Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor in Victoria

A new state poll from Victoria finds the Andrews government matching the heights of its 2018 election landslide.

The Australian reports a Newspoll survey of state voting intention in Victoria credits Daniel Andrews’ government with a thumping lead of 58-42 on two-party preferred, matching the 57.3-42.7 result in the 2018 election landslide. The primary vote were similarly closely matched to the election result, with Labor at 44% (compared with 42.9%), the Coalition at 36% (compared with 35.2%), the Greens at 11% (compared with 10.7%) and others at 9% (compared with 11.2%, and in defiance of an apparent recent trend of minor parties profiting from anti-lockdown sentiment).

Daniel Andrews is credited with an approval rating of 56% and a 42% disapproval rating, while Matthew Guy manages only 34% and 42% two-and-a-half months after returning to the Liberal leadership. Andrews holds a 54-33 lead as preferred premier. Sixty per cent rate that Andrews has handled the pandemic well compared with 39% for poor, with Andrews performing notably better among women (65% and 34%, compared with 55% and 43% among men) and younger age cohorts. A distinctive feature of the poll is low uncommitted ratings: only 2% neither approved nor disapproved of Andrews, with 1% declining a view as to how well Andrews had handled the pandemic.

The poll was conducted Thursday to Wednesday from a sample of 1029.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

35 comments on “Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor in Victoria”

  1. When Peta Credlin claimed Victorians had baseball bats ready for Daniel Andrews and Anthony Albanese , did she actually mean
    Those baseball bats were for Daniel Andrews and Anthony Albanese to hit the Victorian and Federal Lib/nats out of the electorates

  2. Apart from the appalling calls for violence in recent “anti-vax” and “anti-lockdown” protests in Melbourne, I could not help noticing a lot of the signs and even the prop gallows were quite neatly printed and produced. The signs were obviously professionally printed. Who pays for them? Somebody is obviously putting money into these protests. Anyone know who is organising them?

  3. Socrates: “The signs were obviously professionally printed. Who pays for them? Somebody is obviously putting money into these protests. Anyone know who is organising them?”
    My guess is the same people hoping for and putting resources into a Morrison win.

  4. No surprise the mass exodus from Victoria has basically left only Labor supporters living in this once great state. It doesn’t really matter how bad Dan performs he will just get re-elected.

  5. The allegedly dubious methodology of the recent Morgan Poll on Victorian politics seems to have been vindicated if Newspoll is regarded as the gold standard for pollsters these days. The only real discrepancy is the higher independents vote in the Morgan poll. Looks like voters are split between those for and those agin the Premier and his government. Clearly, the rabble of an Opposition are making no headway despite their recent change of Leadership.

    https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8858-victorian-voting-intention-approvals-november-2021-202111111348

  6. Search domain afr.comhttps://www.afr.com › politics › federal › influential-citizens-vow-to-fight-andrews-pandemic-laws-20211115-p59928
    The group includes members of Melbourne’s Smorgon and Liberman families, who are bankrolling an advertising campaign against the controversial reforms, which have sparked public protests ahead …

  7. These results give one confidence in the majority of our fellow citizens

    Simply, we live in times of a Pandemic and government has the responsibility to protect us to the best of its ability and advice

    Not by not telling citizens what they can and can not do in such times

    In Aged Care, the Federal government opted for its ideology of the most effective form of regulation is self regulation – and we all saw the results now confirmed by a Royal Commission, an Independent Review of one business where deaths occurred and now the proceedings in the Coroner’s Court (and the State government stepped in to control a circumstance out of control)

    That a government moves to enshrine permanent powers in an emergency is the responsibility of government

    Otherwise why even have a government?

    Why not just have mob rule?

    Who sends the Nation to War?

    In all the places the Nation has gone to War, losing each from the Korea War onwards (so how many?)

    We are in a War against a Pandemic

    And, fortunately, we now have a vaccine mitigating risk along with other prudent protocols such as physical distancing where you can and otherwise wearing masks (so on public transport and in hospitals and Aged Care businesses among other settings)

    58/42 is landslide proportions

    Thank you my fellow Victorians

  8. The vic liberals in their current make up are unelectable.

    Having said that. The feral media have succeeded in planting the seed that vic Premier and govt are somehow dictatorial.

    People I normally consider sympathetic to team Labor, really believe the pandemic bill is a bridge too far.

    Its ridiculous to me, especially as Victoria has been the only state who requires parliament approval to extend state of emergency powers, and this bill has more oversight than any other in Australia.

  9. “Newspoll: 58-42 to Labor in Victoria”…

    Hey, pro-Liberal party Covid Fascists:… Take that one UP YOUR A..E!!!

