are already using the Winter Olympics to this end. If you disagree with either the premise of the observable fact, then we do not have a conversation.
3. My logic trail is clear: participating in the Winter Olympics is facilitating genocide.
——————————————————
I am quite happy to discuss your deflection to the F1 and all other international sports events on a case by case basis should you so desire.
Just to give you a starter: I regard most of it as hopelessly venal and corrupt, enabling monopolistic press lords, destructive of the environment, bad for CO2 emissions, and destructive of community based sporting opportunities.
Further, as anyone who has spent any time in a third country during the Olympics knows very well, the schlock Aussie Aussie Aussie Oi Oi Oi crap nationalism is de rigeur for whatever nation you happen to be in. FORKED.
If only Labor’s billion dollar cash splash for vaccination had been adopted eh?
max @ #192 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:54 pm
I’m never comfortable with Shorten’s AWU faction getting a win but if it’s at the expense of the Industrial Left rats I can live with it.
Slow hand clap for the Federal Court. The take out message for elites: if the plebs hurt your feelings you can take their house and future prosperity. Yay free speech. It’s good to see the law sticking up for someone who can’t respond via a personal statement in parliament, or a press interview, or a even a reply tweet etc … (oh wait) : Sontaran potato heads are clearly in need of extra – and judicial – protection. especially those with multiple real estate investments in place. Take THAT plebs.
Seriously, an end to this argument the Greens held the balance of power in 2010. They did no such thing – the balance of power was held by the 4 independents – Wilkie, Katter, Windsor and Oakeshott.
ALP had 72 seats plus the Greens 1 = 73 seats = no government.
All the power stood with the 4 Independents.
Yes, the Senate was different however legislation cones from the House.
End of story.
China has voiced support for a nuclear weapon-free zone in Southeast Asia as it seeks to strengthen regional alliances, pushed by concerns over the new Aukus security pact, according to observers.
While Beijing has yet to sign the protocol to the Asean treaty to keep nuclear weapons out of the region – despite indicating a willingness to do so for more than two decades – pressure from the new partnership between Australia, the UK and the US could speed up the process, they said.
President Xi Jinping told Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders on Monday that China backed efforts to build a nuclear weapon-free zone and was willing to sign the protocol to the treaty “as early as possible”.
He also pledged at the virtual summit to upgrade relations with Asean to focus more on security cooperation and development funding.
Signed by Asean members in 1995, the Treaty of Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ) is a commitment to keep the region free of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.
Beijing indicated it was willing to sign the protocol to the treaty within years, but as yet, none of the five legal nuclear powers – China, the US, Russia, Britain and France – have signed up. Under the protocol, they would be obliged not to develop, manufacture or possess nuclear weapons, or to receive any assistance to do so.
If the ALP lose Jaclyn Symes and keeps Gabrielle Williams it deserves to lose the next state election because Jaclyn Symes is one of this government’s best ministers.
AirBnB’s are a scourge on ‘holiday’ residential areas, so much so I’d set a minimum of 28 day rentals if I was a councillor.
Lars at 1.06pm
If only the Coalition Government had placed timely firm orders for a suite of vaccines, instead of publishing the lie that Australia was at ‘the head of the queue’…
Jill Hennessy has announced her retirement from the Victorian parliament.
Hennessy will be a loss to the government.
Danielle Green has also announced her retirement.
Morrison should be wary of Dutton’s support, claiming that it’s mere innuendo that his boss is a habitual liar – Virgil’s maxim coming to mind.
nath says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 11:24 am
Also, any Labor government needs Greens Senators to pass anything that the Coalition doesn’t agree with. All part of the Greens master plan to squeeze Labor by the balls before doing them in and replacing them.
____________________________________________________________
I guess that is the ultimate Greens’ dream and they’re entitled to dream their dreams. I just wish some would not talk as if that is about to happen. No doubt some here would see that as a desirable outcome, as the Greens have more ambitious policies on climate change and even I have to admit the Greens have a more humane approach to refugees.
But the Greens have a long way to go from just one seat in the lower house to even getting to respectable third party status.
If the Greens were to replace Labor someday, they would find themselves in much the same compromising positions that Labor is now in. That is because they would have to appeal to enough voters in the “centre” of the spectrum to win elections, just as Labor has to now do.
