Two new bits of federal polling news:
• Roy Morgan’s fortnightly poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36.5% (down one), Labor 35% (down one), Greens 13.5% (up two) and One Nation 3.5% (up half). The state breakdowns have Labor leading in New South Wales with 55.5% of the two-party vote (up two on the last poll for a swing of about 7.5% compared with the 2019 election), in Victoria with 56.5% (up half a point for a swing of about 3.5%), in Western Australia with 55% (steady, a swing of about 10.5%) and in Tasmania from a very small sample with 58% (up five, a swing of about 2%). The Coalition leads with 51.5% in both Queensland (down three-and-a-half points, a swing to Labor of about 7%) and, anomalously, South Australia (up six, a swing to the Coalition of about 2%). The poll was conducted over the past two weeks from a sample of 2778.
• Essential Research has at last come good with its occasional dump of voting intention data, providing results from its last nine fortnightly surveys. If the 6% undecided are removed from the equation, and the results are rounded to the nearest half a point, the primary votes convert to Coalition 39.5%, Labor 38.5%, Greens 10.5% and One Nation 3%. If preference flows from 2019 are used, this comes out at around 52-48 in favour of Labor. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has Labor on 49% and 45%, without allocating the 6% undecided. These numbers are Labor’s strongest over the period covered by the release, which goes back to the start of July.
I’ll finally get around to adding all of this, together with this week’s Resolve Strategic poll, to the BludgerTrack aggregate later today. Also:
• The new voter identification bill was introduced to parliament yesterday and can be viewed here. The Guardian reports Centre Alliance Senator Stirling Griff is “generally supportive”, which could give the government the vote it needs to get it through the Senate together with those of the two One Nation Senators. The report also says Pauline Hanson is claiming credit for the measure, saying she had made it a condition for her party’s support for government legislation lowering the threshold for political campaigners to lodge financial statements conditional. Antony Green’s account of the issue is naturally definitive; Peter Brent also offers his thoughts at Inside Story.
• Julie Owens, who has held the seat of Parramatta for Labor since 2004, has announced she will retire at the election. Joanne Vella of the Parramatta Advertiser reports that Julia Finn, who holds the state seat of Granville, is not ruling out seeking the nomination, potentially setting up yet another state by-election. Durga Owen, criminal lawyer and Western Sydney University lecturer, has confirmed her intention to run.
• Vince Connelly, Liberal member for the soon-to-be-abolished seat of Stirling and unsuccessful preselection candidate for the safe seat of Moore, has confirmed his intention to run for the far less attractive prospect of Cowan, held for Labor by Anne Aly on a post-redistribution margin of 0.9%.
• The Victorian state redistribution has been finalised, and you can read all about it here. I haven’t had time to look at it in any depth, but you can join in a discussion about it on the Victorian Resolve Strategic poll thread that went up yesterday.
New South Wales by-election latest:
• Andrew Constance has announced he will not resign from his New South Wales state seat of Bega until November 26, which, as Antony Green notes, means the by-election for the seat is unlikely to be held this year, and certainly not on December 4, which has been mooted as the date for a “super Saturday” of by-elections coinciding with the state’s local government elections. Indeed, it does not seem that any of the members who have announced their imminent departures has actually formally resigned yet.
• A third contender has emerged for the Liberal preselection in Willoughby to succeed Gladys Berejiklian in Kellie Sloane, former host of the Today Show and Seven Sunrise. The other two contenders are Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney and Menzies Research Centre executive general manager Tim James, although a senior Liberal quoted by James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph describes the latter as “not a viable option” since he could potentially lose the seat.
Melbourne this morning.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1453845003663392776
Good to see that at least one of Morrison’s spin team has proved their worth as they travel to Glasgow.
“The PM’s office says the Prime Minister was pleased to speak to the French President. “
The original Title of Morrison’s Manifesto.
Lots of social media trolls on twitter demanding that GG to sack the Dan Andrews government.
