Morgan poll, Essential Research voting intention and more

Two more weak sets of voting intention numbers for the government, plus the latest on voter identification and looming New South Wales state by-elections.

Two new bits of federal polling news:

• Roy Morgan’s fortnightly poll has Labor’s two-party lead out from 53-47 to 54-46, from primary votes of Coalition 36.5% (down one), Labor 35% (down one), Greens 13.5% (up two) and One Nation 3.5% (up half). The state breakdowns have Labor leading in New South Wales with 55.5% of the two-party vote (up two on the last poll for a swing of about 7.5% compared with the 2019 election), in Victoria with 56.5% (up half a point for a swing of about 3.5%), in Western Australia with 55% (steady, a swing of about 10.5%) and in Tasmania from a very small sample with 58% (up five, a swing of about 2%). The Coalition leads with 51.5% in both Queensland (down three-and-a-half points, a swing to Labor of about 7%) and, anomalously, South Australia (up six, a swing to the Coalition of about 2%). The poll was conducted over the past two weeks from a sample of 2778.

• Essential Research has at last come good with its occasional dump of voting intention data, providing results from its last nine fortnightly surveys. If the 6% undecided are removed from the equation, and the results are rounded to the nearest half a point, the primary votes convert to Coalition 39.5%, Labor 38.5%, Greens 10.5% and One Nation 3%. If preference flows from 2019 are used, this comes out at around 52-48 in favour of Labor. The pollster’s “2PP+” measure has Labor on 49% and 45%, without allocating the 6% undecided. These numbers are Labor’s strongest over the period covered by the release, which goes back to the start of July.

I’ll finally get around to adding all of this, together with this week’s Resolve Strategic poll, to the BludgerTrack aggregate later today. Also:

• The new voter identification bill was introduced to parliament yesterday and can be viewed here. The Guardian reports Centre Alliance Senator Stirling Griff is “generally supportive”, which could give the government the vote it needs to get it through the Senate together with those of the two One Nation Senators. The report also says Pauline Hanson is claiming credit for the measure, saying she had made it a condition for her party’s support for government legislation lowering the threshold for political campaigners to lodge financial statements conditional. Antony Green’s account of the issue is naturally definitive; Peter Brent also offers his thoughts at Inside Story.

• Julie Owens, who has held the seat of Parramatta for Labor since 2004, has announced she will retire at the election. Joanne Vella of the Parramatta Advertiser reports that Julia Finn, who holds the state seat of Granville, is not ruling out seeking the nomination, potentially setting up yet another state by-election. Durga Owen, criminal lawyer and Western Sydney University lecturer, has confirmed her intention to run.

• Vince Connelly, Liberal member for the soon-to-be-abolished seat of Stirling and unsuccessful preselection candidate for the safe seat of Moore, has confirmed his intention to run for the far less attractive prospect of Cowan, held for Labor by Anne Aly on a post-redistribution margin of 0.9%.

• The Victorian state redistribution has been finalised, and you can read all about it here. I haven’t had time to look at it in any depth, but you can join in a discussion about it on the Victorian Resolve Strategic poll thread that went up yesterday.

New South Wales by-election latest:

• Andrew Constance has announced he will not resign from his New South Wales state seat of Bega until November 26, which, as Antony Green notes, means the by-election for the seat is unlikely to be held this year, and certainly not on December 4, which has been mooted as the date for a “super Saturday” of by-elections coinciding with the state’s local government elections. Indeed, it does not seem that any of the members who have announced their imminent departures has actually formally resigned yet.

• A third contender has emerged for the Liberal preselection in Willoughby to succeed Gladys Berejiklian in Kellie Sloane, former host of the Today Show and Seven Sunrise. The other two contenders are Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney and Menzies Research Centre executive general manager Tim James, although a senior Liberal quoted by James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph describes the latter as “not a viable option” since he could potentially lose the seat.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,436 comments on “Morgan poll, Essential Research voting intention and more”

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  1. “Australia is not in the business of telling other Countries what to do”

    I wonder what Xi, the Chinese Premier and the leader of the economic powerhouse of the World, would say about that?