If the Greens ever replaced Labor, it would probably not be long before we saw another party to their left popping up, accusing the Greens of selling out and claiming that only they were the true progressive force.
Lisel von Trapp
“If only Labor’s billion dollar cash splash for vaccination had been adopted eh?”
We dodged a bullet there, phew. What a waste of money THAT would have been! Instead of going to almost everyone, this money can go to where it’s really needed: wherever Barnaby says it should go. As quid pro quo for the Nats’ backing of net-zero. It’s all a secret at the moment, but Barnaby has never let me down!
A part of Labors ‘money for vaccines’ was as a stimulus measure- that would go to every corner of the country, especially the poorer areas.
Instead we gave Gerry Harvey and his mates 35 billion they didnt need.
“If only Labor’s billion dollar cash splash for vaccination had been adopted eh?”
________
Yeah I don’t know what Albo was thinking there. Hopefully he will avoid this sort of stuff in the future.
Scott @ #214 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 1:21 pm
How many businesses went to the wall and lives destroyed in 2021 because Morrison failed to take up Pfizers offer in 2020 ..?
Didn’t the federal government give away a million dollars in a get the vaccine bribe lotto draw
U.S. COVID update: Daily cases rise for 17 days in a row, number in hospital hits 50,000
– New cases: 92,543 …………………….. – New deaths: 1,393
– In hospital: 50,782 (+1,251)
– In ICU: 12,537 (+102)
796,217 total deaths now
Sir Henry Parkes says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 1:03 pm
——-
No! The Greens will not attempt to bring down a Labor government because they would instantly alienate their own voter base. Greens’ supporters preference Labor 85-90%. The Greens would face the same fate that independents Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott faced at the hands of their Coalition-leaning constituents, after they sided with Labor.
——
But as nath pointed out earlier, under the secret Menzies House accord between Bandit and Abbott (I understand that the Donald was a key facilitator as well) rather than frustrating the Greens’ true nefarious objectives, it would facilitate them. Ruthless jackbooted Right Wing government under which all citizens will be compulsorily subscribed to the Daily Tele or Herald Sun, and be compelled to watch Sky News. Forever.
Snappy Tom says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 1:14 pm
Lars at 1.06pm
If only the Coalition Government had placed timely firm orders for a suite of vaccines, instead of publishing the lie that Australia was at ‘the head of the queue’…
—————-
I don’t know what you’ve been reading but Australia is 14 out of 38 in the OECD for percentage of population vaccinated – and rising.
No cash splash required.
Rex Douglas says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 1:26 pm
How many businesses went to the wall and lives destroyed in 2021 because Morrison failed to take up Pfizers offer in 2020 ..?
————————————–
Good point
As Albo himself said – his (ScoMo’s) only job this year was to get us vaccinated.
Looks like Labor has set the benchmark for performance – which ScoMo has met.
They’ll probably play that clip in the advertising.
The joy of jordies, now 600k subs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_rTFRLqM6U
Barney in Tanjung Bunga @ #180 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:45 pm
And you’ve lost the plot if you really believe that. Though your own enthusiastic defense of the Chinese regime is well-known.
If I were you and I wanted to fully inform myself, I’d read this and reconsider my fulsome support for the Chinese regime:
Why China Can’t Bury Peng Shuai and Its #MeToo Scandal
Accustomed to forcing messages on audiences at home and abroad, its propaganda machine hasn’t learned how to craft a narrative that stands up to scrutiny.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/23/business/china-peng-shuai-metoo.html?unlocked_article_code=AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACEIPuonUktbfqohlSVUZACbfQMMmqBCdnr_EwL06jzrmIS6aDC1C0u0URo2N50DKI6p_Yt95lxKqeOh8Cp59Dvpj0r0YeEV3VwijppbDwstce3hvo972UG47g9eQDbpitDbmP2T8I7knzuK25k_ePWbrS7WfhSN6XHttp5JkfFCg230alOySQqMuhI4Ijbp2DYt6RDwDeCGJo_Lubhx-M96BZR3egRIkD6AbAXqA2I7BtM9TNVlaGlnET3tg4W0j6dI6OdgfP6r3KxZIa9PJClFYKUCJipCFCrrCsLUN&smid=url-share
Why China Can’t Bury Peng Shuai and Its #MeToo Scandal
Accustomed to forcing messages on audiences at home and abroad, its propaganda machine hasn’t learned how to craft a narrative that stands up to scrutiny.