The free ride the NSW anti-vaxxers we’re going to get from 1 December on the (much refined) roadmap out looks like it may be scrapped.
Rather than a fixed date, it will rest on 95% double dose vaccination being achieved.
Dom and Dan have been talking, and don’t want these deluded freeloaders to stuff it for the majority
lizzie,
From what has been revealed of the conversation, Morrison only got to say “Good Evening Mr President”!
GG
😆
“Rather than a fixed date, it will rest on 95% double dose vaccination being achieved”
Best way to kick the holdouts over the line.
If it gets there at all, best NSW is three weeks away from single dose 95%. Much depends on the under 50 group as the plus 50s are close to 98% first dose.
95% double dose sounds like Xmas
Tim Smith has blamed Dan Andrews for Melbourne’s current turbulent weather.
Zerlo @ #55 Friday, October 29th, 2021 – 9:42 am
Of course they are also common in the Hun comments. One or two brave souls point out that there are no grounds for the Governor or Govenor General to act.
lizzie at 9:38 am
Well it is a big step up from refusing to accept phone calls. Wot progress ! 🙂
The ICAC website must be getting hammered… anyone able to connect?
Should we praise Taylor for his consistency? After the example of Matthias Cormann, it’s very hard not to be (even more) cynical about politics.
ICAC, yay!!!!!
Today will be a fun day. History always catches up.
Scomo is also trapped on a plane thinking about meeting a bunch of serious people who think he’s a fucking idiot, Also LNP numbers are tanking and there could be interest rate rises. (I think the last one is most likely to force an early election personally. )
The stream is up on the SMH site..
She looks worried, pursed lips..
ooooo, she’s doubling down form the outset. This is going to be a bloodbath.
“A smiling former NSW premier Gladys Berejiklian has arrived at the ICAC’s headquarters in Sydney. Her evidence is due to start at 10am today.”
Not a mask in sight. #killergladys
Here’s another two-faced pollie.
If you read to the end we find that corporate responsibility is not really a thing.
https://www.ndtv.com/offbeat/airplane-drops-human-waste-on-windsor-man-while-flying-over-his-garden-2582833
Don’t forget, Gladys is a well-practiced expert at deflection and denial and down is up.
UK Cartoons:
laughtong,
Is there any particular reason that you feel compelled to use a racial slur to refer to the Herald Sun?
Gladys is now changing her story
Still without power since around 6:30am.
Electrically powered roller shutters are great things until you need to raise the things when the power is off so you don’t have to rely on open doors or candles to provide light!
Mobile internet and battery power still allows for stuff to get done in the meantime 🙂
She’s doing the thing where she tries to interrupt the questioner to forcefully put her point of view and to put them on the back foot and deny them the ability to characterise things how THEY want.
my guess is that this so called “secret” liberal group of apparent environmental crusaders are engaging fairfax media in a pretty lame PR exercise.
The reality is, they’ll fall in line behind their leader’s criminal inaction on climate change – as they always do.
If they were actually serious about climate action, they would have quit the liberal party yonks ago.
A haggard Gladys is trying to redefine what relationships are.
The apologia Gladys is trying on about her probity in office is making me want to puke.
Lol. Deputy Commissioner asks Gladys to stop making speeches. 🙂
I think the ICAC livestream has died. My god when will Turnbull be in the dock!!!
Vensays:
Friday, October 29, 2021 at 8:58 am
”
Steelydansays:
Friday, October 29, 2021 at 8:28 am
Confessionssays:
Friday, October 29, 2021 at 7:51 am
writes Kevin Rudd who says Glasgow wants to hear Morrison talk about 2030.
I doubt world leaders really care about Australia, much less Morrison.
Didn’t Rudd take about 350 people to the Paris, How did that go
”
Rudd was neither PM at the time of ‘Paris agreement’ nor is he now.
My Bad it was the 2009 UN climate change Council in Copenhagen. Does not change the point.
Actually shows the big difference between the parties – Labor, heaps of money and bus loads of people and achieved buggar all.
