Save the date

Confusion surrounding the likely date of the New South Wales state by-elections, to add to that we already have about the federal election.

This coming Monday is the last date on which an election can be called for this year, specifically for the December 11 date spruiked recently by Anthony Albanese, which few if any still expect. The parlour game thus seems likely to move on now to the alternative scenarios of March and May. A complication in the former case is a South Australian state election set in the normal course of events for the third Saturday in March, i.e. March 19. If I understand the situation correctly, the South Australian government will have the discretion to delay the election by up to three weeks if a federal election is called before February 19 for a date in March.

Here’s what we do know:

Max Maddison of The Australian reports grumbling within the New South Wales Liberal Party over its failure to have finalised candidates in the important seats of Dobell, Warringah and Gilmore. The report cites Liberal sources, no doubt with an interest in the matter, accusing Alex Hawke of using his clout on state executive to delay proceedings to the advantage of candidates of his centre right faction. “Other senior Liberal sources” contend the problem is “a lack of quality candidates and impending local government elections”. Prospective nominees for Dobell include former test cricketer Nathan Bracken, along with Michael Feneley, a cardiologist who has twice run unsuccessfully in Kingsford Smith, and Jemima Gleeson, owner of a chain of coffee shops.

• Further on Gilmore, the ever-readable Niki Savva reported in her Age/Herald column a fortnight ago that “speculation is rife” that Andrew Constance will not in fact proceed with his bid for preselection, just as he withdrew from contention Eden-Monaro ahead of last year’s by-election. If so, that would seemingly leave the path clear for Shoalhaven Heads lawyer Paul Ell, who is reckoned a formidable opponent to Constance in any case.

• Labor has not been breaking its back to get candidates in place in New South Wales either, with still no sign of progress in the crucial western Sydney fringe seat of Lindsay. However, candidates have recently been confirmed in two Liberal marginals: Zhi Soon, an education policy adviser and former diplomat, in Banks, and Sally Sitou, a University of Sydney doctoral candidate and one-time ministerial staffer, in Reid.

• In Victoria, Labor’s candidate in La Trobe will be Abhimanyu Kumar, owner of a local home building company.

• In an article by Jason Campbell of the Herald Sun, JWS Research says rising poll numbers for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party are being driven by “skilled labourers and lower-end middle-management”, supplementing an existing support base that had largely been limited to people over 65. Maleness and low education remain common threads.

• An article on the voter identification laws by Graeme Orr of the University of Queensland in The Conversation makes a point I had not previously heard noted: that those who lodge a declaration vote in lieu of providing identification will have no way of knowing if their vote was ultimately admitted to the count. This stands in contrast to some American states, where those who cast the equivalent of postal or absent votes can track their progress online.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• It is now clear that the by-elections will not be held simultaneously with the December 4 local government elections as initially anticipated. The Guardian reports that the state’s electoral commissioner, John Schmidt, told a parliamentary committee hearing yesterday that “it wouldn’t be possible or sensible to try and aim earlier than the middle of February”, in part because the government’s “piecemeal funding” of his agency had left it with inadequate cybersecurity standards.

• Labor has announced it will field a candidate in Bega, making it the only one of the five looming by-elections in which the Coalition and Labor are both confirmed starters. James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph (who I hope got paid extra for pointing out that “Labor has chosen to contest the seat despite Leader Chris Minns last month criticising the looming by-election as expensive and unnecessary”) reports nominees for Liberal preselection will include Eurobodalla Shire mayor Liz Innes and, possibly, Bega Valley Shire councillor Mitchell Nadin.

Anton Rose of Inner West Courier reports Liberal hopes in Jodi McKay’s seat of Strathfield are not high, particularly if Burwood mayor John Faker emerges as the Labor candidate, and that the party would “not be mounting a vigorous campaign”. One prospective Liberal nominee is said to be Natalie Baini, a sports administrator who was said earlier in the year to planning a preselection against Fiona Martin in the federal seat of Reid.

Poll news:

• A Redbridge Group poll conducted for Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 non-profit group records Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s primary vote as having slumped from 49.4% in his blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Kooyong to 38%. With the Greens on 15%, well short of the heights achieved with Julian Burnside as candidate in 2019, such a result would put Frydenberg under pressure from Labor on 31%. Around half of the balance is attributed to the United Australia Party, which seems doubtful in an electorate such as Kooyong. The objective of the poll was to test the waters for a Zali Steggall-like independent challenge, and responses to some rather leading questions indicated that such a candidate would indeed be competitive or better. The survey was conducted from October 16 to 18 by automated phone polling from a sample of 1017.