I have unlocked this article so that you can read it if you do not have a New York Times subscription. Anyone can. I doubt Earlwood will read it because he has cut off his nose despite his face when it comes to China. But really, at the end of the day, what can you say about a couple of men on this blog who are prepared to turn a blind eye to the rape of a Chinese woman so they can continue to defend China? Sad.
I dare you to outline a cogent argument in defense of the Chinese treatment of Peng Shuai, Barney.
I’ll be waiting over here with the good people.
I mean, are you afraid to criticise China while you live in Asia, Barney? Normally you are very rational. About China you appear to have swallowed the Chinese Red pill.
No. I think the lottery you’re referring to was funded by private donations.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 1:28 pm
No cash splash required.
—————-
What do you call this
A fully vaccinated woman in NSW has become an instant millionaire after winning the Million Dollar Vax campaign.
Joanne Zhu, 25, from Sydney, was announced the winner of the major prize, collecting $1 million just for getting her Covid-19 vaccinations.
She was one of 2,744,974 Australians who registered for their chance to win.
“Am I dreaming, is this real? I cannot believe it,” Ms Zhu said, adding that she planned to spend a portion of her winnings on her family.
“I want to fly my family out from China first class and put them up in a five star hotel for Chinese New Year if the borders are open,” she said.
Jackol says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 1:31 pm
Didn’t the federal government give away a million dollars in a get the vaccine bribe lotto draw
No. I think the lottery you’re referring to was funded by private donations.
———————————
Thanks
Still shows that there are need for incentives ,
If only Matthew Guy could just gag all of his Vic Lib MP’s he could just quietly wait for the Labor factions to tear down Daniel Andrews.
Lars von Edwina:
I doubt it. Putting Albo’s framing out there is the last thing Morrison wants to do.
But hey, it’s Morrison in charge, and given “Where the bloody hell are you?” and all that anything is possible from this marketing genius.
Also in Tasmania
The Tasmanian liberal state government is offering iPad, iPhones and iPods for those who are under 18 to get vaccinated
lizzie @ #163 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:23 pm
Yes, AirBnBs now have to be licensed (at least in NSW). Of course some are in contravention of local laws, but in most places you can do it legally (strata title properties perhaps being the major exception, but this tends to apply mainly in cities). The idea that it is AirBnBs that are causing the house prices to rise in the regions is nonsensical. AirBnB are simply a reflection of the demand for short term rentals, not a cause – and short term rentals are is fact of great assistance to rural and regional economies, which would suffer even more without sufficient holiday accommodation to cater for the peak demands.
Also, someone asked why you would list with a real estate agent if you are on AirBnB – the answer is that if you have a rental available, you list it on all suitable outlets. Many people do both short and long term rentals. Anyone listing their rental only on AirBnB is probably missing out.
Alongside Labor’s add showing Scotty promising 4 million jabs by March 2021 not to mention the disaster of the delta outbreak.
Whoops!
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/mar/31/missed-it-by-that-much-australia-falls-34m-doses-short-of-4m-vaccination-target-by-end-of-march
Jackol
‘and it won’t all be turned into more AirBnB….’
I’m not sure when this point can be reached. I’ve talked to the local shire about this, and they can’t see any reasonable end to the demand. The flow on effect is that there aren’t rental properties available at affordable prices within 100k of Bright.
Of course, developing the area to provide the amount of accommodation which would solve the problem will kill the attraction of the area!
The next major town, Wangaratta, is locked out of new developments for at least five years, as it has already over extended the capacity of its present water supplies and sewerage disposal, with estimates that something like $200 million will need to be invested before any further development can be opened up.
Which I suppose points to a larger problem… it’s not just a case of ‘build more houses…”
Broome council is addressing the problem of short term rentals and people will have to apply for a two year licence. Public comment will part of the process with the council planning to take into consideration things such as parking and noise. They also plan to charge a higher council rate for properties used as holiday rentals. The local business community are pushing this because staff can’t get housing and regulated tourist businesses such as holiday apartments and hotels feel they are being discriminated against.
rhwombat @ #185 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:50 pm
Exceptions could be made, on application, but the dress code, remember the dress code. Scarves and socks must match, for example. You will have to sign a declaration of agreement. And martinis at 6 are compulsory, under the red chandelier. We don’t want any outsiders to be behaving like, mmm, outsiders.