    Australia involves itself in Chinese domestic matters, does it not

    And threatens War on China over the status of Taiwan and “One China”

    Nothing the Pentecostal with the glass jaw says stands up to scrutiny

  2. Here goes the Prime Doofus again:

    “Our Australian way is not about taxes or heavy-handed regulation…”.

    [‘Rome: A split among the world’s biggest economies has thwarted a bid for stronger action on climate change ahead of a United Nations summit on Monday, with Prime Minister Scott Morrison joining others in warning against an outcome that would mandate action by other countries.

    Leaders from the 20 largest economies are struggling to agree on concrete measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions amid deep divisions on whether to phase out coal or set a 2050 deadline for a carbon-neutral economy.

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison: “We’re not in the business of telling other countries what they should be doing.”

    Mr Morrison used his final remarks to the G20 meeting in Rome on the weekend to tell other leaders that technology would provide the answer to climate change in the same way the world was changed by smartphones, silicon chips and COVID-19 vaccines.

    “All provide a lesson as to where we must now focus our attention as we address the real challenge of climate change,” he said.

    Meeting face-to-face for the first time in two years, many G20 leaders agreed on the need to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius but could not overcome objections from India, China, Russia and others on tougher targets and actions.

    Mr Morrison also rejected calls to set deadlines to phase out coal-fired power stations and coal mining or impose specific global goals to reduce methane emissions, fearing the impact on beef and dairy farmers and the wider agriculture sector.

    The Prime Minister endorsed the target of net zero emissions by 2050 in the days before he arrived at the G20 summit in Rome but argued against a global pact that set this target for others.’]

    And Crowe appears to be suffering from the Stockholm Syndrome again. Where’s the analysis? He must be overawed by travelling on Air Force One.

  3. Cud Chewer @ #1398 Sunday, October 31st, 2021 – 10:11 pm


    You gotta admit – its fun watching Facebook shoot itself in the foot..

    Yeah, shades of MySpace. Pity those men have so much money they can go on even if they make a catastrophic mistake.

    Did you know that 98 cents out of every dollar facebook makes comes from advertising? Ugh! Imagine ads piped directly into your cerebral cortex via an Oculus! I can think of nothing worse (well, a couple of things 😀 ).

  4. From “… may not even go to Glasgow”, Morrison now seems to have assumed the job of being Nobbler-In-Chief of of the COP26 talks.

    Technology alone will see us through this crisis China, Russia, India and Australia. No need to do anything.

    Oh, and thank you for the “Heroic” description of me and my motivations, Boris, but really… GAGF.

  5. It wasn’t just Smoko working to get Cormann to where he is. Albo, Wong and evidently other Labor players were totally onboard.
    Why would anyone expect any difference when it comes to supporting Australia’s gas led recovery and coal for decades to come.
    The disingenuous carping about the Libs by some, when Labor are totally in on the same game, would be amusing, if it wasn’t so much a part of Australia’s bipartisan climate BS.

    Cormann might even find his trying to defend Australian BS doesn’t stand up inside the OECD and EU.

    The inside story of how Cormann got his magic number

    Wherever Cormann went he carried a bundle of testimonials, including a letter from Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese. Albanese wrote that Cormann had earned the respect “not only of those who share his political views but also those who don’t”. “Mathias is a skilled negotiator with the ability to effectively engage across the political spectrum,” the Labor leader said.

    On the prospect of a Cormann win, Albanese wrote: “Australians would regard this as an achievement not just for Mathias but a proud recognition of our nation.”

    Albanese and Labor’s foreign affairs spokeswoman Penny Wong resisted pressure from some MPs to withdraw the opposition’s support after The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age reported in November that the government gave Cormann the RAAF jet to conduct his lobbying blitz through coronavirus-ravaged Europe.