• Liberal-aligned think tank the Blueprint Institute has results from a YouGov poll on attitudes towards carbon emissions policy, conducted in nine regional electorates from September 28 to October 12 with samples of around 415 each. In spite of everything, these show large majorities in favour of both halving emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 even in such electorates as Hunter and Capricornia. Even among coal workers (sub-sample size unclear), the results are 63% and 64% respectively.

• The Australia Institute has published its annual Climate of the Nation survey, based on a poll of 2626 respondents conducted by YouGov in August.

• It took me a while to update BludgerTrack with last week’s Resolve Strategic and Roy Morgan results, but now that it’s done, I can exclusively reveal that they made very little difference. Labor is currently credited with a two-party lead of 53.8-46.2.

Also:

• Antony Green has published his analysis of the finalised Victorian state redistribution.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,799 comments on “Save the date”

Comments Page 53 of 56
1 52 53 54 56
  1. timbo says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 3:47 pm

    As to an invasion from China…this is laughable.
    Pinch points? Perhaps there’s something in that, but with satellites …’
    ======================================
    I assume that the first minute of any war between the US and China would decide who, if anybody, gets to retain satellite functionality.
    I have no idea how all that stands, ATM.
    But any assumption that satellites would still be functioning five minutes into a war is a critical assumption.

  2. As to an invasion from China…this is laughable.

    Why invade when you can just buy.

    … nothing slows a fleet down more than the mere existence of submarines – of any flavour.

    Yep – and sea mines. Sea mines are fun.

  3. Mavis, further to your 3:12pm comment about the secret trial.

    My hope is that the Albanese Government holds a royal commission into the whole sorbid affair with an emphasis on benefits gained by LNP members and their associates. If appropriate, reparations should be made to the people of Timor Leste, paid for by a levy on the profits of the fossil fuel companies who benefited.

    The LNP are creating a meme that Howard was one of our greatest. That should be proven wrong.

  4. While unsure of the veracity of this post, it would seem that dogs are prescribed larger doses of valium than humans:

    [‘debbi44 27 Sep 2017

    I’m sorry but you imagine wrong. The dose of valium for a dog is higher than prescribed for humans. As a dog has a lower absorption rate than humans. They also break down into 3 different components in a dog, meaning the effect will only last half as long in a dog than a human. How do I know you ask? Simple, I have an Epileptic dog that has been having seizures for 4 yrs. He is on twice daily meds, but when he does seize, he cluster seizes, and thank god for liquid valium, given rectally or orally, if really really bad I will give intravenously. But not very often. It always pulls him out of it. BUT ALWAYS SEEK YOUR VET’S ADVICE & DOSAGE FIRST. You have to get from vet anyway.’]

    I still think that up to 45mg is over the top.

  5. ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 3:58 pm

    “ Taiwan is a gimme.”

    No it is not. Amphibious warfare, even by a superpower, against a country with a modern air defence system and fully worked up ground force, is extremely difficult to verging on impossible. That’s before one factors in the likelihood of America intervening (with, or hopefully without, Australia).

    What ‘alot of country’ does India hold that the ChiComms covert such that it would risk a full blown confrontation with as fellow nuclear country?: we are talking about several Alpine passes and valleys at most: Scuffles may (and have) abounded, but that’s it. India sits secure in its Peninsula.

    ==================================
    Your fantasy is the assumption that China, short of Taiwan, has reached some sort of ‘natural’ set of permanent land borders for ever and ever. Mind you, if not forever and ever, when?

