The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.
Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:
• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.
• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.
• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
Some of those calling for Daniel Andrews to be hauled before the anti-corruption commission, including commentators and politicians, have not produced any credible evidence of an abuse of public funds, argues investigative reporter Nick McKenzie. This is a worthwhile and informative contribution.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/demands-for-premier-to-face-ibac-grilling-don-t-stack-up-20211013-p58zoa.html
Sumeyya Ilanbey tells us about yesterday’s proceedings at Victoria’s ICAC.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/former-somyurek-staffer-to-give-evidence-on-third-day-of-ibac-hearings-20211013-p58zin.html
Niki Savva opines that the speaker who restored respect to the House will leave a gaping hole.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/speaker-who-restored-respect-to-the-house-will-leave-a-gaping-hole-20211013-p58ziw.html
David Crowe writes that Australia will need a surge in renewable power and a dramatic shift to electric cars to meet a call from the United Nations to slash greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, as Prime Minister Scott Morrison tries to quell fresh fears from the Nationals over a deal on climate change.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-will-need-surge-in-renewables-electric-vehicles-to-meet-un-emissions-goal-20211013-p58zpa.html
The Australian tells us that a crucial Nationals party room meeting on Sunday will determine whether the Coalition parties will fracture or unite over the net zero plan, which was discussed by cabinet for the first time on Wednesday as negotiations continued between the Prime Minister and Barnaby Joyce.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/nationals-issue-warning-on-energy-jobs-mirage/news-story/b876dbe278ce162c502bec959edfcb3d
Aaron Patrick looks at the “dubious morality” of privileged farmers seek special treatment in any climate deal.
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/privileged-farmers-seek-special-treatment-in-climate-deal-20211013-p58zlc
Phil Coorey reckons the Morrison government is likely to stop short of formally increasing its emissions reduction target for 2030, and instead adopt an upgraded projection, a move critics say would attract global criticism and deter investment. It would also avoid a vote on the floor of the House.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/government-mulls-2030-emissions-projection-rather-than-target-20211013-p58zhw
Decarbonisation is the biggest long-term economic adjustment Australia faces since the Hawke-Keating governments exposed the nation to global market forces in the 1980s, writes John Kehoe who says the global energy crunch suggests the rapid shift to weather-dependent renewables won’t necessarily be smooth for businesses, workers and consumers
https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/net-zero-emissions-will-shake-up-australia-s-economy-forever-20211011-p58yx4
Alan Kohler writes that it is good that Murdoch and the BCA are providing cover for Morrison. He says we should be grateful they have finally seen the light, but it’s hard not to go into the back yard and shout at the moon over their destructive, cynical, stupid, decades of intransigence.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/10/14/net-zero-murdoch-alan-kohler/
Meanwhile, Peter Credlin whines that the “PM’s switch to net zero leaves us in dark”.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/commentary/pms-switch-to-net-zero-leaves-us-indark/news-story/4b14f1b8ad9826294120c83f654adbda
The battle for net zero emissions is nearly over, but not the war. A new battle, to cut emissions deeply by 2030, is under way. Following hard behind, another battle is starting, to cut emissions of methane, explains Ralph Evans.
https://johnmenadue.com/after-the-battle-for-net-zero-emissions-more-climate-battles-are-coming/
NSW hydrogen joins the unstoppable energy revolution, yet it is missing in action from all these developments is the federal government. The costs of its failures on climate policy are set to mount as our trading partners move towards implementing carbon border tariffs, explains Nick Hutley.
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/nsw-hydrogen-joins-unstoppable-energy-revolution-yet-tariffs-pose-big-threat-while-we-lump-coal-20211013-p58zoy.html
Binoy Kampmark thinks we might be waking up to climate change dinosaurs.
https://theaimn.com/waking-up-to-climate-change-dinosaurs/
The NSW Coalition could be plunged further into minority government after the shock resignation of a fourth MP in a fortnight on the day former premier Mike Baird and Jobs Minister Stuart Ayres were named as witnesses in Gladys Berejiklian’s corruption inquiry, write Alexandra Smith and Lucy Cormack.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/perrottet-s-byelection-challenge-grows-as-another-liberal-mp-quits-20211013-p58zr8.html
NSW has called on the federal government to mandate COVID-19 vaccination for all healthcare workers nationally after frustrated doctors warned the exemption of GPs, dentists, pharmacists and other private health practitioners is putting patients at risk.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/massive-gap-calls-to-mandate-jabs-for-gps-pharmacists-dentists-20211013-p58zm4.html
Through careful management and planning, it would be possible for the Australian Government to take control of the COVID-19 pandemic, writes Professor John Quiggin.