Education revolution – Billions spent no increase in academic outcomes. Enough said.
Answer the question, don’t make speeches – says the Commish..
Good luck with that
With inflation moving up on latest figures, the rise in interest rates is about to begin. The Reserve meets on Tuesday and they move official rates.
Fixed rates rose marginally earlier this month and there are predictions of further 0.2 to 0.4% on these rates very soon. Fixed rates are not regulated by the Reserve.
As A Broker, I suggest people move to a fixed rate soon if you are concerned or interested. Downside is that with most Lenders you are restricted in the amount of extra you can put on your loan, you cannot access your re-draw during the fixed period and you can be hit with penalties if you decide to sell or re-finance during the fixed period.
We have a Lender, (Adelaide Bank) on our Panel who allow the first two but not the third of these risks.
I’d suggest you speak to your Lender or Broker to make sure it is the right move for you.
Did ‘all of Gladys’ colleagues’ have a key to her home?
Berejiklian is a live example of why the federal liberals will never agree to an integrity commission like ICAC.
She’s trying to make speeches and has been told twice to stop.
Gladys trying her best charm offensive at ICAC.
Rossmcg @ #87 Friday, October 29th, 2021 – 10:22 am
And won’t.
C@tmomma says:
Friday, October 29, 2021 at 10:10 am
Don’t forget, Gladys is a well-practiced expert at deflection and denial and down is up.
_____________
I wouldn’t put it past her to make up a sudden ailment for sympathy and attention when there is some heat on her.
”
Zerlosays:
Friday, October 29, 2021 at 9:42 am
Lots of social media trolls on twitter demanding that GG to sack the Dan Andrews government.
”
How can I put it mildly? Neither PB GG nor real GG can sack Andrews government. 🙂
It appears lot of social media trolls don’t know our Constitution.
Rossmcg @ #87 Friday, October 29th, 2021 – 10:22 am
So after the glorious day yesterday, today I wake to find it completely overcast and dull outside. Not only that, there is a faint but all too familiar smell of burning trees in the air… No idea where it’s coming from though as there are no fires listed anywhere near here. So muggy and humid too. Yucky day!
Beribinchicken is treating the Commissioner as if the Commissioner was her tame pet Speaker.
From the look on the Commissioner’s face just before they adjourned, she is about to get a rude awakening.
The West Australian’s “exclusive” of the day is that $1 billion will be spent at HMAS Stirling naval base south of Perth to support the basing of nuclear submarines there.
Given the submarines are just an idea and won’t be in the water till around 2040 I wouldn’t be holding my breath for one of the the thousands of jobs Defence Minister Dutton is promising.
But the media cheersquad swallows this stuff as eagerly as they quaff Chardonnay.
Jordy with a timely spray on Tory and MSM hypocrisy regarding ‘free speech’:
https://youtu.be/DBZYEoDbj6g
Steelydan says:
Friday, October 29, 2021 at 10:21 am…..
the big difference between the parties – Labor, heaps of money and bus loads of people and achieved buggar all.
Education revolution – Billions spent no increase in academic outcomes. Enough said.
In other words, the LNP celebrate ignorance and Labor believes in education. It shows. The LNP do what they can to siphon money out of education at every level. They really do not believe in education, despite it being the single best investment that a nation can make.
The LNP – home of the idiots.
Steely, carbon emissions fell after Labor’s price on carbon, and rose again after your mob scrapped it. Cormann is now calling for a price again, so who has achieved bugger all ?
Weather in the seat of Hasluck….glorious.
“Education revolution – Billions spent no increase in academic outcomes. Enough said.”
BER was a stimulus package that worked. It delivered built infrastructure that kids to this day benefit from every day of their schooling. Including my 3 granddaughters who benefit from a new hall, library, performance space, purpose built class rooms, wifi and the like at Marrickville West Public School. before the rollout of BER? There was nothing. De-mountables, open air ash-felt assembly area and that’s it.