This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.
Here’s what we do know:
• Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.
• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.
• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.
• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.
• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.
• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.
• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.
• Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.
Poll news:
• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.
• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.
• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.
• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.
Also:
• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.
On the other hand, our government will take us wherever the US goes 😛
Some people in Madagascar want subs to counter the Chinese. Probably there is a Madagascan somewhere right now talking about ‘pinch points’.
While Morrison dreams up more funding rorts and pretends to cook curries…
Your cheeks, behind your elbow, your wrist, etc. All eminently pinchable.
Australian defence policy is predicated on two things:
Conflict with China is possible, even probable
We cannot handle China all on our own
The inexorable conclusion is that we need to draw or hold others in alliances that will suit our own ends. The subs matter is being determined within this context.
Conflict with China over Taiwan is certainly on the cards. Taiwan is a US client, though its sovereignty is not settled. The US probably cannot abandon Taiwan, even if it wants to. So Australian and US strategies in relation to China are intimately aligned. This alignment has become more pronounced in the last few years, and will likely remain intact for a s long as Xi rules China.
Isn’t there such things are anti-submarine weapons? Not that I would know. But I assume you can’t just go up to surface fleets, and shout “got ya!”.
JPK..
This is all about, what young guy that works … Andrew Shearer? This is Andrew Shearer? Well, can’t wait to get the staplers back onto the Americans and you have the ambassador, a local Sydney genius telling us now, no. Why would we need submarines in defence of Australia that are able to stand off the Chinese coast 13 flying hours away if it is not to attack Chinese naval assets?
Bold as ever…
Keating says while there is no doubt that China is more authoritarian with surveillance, but at the same time it wants to be part of the world, and contrasted it with the ongoing fracturing in the US.
He says China is seeking to have the extremes of wealth moderated, and have platforms like Facebook, Google and others “operating in a socially good way.”.
He says he believes, authoritarianism aside, that China “will become a more civil society than the United States.”
Lurker
It’s about making things as difficult as possible.
That said, China can probably build its ships faster than we can sink them. I doubt the reverse is true.
Buying subs is us trying to compete in completely the wrong space.
“ So now we are going to ride our subs up to the coast of China and threaten them? Utterly hilarious.”
There is a conflation of a few issues right there. First of all, IMO we should drop the bellicose posturing that we have seen from ScoMo asap.
Therefore, secondly, its not about riding up to China and threatening them. In my view we should drop out off the equally bellicose ‘freedom of navigation’ wank fest that Julia Bishop signed on for (which Richard Marles and his faction of little Wolverines cheered on, btw).
Rather, the point of our defence policy, vis-a-vis China is to present one half of the overall bargain: namely, if you come south, our small fleet of superior subs can knock your fleet out, besides (the other half of the overall bargain) we will sell you for market price the commodities you want: why go to war? Look at America – it wasted billions in failing to control Islamic hillbillies in pick up trucks with AK47s, do you really want to get bogged down in Australia?
Ultimately, this whole thing is about America’s ego: it cant bear the thought of losing its position at the top of the geopolitical tree and is going through the 12 stages of grieving for its soon to be lost Primary in East Asia. All the stuff it has pulled out of its arse recently – human rights, self determination – are things it gave zero fucks about with China right up until it was forced to face up to the inevitable forces of history (and if you any doubt about the zero fucks point: America still gives zero fucks about those lofty notions with various of its international buddies: Saudi Arabia top of the list – and its a pretty long list underneath that as well).
With that in mind, it seems to me that the Marketing man is pandering to the delusions of not just one ally, but two – the rising British sun in the Pacific: absurd. We are much better off dealing with the French as our main strategic ally in the South Pacific and working with the Americans as they transition through their grieving process. Unfortunately we need to deal with the forelock tiggers in this terrible, no good, awful government first.
DisplayName says:
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 2:39 pm
Lurker
It’s about making things as difficult as possible.
