Two new bits of federal polling news:
• Roy Morgan’s fortnightly poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36.5% (down one), Labor 35% (down one), Greens 13.5% (up two) and One Nation 3.5% (up half). The state breakdowns have Labor leading in New South Wales with 55.5% of the two-party vote (up two on the last poll for a swing of about 7.5% compared with the 2019 election), in Victoria with 56.5% (up half a point for a swing of about 3.5%), in Western Australia with 55% (steady, a swing of about 10.5%) and in Tasmania from a very small sample with 58% (up five, a swing of about 2%). The Coalition leads with 51.5% in both Queensland (down three-and-a-half points, a swing to Labor of about 7%) and, anomalously, South Australia (up six, a swing to the Coalition of about 2%). The poll was conducted over the past two weeks from a sample of 2778.
• Essential Research has at last come good with its occasional dump of voting intention data, providing results from its last nine fortnightly surveys. If the 6% undecided are removed from the equation, and the results are rounded to the nearest half a point, the primary votes convert to Coalition 39.5%, Labor 38.5%, Greens 10.5% and One Nation 3%. If preference flows from 2019 are used, this comes out at around 52-48 in favour of Labor. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has Labor on 49% and 45%, without allocating the 6% undecided. These numbers are Labor’s strongest over the period covered by the release, which goes back to the start of July.
I’ll finally get around to adding all of this, together with this week’s Resolve Strategic poll, to the BludgerTrack aggregate later today. Also:
• The new voter identification bill was introduced to parliament yesterday and can be viewed here. The Guardian reports Centre Alliance Senator Stirling Griff is “generally supportive”, which could give the government the vote it needs to get it through the Senate together with those of the two One Nation Senators. The report also says Pauline Hanson is claiming credit for the measure, saying she had made it a condition for her party’s support for government legislation lowering the threshold for political campaigners to lodge financial statements conditional. Antony Green’s account of the issue is naturally definitive; Peter Brent also offers his thoughts at Inside Story.
• Julie Owens, who has held the seat of Parramatta for Labor since 2004, has announced she will retire at the election. Joanne Vella of the Parramatta Advertiser reports that Julia Finn, who holds the state seat of Granville, is not ruling out seeking the nomination, potentially setting up yet another state by-election. Durga Owen, criminal lawyer and Western Sydney University lecturer, has confirmed her intention to run.
• Vince Connelly, Liberal member for the soon-to-be-abolished seat of Stirling and unsuccessful preselection candidate for the safe seat of Moore, has confirmed his intention to run for the far less attractive prospect of Cowan, held for Labor by Anne Aly on a post-redistribution margin of 0.9%.
• The Victorian state redistribution has been finalised, and you can read all about it here. I haven’t had time to look at it in any depth, but you can join in a discussion about it on the Victorian Resolve Strategic poll thread that went up yesterday.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• Andrew Constance has announced he will not resign from his New South Wales state seat of Bega until November 26, which, as Antony Green notes, means the by-election for the seat is unlikely to be held this year, and certainly not on December 4, which has been mooted as the date for a “super Saturday” of by-elections coinciding with the state’s local government elections. Indeed, it does not seem that any of the members who have announced their imminent departures has actually formally resigned yet.
• A third contender has emerged for the Liberal preselection in Willoughby to succeed Gladys Berejiklian in Kellie Sloane, former host of the Today Show and Seven Sunrise. The other two contenders are Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney and Menzies Research Centre executive general manager Tim James, although a senior Liberal quoted by James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph describes the latter as “not a viable option” since he could potentially lose the seat.
Zerlo,
There was an online meeting of alt-right “influencers” yesterday to coordinate a push back against Andrew’s Govt pandemic laws. I wouldn’t be surprised if the trolling is related to that.
I had a quick flip through the recording this morning and saw Monica Smit (RDA/UAP) was suggesting that that they “target” Labor Upper House MP’s because wtte “if one has a sniffly nose, the Labor will lose the vote”.
That comment is at roughly 44 minutes in.
https://rumble.com/voaz09-australian-influencers-join-forces-emergency-live-zoom-victorian-permanent-.html
bakunin says:
Friday, October 29, 2021 at 10:38 am
I had a quick flip through the recording this morning and saw Monica Smit (RDA/UAP) was suggesting that that they “target” Labor Upper House MP’s because wtte “if one has a sniffly nose, the Labor will lose the vote”.
__________
Biological terrorism?
Robertson is REALLY on the job now!
