Who’s the fairest

Newspoll results on attitudes to the leaders find both performing poorly eve by the grim standards of recent history.

The Australian had follow-up results from the weekend Newspoll on Tuesday showing how the two leaders compared on nine attributes, with accompanying tables neatly comparing the results to 14 earlier following the same template going back go 2008. It is characteristic of such results to move in lock step with a leader’s overall approval rating, and these are no exception, with Scott Morrison’s position deteriorating by between eight (arrogant up from 52% to 60%) and sixteen (likeable down from 63% to 47%) points since April, while Anthony Albanese’s movements ranged from positive two (arrogant from 40% to 38%) to negative four (trustworthy from 48% to 44% and experienced from 64% to 60%).

The result is that both leaders are at or near the weakest results yet recorded on a range of measures. Scott Morrison had the worst results yet recorded for either a Prime Minister or Opposition Leader on “understands the major issues” (52%) and “cares for people” (50%) and the worst for a Prime Minister on trustworthy (42%). However, he has the consolation that Anthony Albanese’s results were hardly better at 54%, 56% and 44% respectively. Both also scored poorly on being in touch with voters, at 41% for Morrison and 46% for Albanese, while landing well clear of the 33% Tony Abbott recorded a few weeks after the Prince Phillip knighthood. Conversely, Albanese’s arrogant rating of 38% is the lowest yet recorded, comparing with a middling 60% for Morrison.

Other news:

• A Liberal preselection vote on the weekend for the eastern Melbourne fringe seat of Casey, which will be vacated with the retirement of Tony Smith, was won by Aaron Violi, executive with a company that provides online ordering services to restaurants and a former staffer to Senator James Patterson. The Age reports Violi won the last round of the ballot by 152 votes to 101 ahead of Andrew Asten, principal of Boston Consulting Group and former ministerial chief-of-staff to Alan Tudge, with the last candidate excluded being Melbourne City councillor Roshena Campbell. Earlier reports suggested Campbell and Violi to be aligned with state Opposition Leader Michael O’Brien and party president Robert Clark, while Asten is in the rival Josh Frydenberg/Michael Sukkar camp.

• A Roy Morgan poll, using its somewhat dubious SMS survey method, produced very strong results for the Labor government in Victoria, which was credited with a 58-42 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 57.3-42.7 at the 2018 election. The primary votes were Labor 43%, Coalition 31% and Greens 11%. A forced response question on Daniel Andrews found 60.5% approving and 39.5% disapproving. The poll was conducted last Thursday from a sample of 1357.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,044 comments on “Who’s the fairest”

Comments Page 5 of 41
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  1. Morrison being soft on terrorist threats!

    PRGuy
    @PRGuy17
    ·
    2m
    Anthony Albanese has called on Scott Morrison to step up and condemn violent far right extremists in Melbourne. It comes as terror police swoop on extremists plotting to kill democratically elected leaders. Mr Morrison is believed to be too afraid to call it out. #auspol

  3. When Morrison said yesterday that governments should stop interfering in people’s lives he was dog-whistling to a cohort who in the main is already in his camp – eg, neo-Nazis, anti-vaxxers, Trumpians, QAnons, assorted malcontents.

    As evidenced by the vaccination rates and by most acting in accordance with restrictions, the vast majority support the premiers and chief ministers who’ve been strong on borders and other measures designed to corral the spread of C.19, particularly Andrews, McGowan & Palaszczuk.

    Morrison thinks he’s politically smart but he’s not. To turn Menzies’ phrase back on him (Morrison), the “silent majority” support those who’ve prioritised lives over the economy, who more often than not have suffered in utilitarian terms financially & to the detriment of their mental health.

  4. Greensborough Growler @ #199 Thursday, November 18th, 2021 – 3:18 pm

    cat,

    Someone mentioned it earlier up thread. I believe it’s one of the other Cross Benchers.