___________________
If anyone is so determined to invade Australia. Has worked out the logistics for such an incredible and vast undertaking, including how they are going to trek across Australia, assuming they are not landing in the S.E.
Then don’t you think they are entitled to the place?
“ Isn’t there such things are anti-submarine weapons? Not that I would know. But I assume you can’t just go up to surface fleets, and shout “got ya!”.”
There was an excellent article that imacca posted just after midnight a couple of night’s ago written by an American ASW expert, where he details the nightmare that surface ships and anti-submarine weapon systems have when trying to counter conventional submarines around the relevant pinch points.
For now, the subs (rather, the re-announcement of a delay in Australia’s submarine procurement :P) should be viewed as a kind of diplomacy :P. Not necessarily very smart diplomacy ….
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 2:40 pm
Rather, the point of our defence policy, vis-a-vis China is to present one half of the overall bargain: namely, if you come south, our small fleet of superior subs can knock your fleet out, besides (the other half of the overall bargain) we will sell you for market price the commodities you want: why go to war?
________________
Fair enuff. It’s not like I’m going to get my way. Perhaps the best that can come out of it is if leads to some Australians getting better sleep. It’s not as if we aren’t pissing billions up against the wall anyway. (jobkeeper).
Lurker
Sounds like an incompetent time-waster who loves grandiose, empty gestures. We vote that kind of person into government. They wouldn’t need to invade :P.
I suppose I could support buying subs if it is promoted as a mental health measure for nationalists:
brings down the anxiety levels for 50% of the people.
more sleep leads to more productivity.
more men in naval uniforms are bound to please certain demographics.
This AUKUS & the nuclear subs is about Australian getting nuclear power station & nothing else..
Last night BBC had piece on Rolls Royce producing mini (but still big) “flat pack” nuclear power stations.. claiming some bullshit about mass industrial production of Ikea like components .. these are supposedly based on the UK nuclear sub power plant technology… all total PR crap of course.. they will take 10 years to build & have a 60 year life cycle.. all this to provide “base load ” power… The Shire Liar got all his talking points on this a year ago.. with Boris & Boris’s ragbag Australian advisers..
Rolls-Royce plans fleet of 16 mini nuclear power stations across UK
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/mini-nuclear-power-stations-uk-rolls-royce-b1721175.html
https://www.business-live.co.uk/manufacturing/fleet-16-mini-nuclear-power-19258778
WTAF? Oh! Humour?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jtQAMzZkUTw
“treking” across Australia wouldnt necessarily be slow once a few conditions were met.
Sceptic @ Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 2:54 pm
Oh my! What a coincidence!
So SfM was out-sales-personed by BoJo?
laughtong says:
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 2:14 pm
From the Guardian blog.
The federal government is attempting to lead new “super-secret” evidence against Bernard Collaery in the Timor-Leste spying case, prompting fury from Collaery and warnings from a supreme court judge that it may cause a “perpetual vortex” of delay and secrecy.
Collaery, a barrister charged for his role in exposing Australia’s bugging of Timor-Leste, won a major victory last month, when the ACT court of appeal overturned orders shrouding much of his looming trial in secrecy.
The court found the risk posed to national security by hearing the case in public was minimal, while open justice was crucial in deterring “political prosecutions”, among other things.
On Wednesday, however, lawyers for attorney-general Michaelia Cash told the ACT supreme court that they wanted to introduce “updated” evidence about the national security risks posed by hearing aspects of the Collaery case openly.
They argued the national security situation had changed significantly in the 20 months that it has taken for Colleary’s appeal to be heard and resolved.
The government now wants to produce new “court-only evidence” – evidence only the judge can see, and not Collaery – on the security risks. It wants to appoint its own special counsel, paid for by the Commonwealth, to examine the material on behalf of Collaery.
Collaery’s barrister, Christopher Ward, SC, criticised the move as a “carte-blanche” attempt to re-open the case by leading fresh evidence.