    Ha, ha, ha… 🙂

    Gees, I needed that one after the Covid Fascists plunged Victoria into a Covid mess, thus causing disease and some deaths, only with the purpose of helping the Trumpist ScuMo… Oh, what am I talking about you say? Read here:

    Weekly cumulative Covid cases (Mon to Sun) since 14th of June (third Covid wave):
    …………………………………NSW (Coalition Gov.)………VIC (ALP)……
    14-20 June: ……….…………. 29 ……………………………… 26……………
    21-27 June: ……………………114 …………………………….. 21…………
    28 June – 4 July: …………..186……………………….………..9…………
    5-11 July: ……………………….311………………………………..8………………
    12-18 July: …………………….699………………………………63…………
    19-25 July: …………………….846…………………………….117……………
    26 July – 1 August: …………1361……………………………46……………
    ……………………………………………(End of July, anti-lockdown protests in Melbourne: “Tough stay-at-home measures were in force at the time in Victoria as the state battled rising Covid-19 case numbers that jumped the border from Sydney’s deadly Delta outbreak.”)
    2-8 August: …………………..1773………………………………62……………
    9-15 August: …………………2599……………………………..134……………
    …………………………………………(About 14 August, large illegal party in Melbourne)
    16-22 August: ……………….4541………………………………310……………
    ………………………………………(21 August, large anti-lockdown protest in Melbourne)
    23-29 August: ……………….6654………………………………481……………
    30 August- 5 September…9311……………………………..1026…………
    6-12 September……………..9789……………………………..2213……………
    13-19 September……………8692……………………………..3407……………
    ……………………………………(About 19 September, protests at CFMEU headquarters in Melbourne started, subsequently spreading to the Shrine of Remembrance)
    20-26 September……………7066……………………………..4932…………
    27 September-3 October…5798……………………………..7951…………
    (Weekly cases in Victoria “finally” overcome the number of weekly cases in NSW: “Mission accomplished???”)…………………………………………………………………………..
    4-10 October…………………4115…………………………….11891………
    11-17 October……………….2728…………………………….12951………
    18-24 October……………….2166…………………………….13599………
    25-31 October……………….1677…………………………….10475………
    1-7 November………………..1569…………………………….8432………
    8-14 November………………1625…………………………….7752………
    ……………………………………………………..(Number of Covid cases in Victoria peak on 18-24 October to then steadily going down, and on November 13 there is another anti-Victorian government demonstration in Melbourne. Demonstrations continued in the following days.)
    TOTAL:………………………73,649…………………………..85,906………

    As Qld strongly imposed borders restrictions and went tough against any Covid-Fascist, Victoria was gradually overwhelmed with the NSW-Covid Third Wave, with the contribution of the Covid-spreading activities organised by the Fascists. Incidentally, these are the total number of deaths during the third wave in the three states, see the difference:
    Covid Third-Wave deaths in the three largest states (in terms of population)
    Updated until 19 November 2021:
    563 deaths in NSW
    443 deaths in VIC
    0 deaths in QLD

    … and as far as the tough on borders Qld (ALP state government) is concerned, note the number of third-wave Covid cases (updated until 14 November), alongside their ZERO deaths shown above:
    …………………………………..NSW………………………………VIC…………………….QLD
    TOTAL:………………………73,649…………………………..85,906……………….378

    ScuMo, the Coalition and their Fascist/Trumpist thugs: Put the economic wellbeing of their mates in the 1% first!

    State and Federal ALP: Put the wellbeing of the People first!

    BIG DIFFERENCE!….. Now the readers are ready to vote at the coming federal election…….

  10. From the Dawn Patrol

    [‘Privately he reserves his biggest salvos for the leadership of the Coalition government: Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg and Barnaby Joyce. He harbours the hope that if Labor’s Anthony Albanese wins the election, policies more fit to serve the national interest rather than narrow sectional interest might be served.’]

    A most damning indictment on the Morrison government, from one of their own.

  11. I guess breathless reporting of IBAC ‘branch stacking’ proceedings by one of PB regular posters and ‘Dan the Dictator’ style reporting by few others did not seem to sway many regular people outside PB bubble.
    It looks Victorian people do not seem to care about ‘Branch stacking’ of Labor or Andrews leadership style for the time being.
    One of poster, who reported about IBAC proceedings pointed that Andrews is an ordinary leader with Messianic following on PB. Atleast that seems to be applicable not only to some PB bloggers but a substantial Victorian people.
    I do not understand why that ‘Guy’ became leader of Vic Libs again or allowed to became leader after landslide loss at last election under his leadership. Well “it’s done” as one of the posters posted.

  12. Matty Guy has the same problem that ScoMo has in that he can’t control the back benchers. The average punter looks at the rabble on the steps of parliament as a bunch of crazies who you would normally cross the street to avoid. Yet, Victorian Liberal back benchers not only join the crowd but address them.

    The overwhelming majority (like 70% plus) had absolutely no problem with getting vaccinated, so appealing to the Anti-vax minority (who is at most 10%) is simply a losing strategy.

  13. Woke from a strange dream this morning.
    I was walking along a beach. The tide appeared to be going out. I heard a voice shouting from the breakers. As I looked out to sea, I could pick out a figure who looked uncannily like our PM.
    He was caught in a rip and being dragged out into deeper water.
    He had both hands up in the air like a person in trouble , but strangely enough, he was shouting
    “look at me, look at me !” rather than ” help!”
    Every now and then a large wave would submerge him but he would surface , yelling ” look at me”!
    Behind me a group of people were engaged in a game of beach cricket. Nobody appeared to notice the drowning man’s cries.
    Then my alarm went off and I awoke with a start.
    I can’t help wondering how the dream may have ended. Maybe I’ll dream the sequel sometime.