    This name rings a bell from the news report I listened to as being willing to negotiate:

    Mr Clifford Hayes
    Member for: Southern Metropolitan
    House: Legislative Council
    Party: Sustainable Australia Party

  5. ”
    lizziesays:
    Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 1:42 pm
    Scott Morrison has made an awkward remark during a pre-election campaign visit to a brewery, and………
    ”

    lizzie
    You are some sort English language expert here on PB. Did you notice the wording “pre-election campaign”. Is it your wording or media reporting. If it is media reporting, now we have “pre-election campaign” in addition to election campaign.

  6. ”
    lizziesays:
    Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 1:54 pm
    Bruce Guthrie
    @brucerguthrie
    ·
    1h
    Morrison’s “very fine people on both sides” moment. Shameless
    ”

    Channelling inner Trump. 🙂

  7. There’s protestors threatening school kids in WA, I read of a 78 yo grandmother threatened by protestors on public transport yesterday and a couple of the protestors in Melbourne have been arrested for inciting terrorism. Morrison has miscued here!

  8. What a contemptible grub Morrison is. He ‘condemns’ the protesters in Melbourne but then says he ‘understands’ their frustration.
    Talk about each-way Scotty.

  11. GG

    Whatever happened to MSM journalism?

    They took all that extra money the government extorted for them from Google and went on holiday.

  13. ”Anthony Albanese has called on Scott Morrison to step up and condemn violent far right extremists in Melbourne.”

    That’s OK, they’re not black or of Middle Eastern appearance nor are they Muslim. Also, the PM wants their votes or at least their preferences.

    (Sarcasm sign)

  17. Karvelas is emphasising the “deep frustrations ” developed in Melbourne through the lockdowns. She avoids blaming the media including herself as well as the imported organisation.

  19. It’s my cynically-held belief that Morrison is delaying releasing the Murugappan family until just before he announces the election campaign.

  21. Abc headline is supporting Morrison’s criticism of violence but includes his mealy mouthed sympathy over lockdowns. ?Did PK write the headline?

  23. mundo

    but then says he ‘understands’ their frustration.

    Straight from “The Rodent 101”. When Poorlene crashed on to the scene again Howard was very much into letting them know he ‘understood’ their concerns. “So ,you know , I’m on your side but can’t openly say so,wink wink.”

  24. “A Roy Morgan poll, using its somewhat dubious SMS survey method, produced very strong results for the Labor government in Victoria, which was credited with a 58-42 lead on two-party preferred, compared with 57.3-42.7 at the 2018 election.”

    Although I am also a bit worried about the significant volatility of Morgan’s results, it is clear that the relentless attacks of the usual Coalition suspects (now aided by lunatic Trumpists) against the Victorian ALP state government, Dan Andrews in particular (with, presumably, some intentions of damaging the ALP also at the federal level) are showing to be politically totally ineffective. This is a very good sign of the maturity of democracy in Victoria.

  27. This morning Matthew Guy demanded that Liberal members* stop supporting the protests on steps of Parliament House after VicPol rounded up ring leaders to charge them with terrorism offenses

    We learnt that Tim Smith’s QC drinking buddy doesn’t like the pandemic legislation even though NSW Liberal Health Minister has just extended the Pandemic State of Emergency until 2023

    *20% of Liberal members supported the protestors & gallows on Parliament House steps

    People who think they are victims because their land tax has increased will continue to vote Liberal

  29. This is not your common or garden variety burglary. Thieves have uprooted more than 200 citrus trees from an orchard in South Australia’s Riverland.

    Grower Jeff Knispel, the joint managing director of Nippy’s Group, said sometime after dark on the Friday before last someone snuck in and stole the trees.

    They had been planted just days before, so they would have been easy to pull out. A small, camping style shovel was left behind.

    Nippy’s, whose status in SA is on par with Farmers Union, produces juices and flavoured milk. The company bought the new and distinct citrus strain from a research centre, and estimates the trees’ value was around $6,000.

    Knispel is reluctant to reveal what type they are, in case it helps the thieves flog them off, but agreed to call them “Sid” (not their real name).