“It’s described gently as being updated evidence, but it’s fresh evidence, your honour,” he said.
The process that the Commonwealth want to take to get the new evidence before the court would take months and may trigger another appeal, extending the timetable further.
Justice David Mossop questioned whether there would ever be an end to the case, if the attorney-general wanted to continually produce new evidence updating the court on new developments in national security.
“Is there any prospect of this matter ever being completed? Or will we be stuck in a perpetual vortex of updating,” he said. “You may not want to answer that but I’m just telling you what I think, and perhaps thinking out loud a little too much.”
Outside of court, Collaery slammed the move, saying he was wholly opposed to the Commonwealth relying on new “super-secret evidence” that was kept from him and his lawyers.
“This takes the commonwealth’s hypocritical obsession with secrecy to new heights when one considers recent events,” he said.
“I strongly object to the court being given and relying on evidence we can’t see. It’s a shameful mockery of open justice.”
________________________________________________________
So Scomo is against governments telling people what to do, but is okay with governments presenting secret evidence that accused people cannot see and trying them in secret.
This constant so-called “updating” of secret evidence is reminiscent of the apartheid era South African government’s trick of detaining people without charge for the legally minimal period, and then detaining them for the same period, straight after they were released.
This government is a miserable basketload of deplorables.
If someone has endangered Australia’s national security, bring them to book by all means. But our democracy insists that their legal rights be safeguarded as much as anyone’s.
If the “evidence” is so sensitive it cannot be made public, then no charges should proceed. If you can’t prove a case in an open court and allow the accused to contest the charge, then there should be no case. Such a travesty of legal rights should only be contemplated in an emergency such as war.
Australia is not at war, so drop all charges against Bernard Collaery and all the others whose identities have been suppressed, along with the secret “evidence”.
Who’s for curry?
(Tap the image for the full catastrophe)
So the ABC cut away from Keating for an “analysis” by Stan Grant. It’s about “balance”, you know. Very immature decision by ABC. Grant already has plenty of China air time.
Lurker @ #2543 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 2:28 pm
I don’t always agree with your posts but this is a fair assessment of some folks in this regard.
The indictment against Collaery should be permanently stayed by the ACT Supreme Court or nollied by Attorney-General Cash, as his prosecution is a travesty, the latest attempt to lead “super secret” evidence a farce, the proceeding having been underway since June 2018.
Collaery turns 77 on Friday, the strain he’s under must be immense, let alone the financial burden. And all due to him being an honest broker in the cause of Timor-Leste’s soverignity. I do hope that an incoming Labor government does the right thing if the action against Collaery is extant.
“ Australian defence policy is predicated on two things:
Conflict with China is possible, even probable
We cannot handle China all on our own
The inexorable conclusion is that we need to draw or hold others in alliances that will suit our own ends. The subs matter is being determined within this context.
Conflict with China over Taiwan is certainly on the cards. Taiwan is a US client, though its sovereignty is not settled. The US probably cannot abandon Taiwan, even if it wants to. So Australian and US strategies in relation to China are intimately aligned. This alignment has become more pronounced in the last few years, and will likely remain intact for a s long as Xi rules China.”
__________
Whilst I think you have neatly summarised Australian defence thinking in the present climate, it’s a little absurd and circular in logic, isn’t it?
It is the one assumption (war possibly / likely with China) and one proposition (we need allies to deal with that probability) at the top of all of that, which lead to all the conclusions you draw below.
In my view, it’s the choice we make as to the identity our primary ally (the good ole’ US of A) – or more particularly in my view how we have come to characterise that relationship (ie. ‘where you go, we go, no questions asked’) – which gives any force to the assumption (war with China). I mean: absent America’s current obsessions, why on earth would war with China ever feature as a likely possibility?