  14. It’s almost like the same “we’re just glad to all be opened up and back to normal, fuck dwelling on the minutiae of the past 18 months” effect that has helped leaders everywhere is also working for Andrews.

    Almost everybody cares more about life being back to pseudonormal than the minutiae of the pandemic powers bill. Only people with the political judgment of Tim Smith, Matthew Guy and Andrew Bolt would have been convinced that was a vote winner.

  15. “Gettysburg1863says:
    Saturday, November 20, 2021 at 12:20 pm
    Woke from a strange dream this morning.
    I was walking along a beach. The tide appeared to be going out. I heard a voice shouting from the breakers. As I looked out to sea, I could pick out a figure who looked uncannily like our PM.
    He was caught in a rip and being dragged out into deeper water…….Then my alarm went off and I awoke with a start.”

    Damn, you missed the Wethepeople shark coming ….

  16. “B.S. Fairmansays:
    Saturday, November 20, 2021 at 11:55 am
    Matty Guy has the same problem that ScoMo has…..
    The overwhelming majority (like 70% plus) had absolutely no problem with getting vaccinated, so appealing to the Anti-vax minority (who is at most 10%) is simply a losing strategy.”….

    ScuMo first and Guy a bit later will be deafened by the voting voice of the Silent Majority!!

  17. “Ven says:
    Saturday, November 20, 2021 at 11:08 am
    I do not understand why that ‘Guy’ became leader of Vic Libs again or allowed to became leader after landslide loss at last election under his leadership.”

    Nobody else wanted to look ridiculous in public day and day out…. The Guy is used to it, so he doesn’t care much.

  18. Tom wonders if the Federal figures reflect the 58/42 state figure. On the sidebar, use the link “Click here for a more detailed view”, then click polling data and finally switch to the Victoria tab. Then you will see that the federal Lab vs Lib 2PP in Victoria is usually around 55-57 vs 45-43 at the moment: in other words, a touch more balanced but probably not significantly different.

  19. It’s worth noting that this 58-42 result is also identical to the SMS poll the week before, which I think was a sample of around 1300. The only real difference is that the SMS poll had a much higher “Other” vote, but still returning the same 2PP.

    I didn’t put much faith in the SMS poll because I know they are a bit dubious, but an identical result a week later from Newspoll with another sample over 1000, is certainly encouraging news for those of us who don’t want to see the Victorian Liberals get anywhere near government any time soon!

  20. I believe the violent protests we have seen recently including extremists and the antivaxxers only galvanise support amongst those of us who feel the Government has done pretty well in the pandemic, all things considered. I am not surprised by this result

  21. I call bullshit. More fake leftist media at play. This poll was deliberately focussed on majority pro-labor areas. Take the same poll around Victoria in the area’s that suffered under Psycho Dan and you will get an over whelming – HELL NO! There is no way that corrupt weasel, Teflon Dan is going to be voted back as premier. His bridges are burning out of control. 400,000 + protesters, most vaxxed, not antivaxed as you limp biscuit Labor diehard blowhards would like to believe, made their presence felt. And research has shown that for every 1 protester out there another 10 at home are in agreement with them. Keep dreaming that your corrupt , morally bankrupt, narcissist joke of a premier will be back for another term after the nightmare he has turned Melbourne into with his decisive, amateurish failure after failure at the expense of Victorians. We’ll see how much you labor idiots like to eat a good helping of your own self made humble pie.

  22. I call bullshit. No way that corrupt weasel, Teflon Dan is going to be voted back as premier. 400,000 + protesters, most vaxxed, not antivaxed as you limp biscuit Labor blowhards would like to believe, made their presence felt. And research has proven that for every 1 protester out there another 10 at home are in agreement with them. Keep dreaming that your corrupt , morally bankrupt, narcissist joke of a premier will be back for another term after the nightmare he has turned Melbourne into with his decisive, child-like failure after failure at the expense of Victorians. We’ll see how much you idiots like to eat a good helping of your own self-made humble pie.

  23. To Miguel, I will just point out that the Newspoll is conducted on behalf of The Australian (Murdoch).

    These polls are scientific and don’t just focus on “majority pro-Labor areas”, but to insinuate that if Newspoll / The Australian was to impart a political bias in their polling that it would be “leftist” I think shows that your comment has no merit because Murdoch’s outlets are as conservative and anti-Andrews as it gets in Australia.

    Also, the Victorian Liberals are not seen as a viable alternative. So even swinging voters or soft ALP voters who may not be satisfied with Andrews’ performance acknowledge that Matthew Guy and the Liberals would not have handled anything better (most likely worse) and that they bring nothing to the table in other areas of policy.

    Victorians are overwhelmingly progressive so regardless of lockdown fatigue – which will be gone in a year – they will find it hard to swing to a party that voted against assisted dying, banning gay conversion therapy, rental reforms and mandatory safe schools, and dog whistle about African gangs.

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