https://independentaustralia.net/life/life-display/what-living-with-covid-would-really-mean-for-australia,15622
Lawyer and human rights activist Nyadol Nyuon explains how anti-vaxxers hide privilege behind the language of oppression.
https://www.theage.com.au/national/anti-vaxxers-hide-privilege-behind-language-of-oppression-20211013-p58zix.html
A difficult dismount from his COVID-zero ideal looms for McGowan, says Gareth Parker.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/a-difficult-dismount-from-his-covid-zero-ideal-looms-for-mcgowan-20211012-p58zd3.html
If Prime Minister Scott Morrison wants to weed out anonymous trolls on social media, he might want to start with his own government, writes Andrew P Street who gives us a brief history of the Coalition’s fake social media accounts.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/a-brief-history-of-the-coalitions-fake-social-media-accounts-,15618
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said sweeping powers given to state leaders during the COVID-19 crisis needed to ebb away as life returns to normal, and the government expected lockdowns in Australia’s two most-populous states to wipe 3 per cent or more off the economy in the September quarter, writes Ronald Mizen.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/extraordinary-state-powers-will-need-to-end-says-frydenberg-20211013-p58zla
Delta has hit Australia’s economy harder than any other OECD nation. But it’s not all bad news, explains Greg Jericho.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2021/oct/14/delta-has-hit-australias-economy-harder-than-any-other-oecd-nation-but-its-not-all-bad-news
Steven Marshall started the day by swallowing a fly. After that, things just got worse as rogue former Liberal MPs plotted humiliation of a different kind, writes David Penberthy. He says that this midnight coup was one of several concerted acts of guerrilla warfare at North Terrace on Tuesday where former Liberal conservatives also targeted their enemies in the moderate faction by trying to kill their queen.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/political-bastardry-revives-playbook-for-disaster-in-south-australia/news-story/cbf129c0068de59ce7d3b88d80d3c38c
Paul Starick says Premier Steven Marshall’s leadership is firmly under the microscope after a rash of defections and a late-night coup culminating in Liberal Party turncoat Dan Cregan being elevated to the speaker’s job with support from Labor and a crossbench which has been swelling in size.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/paul-starick-analysis-steven-marshall-is-enduring-his-worst-nightmare-as-liberal-leader/news-story/e0bf6ff76932275057fd1a0f4b3e5571
In this exceptional contribution, a doctor and husband of a woman who chose the timing of her death, Gavin Pattullo offers some facts on assisted dying.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/as-a-doctor-and-husband-of-a-woman-who-chose-the-timing-of-her-death-i-offer-some-facts-on-assisted-dying-20211013-p58zi5.html
Lisa Visentin and Nick Bonyhady report that universities face the prospect of further rules to protect academics’ free speech after Education Minister Alan Tudge raised concerns about a High Court decision upholding the sacking of marine physicist and climate change sceptic Peter Ridd by James Cook University.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/sacked-climate-sceptic-loses-high-court-case-20211013-p58zk2.html
The Conversation explains why the High Court ruled against Clive Palmer and what the judgment means.