That is why my initial – and enduring – reaction to the AUKUS announcement was one word ‘catastrophe’: by binding ourselves to America and the British buffoonery of their particular pacific pivot, whilst simultaneously destroying our strategic relationship with France (not to mention the obvious distress caused to important countries like Indonesia) we have locked ourselves into something that is clearly not in our strategic national interests and without an off ramp if/when the shit gets real.
Mavis
Seeing as you are about.
It might be worth trying a thunder coat or thunder shirt for your dog.
Many people with storm phobic dogs swear by them
How were fugitive methane emissions from China’s record annual coal production calculated?
A-E
‘
….In my view, it’s the choice we make as to the identity our primary ally (the good ole’ US of A) – or more particularly in my view how we have come to characterise that relationship (ie. ‘where you go, we go, no questions asked’) – which gives any force to the assumption (war with China). I mean: absent America’s current obsessions, why on earth would war with China ever feature as a likely possibility?
…’
———————————————-
Quite right. China has to finish off its unfinished military business with India, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Russia before it turns its hand to any left overs.
[‘laughtong:
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 3:17 pm
Mavis
Seeing as you are about.
It might be worth trying a thunder coat or thunder shirt for your dog.
Many people with storm phobic dogs swear by them’]
Thanks. I’ve never head of them but will look into it as I don’t really want to give her valium.
laughtong
I can perfectly understand your husband’s problem. I go to a very pleasant Pakistani doctor but find it hard to hear everything she says, especially when masked. It’s not racial prejudice, but a genuine difficulty, and embarrassing to ask her to repeat more than once.
China’s CPI up by 1.8% in October, year on year.
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202111/1238583.shtml
“ I don’t always agree with your posts but this is a fair assessment of some folks in this regard.”
Hi Tim: I loved your submarine service reminiscences yesterday. Sorry I haven’t gotten back you about the question you posed, regarding the stealth of SSKs vs SSNs when considering the need for an SSN to release heat to cool its reactor. I simply don’t know what – if any – work around has been developed for that problem.
Lizzie
OH is still in hospital. I took his hearing aids in but I don’t think they have been used. Coping ok atm and steadily improving. Giving me a needed break.
“ Quite right. China has to finish off its unfinished military business with India, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Russia before it turns its hand to any left overs.”
You are quite the fantasist sometimes, aren’t you Boer: if by ‘finish off’ it’s ‘unfinished military business’, you mean conquer any of those countries on that list, then we are perfectly safe: the Han empire – and her peoples – would cease to exist a long time before it once again turned its marauding eye towards little ole’ Australia again.
laughtong
That’s good for you. 🙂
Why Lee is likely to be a much more effective LOTO than COE. Note that Lee’s views are diametrically opposed to Szelja’s and Morrison’s:
https://citynews.com.au/2021/canberra-liberals-step-away-from-morrison/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
Now that is an incentive !
.
Singapore to start charging Covid patients who are ‘unvaccinated by choice’
Authorities say unvaccinated people make up a ‘sizeable majority’ of those needing the most intensive care.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/09/singapore-to-start-charging-covid-patients-who-are-unvaccinated-by-choice
‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 3:33 pm
“ Quite right. China has to finish off its unfinished military business with India, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, and Russia before it turns its hand to any left overs.”
You are quite the fantasist sometimes, aren’t you Boer: if by ‘finish off’ it’s ‘unfinished military business’, you mean conquer any of those countries on that list, then we are perfectly safe: the Han empire – and her peoples – would cease to exist a long time before it once again turned its marauding eye towards little ole’ Australia again.’
======================================
Taiwan is a gimme. India holds a lot of country that China believes it owns. Russia pinched a shit load of China using unequal treaties. And we all know that the only unequal treaties that the comrades favour are where they are the beneficiaries.
The Philippines was once run by a Chinese governor. In their guts the Chinese know they owe it to Japan to at least rub their faces it with a bit of stoush over the senkaku/isaoyu islands. South Korea only exists because of a temporary aberration of western imperialism. Unification of the koreas is a legitimate project.
