The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.
Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:
• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.
• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.
• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.
courtney gould
@heyycourtt
· 3h
Labor is prepping for the possibility of a Dec 11 election. Anthony Albanese told caucus he believes the PM will call an election following his trip to Cop26 in Glasgow.
“We are prepared for that. We are ready for the campaign whenever it happens.” #auspol
The PM Mr Shouty McShoutface is on fire during question time.
It’s all full on election mode, a complete rehearsal for the election.
Nothing has changed.
The polling must be terrible. Child care bought forward, climate change in control and Labor bad. Reckless, reckless, reckless, Labor in turmoil!!!
They are seriously going to shout about their economic credentials!
I guess it will all come down to Murdoch and blanket advertising.
Barnaby is a modern day Atlas, a champion, a worker’s friend no doubt.
Kakuru
Exactly. How convenient.
I really do enjoy the theatre that is Australian politics. As much as some people are dismayed by the potshots and constant yelling in the Senate and the House, it’s part of our system and so much more fun to watch than boring US Congress proceedings.
I’m not allowed to boast, apparently, but didn’t my political Spidey Senses sniff out a Feel Good Jingle Bells election as being the most likely? 😀
Saw a vehicle parked outside woolies in town yesterday afternoon that was conspicuously marked with the Clay Target Shooting Association plus lots of sponsor logos such as Remington, Breda etc.
Never seen it in our town before ( conveniently located about 2 hrs from Wagga and another 2 or more from Sydney).
Was it someone going down to appear at the ICAC hearings? Who knows?
Will tears flow at the hearings?
Sir Henry Parkes says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 2:36 pm
Oh, there was an election and the ALP suffered what I believe is their worst defeat in the post-WWII period.
Observer,
You may well be the best placed person to comment upon the Offset Alpine case (if you can legally). Graham Richardson certainly seemed to be the beneficiary of a trail that went cold due to Swiss Banking laws. Whilst Rene Rivkin was ‘unlucky’ enough to have his case examined after the Swiss changed their transparency laws as I understand it.
Bridget Mckenzie has been getting a workout in senate QT the last two days.
PM on the slow drip today.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1450081243328962561
Kakuru says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 3:19 pm
““Supply was blocked.”
Yes. By the Opposition.”
Yes, that’s how democracy works.
Mavis @ #2687 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 3:17 pm
….to, ‘that would be a career-ending move.’
NSW vaccination numbers slowing (80,000) and Victoria peaking (100,000) and will probably top raw numbers for the next little while.
After the evidence in NSW ICAC so far , Gladys will get near federal politics
Political career is over
Kakuru @ #2677 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 3:03 pm
From the perspective of a heavy lean:
doyley @ #2672 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 2:59 pm
Yay! Albanese can have a solid legal foundation for taking action against Anthony Byrne now.
C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 3:40 pm
“Yay! Albanese can have a solid legal foundation for taking action against Anthony Byrne now.”
You’re funny.
This time last year Berejiklian was forced to admit she had in a secret love affair with the corrupt Maguire. At the time, I had some empathy for her. Having to admit to an affair in a public forum comes at a personal cost, made all the worse by her secretive nature.
In the period before her resignation, she informed journos that she wasn’t a person of interest to the ICAC. I thought at the time that she’s either naive or wasn’t aware of the gravity of the allegations against her, that on the face of it, she breached most crucially s.11 of the ICAC Act – the failure to report the corrupt conduct of Maguire, bearing in mind that it was she who signed off on the grants when they were still lovers.
I think she’s still of the view that she’s above the fray; she’s not, the evidence led thus far pointing to her precarious position. And although it’s hard to believe, she may have thought that the ICAC would not continue its investigation into her – eg, phone taps, surveillance, etc. The line of the questioning of her next week will provide an indication of where she stands.
Sceptic @ #2660 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 2:50 pm
Hear! Hear!
I have a friend who is an architect. Every building he designs uses reclaimed materials and energy saving solutions. Especially his own house. You just don’t see those houses highlighted on Grand Designs. They’re too small to be ‘Grand’ I suppose. 😐
Could someone remind Peta ‘It was never really a Carbon Tax’ Credlin, that ‘Net Zero by 2050’ isn’t politics but to do with saving the planet! Some things are above politics, Peta!