    “If they plan to sell the plants at a growers’ market or a nursery and they don’t know the variety, it won’t help their cause,” he said.
    …
    Someone with a trained eye might notice that Sid’s leaves are a different shape to a run-of-the-mill citrus tree. That could work in Nippy’s favour because the trees are recorded and registered to the company.

    And the DNA of the distinct variety could be matched to the scene of the crime.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/18/thieves-uproot-hundreds-of-trees-of-new-citrus-variety-from-south-australian-orchard

  30. Been out all day … don’t know if this has been posted yet …

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-18/british-columbia-sees-death-toll-rising-massive-flood-ottawa/100630424

    The flooding is the second weather-related calamity to hit British Columbia in the past few months. A massive wildfire in the same region as some of the devastation destroyed an entire town in late June.

    “These are extraordinary events not measured before, not contemplated before,” Mr Horgan said.

    Sound familiar?

    Anybody who thinks climate change is not an immediate and existential threat is a fool.

    And if you want action on climate change, don’t vote for a political party that is a captive of the Fossil Fuel industry. Vote Independent.

  34. Josh Butler
    @JoshButler
    ·
    22m

    Scott Morrison has posted a Facebook video titled “It’s time for governments to step back”

    it’s from his answer to a question about protests in Melbourne – except for the bit where he condemns the protesters (highlighted bit is what’s in the video)

  35. Finally they have made a decision and made the Adelaide oval test a vaccination only event. What took them so long? A nice little nudge to get SA vaccinations towards 90%.

    Crazy windy day. I think all windy days should be formally classified as a “Friday”. And it is beer o’clock.

  36. Traditions of probity in government in Australia are all but dead. So, like Boerwar, I have no idea what will happen in SA after the AG suffered a vote of no confidence.

    However my understanding of the Westminster system is clear: any minister (or government) that suffers defeat in a vote of no-confidence must resign. Vicky Chapman must go.

    Perhaps parliament can send a copy of the vote to the governor?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-18/vickie-chapman-vote-of-no-confidence/100631558

  37. Apologies for the long post but there are some interesting developments in SA right now. Today the lower house successfully passed a vote of no confidence in the Deputy Premier and AG Vickie Chapman.

    Now, it should be quickly pointed out that a vote of no confidence in a Minister is not the same as one in the Premier or Government itself, so she hasn’t been removed and will stay in her role, unless she resigns or the Premier decides to drop her as AG (although her position as Deputy leader is a matter for the party room.) What does matter is that this is another substantial vote that the Government has lost on the floor of the lower house, since several right wing MPs defected from the Party.

    The Opposition are obviously going along with it to undermine the Government’s authority in order weaken it at the next election but the motivation for the ex-Liberals is slightly different: they’re flexing their muscles against the moderates who control the party. As has been reported over the last year or so, the hard right has been on a take-over blitz of the party – going on recruitment drives in fundamentalist churches and winning key positions in the party’s infrastructure. The only thing that’s stood in their way on a state level is that the party room is still stacked with moderates. So they are hoping to force the party to change from the outside (a similar strategy employed by many hard right groups around the world in the last decade: start on the outside and divide the support base, then eventually be absorbed back in and take over.) Their targeting Chapman is also an attempt to destroy her future prospects as she has been tipped as the heir-apparent, if and when Marshall steps down as leader.

    So the question is what does this all mean in the political short-term. Will voters see this as a government bogged down by infighting (as the SA Libs have a rich history of) or will they just shrug this off as boring parliamentary intrigue that doesn’t really matter to them and the tantrums of a few attention-seeking rebel MPs? In terms of the Government having confidence, I think that the date of election writs is close enough that Marshall should still be able to hold the ball until the siren, although he doesn’t have the option to just prorogue parliament until the election as a recent constitutional amendment removed that ability. Had this all happened a year or so earlier, I could see the Government (or at least the Marshall Premiership) collapsing on the floor of the House.