    The issue for anyone trying to figure out ‘What next?’ is that neither of us can actually predict what the comrades will do. What might happen, for example, if there is a general economic decline in China and there is severe civilian unrest? What do dictators do in those circumstances? I am sure in your rationalist world Xi’s behaviour is quite predictable. Me? I’m not so sure. A shit load of observers 15 years ago convinced themselves and just about everyone else that China was on the road to increasing freedoms, increasing openess – yada, yada, yada. How wRONg they were!
    China is clearly building towards a major military effort on Taiwan. Your notion that states that go to war do so rationally has been falsified time and again in history.
    China claims around a quarter to a fifth of India’s north-eastern provinces (aka South Tibet) and around a quarter of Kashmir. No-one is saying that China will conquer India. Your straw man. What I am saying is that China has significant unfinished military business with India. You appreciate choke points and would be interested in the Chinese roading heading towards the Siliguri Corridor.
    As for the other areas of unfinished business, they may come to nothing. You may be right. China might decide that its borders are ‘natural’. It may learn to accept the permanent losses to Russia.
    In that case we can just assume that wall of the jingoistic and militaristic posturing directed internally, full bore and non stop is the pap of the masses and will make absolutely no difference to anything at all. Perhaps.

  6. Jaeger says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 4:16 pm

    … we are talking about several Alpine passes and valleys at most
    …’
    ==========================
    A-E is factually incorrect in this matter.

  7. Mavis says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 4:17 pm
    ….
    I still think that up to 45mg is over the top.’
    ==================================
    Have any dogs complained?

  8. Mavis

    I still think that up to 45mg is over the top.

    Perhaps that figure is the dose shared between dog and owner ? Calm owner,calm dog 🙂

  9. Boerwar at 4:20 pm

    Mavis says: at 4:17 pm
    ….
    I still think that up to 45mg is over the top.’
    ==================================
    Have any dogs complained?

    So far, not a peep.

  10. PJK said that Taiwan considers itself to be Chinese, China considers Taiwan to be Chinese, there is a lot of trade between the 2, and Taiwanese own property in China, the status quo will remain unless Taiwan says its not Chinese (I got confused in his subtlety)

    Notice at the start he called the Japanese the Bourbons of Asia, never learning or apologising

    ===================
    Using Australian submarines at pinch points to stop Chinese subs getting to the Marianas Trench.
    WHY?
    China wants to trade, merchant vessels are carrying Chinese exports or imports
    China won’t attack Australia – it has bought Australia
    China might turn a blind eye or provide support to Indonesia to invade Australia, which Australia has allowed carefully nurtured relations with our nearest neighbour to whither and deteriorate

  11. ABC reports that a climate scientist organization called “Climate Action Tracker” says that as per current pledges by countries to 2030 at COP26, the earth will warm to 2.4℃ by the end of the century much higher the Paris target of 1.5℃.
    They have their representative at Glasgow now.

  12. Granny Anny:

    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 4:14 pm

    [‘Mavis, further to your 3:12pm comment about the secret trial.

    My hope is that the Albanese Government holds a royal commission into the whole sordid affair with an emphasis on benefits gained by LNP members and their associates.’]

    Wholeheartedly agree. A secret trial is anathema to tenet that justice must be seen to be done. And the way they’ve hounded Collaery reeks of an ulterior motive. A RC is the only way to get to to the truth of the matter.

  13. Some criticisms starting to come in on Keating’s interview. The best thing is that he reminded us how MPs could speak in sentences with intelligence and knowledge, and he has opened the conversation on China, giving a different perspective than the current gov.

  14. ItzaDream

    saying, to the stammering Skynews dude, exactly that, namely they’re trying to make it all about us (Labor) because if it’s all about them, then there’s nothing to see. Emperor called out with no clothes. Six months of that, no wuckers.

    I tend to agree. Morrison doesn't have much credibility with most voters.

  15. “Now that is an incentive !
    .
    “Singapore to start charging Covid patients who are ‘unvaccinated by choice’”

    My wife and I were just discussing an appropriate size of a Medicare levy+ for the COVID un-vaxed.

  16. billie says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 4:26 pm

    PJK said that Taiwan considers itself to be Chinese, China considers Taiwan to be Chinese, there is a lot of trade between the 2, and Taiwanese own property in China, the status quo will remain unless Taiwan says its not Chinese (I got confused in his subtlety)
    ….
    =================================
    What Keating is on about here is that as long as the mainland is not forced to lose face, it will not be forced to invade Taiwan.
    Losing face would happen if Taiwan declared independence from China and/or if the US were to declare openly support for an independent Taiwan.
    This is the ‘red line’ referred to in the Global Times.
    It goes to why the US has a doctrine of ‘strategic ambiguity’ with respect to its willingness to defend Taiwan.