Stephen Jones MP
@StephenJonesMP
An Albanese Labor Government will put power back in people’s hands with community batteries. https://alp.org.au/policies/power_to_the_people #auspol #netzero
Wat Tyler @ #2631 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 2:23 pm
‘I get that you are not all there’.
Charming.
Would that I thought so much of myself that I could pontificate and be so derogatory towards people I only know from a politics blog.
‘a r says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 12:09 pm
Boerwar @ #2733 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 10:56 am
What are the thresholds for ‘sorting out’ here? Humans have survived some remarkable population bottlenecks in the past. There is no particular reason to believe that the species will not survive global warming.
I think the threshold is “environmentally sustainable”. We’ll be sorted out until the people who are left learn to live within what they can sustainably accomplish (which isn’t a fixed target). Extinction is a good deal past that and, yes, unlikely.’
——————————————–
It is in the nature of evolution that there is always an extinction rate. Other than that, everything is ‘sustainable’ until its not. The question here is what would that look like.
I missed this from earlier:
“Anthony Albanese needs to back these new laws this week for the safety of the community – or explain to all Australians why he will not.”
ABC NEWS
Immigration Minister Alex Hawke has reintroduced a bill allowing the government to cancel or refuse visas on character grounds, as the government attempts to wedge Labor on “national security”.
What that also be the Bill that would allow the government to expel Indigenous Australians from Australia?
‘Asha says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 12:13 pm
For someone apparently deeply concerned about climate change, Boerwar sure doesn’t seem to like it when anyone else starts publicly demanding action on climate change.’
————————————
Personal attack. Deflection.
My point is about the Royals trashing a governance tradition of political non-interference.
This tradition is, theoretically, one of the underpinnings of our constitutional monarchy.
Goll @ #2509 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 3:19 pm
Or, Labor could play a blinder.
Outwit, outsmart, out-think and outmaneuver the rabble occupying the government benches winning the elction with a handsome majority?
It could happen.
Couldn’t it?
Or does Scotty win.
Again.
DisplayName @ #2493 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 3:00 pm
Memo to Labor; from now on the money comes from the same place Josh and Scotty got it.
EXCLUSIVE
ANTHONY KLAN
NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet as Treasurer was responsible for the $5.5 million Wagga Wagga gun club grant, which was green-stamped despite it being “unusual” and the NSW Department of Sport not wanting “any involvement” in the project, according to internal NSW Government emails.
Documents from a cache released by the NSW Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) show that just weeks before the grant was awarded to the private Wagga Wagga gun club, in August 2017, NSW Government staff were concerned about the grant process – which needed to go to the “Treasurer” for approval.
“We need to ensure that the funding goes to public infrastructure, not to private assets on private land,” wrote Jenny Davis of Infrastructure NSW.
The July 8, 2017 email was sent to seven colleagues, spanning three NSW Government departments.
“The project is unusual,” Davis wrote.
“The ERC (Expenditure Review Committee) minute approved it before we had ever heard of it.
“Our recommendation doesn’t need to go back to ERC, but it does need the Treasurer to approve it.”
The $5.5m grant, which is at the heart of ICAC’s investigations, was approved just weeks later, in August 2017.
Perrottet was NSW Treasurer at the time
I do believe Buce wants a nuclear-powered tank with a British Royal in the driver’s seat.
I’ve lost track of the context of this argument about the royals, but I believe it’s only the Queen (head of state) who is required to remain publicly neutral. In any case, the UK’s position is that AGW is real and needs to be acted on (heck, it’s even a bipartisan position there) so as head of state of the UK that would be the position she is required to represent.
NBN pixie dust and fairies ads, now we are the greatest at dealing with climate ads. Political ads for the government funded by the taxpayers of Australia. I smell an election.
And I’m pretty sure supply was never blocked. From memory Malcolm didn’t have the guts to allow a vote.
Once Judas sacked Whitlam supply was passed.
The effect was the same.
My god, I haven’t laughed this hard in ages. You honestly believe yourself when you post things like this too, right?
I admit I crossed the line with the “not all there” remark but, let’s face it: if that was directed towards any Coalition supporter, Green supporter or anyone who dare say a thing wrong about Labor on this blog, you would be slapping your knees in laughter and joining in.
I’ve said enough on this topic because it frankly makes this place ugly when people have arguments like this. No doubt you will want to have the last word but this is all I am saying on it. I’ll just let anything further go through to the keeper. It’s too nice a day to waste on this sort of nonsense.