Rex Douglas @ #208 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 1:13 pm
Thank goodness you’re not. You’d bankrupt nearly all holiday destinations. Why would you want to do that?
mikehilliard says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 1:37 pm
Alongside Labor’s add showing Scotty promising 4 million jabs by March 2021 not to mention the disaster of the delta outbreak.
————-
Also the promise that upto 90% of Australians would be fully vaccinated in October – failed
Albanese and Labor are correct , Morrison could not produce what he promise because of the incompetence
Morrison is importing right wing BS from the USA. So called religious freedom is just more of that. Bernard Keane has a free and concise description of what is happening on Crikey.
We don’t need a religious freedom bill, we need a Bill of Rights to protect us from the likes of Morrison and his behind the scenes string pullers.
I don’t see why the majority, and the majority of Australians are not religious, should pay for their BS through massive tax concessions and enormous subsidies to their education and health businesses.
Freedom from religion is what we really need.
Player One @ #237 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 1:43 pm
Commercial landlords can bloody well invest in commercial short term accomodation resorts in commercial zones.
‘Holdenhillbilly says:
Wednesday, November 24, 2021 at 1:07 pm
China has voiced support for a nuclear weapon-free zone in Southeast Asia as it seeks to strengthen regional alliances, pushed by concerns over the new Aukus security pact, according to observers.
….’
—————————–
It is a nonsense. There are no nuclear weapon-free zones in the world. The use of hypersonic missiles launched from what are effectively satellites, as per China’s recent hypersonic missile test demonstrates this.
Player One showing their capitalist Liberal petticoats again.
Rex Douglas @ #207 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:13 pm
Good luck telling homeowners and “small businesses” what they can/can’t do with their homes.
Boerwar @ #200 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 12:04 pm
You’re way overcomplicating it. The upcoming Olympics will happen in China. It’s a fait accompli at this point.
Liberal Western demoracies such as Australia have no place in allowing/not allowing athletes to compete in the games. If an athlete has spent the past 4 years training to be the best in the world at their sport and they want to go compete, that’s up to them. Denying them their agency is more what something like a China might be expected to do.
Saying that they’re facilitating genocide by competing at something many have spent their whole lives preparing for is tortured logic, at best. Way more effective to tackle the issue directly via diplomatic statements on the subject, or trade boycotts, or military intervention than via some tokenistic “we’re not letting our athletes come play because genocide, so take that!” gesture.
Or if you’re going to do token gestures, at least leave the athletes out of it and make it “we’re not sending any government representatives to participate in or spectate the games”.
Rex Douglas @ #239 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 1:49 pm
So you want the entire coast of Australia to look like the Gold Coast?
ar
Yeah, nah.
Those athletes are marching to national flags.
They get the national anthem played when they get a win.
They are chosen by national sporting associations.
Their training is subsidized heavily by taxpayers.
The comrades are not buying your line. Why should we?
Scotty: it isn’t a race
Picutres / graphs / Victorian lock downs
Narrator: for most Australians it was a race, but for Scotty it is never about most Australians, it is about his mates
Video in hawaii while Australia burns, at the footy getting early covid wrong through to backing the violent antivac protestors
Narrator: it is never about you with Scotty.
Rex Douglas @ #239 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 1:49 pm
What’s a commercial landlord?
Shellbell, having been past Ashbourne a few times, nah, don’t think that’s the template. I’ll have to go back to the photo of Barbra Streisand (or was it Madonna) that I was looking at when I heard the voice, a bit Elton Johnnish (but anyway) calling, telling me, calling me, to look after my brothers and sisters, the gays ones.
I’ve been working on personality criteria for Director of Nursing though.
https://youtu.be/tNKQBJZ8dOY
The solution is relatively straight forward: a bed tax.
If the beds are occupied, not taxed.
If the beds are empty, taxed.
‘Beds’ to be calculated on a notional pro rata of the floor space of a building.
Bed taxes are to be ploughed by the governments into social housing.
Good for the environment. Good for the economy. Good for the homeless.
Morrison as soon as he entered the house of reps chamber , went straight up and talked to the speaker
Scott @ #230 Wednesday, November 24th, 2021 – 1:35 pm
I wonder how many of those are worth $300