    The Government obviously want this to be just treated as boring parliamentary politics and hope that Marshall’s non-controversial personality and any remaining positivity from the Government’s management of COVID gets them over the line with a nice comfortable majority and they can put it behind them. However, if they only scrape back in with a minority government, then it’s going to be rocky and Marshall will probably be on borrowed time (and Chapman will be too damaged to succeed him.) There might be someone on that frontbench right now who is in the moderate faction but willing to do a deal with the Right who is ready to take the knives out at the right moment. (Of course, the other possible outcome is they just lose the next election but that’s obviously a complete loss for Marshall.)

  38. Socrates,

    I’m pretty sure there was a similar No Confidence motion in Queensland some time ago which was ignored by the Government of the day.

    A no Confidence Motion success against the Government would be a different thing.

  41. Gosh I wonder how long this has been going on in the Rum Corp State ? Good that they have discovered that this sort of thing is happening though, as now they can do something to stop it ever happening again :sarc:

    NSW councils

    ‘Fox in charge of the hens’ house’: Council candidates fail to declare links

    Hassan Awada, the land to be developed, and his wife, Souad.
    A former deputy Liberal mayor whose wife’s development bid arose from an unusual zoning decision …….

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/fox-in-charge-of-the-hens-house-council-candidates-fail-to-declare-links-to-property-developments-20211116-p599gd.html

  42. SK

    Koutsantonis can now get 22 witnesses to speak in his favour 🙂

    GG

    I take your point governments are ignoring conventions, but as the saying goes, two wrongs do not make a right. Hawke dropped a minister for failing to declare a $50 bear to customs. The convention is Chapman should resign.

  43. lizzie says:
    Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 5:25 pm

    Josh Butler
    @JoshButler
    ·
    22m

    Scott Morrison has posted a Facebook video titled “It’s time for governments to step back”
    ….”
    ————————
    Governments are OK but Morrison should step back all the way.

  44. ”
    lizziesays:
    Thursday, November 18, 2021 at 5:25 pm
    Josh Butler
    @JoshButler
    ·
    22m

    Scott Morrison has posted a Facebook video titled “It’s time for governments to step back”
    ”

    Niki Savva: It is bizarre for the Prime Minister to disagree with mandating vaccinations, then try to reap the reward from its benefits, then insist journalists covering his events must carry proof of vaccination to access venues with restrictions.

  45. P1,

    The only message you promote is that if you yell and scream at people long enough they will give in to your bullying, immaturity and lack of a co-operative approach to political issues.

    I have many daughters and I can tell you, “You are Dreaming”.

  47. Some SA state polling would be nice some time in the near future. C’mon, if this were any other state, we’d be inundated with polling by now.

    This is probably Peter Malinauskas’s only realistic shot of leading his party to a win. He sure as shit won’t be getting there by winning voters’ hearts and minds, as he is an invisible dud who only has the job because of his connections.

  48. These are the men Scotty has sympathy for.

    Terror detectives from the Security Investigations Unit have charged a Melbourne man with inciting protesters to make explosives, as police continue to investigate threats against Victorian MPs who supported the state’s controversial pandemic legislation.

    Endeavour Hills man Imre Pelyva, 36, has been accused of three charges including incitement, and will appear at the Dandenong Magistrates’ Court next week.

    Police have also charged Werribee man Kenneth Reinhold Panten as part of their investigation.

    The 22-year-old is set to face the Werribee Magistrates Court early next year accused of incitement, and also faces allegations of distributing child abuse material.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-18/melbourne-man-charged-pandemic-bill-protest-inciting-explosives/100630316

  50. Socrates,

    As Wat eloquently posted, there is doubt whether Parliamentary convention extends to Ministers. The whole Parliamentary process of Prime Ministers and Cabinets are not part of the Constitution. It’s only the lack of support for money bills that is actually relevant

    What Hawke and Fraser did is external to Parliament.

    I understand the political imperative, but the Premier is not obliged to act if he’s prepared to take that risk on.

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