But I am sure you know exactly where China will halt its current bout of militaristic imperialism. Because if you don’t, then all your views will be falsified by the comrades in due course.
Haven’t seen much of Scotty today. Did his little bit of cooking exhaust him?
lizzie @ #2587 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 3:40 pm
It’s their ABC.
(guardian)
lizzie at 3:41 pm
He’s a Major Bloodnok…………
http://bloodnok.net/aac/curriedeggs.m4a
So Scotty’s strategy is basically to force Labor into campaign mode earlier than they would like. If I was them, I would just highlight that he’s more focused on campaigning than running the country.
He thinks he can wear down the support for Albanese over the next six months, re-employ the 2019 method of making it all about Labor. The ALP better be prepared and have a good counter.
As to an invasion from China…this is laughable.
Pinch points? Perhaps there’s something in that, but with satellites it is possible to know precisely where any surface ship is – and where some Nuclear subs are.
IF (and notice my capitals because it is a big IF) China were to send a fleet, nothing slows a fleet down more than the mere existence of submarines – of any flavour.
On the other hand, if we have a “Defence Force” to defend Australia, rather than cannon fodder for US adventures overseas, then a few subs and a strong air force will provide enough of a deterrence whilst a small coastal surface fleet can defend our maritime border. We have little need to “project” power outside our immediate region. Let others be the bullies – it is a very bad look. If you have a good defence force the bullies will soon F-off. We cant stop the big boys fighting by joining in, better to not pick sides and try to be a voice of reason.
The world could really do without another cold war arms race at this critical time.
OK, standing back now for the outrage of the military minded.
Andrew_Earlwood – yep fun times in the early 70’s cold war. Regarding the stealth of SSNs, I was not a Sonar man but I knew one (who was prone to exaggerate) brag that they could hear the steam turbines whistling away at over 200 km away in the right conditions.
My only recollection of SSNs was that we were able to sneak up on them on a few occasions and they appeared to not detect us – a big blind spot at the stern.
I wonder if the peeps who calculated China’s emissions put in the shit load of methane emitted by paddy rice production?
It is only fair that China is the worlds’ leading producer of paddy rice.
It farms around 30 million hectares of the stuff.
But fair is only fair and the methane ought to be in national and global greenhouse gas budget so that when China gets to zero net 60 – or perhaps even zero net 70 – rice paddy methane is in the bag, as it were.
It turns out that, paddy rice is one of the major sources of anthropogenic methane.
In some senses this may be a self-solving problem. But perhaps not in the way the comrades are doing the calculations. The issue? Rice production is highly sensitive to temperature increases.
Which is probably why Xi made it a world leadership point to go to Glasgow, to promise reduced coal consumption, reduced CO2 emissions by 2030 and zero net 50.
A secret tape made after Columbine shows the NRA’s evolution on school shootings
https://www.npr.org/2021/11/09/1049054141/a-secret-tape-made-after-columbine-shows-the-nras-evolution-on-school-shootings
hazza4257 @ #2593 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 3:46 pm
I thought the clip you posted earlier showed Labor to be well onto it, actually saying, to the stammering Skynews dude, exactly that, namely they’re trying to make it all about us (Labor) because if it’s all about them, then there’s nothing to see. Emperor called out with no clothes. Six months of that, no wuckers.
“ Taiwan is a gimme.”
No it is not. Amphibious warfare, even by a superpower, against a country with a modern air defence system and fully worked up ground force, is extremely difficult to verging on impossible. That’s before one factors in the likelihood of America intervening (with, or hopefully without, Australia).
What ‘alot of country’ does India hold that the ChiComms covert such that it would risk a full blown confrontation with as fellow nuclear country?: we are talking about several Alpine passes and valleys at most: Scuffles may (and have) abounded, but that’s it. India sits secure in its Peninsula.
It was at this point I got tired of the rest of your fantasies.