I could reply however…….. Lol
If think it is a positive for Labor federally that in Qld and WA opening up is going to come with restrictions we have previously only endured for short periods.
The LNP may get a bounce in NSW and Victoria if all goes well, but the two states where seats are needed to be won by Labor will be the two states where opening up is a net negative.
I assume she switches hats (crowns?) when she speaks as Queen of Australia :P.
Or maybe it depends on which country she’s standing on.
Morgan Victoria Labor:
Victorian ALP (58.5%) streaks ahead of L-NP (41.5%). Premier Daniel Andrews approval jumps 12% to 71%
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8568-roy-morgan-survey-on-voting-intention-and-approvals-in-victoria-november-12-2020-202011111454
Wait what, from the smh: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/more-than-half-the-grants-for-regional-areas-went-to-major-cities-auditor-general-20211019-p591a8.html
No wonder the Nats want a bribe!
I admit I crossed the line with the “not all there” remark but, let’s face it: if that was directed towards any Coalition supporter, Green supporter or anyone who dare say a thing wrong about Labor on this blog, you would be slapping your knees in laughter and joining in.
Sorry if it offends your sensibilities, Wat Tyler, but I simply wanted to not let this go through to the keeper. I have defended Greens and Liberal supporters on this blog from unjustified attack. So if you’d kindly stop blackguarding me without reference to evidence, I’d really appreciate it. Nice day outside in Adelaide, or not.
Read that Morgan poll and weep Ms Credlin.
DisplayName @ #2726 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 4:38 pm
They all live in major cities, actually!?! 😆
Interesting Victorian poll. Would be nice to see some SA state polling, considering the election that’s less than six months away.
I think we are heading towards minority government folks. I see the Libs losing 6 seats definite
Chisholm
Boothby
Swan
Pearce
Hasluck
Casey
I see them gaining probably 1 in Hunter
That leaves it at 71 Libs 74 Labor and then Labor get to 76 with Bandt and Wilkie! If it’s any less than that seat gain wise or if Libs pick up Patterson then Libs will probably return in a minority government.
Oh Dear they can’t keep up with the damn lies:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/fake-families-and-neighbourhood-spies-as-repression-of-uighurs-turns-personal-20211018-p5912p.html
Talking about Fake News.
Buce: “““Supply was blocked.”
Yes. By the Opposition.”
Yes, that’s how democracy works.”
Well, at least, that’s how the Australian Constitution works. The power of the Senate to deny supply is not one of the Constitution’s best features IMO and is arguably an anti-democratic feature.
However, the power is there in the Constitution and I very much doubt it can be changed through a referendum.
I agree with you that Kerr acted appropriately given the imminent threat to the many hundreds of thousands of Australians who depended directly or indirectly on the government for their wages and salaries. Whitlam wanted to keep playing a game of brinkmanship with Fraser in the hope that some Coalition senators would lose their nerve and cross the floor, but Kerr made the reasonable judgement that the risks of this were too great and decided that he had to act in order to ensure supply.
Kerr wished to make use the powers that Doc Evatt had identified as being available to the G-G in this sort of circumstance. Quite rightly, he sought advice about how to do this from others (Barwick and Mason) who were more learned about such constitutional matters.
Whitlam felt utterly betrayed by Kerr, who he saw as an “also ran” upon whom Whitlam had bestowed a massive failure by making him the G-G. Starting with his “Kerr’s Cur” comment, Gough consistently blamed Kerr for what happened rather than Fraser. Whitlam even reconciled with Fraser before the latter passed away.
But it was Fraser, not Kerr, who broke with convention by blocking supply, and thereby putting the
G-G in a near impossible position. That’s why I’ve always believed that, even though Fraser and his team had behaved like total scumbags and by rights should not have been rewarded for what they had done, they had successfully manoeuvred Kerr into a position in which he was forced to act as he did.
Vic poll is November 2020.
Shellbell @ #2845 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 4:49 pm
I think you mean Nov 2022
Very encouraging to see the Victorian government well in front despite everything.
That Morgan poll is from last year, is it not ?
Shellbell,
Too quick for me !
Anthony Klan
@Anthony_Klan
·
9m
EXCLUSIVENSW Premier Dominic Perrottet drawn into ICAC scandal, was responsible for $5.5m gun club grant. Approved just weeks after staff raised serious concerns that it was “unusual” – and NSW Office of Sport saying it wanted “no involvement”.
https://www.theklaxon.com.au/home/1-gaxaw