  6. To have any effect, technology needs to
    a) work,
    b) be adopted/used, and
    c) replace less effective solutions/technologies.


  7. Cud Chewer @ #1407 Sunday, October 31st, 2021 – 10:36 pm


    You mean like a parasitic alien worm has invaded your brain and you wake up and vote Liberal? That kind of worse?

    Isn’t that what facebook does already? 😀

    No, I was thinking about my neighbour who gets drunk and plays 70s Middle of the Road music very, very loudly at 10pm at night in the middle of the week. 😆

  8. Quoll keeps coming here and telling Labor supporters that they (the Labor supporters) don’t actually want to do anything about AGW.

    Brilliant plan.

  9. The fact the 38 year old has broken the law by driving when over the legal limit (and causing damage) is what it is (and will play out in the Courts, so more publicity)

    What it does do is provide an act upon which he can be attacked politically

    Noting the attacks of this 38 year old on others over the course, including name calling

    So he can expect to receive what he has given

    And the act is an act of breaking the law

    So not party political nonsense

    Many will find the circumstances this 38 year old is now in funny

    In fact, very funny

    And in regards Andrew’s wife, she is not a MP, as I recall there was no allegation she was intoxicated and speed was not involved

    Unlike what appears the case in regards the wife of the athlete, who is a MP, was intoxicated and, from the images of the damage to a vehicle and the fence, may have been speeding

    And did I read the incident occurred during the afternoon?

    So a long lunch?

    As I say, many will be enjoying a good laugh

    And we will see what the electors of Kew make of it in due course

  10. “Mathias regarded Scott as emotional, narcissistic and untrustworthy and told me so regularly,” Mr Turnbull wrote.

    Maybe thats why Mathias ignored Morison???

  11. Nah, Cud, that’s too classy for my neighbour. Think Doobie Brothers, America, Rodriguez, Elton John, Glenn Campbell…

    I’ve heard them a bazillion times already! 😀

  12. Lizzie,
    Morrison isn’t a successful salesman, he’s been sacked a few times! Has a certain oily “charm” that appeals to blokes only it seems.

    And hopefully will be sacked again next year.

    Cormann must be a mercenary, simply a gun for hire to the highest bidder.

  13. [‘Vaccine rollout


    87.7% fully vaccinated; 93.6% first dose


    77.2% fully vaccinated; 88.2% first dose

    Of the estimated population aged 16 and over’] – SMH

  14. Has anyone here had the decency of setting up a Go Fund Me site for Tiny Tipsy Tim? Or contributing to one? Thought not.

    Selfish, pitiless bastards the lot of you. Shame!

    Not an ounce of humanity, no charity, no compassion.

    I’m turning to Sky After Dark to see if I can find there those qualities you cads so sorely lack.

  15. Morning all. Morrison and Taylor were on full spin overnight. As Mavis reported Morrison said taxes and regulation were not “the Australian Way”.

    Yet simultaneously. Taylor was saying our gas-led path to net zero by 2050 might cost more than $20 billion. Why? Because we are giving taxpayers money to coal and gas companies. Solar and wind could replace them for free, as SA has proven.

    Australian taxpayers will pay a high price for “technology not taxes”.

  16. Socrates @ #1432 Monday, November 1st, 2021 – 5:59 am

    Morning all. Morrison and Taylor were on full spin overnight. As Mavis reported Morrison said taxes and regulation were not “the Australian Way”.

    Yet simultaneously. Taylor was saying our gas-led path to net zero by 2050 might cost more than $20 billion. Why? Because we are giving taxpayers money to coal and gas companies. Solar and wind could replace them for free, as SA has proven.

    Australian taxpayers will pay a high price for “technology not taxes”.

    Australia will pay a high price for a gutless, supine, mild-mannered opposition.

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