Robertson now asking Gladys does she have trouble understanding his questions ?
He should have been one of those journos at the Covid pressers subject to the word salad
It’s interesting to watch the ICAC Deputy Commissioner’s face as Berejiklian avoids answering Roberson’s questions.
Gladys caught out again
Berejiklian has been used for years to avoid at all costs the words yes and no in answers in parliament and press interviews.
Doesn’t work in this forum.
Is Gladys arguing that her job was to make sure that all her MPs demanded that pork promised was delivered?
I think Gladys is doing well at the moment at least.
He keeps trying to get her to make a stand on something but she’s ducking and weaving strongly.
Gladys is doing a lot of puffing her cheeks, is that a sign of anger being caught lying
I’ll fix it…
Here we go, Gladys “I don’t recall…” despite having the calls were she says she’ll ‘fix it’ for Daryl whingeing about his hospital funding.
I just spoke to Dom…
She’s a fixer. People like fixers, look at Pine. Being a fixer did him wonders.
Berejiklian: I don’t recall.
Counsel assisting: let me help you …
Plays tape.
Robertson is “assisting” Gladys’s lacks of recollection by way of subsequent playing of phone intercepts.
Wonder what Gladys said to Dom?
Whatever it was, the Wagga hospital went from $0 allocation to $142m..
And Daryl whinges about the $170m he wanted.
‘I spoke to Dom, and he just put it in…’
Lurker @ Friday, October 29, 2021 at 10:54 am
I am finding your comments on ICAC today almost as entertaining as ICAC itself. Like a fish on a hook! Please carry on! What a wonderful Friday 🙂
”
Lurkersays:
Friday, October 29, 2021 at 10:49 am
I think Gladys is doing well at the moment at least.
He keeps trying to get her to make a stand on something but she’s ducking and weaving strongly.
”
So “ducking and weaving strongly ” without answering a question by a politician is OK as per you or “doing well”?
Good to know.
[‘Counsel assisting the ICAC, Scott Robertson, asked Ms Berejiklian if she would have disclosed her former close personal relationship with former NSW Liberal MP Daryl Maguire to her colleagues if she had her time again.
“I didn’t feel it was of sufficient standard or sufficient significance to do that,” she said.
Asked if that meant she wouldn’t have disclosed it, Ms Berejiklian said: “I would not have.”
Ms Berejiklian has denied all wrongdoing and said in her resignation statement on October 1 that “in all the decisions I have ever made as a minister or as premier for NSW, my first consideration has always been the well-being and welfare of the people of this state”.
Mr Maguire has told the ICAC that the pair discussed marriage and potentially having a child during their secret relationship which started in 2015 and, at least as far as he was concerned, continued until shortly before September last year.’] – SMH.
This is really telling of her wilful ignorance of what constitutes a conflict.
NSW records 268 cases and two deaths, Vic records 1,656 and 10 deaths
Why doesn’t nath tell us how exciting IBAC was on branch stacking..
Griff says:
Friday, October 29, 2021 at 10:57 am
Lurker @ Friday, October 29, 2021 at 10:54 am
I am finding your comments on ICAC today almost as entertaining as ICAC itself. Like a fish on a hook! Please carry on! What a wonderful Friday
_______
I can’t see any criminality here at the moment. Just pork barrelling complicated by porking.
Nothing like the fraud uncovered at IBAC
Ouch.
I wonder how, after these revelations of favours, anyone can still think Berejiklian has been good for women smashing glass ceilings. Especially single women. She has not been a role model.
https://www.theshovel.com.au/2021/10/22/wilcannia-funding-cabinet-member/
‘Look, I just got you the $170m (for Wagga hospital)….
Just encouraged the grifter to go for more
She send him off to hassle Brad (Hazard?) for $500k for Tumut hospital
ICAC is gruesome viewing
I would hate to be in court with Scott Robertson questioning me.
Macguire is a very coercive boyfriend
One thing we can all agree on surely. McGuire’s a shitty boyfriend!
Steelydan @ #82 Friday, October 29th, 2021 – 7:21 am
I think you’ll find that Australia was lauded for the work they did behind the scenes in helping to bring together the agreement.
It seems to highlight the relative importance the Parties place on the issue.
In Estimates a couple of days before departing the department didn’t even know who was going.
Lurker @ #126 Friday, October 29th, 2021 – 10:32 am
Oh come on. She had agency ffs.