https://theconversation.com/explainer-why-did-the-high-court-rule-against-clive-palmer-and-what-does-the-judgment-mean-169633
Officials in the Department of Defence told their superiors they were left distressed and mystified by Peter Dutton’s ban of special morning teas to mark an annual day in support of LGBTQI colleagues, with one staff member saying it had cemented their decision to quit.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/defence-emails-reveal-staff-shame-at-dutton-s-tone-deaf-idahobit-morning-tea-ban-20211013-p58zht.html
Following on from yesterday’s article, Shane Wright and Jennifer Duke tell us what changes to taxation arrangements economists are calling for.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/what-needs-to-be-done-to-fix-the-tax-system-20211004-p58x26.html
They add to this as they say death duty is politically unpopular, but Australia is one of only a handful of developed countries without one. As inequality rises, the case for a death tax is growing.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/why-experts-think-a-death-tax-should-be-re-introduced-20211006-p58xlp.html
Nationals Senate leader Bridget McKenzie has dismissed concerns Coalition seats disproportionately benefited from $300m of regional grants, saying all of the projects funded in the scheme were “valid” and “that’s how it goes”. McKenzie and former deputy prime minister Michael McCormack have both backed the fifth round of Building Better Regions Fund (BBRF) grants, amid concerns by Labor it has been used to “pork-barrel” Coalition and marginal seats.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/13/bridget-mckenzie-defends-regional-grants-that-disproportionately-benefited-coalition-seats
After agreeing to rein in his intensity and earnestness to his senior players, Justin Langer seems to have gone in the other direction, says Peter FitzSimons who thinks the end as Australian cricket coach is nigh for him.
https://www.smh.com.au/sport/in-all-earnestness-langer-is-a-law-unto-himself-and-the-end-is-nigh-20211013-p58zou.html
Water leaks, cracks and flawed fire safety systems: Sydney’s apartments are riddled with building defects, explain these contributors to The Conversation.
https://theconversation.com/water-leaks-cracks-and-flawed-fire-safety-systems-sydneys-apartments-are-riddled-with-building-defects-169526
Elizabeth Knight tells us that, now on the cusp of having come through the aviation industry’s most damaging black swan moment, Qantas is facing a staffing hangover – having to retrain at least 200 pilots to ready itself for flying.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/qantas-scrambles-to-retrain-pilots-as-it-plots-path-out-of-pandemic-20211013-p58zpx.html
But if you’re looking at flying soon, the price is going to be sky high.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/14/5000-return-sky-high-ticket-prices-hit-australians-holiday-hopes-as-airlines-prepare-for-takeoff
Commonwealth Bank chairman Catherine Livingstone has stared down environmental activists Market Forces, rejecting accusations the bank is not cutting fossil fuel-lending urgently enough and defending the need to keep funding oil and gas players committed to the transition to a cleaner economy, reports James Eyers.
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/cba-chairman-stares-down-activist-group-on-fossil-fuel-lending-20211013-p58zj7
Australia is still tied to British legal decisions from 1786. It should come as no surprise that the Uluru Statement of the Heart directly challenges Australia’s entrenched legal doctrine, writes Henry Reynolds.
https://johnmenadue.com/britains-enduring-stranglehold-on-australia/
Robert Reich thinks the US is experiencing some sort of general strike as, across the country, people are refusing to return to backbreaking or mind-numbing low-wage jobs.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/13/american-workers-general-strike-robert-reich
Eryk Bagshaw says that China’s president Xi is isolated from world leaders, just as his country – still pursuing COVID-zero – is from the world.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/trapped-in-his-bubble-xi-hasn-t-left-china-since-the-beginning-of-the-pandemic-20211012-p58zef.html
China has launched an investigation of its key financial institutions and their regulators in the midst of the financial crisis enveloping its property sector, explains Stephen Barthoomeusz.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/china-s-new-corruption-investigation-could-exacerbate-property-crisis-20211013-p58zln.html
Cartoon Corner
David Rowe
David Pope
Cathy Wilcox
Mark Knight
Matt Golding
Peter Broelman
Alan Moir
Andrew Dyson
Warren Brown
Leak
From the US
It looks like the Morrison government have decided that they need to feed some red meat to the base in the election campaign, lest they be seen as too soft and squishy by their more hard-arsed supporters:
FBI Director Chris Wray privately told Adam Schiff that he would resign if he ‘ever felt the need to do something that wasn’t right’ under Trump, book says
https://www-businessinsider-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.businessinsider.com/chris-wray-quit-if-trump-asked-for-something-that-wasnt-right-book-2021-10?amp=&_gsa=1&_js_v=a6&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASCAAgM%3D#amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&aoh=16341530115432&csi=0&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&share=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.businessinsider.com%2Fchris-wray-quit-if-trump-asked-for-something-that-wasnt-right-book-2021-10
Hughes, not Gilmore!