  17. ‘Ven says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 4:27 pm

    ABC reports that a climate scientist organization called “Climate Action Tracker” says that as per current pledges by countries to 2030 at COP26, the earth will warm to 2.4℃ by the end of the century much higher the Paris target of 1.5℃.
    They have their representative at Glasgow now.
    =================================
    There is no doubt about it. COP 26 is a catastrophe.

  18. poroti:

    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 4:23 pm

    [‘Mavis

    [‘Perhaps that figure is the dose shared between dog and owner ? Calm owner,calm dog’]

    I sometimes took 2mg of valium when I couldn’t sleep but ran out of them yonks ago. I now have 50 x 5mg – very tempting, as I’m taking Laughtong’s advice to get Boogie a thunder coat.

  19. poroti says:
    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 4:26 pm

    Boerwar at 4:20 pm

    Mavis says: at 4:17 pm
    ….
    I still think that up to 45mg is over the top.’
    ==================================
    Have any dogs complained?

    So far, not a peep.
    —————————–
    Cracker! I wonder if that dog owner’s face is evolving to look like that dog’s face?

  20. How low can Katie Allen sink in her support of the PM?

    Katie Allen MP
    @KatieAllenMP
    · Nov 9
    How good is a Higgins haircut?
    Did you spot the Prime Minister in Malvern?

    PM @ScottMorrisonMP
    The Malvern Barber Shop #auspol

  21. a r @ #2289 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 1:51 pm

    “Like throwing a handful of toothpicks at a mountain.”

    The same could be said of any “fleet” of 8-12 conventionally armed submarines. Doesn’t matter if they’re the current model, French diesel, French nuclear, or US nuclear. All equally useless in any serious military action against an opponent the size of China.

    Exactly. Which was why I was disappointed that Keating engaged in rhetorical deception to make his essentially meaningless point which only served to say to Australians that they should give up all hope of ever being able to resist China’s rise to top global dog. Instead, just get out of their way, lie back and think of Beijing.

    Keating, as was well-observed by Bill Birtles, seemed today to be a man commenting on China from the perspective of someone who was living in the past when he had a close association with that country and who hasn’t updated his perspective based upon contemporaneous Chinese behaviour.

    It truly appalled me that Keating could dismiss with a wave of the rhetorical hand the way China has employed facial recognition technology to monitor all of its citizens. He failed to mention the Social Credit system. He thought China’s expansion and consolidation of the coral atolls in the South China Sea was worthy of no more than a slap across the wrist with a limp diplomatic lettuce.

    He made no mention of how China is using financial handcuffs as a tool of control of poor countries that it extends loans to in order to build infrastructure, that China has calculated that those countries would find difficulty repaying, to build infrastructure in those countries that the Chinese own and control, as part of their ‘Belt and Road Initiative’.

    But what was worst of all was that Paul Keating had the audacity to falsely equate what the Chinese are doing and have done to the Uigher Muslims, to what the Indians are doing to Kashmiri Muslims! Not that I’ve seen evidence of, Paul. Not to mention the fact that, if India were so intent on malign actions towards its Muslim population, as China is, then why is it the case that the Muslim population of India is on track to become the largest religious demographic in that country? And where are the Muslim Concentration Camps in India?

    Nope, I’m done with Paul Keating. He has become too firmly embedded up China’s clacker to be able to see the wood for the trees. And it breaks my heart to say it.

  22. https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/11/05/save-the-date/comment-page-52/#comment-3743894

    And a quantity of drones has a quality all of its own

    I suppose there’s always a depressed trajectory decapitation shot by taking out Versailles on Lake Bloody Griffin with NBC means, though that’d be a first strike, and didn’t they promise … terrifying one to terrify a thousand and all that

    Let’s see if #SFM will do a pamphlet on standoff weaponry, TBMD, ballistic missiles, space lasers and civil defence RSN, then again he could just go the diplomatic/ trade route

    Jaw jaw, use them billions of taxpayer dollars for advancing Australia fair, instead of war war, scare campaigns etc

  23. Boerwar:

    Wednesday, November 10, 2021 at 4:20 pm

    [‘Have any dogs complained?’]

    I’m not sure but Boogie won’t complain as I’m not taking the vets advice – I’m astraphobic too.

  24. I have the greatest respect for Paul Keating and he, as a former PM, is very much entitled to put forward his views.

    His NPC appearance today was very timely and, as Morrison ramps up his election campaign rhetoric, the criticism by Keating that federal labor in general and Penny Wong in particular are “ in lock step” with government re AUKUS and the cancellation of the French submarine contract is a gift to Albanese.