Mrs Sprocket says this is classic abusive relationship, narcissistic man dominating entrapped woman
I would hate to be in court any time.
Particularly when I’m being played taped phone calls like these.
“I don’t recall” doesn’t work so well
Natural historian, broadcaster and knight, Sir David Attenborough, has spoken out about the world’s inaction on climate change and he singled out a couple of countries in his plea. You guessed it, Australia is one of them.
https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2021/10/david-attenborough-climate-change-plan-australia/
Hmm.. Maybe Mr Perrottet has just earned a call up.
Simon Katich says:
Friday, October 29, 2021 at 11:03 am
Lurker @ #126 Friday, October 29th, 2021 – 10:32 am
One thing we can all agree on surely. McGuire’s a shitty boyfriend!
Oh come on. She had agency ffs.
____________
I mean the way he’s talking to her.
Mrs Sprocket says this is classic abusive relationship, narcissistic man dominating entrapped woman
______
I thought the same as I was listening to those intercepts.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Friday, October 29, 2021 at 10:36 am
“Education revolution – Billions spent no increase in academic outcomes. Enough said.”
BER was a stimulus package that worked. It delivered built infrastructure that kids to this day benefit from every day of their schooling. Including my 3 granddaughters who benefit from a new hall, library, performance space, purpose built class rooms, wifi and the like at Marrickville West Public School. before the rollout of BER? There was nothing. De-mountables, open air ash-felt assembly area and that’s it.
So you are saying the children had better facilities but their academic outcomes remained the same. I am glad they have better play areas though.
I am sure the Education Revolution was about academic outcomes
sprocket_ @ #129 Friday, October 29th, 2021 – 10:33 am
Is she talking about Tony Abbott (and Newscorp etc) v Julia Gillard?
I seem alone in not having sympathy for Berejiklian.
Simon Katich says:
Friday, October 29, 2021 at 11:06 am
I seem alone in not having sympathy for Berejiklian.
________
I don’t have much sympathy if any, just recognising an asshole when I see one.
Gladys floundering all over the place on conflict of interest
This QC should get Australian of the Year.
What a legend.
It’s impressive that he controls his smile. I’d look like such a smug shit if i were the one skewering corrupt pollies like this.
AE and Steelydan, BER plus DER were significant. If the LNP hadn’t defunded and starved the DER (school laptops, and all that went with it) , the transition to schooling from home during Covid would have drawn heavily on the lessons we teachers learned during that time.
Steelydan at 11:05 am
I wonder what comments you left about that at the time ? The Coalition were wall to wall slagging it off as a waste of money. I can’t see you not being part of that Coalition campaign against those darn socialists and their wasteful spending on ‘school halls’ and the like..
”
sprocket_says:
Friday, October 29, 2021 at 10:59 am
Why doesn’t nath tell us how exciting IBAC was on branch stacking..
”
But it was exiting. Otherwise, why would we have it?
NSW ICAC is a rolling advertisement for a Federal ICAC, has been for many years. This is exactly the kind of scrutiny that needs to be applied when there’s even a hint of dodgy dealings going on. No wonder the parties of the establishment have fought against one for so long. Now that they’ve buckled under the pressure, it is vital that a future Federal ICAC has real teeth and isn’t watered down by either Labor or the Coalition.
Gladys’ reputation is in tatters. Already was after her woeful handling of the Covid outbreak in Sydney. Some of the excuses that the right are making up for her are just nauseating.
A new member ………………………..well, very old member of the family has finally been given a name.Meet the bodacious bodoensis
.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/oct/28/human-species-homo-bodoensis-who-lived-500000-years-ago-is-named
And this is the ICAC that the press criticised just because their golden girl was caught up to her neck in it.How different it would have been if it had been a Labor premier like Andrews or McGowan.
“I mean the way he’s talking to her.”
***
Yeah I noticed that too. He sounds like massive sook TBH. That’s no excuse for Gladys but yeah he definitely comes across really badly in some of these phone convos.
Still cant see how Gladys saw anything in Maguire.
They had shared set of values.
Poroti, have you seen this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RzLJAa5X4Fo
Wonderful doco, and featuring a bevy of young female post graduate anthropologists.
Lurker says Friday, October 29, 2021 at 11:00 am
How much did the “fraud” at IBAC cost taxpayers? A few salaries perhaps (something that it appears also happened with the Libs, but that won’t be interdependently investigated).
How many tens of millions did this pork barrelling cost? That’s assuming there was no fraud associated with any of the activities at the clay shooting club.