Gibbons for Hughes not Gilmore, I think William. Could be having Gail Giles-Gidney for Willoughby is creating too much g-force.
https://gailgg.com.au/about-mayor-gail/
Virtually a commie.
C@t
Morrison chose just the right ice-cold Liberal in Amanda Stoker for A-G.
”
Alan Kohler writes that it is good that Murdoch and the BCA are providing cover for Morrison. He says we should be grateful they have finally seen the light, but it’s hard not to go into the back yard and shout at the moon over their destructive, cynical, stupid, decades of intransigence.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/10/14/net-zero-murdoch-alan-kohler/
”
There was a lot discussion yesterday about whether Morrison would be bullshitting or not regarding Climate policy. Alan Kohler has set out some markers to assess whether Morrison is bullshitting or not.
Alan Kohler:
A non-policy (by Morrison government) would be an announcement that Australia is already on track for a 40 per cent reduction by 2030 and will easily make net zero by 2050, thanks to technology, plus the actions of the states and Australian businesses, for which the Prime Minister will take full credit. Ta da!
Oh, and to compensate for these non-efforts, $250 billion will be handed to the National Party to spend in Queensland and New South Wales so a few of them don’t cross the floor and blow up the Morrison majority of one.
A proper national climate change policy would be legislation that reduces the baselines of large-scale emitters each year so they have to cut emissions or buy more Australian Carbon Credit Units generated by those who do cut.
“Andrews can be held accountable for turning a blind eye to the suspected abuse of public resources by those in Labor’s various factions, including his own. This is especially so because Labor was put on notice by the media, especially the Herald Sun, and the Ombudsman between 2014 and 2018 about similar rorting”
________________
They are slow learners. You wonder how much they are going to have to pay back this time.
Was 388k for Red Shirts.
Andrews doesn’t run the tightest ship.
BTW, do you that we have ETS operating in this country, which was opposed by Greens in 2009?According to above Alan Kohler article
”
The spot price of ACCUs has already spiked to $30 a tonne with a tripling of trading volume in just three months, so emissions trading has already taken off in this country because so many companies are now trying to pacify their increasingly bolshy (on this subject) shareholders.
“
lizzie @ #NaN Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 8:09 am
Two women, actually. Michaelia Cash and Amanda Stoker. Not a caring bone in either of their bodies, and both so very, very White.
“However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
—————-
Surely that’s surprising – all of those seats should be in a competitive range, even Monaro based on history. It’s common for the major parties to sit out by-elections in safe seats, so I get why the NSW ALP would not bother with Willoughby. The downside risk – potentially having a poor by-election result – isn’t likely to have long term effects, while the potential to snare a seat in a finely balanced Parliament could have significant benefits. And who knows what might happen during the course of a by-election campaign that could produce a result that wasn’t expected at the outset.
”
If Prime Minister Scott Morrison wants to weed out anonymous trolls on social media, he might want to start with his own government, writes Andrew P Street who gives us a brief history of the Coalition’s fake social media accounts.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/a-brief-history-of-the-coalitions-fake-social-media-accounts-,15618
”
Like some accounts on PB? 🙂
Taylormade,
Your complaints have zero credibility. I haven’t seen Kevin Andrews or Michael Sukkar pay a price, monetary or otherwise, for being sprung having EOs in their offices working on recruiting new members to branch stack Liberal Party branches in Victoria.
So you can complain about Dan Andrews and Labor all you want, but please know your hypocrisy shines bright. 🙂
”
Steven Marshall started the day by swallowing a fly. After that, things just got worse as rogue former Liberal MPs plotted humiliation of a different kind, writes David Penberthy. He says that this midnight coup was one of several concerted acts of guerrilla warfare at North Terrace on Tuesday where former Liberal conservatives also targeted their enemies in the moderate faction by trying to kill their queen.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/political-bastardry-revives-playbook-for-disaster-in-south-australia/news-story/cbf129c0068de59ce7d3b88d80d3c38c
”
Cut the nose to spite the face!
If these Morgan results were repeated at a general election, Labor would win 4 seats in each of NSW, Vic and WA and 1 each in SA and Qld. That equates to 83 seats, though ‘the vibe’ tells me that’s way too ambitious. From what I’ve seen so far, Scrote would beat Albo with just his spin and slogans – because that’s all he’s got. Scrote is a substance-free zone. Also, from what I recall of Labor’s previous uninspiring federal campaigns, allow for a leakage of 2% from the start of the campaign. Our spinners just can’t seem to find line-and-length and keep getting belted.
I’d put money on just 4 seats – Swan, Pearce, Boothby and Chisholm with another 3 maybes – Longman, Hasluck and Higgins. Even if all 7 fall, it gives only a notional majority and doesn’t account for any losses. I have my doubts about Gilmore (2.6%) where Constance’s high profile could also influence next-door Eden-Monaro (0.6%) and for some reason I’m nervous about Lilley (0.8%). I hope I’m wrong, but I reckon a hung parliament beckons.
max
The main considerations with by elections is the money – contested campaigns in a by election are usually far more expensive than a normal campaign in the same seat.* So the maths might be that it’s better to save the money now so that you have it to spend in the general election.
*I was involved in a by election once where, at the election, we’d spent $5000 on the campaign. The by election cost $250k. It was a very important one, however, as it made the Labor government less dependant on cross benchers.
Could someone remind me: Was the National Plan for all states to open up at the same time when they reached 70 and 80% vaxxed, or was it intended as a race with winners and losers?
Yep. After nick McKenzie’s piece today.
THE AGE has incredibly cancelled its own suggestions Dan Andrews is corrupt and now says it’s misguided to suggest Andrews has questions to answer. The about-face follows false reports in The Age which triggered hysterical calls by media & opposition for Andrews to quit. #auspol
”
Paul Starick says Premier Steven Marshall’s leadership is firmly under the microscope after a rash of defections and a late-night coup culminating in Liberal Party turncoat Dan Cregan being elevated to the speaker’s job with support from Labor and a crossbench which has been swelling in size.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/opinion/paul-starick-analysis-steven-marshall-is-enduring-his-worst-nightmare-as-liberal-leader/news-story/e0bf6ff76932275057fd1a0f4b3e5571
”
Can we get some feedback/insight by resident SA PBers on this topic?
Lizzie
Victoria is following the road map of when state reaches 70 and 80 percent vaccinated of over 16 yo.
It is looking like Victoria will reach targets almost a week or two earlier.
Hence restrictions will be lifted sooner.
I think the question for SA is, will Marshall last until the election due next year?
Also, the question for SA voters is then, do they want to vote again for a Liberal Party that has been taken over by the hard line Conservatives?
On the covid front.
My aunt and cousin are doing okay. My uncle is in hospital. At this stage he is stable
Vic,
The Age realised they didn’t want to fight, and lose, another Defamation suit? 🙂
Taylormade says:
Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 8:13 am
“Andrews can be held accountable for turning a blind eye to the suspected abuse of public resources by those in Labor’s various factions, including his own. This is especially so because Labor was put on notice by the media, especially the Herald Sun, and the Ombudsman between 2014 and 2018 about similar rorting.
——————————-
I agree with that comment by Nick McKenzie broadly, although I don’t think Andrews or anyone else with a half a brain has any good reason to take any notice of the Herald Sun. He might as well take his riding instructions from the Mobster with the Lobster.
Maybe Andrews “turned a blind eye”. I’m not clear that has been shown. But as leader, he and other senior ALP figures are accountable at the least for weak as piss governance. They know the risk of this sort of rorting. They have a responsibility to have processes in place to stop it happening and make sure those processes are working.
They should expect that this failure will have political consequences. People who don’t want Matthew Guy to be Premier (I get that you might want that Taylormade which is your right) are entitled to sheet responsibility for that to Andrews and the leaders of the Victorian ALP.
”
Robert Reich thinks the US is experiencing some sort of general strike as, across the country, people are refusing to return to backbreaking or mind-numbing low-wage jobs.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/13/american-workers-general-strike-robert-reich
”
You don’t allow entry to those people who are ready to do those jobs by demonising them and yourself won’t do that. What a Conundrum.
So the 53/47 maintains for another poll
If you look at the Budget papers you will see that Frydenberg says the economic recovery plan is consistent with the government’s core values of lower taxes and containing the size of government, guaranteeing the provision of essential services and ensuring budget and balance sheet discipline
I would present this is contradictory and abject nonsense
Confirmed by the governments media attack dog, this morning 9 Entertainment carrying a headline “What needs to be done to fix the tax system” citing the nation’s “top economists”
So death duties, lifting the GST and more taxes on housing (to quote the headline)
The question is how is a government with this agenda elected?
When it goes to every election with tax cuts for the “lifters “ (so business and high net worth individuals) whilst attacking “leaners”?
And offers other tax measures to this same “lifters”cohort
And Negative Gearing, Franking Credits when you remit no tax as an individual, Trust arrangements and the raft of other tax advantage arrangements the accounting industry ferret out including using offshore arrangements (then including JOBkeeper) maintain and are increased
This may not be consumer politics
Including because of media bias
But where and when does the rubber hit the ground and the majority of voters, raising their families and paying off their mortgages and consumer loans in an enduring flat wages environment say enough is enough?
When the GST increases?
When your home, finally free of mortgage, is taxed?
When death duties are reintroduced?
The RBA’s bond buying to maintain liquidity in financial markets maintains, supporting the Cash Rate and in the absence of Federal government infrastructure spending (actual spending, not the promise in 10 years time whilst imploring the States to spend on infrastructure, so abdicating (apart from the rorts of sport and car park projects, most abandoned)
Interest rates will increase at some stage, and no doubt be Labor’s fault
Noting the last increases were in 2007 due to inflation introduced by the transmission of the proceeds of the Mining Boom Phase 1 to tax cuts (unless you got “a sandwich a week” by Vanstone’s description of the inequity of those tax cuts)
Media and vested interest get in the way of this narrative
Except we all live – and we have families
So we are all impacted
As with this virus
So what impact does this have on my narrative of the focus for the next election?
Is it (another) reason for “entrenched” at 53/47 or better?
So ideological bias – and stale ideological bias?
”
”
Brilliant.
Victoria
My question was, did the states originally agree to move together?
Good news about your relatives.
Can we get some feedback/insight by resident SA PBers on this topic?
______
Ven
I think the SA Liberals are going through the same problems as have other states with the push for power and influence by very “conservative” Christian members who have been worming their way into party ranks.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The coalition maneuvering over climate policy is indeed pathetic, with Murdoch in lockstep justifying them. At this point Newscorp employees occupations should be listed as “Liberal Party staffer”.
I have long thought that there is a coward hiding inside most bullies. In my view Peter Dutton is a textbook example of the type. He is happy to stop two Sri Lankan born schoolgirls having a normal life. This “tough” act is obviously to appeal to the bigoted anti-immigration crowd. But when it comes to stopping an actual threat to Australia’s sovereignty and resources, he and his bloated Border Force are missing in action.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-14/illegal-fishing-boat-influx-off-australian-mainland/100530120
Ven at 8:17 am
The argey bargey re ETS was about price. At the time the price had plummeted but expectations were that this was temporary. The Greens were calling for $30 a ton when the then current price was about $12(?)
zoomster says:
Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 8:25 am
max
The main considerations with by elections is the money – contested campaigns in a by election are usually far more expensive than a normal campaign in the same seat.* So the maths might be that it’s better to save the money now so that you have it to spend in the general election.
*I was involved in a by election once where, at the election, we’d spent $5000 on the campaign. The by election cost $250k. It was a very important one, however, as it made the Labor government less dependant on cross benchers.
———
Thanks Zoomster – yes that’s a likely explanation. Still as far as I recall, it’s unusual not to contest by-elections in seats that, on paper, appear to be in the realistically winnable range on a good day. And given the fine balance in the NSW Parliament, I wonder if these by-elections mightn’t be pretty strategic too – if not, as critical as the one you mentioned in Victoria. An additional seat for the ALP in the NSW Lower House would be pretty handy right now I imagine. However of course the NSW leadership will have a better take on the risks and benefits than anyone else. I just thought it was a surprising approach in historical terms.
Lizzie
That was my understanding. That the states would move together.
Fingers crossed re my relatives. From what I have been told, things can appear stable and turn for the worse very quickly.
C@tmommasays:
Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 8:30 am
I think the question for SA is, will Marshall last until the election due next year?
Also, the question for SA voters is then, do they want to vote again for a Liberal Party that has been taken over by the hard line Conservatives?
After 16 years of the ALP SA was on every measure health, education, employment, and of course the economy dead last on the Australian mainland beaten only by Tasmania…what was that 20 ALP with a green alliance for a couple of years. So much for socialists utopias. Even with the libs requiring over 53 odd % of the vote to win South Australians may give the Libs another go,
BK/Ven
This is purely anecdotal from one friend, but the Paradise church based far right clique have not given up their efforts to infiltrate the Liberal Party. The moderates seized power in the SA Liberals after the expense rorters were turfed in 2019. But their opponents have been regrouping to regain power since.
I assume the fundy right element in SA has given up on Cory Bernardi as a failed vehicle for their ambitions and are trying to dominate the Liberal Party itself, as in other states.
Victoria
You must be feeling very helpless.
Max.
As the Andrews government supplied IBAC with the terms of reference it is very hard to follow your convoluted logic.
Lizzie
“Phases triggered in a jurisdiction when the average vaccination rates across the nation have reached the threshold and that rate is achieved in a jurisdiction expressed as a
percentage of the eligible population (16+), based on the scientific modelling conducted for the COVID-19 Risk Analysis and Response Task Force”.
I suppose that means we all wait until Cth gets to 70% DD 16+ which will be next week and that then only states/territories who have passed the mark (ACT, Tas, NSW and probably Vic) can act. It does, reading further, appear discretionary
https://www.pm.gov.au/sites/default/files/media/national-plan-060821_0.pdf
I agree. Scotty could no more bring himself to work together with anyone else than he could ever show real leadership.
Shellbell
Thanks for the translation into English for me!
”
porotisays:
Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 8:40 am
Ven at 8:17 am
The argey bargey re ETS was about price. At the time the price had plummeted but expectations were that this was temporary. The Greens were calling for $30 a ton when the then current price was about $12(?)
”
poroti
According to Kohler, the current ETS price is $30. So Greens wish is granted. I still believe Greens were wrong in opposing that, which had a domino effect on many other political issues that resulted in Australia paying a very high price regards to Climate policy. And Australia is poorer for the path we have taken. The Green supporters bang on about what a great policy they devised with Gillard government. Where is that policy now. Thrown in the dustbin of history.
Why would Labor not run in Holsworthy?
We’ve seen swings of close to 30% in by-elections against long term dodgy governments.
The seat is in south west Sydney. Even Monaro might be worth a shot.
The other 2 definitely big misses.
“ After 16 years of the ALP SA was on every measure health, education, employment, and of course the economy dead last on the Australian mainland beaten only by Tasmania…”
This is mostly false and only partially true for economic growth. SA has lower population growth than other States and so lots of economic growth measures look bad. But per capita figures are much better.
SA comparative performance improved under Weatherall. Employment and investment were ahead of WA and Qld when the 2017 election was held. Housing affordability was excellent. Education performance was greatly improved (second for school retention) and health was average.
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1819/SSB-1718#_Toc527982166
By comparison when the Liberals left office in 2001 the State was dead last in most measures and stuck with the aftermath of the disastrous Brown/Olsen public asset sell-offs.
There’s always Donald Trump to distract us.
And just to add in regard media and bias
I terminated my subscription to 9 Entertainment
The reason was that contributions such as I have added to this site are censored by the moderators
And they attempt to present that they are “independent”
They are Coalition propaganda outlets, absent some token contributors (who are not afforded the headlines)
NSW 406 cases, 6 deaths.
Observer @ #27 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 8:34 am
‘Interest rates will increase at some stage, and no doubt be Labor’s fault’
For it to be Labor’s ‘fault’ they’d at least need to be in government to cop any blame.
They’re pretty safe in that regard for quite some time I reckon.
The obvious question for SA voters is, if they vote Liberal who will be premier?
Second question will be, will there be anything left to sell off? And will the promised Federal funds for submarine construction ever show up? Chris Pyne’s 2016 promises were not worth much.
Drongo:
Lilley should be a relative easy ALP retain, IMO. Anika Wells is a very active local member, she will have the sophomore surge on her side, and I’d be surprised if we don’t see decent swings to Labor across Brisbane in the next election.
Plus the LNP candidate this time around looks like he’s about 16. Probably should have stuck with that old tradie with the amazing hands.