    You can be sure that at some stage in the next weeks and months Morrison will start beating the drums of national security and “ red peril” under the bed to use against labor.

    The more the MSM turns up the noise around Keating and his criticism of the labor position the better for labor.

    Is the Keating criticism legitimate ? Does he have a point ? I will leave that for the usual combatants here to discuss. It is however good as gold for labor politically leading up to the election for the disengaged to hear above the noise that labor is in lockstep with the coalition on matters of national security. Good as gold.

  25. China is the largest economy- and, including because of the Pandemic, is powering ahead never to be caught

    China dominates

    Further, it is powered by 20% of the global population, a population which is upwardly mobile so consumption within its borders

    China has and will protect its trade routes to International markets, particularly its sea routes

    By comparison, Australia does not rank being invisible on the World stage except as a forelock tugger to the USA and to the UK neither of those Nations in the geographical region Australia is in

    Then Australia embraces capitalism – that the exclusive driver of society is free markets

    And, in support of capitalism, the government will reduce taxes and provide other incentives aka JOBkeeper (so showering money on Company Balance Sheets)

    Right wing ideology

    Small government

    Austerity delivers confidence and that confidence will trickle down

    The most effective form of regulation is self regulation

    But

    How have all the privatisations impacted society and the function of society, from our health system (so birth) to our Aged Care system and all points between?

    There is a place for capitalism, for private investment

    But then we see the response to private Investment aka Facebook, becoming too big and the Australian government responding as it did

    So capitalism and free markets producing an outcome a government wedded to capitalism and free markets finds challenging (because of what appears on their sites, attacking the government and government ideology)

    Simply, there always needs to be a balance, government representing its citizens when Balance Sheets become dangerous bed fellows

    China addresses the inequality introduced by capitalism whilst also embracing capitalism

    So no one gets so big that they cannot fail

    The contradiction in Australia is that we have bodies which review competition the question being from whose perspective?

    Citizens?

    Or Capital?

    The Pentecostal with the glass jaw has given us the answer today

    Government get out of the way – allow capital and risk takers thru (noting risk takers fail aka ABC Learning, Ansett, HIH and the raft of others some of which I bellied up myself as a banker)

    The future of the Nation is wedded to capitalism – exclusively

    And what happens when Capitalism fails courtesy of largesse and ego?

    Well we have seen the result, most recently with the GFC when the losses were capitalised at cost to citizens

    Sub prime lending and short selling

    Government must always remain active, very active

    By contribution and by effective audit

  26. lizzie @ #2390 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 4:29 pm

    Some criticisms starting to come in on Keating’s interview. The best thing is that he reminded us how MPs could speak in sentences with intelligence and knowledge, and he has opened the conversation on China, giving a different perspective than the current gov.

    Sorry lizzie but I found Keating tending towards unreconstructed verbal meandering at times where the point he was trying to make in answer to a journalist’s question was lost. At times he went on and on for no good or discernible reason. And never went near answering the question.

  27. doyley @ #2635 Wednesday, November 10th, 2021 – 4:48 pm

    It is however good as gold for labor politically leading up to the election for the disengaged to hear above the noise that labor is in lockstep with the coalition on matters of national security. Good as gold.

    Labor is in lockstep with the coalition on a lot more than just national security. Unlike some here, I don’t believe this is necessarily a good thing. This is why we need more independent voices in our parliament.

  28. China addresses the inequality introduced by capitalism whilst also embracing capitalism

    So no one gets so big that they cannot fail

    Absolute crap.

    The only reason a very large Chinese company which is looking likely to fail, doesn’t, is because of direct intervention of the state to prop it up.

  29. I was never a great fan of Keating PM, as he was too far to the right for me. However, we do need more voices other than the parroted slogans of the current government.

  30. “Singapore to start charging Covid patients who are ‘unvaccinated by choice”

    It’s a fantastic idea. Similarly, in the US, health insurance providers are considering charging higher premiums for non-vaccinated policy holders.

  31. C@t

    Today I’m concentrating more on the failure of “St Antony” to come up with the goods. Probably because I didn’t really believe in him. 😆

Comments Page 53 of 56
1 52 53 54 56

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *