The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.
Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:
• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.
• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.
• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.
Observer
The other side of the expense coin I referred to is that uncontested by elections still cost those participating big money (HtVs, just for starters, are quite expensive).
So by not running, you save money for the real campaign whilst letting the other side drain their resources in seats they’ve going to win anyway.
The other side of the coin is that by elections tie up the government whilst allowing the Opposition to roam free.
They also create at least the illusion of disruption/disunity – there are often preselection stoushes, disaffected locals, etc etc – which again, hurts your opponent and sets you up nicely for the real game (where you’re going to have to spend money contesting the seat anyway).
VicGovDH (@VicGovDH)
Reported yesterday: 2,297 new local cases and 0 cases acquired overseas.
– 37,611 vaccines administered
– 82,762 test results received
– Sadly, 11 people with COVID-19 have died
The NSW number have also just come through. The state recorded 406 new local cases and sadly six people infected with Covid-19 have died.
NSW Health (@NSWHealth)
NSW COVID-19 update – Thursday 14 October 2021
In the 24-hour reporting period to 8pm last night:
– 91.1% of people aged 16+ have had one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine
– 76.5% of people aged 16+ have had two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine
– 85,133 tests pic.twitter.com/gP60g0Lh70
The Hun whinge du jour today is;
Outdoor retail.
OK if they dont want to move things outside they can just wait less than two weeks.
Is retail so important in the scheme of things, when click and collect and online ordering have worked pretty well and kept many of the staff employed.
Yes I am keen to see the shops open again and OH wants a trip to Bunnings but really? The most important thing???
I see that the most corrupt government since Federation is seeking to set up a racist culture war crap racist dog whistle.
The most incompetent federal government since Federation can’t cobble together a climate change plan.
The most corrupt government since Federation touts pork barrelling as a moral good.
The most incompetent federal government since Federation is about to deliver a 3% fall in GDP for the September quarter. Why? Because Morrison and Berejiklian refused to take delta seriously fast enough.
The prime minister of the federal government that has done more damage to biodiversity than any other federal government since Federation is stacking up the extinction record, reducing support for the environment, downgrading the Environment Department and sending a worse-than-useless environment minister to COP 15.
The prime minister of the federal government that has done more to damage the fight against climate change than any other federal government since Federation has somehow or other turned the issue of the climate fight into a faceless secret mens business dirty political deal with the squalid Nats.
EVERY.SINGLE.THING.THEY.TOUCH.
Drongo @ #16 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 8:25 am
Don’t panic, there’ll be no hung parliament.
I must admit, however, I’m getting a bit nervous about the state of play in Queensland more broadly.
I’m confident that Labor will do pretty well in Brisbane and much of South-East Queensland, however I think Palazczsuk’s border policies – while the right call in my view – are starting to bite in other parts of the state, particularly in places like the FNQ, Gold Coast, and border communities. The latter are generally in very safe LNP seats, so perhaps won’t matter much in the end, but this may well help Entsch hold on in Leichhardt at least.
It’ll probably be business as usual in the parts of regional Queensland that don’t rely on tourism. I imagine there’s a lot of people in those areas, even hardcore conservatives, who are privately all for keeping the borders slammed shut, but at the same time, so much of the state has been insulated from the effects of Covid that the federal government is unlikely to cop much backlash for their mismanagement of the crisis either.
laughtong @ #14 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 9:07 am
I’m in Tasmania and heartily sick of going to Bunnings 🙂
Fair dinkum
As a born and bred South Australian, returning there for the TDU with our children is an eye opener and a testament to Dunstan and Labor, there no longer being GMH, Chrysler, Kelvinator, Simpson, Fauldings and the list goes on and on – noting Hills has survived manufacturing being outsourced to offshore
SA is an ageing population – some of whom I still know well
They continue to live most satisfying lives – and comfortable
Mind you increasing the GST, applying death duties and taxing the family home will change the equation!!
Asha @ #17 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 9:11 am
Little by little the awful reality is sinking in….
Mundo:
No, not really. I’m still cautiously optimistic. Just trying to be realistic too.
”
Aqualungsays:
Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 8:56 am
Why would Labor not run in Holsworthy?
We’ve seen swings of close to 30% in by-elections against long term dodgy governments.
The seat is in south west Sydney. Even Monaro might be worth a shot.
The other 2 definitely big misses.
”
Holsworthy was Labor seat till 2011 state election.
Drongo,
In your calcs, did you include the notional ALP seat that Victoria has picked up at the expense of WA? IMO, the LNP is going to have massive problems in Victoria and it could end up the reverse of what WA and Queensland currently are. Also, I’d wait to see what comes out of the Berejiklian ICAC hearings for NSW. There was a reason she walked away from everything and everything is now going to come out. Whatever electoral benefits there were for the LNP in that state, they were because of Berejiklian and definitely not Morrison. If she goes guts up, then the LNP vote will suffer.
Bloody Hell.
Sutton said yesterday we were on the downward slope.
How can we open up with these numbers.
A few days ago a few of us questioned the usefulness of various implementations of digital vaccination certificates. I recall sprocket’s opinion that there would be fewer fraudulent certificates than there are people voting twice. Setting aside that those two things aren’t really related, or have the same potential to cause harm and even death, it was a stated opinion, and one I’ve been considering.
This morning I saw this headline,
which goes on to report:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-13/woman-charged-over-alleged-fake-covid-medical-exemptions/100514634
These are not fake vaccination certificates, but are fake vaccine and mask exemption certificates, arguably an even broader more dangerous fraud. And it represents 600 people prepared to bypass the government’s public health requirements, including using the government’s digital vaccination certificate. Will it be that because of careless and misunderstood and hasty reliance on technology we will end up with useless certificates? It might become a bit like the discredited covid safe app.
On a side note, the article also implies that we’ve also started a different type of contact tracing effort.
When extreme religion has successfully taken over one of the political parties should religion affiliation be off the table for political debates?
I cannot comprehend why Labor would not run in Holsworthy, Bega or Monaro, though I can understand them not running in Wiloughby.
Can anyone offer any insight here at all?
Greensborough Growler @ #45 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 8:59 am
Bring it on!
All that Gerrymandering and Voter Suppression will have been for nought. 😀
UK Cartoons:
Cartoonists at the launch of Britain’s Best Political Cartoons 2021
Cartoonists Guy Venables and Brian Adcock give each other a farewell embrace after the dinner.
I encourage all Republicans to follow Trump’s advice here. That’ll show the Democrats!
Taylormade
You spend you time supporting the Liberals, is it a religious affiliation or is there a political position that you support. If the latter what exactly is the political position that you believe is worth supporting?
In the past I didn’t agree with the Liberals political position but I could understand why people supported it. I am now at a complete loss.
Delta @ #68 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 9:28 am
As zoomster and Observer have pointed out, why should Labor waste a ton of money on these by-elections for a Pyrrhic victory or two? Better to contest all of the seats at the next NSW State election with a broadly-based message and candidates who can run not simply arguing for election at a point in time where it may not be advantageous for Labor.
Besides, as people have pointed out, Bega is not really marginal. Holsworthy may have changed demographically in such a way that supports the Liberal Party, I don’t know. And people from the ACT would know better about Monaro/Queanbeyan. 🙂
Ven
The $30 ‘demand’ I mentioned was back in the Rudd years. So after all these years the number 30 is still popular 🙂
Early in the pandeemic, both Andrews and Sutton said there was no point in blaming anyone, we just had to deal with the results.
I’m less charitable, I would like to sheet home blame to the ant-vaxxers, the lockdown protesters, and the Murdoch inspired press.
Taylormade, Sutton made no such assertion. Stop making things up.
Greensborough Growler @ #45 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 7:59 am
So effectively Trump is telling his supporters to not bother voting.
clem attle at 9:45 am
Rather than making things up, evidence of the consumption of Murdoch media ?
It’s a worry that NSW Labor is considering not contesting any of the 4 by-elections coming up. Willoughby is certainly understandable, and maybe Monaro, they are both very safe LNP seats. But the concern with not contesting Monaro or Bega is a possible flow-on to the federal seat of Eden-Monaro. It’s critical for Labor to avoid losses in NSW if they are to form the next Federal government! Will failure to run Labor candidates in Monaro and Bega potentially hurt the Labor brand in Eden-Monaro?
Holsworthy is apparently on 6% after the recent redistribution, but the western end of it was in a lockdown LGA, so maybe there is some anti-government sentiment there to be tapped? It’s exactly the kind of outer suburban electorate that Labor needs to win back, if they are to have any chance of getting back into government anytime soon.
Maybe they just don’t have the money to spend on these by elections. Or maybe internal polling looks grim. Either way, it’s a worry!
C@tmomma, why would they be “pyrrhic victories”? Could Labor not potentially win government if enough of these by-elections go the wrong way for the libs/nats?
Also, Parramatta Moderate makes a good point about potential damage to Labor’s chances at the general elections in these seats.
Labor should run…but failure in the Hunter cost Jodi MacKay her leadership. So Minns appears to be aiming at avoiding defeats that might hurt him. At this point, he appears to be leading the retreat. Poor effort really.
Delta @ #80 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 10:01 am
Delta,
I made the point that it would likely be better for NSW Labor to hold their cards close to their chest and build up to the scheduled NSW State election in 2023. That way they would not be seen as wreckers who brought down a government because they could, and they would have to go to the scheduled state election anyway, and the electorate, so sick of a decade’s worth of destabilisation politics, may take it upon themselves to punish Labor for it.
These are just my views and not the views of head office but I honestly believe they would rather give Dominic Perrottet enough rope then win government legitimately.
Also, if they took over now it would overshadow ICAC. So the timing doesn’t seem right to me.
PM
As I’ve said, by elections have downsides beyond the money aspect.
Firstly, people really don’t like politics. They don’t like voting. Not having to bother about making decisions about who to vote for in a by election isn’t actually a downside.
Secondly, the political landscape is littered with by elections won by the Opposition which were lost at the general election – sometimes within very short time frames. So there’s no definable actual benefit in the longer term to winning a by election.
Thirdly, there is some differentiation in voters’ minds between State and Federal elections – otherwise we’d never have the situation where there majority of States were held by one party and the Federal government being of a different persuasion.
Even if Labor won all four, there’s no guarantee that they would get to roll the Libs. The margin is larger than that, and the reliance would be on indies going for change over stability (however unstable the stability might be). Indies are very nervous about being seen to overthrow governments – the lesson from Windsor and Oakeshott was that backing Labor lost them their seats, and subsequent middle of the road indies have been very careful to emphasise their support for a Liberal government (Steggall) or that they will support whoever holds the majority of seats in the House (Haines).
If it was the case that winning a seat would definitely see Labor in power, then it might be worth throwing good money at one. But it won’t, and there are downsides, which is why the majority of by elections throughout our history have been uncontested.
Not running in by elections is the norm, rather than the exception, so the circumstances need to be exceptional to justify it.
Good Morning
In NSW for Labor thats the religious No to equal marriage vote area. It could be very much in Labor’s favour not to make itself the story and let hubris build for the LNP. After all NSW has fixed election terms.
Its also a strong anti vaxxer area as Craig Kelly sees that as being a political advantage.
So the cost really could not be politically great in not running. I say that as someone who thinks parties should run in every seat.
Paramatta Moderate,
Not contesting by-elections have become something both sides do now when their internal polling tells them not to. What may seem winnable to you and I may not be that way to the hardheads whose job it is to figure these things out.
As far as Eden-Monaro in the upcoming federal election is concerned, I think zoomster goes into there to teach and may have a better idea of the mood on the ground than I do. 🙂
z,
Many seats would not be contested in a General Election save for the need to get the vote out for the Senate or Legislative Council.
”
BKsays:
Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 8:37 am
Can we get some feedback/insight by resident SA PBers on this topic?
______
Ven
I think the SA Liberals are going through the same problems as have other states with the push for power and influence by very “conservative” Christian members who have been worming their way into party ranks.
”
Maybe they are emboldened after the ascension of Morrison and Dom P to top job even without majority “conservative” Christian members in the parliamentary party of Federal and State legislatures.
lizzie @ #75 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 9:41 am
You left out the GF/Engagement Partiers who cock a snook at the government getting in the way of them having a good time. 🙄
Greensborough Growler @ #86 Thursday, October 14th, 2021 – 10:16 am
Yup. No vote for the NSW Upper House either until the scheduled state election.
That WOULD be interesting, wouldn’t it?
A Democrat astroturf/false-flag campaign, encouraging Republicans to protest against rigged elections by not participating in them.
It’s not even really dishonest, is it? If you reckon the process is bodgy, you shouldn’t be part of it.
What’s good for the goose is good for the gander. 😉
”
Socratessays:
Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 9:02 am
The obvious question for SA voters is, if they vote Liberal who will be premier?
Second question will be, will there be anything left to sell off? And will the promised Federal funds for submarine construction ever show up? Chris Pyne’s 2016 promises were not worth much.
”
They were worth as much as if they are written on toilet paper
I have a nickname for Trump, based on his non-stop whining, Biggest Loser Of The US, BLOTUS. This was said about Trump a short time ago.
https://www.palmerreport.com/analysis/donald-trump-just-opened-his-mouth-and-handed-us-a-huge-gift/42007/
Whining is a lazy way to make yourself feel better after losing. You get to say, “I told you so.” But you then too get to wonder why no-one likes you. Morrison has stuffed up in countless ways and annoyed demographics across the country. He is vulnerable.
The Libs in SA have been split asunder since at least the 60s. I’d suspect that the issue then is the issue now. The basic ideological differences between moderates and Conservatives. This becomes more acute when the Libs are in power when there are basic internal conflicts on how the prizes of Government are divvied up.
BB
What Astro turfing? I don’t think Trump is a Democrat plant. It’s scarily his Republican party.
Thanks Zoomster, I understand all those points you make. I haven’t seen any NSW polling data for a long time, but I’d suspect Perrottet will get a honeymoon, plus all 4 seats are moderately to extremely safe for the LNP, I don’t think there is much chance at all that Labor would actually win any of these seats. It’s more that it’s not a good look for Labor not to stand candidates, and that may do some damage to the Labor brand in NSW. Cheers!
”
zoomstersays:
Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 9:05 am
Observer
The other side of the expense coin I referred to is that uncontested by elections still cost those participating big money (HtVs, just for starters, are quite expensive).
So by not running, you save money for the real campaign whilst letting the other side drain their resources in seats they’ve going to win anyway.
The other side of the coin is that by elections tie up the government whilst allowing the Opposition to roam free.
They also create at least the illusion of disruption/disunity – there are often preselection stoushes, disaffected locals, etc etc – which again, hurts your opponent and sets you up nicely for the real game (where you’re going to have to spend money contesting the seat anyway).
”
IMO, any party that aspires to be in power should give the electorate the option to vote differently especially when the ruling party is in trouble.
LR,
Fair point. But the broader agenda might be to delegitimise voting and Democracy. They might then encourage people to take to the streets because the system is rigged. etc.
The sort off thing a bunch of right wing Fascists might prommote.
”
Holdenhillbillysays:
Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 9:05 am
VicGovDH (@VicGovDH)
Reported yesterday: 2,297 new local cases and 0 cases acquired overseas.
– 37,611 vaccines administered
– 82,762 test results received
– Sadly, 11 people with COVID-19 have died
”
Really really bad.
Parramatta Moderate says:
Thursday, October 14, 2021 at 9:51 am
Holsworthy is apparently on 6% after the recent redistribution, but the western end of it was in a lockdown LGA, so maybe there is some anti-government sentiment there to be tapped?
—————-
The by-election would be held on the existing boundaries though with the current, more competitive margin. However from the point of view of the consumption of resources argument, putting a lot of time and effort into winning a by-election in a seat that will be harder to win post redistribution, is a relevant consideration. It is ultimately a pragmatic judgment I guess as Zoomster flagged: do you spend finite time and money on something with (presumably*) a low probability of success but a potentially high pay off.
*I don’t know enough about it to assess the probability of success myself, but I’m guessing that if the NSW ALP felt it had a good chance of winning these by-elections it would not think twice about contesting them.