Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly federal poll from Morgan, plus updates on looming state by-elections in New South Wales, which could potentially be forfeited by Labor.

The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.

Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:

• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.

• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.

• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,090 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Rikalisays:
    Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 11:06 pm

    “Just imagine Michaelia Cash being allowed to “correct” judgements of the High Court!”

    WTF? You don’t think a woman could do it?

  2. Observersays:
    Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 11:12 pm
    I assume that is in relation to a post of mine, so what’s your point ?
    Why would Marshall be writing a letter outlining his concerns ?
    Is there any difference between fundraising for branch stacking or say fundraising for campaign advertising ?

  3. Bucephalus

    WTF? You don’t think a woman could do it?
    Her sex is irrelevant.
    Imagine goving any politician the power to “correct” Court judgements.

    But the modern semi-facscist can’t accept the seperation of powers.

  4. Do I recall a female public servant, in tears after being thrown under the proverbial bus in the Ruby Princess Inquiry

    Morrison offered sympathy

    But the Feds refused to front the Inquiry as I recall

  5. “We are Australia’s sovereign wealth fund, responsible for investing for the benefit of future generations of Australians. We were established in 2006 to strengthen the Commonwealth’s long-term financial position and today manage six public asset funds.”

  6. Rikali says:
    Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 11:24 pm

    If you read it you would see that it required legislation so it isn’t one politician but the Parliament passing law – which is what they are meant to do. Judge made law isn’t infallible and should be able to be overridden by the will of the voters expressed through Parliament.

  7. Scepticsays:
    Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 10:31 pm

    “I think Gladys will be dead lucky not to be subjected to criminal proceedings.”

    For doing what? Being a Liberal?

    A touch of the Pell witch hunt going on here.

    Perhaps you should apply the Monty Python Witch Test. You know it works.

  8. To fund the contingent liability being the defined pension entitlements of the Public Service

    And instead of having cash invested for the future, there is plenty which could be invested in in today’s dollars which will benefit future generations

    So why leave it in the bank?


    A total contradiction

    In fact, they are not Liberal, as Malcolm Fraser told us

  9. CC
    The artist is amazingly talented. Thanks for linking. I had to rewatch some of the “colouring” to admire the skill.

    But since this is a political blog, I also wonder at the parallels, or is it some other artistic or literary device, where what at first sight looks like a charming and fun character reveals itself to be a screaming horror.

  10. Observer

    What are you talking about?

    “ Portfolio update at 30 June 2021
    • Future Fund earns $35.7bn for the year, growing to $196.8bn at 30 June 2021
    • Annual return of 22.2% is the strongest in the Fund’s history
    • 10-year return of 10.1% pa against a target of 6.1% pa
    • $136.3bn in investment earnings on $60.5bn of capital contributed by the Government”

    They aren’t leaving it in the bank. It is invested

  11. Rikali @ #3043 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 8:06 pm

    Are formerly conservative parties in the English speaking world sliding into fascism?

    Now Dominic Raab, Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice and Deputy Prime Minister in the UK wants to:

    Legislate for “A ‘mechanism’ to allow the government to introduce ad hoc legislation to correct court judgments that ministers believe are ‘incorrect’.

    This will form part of proposals to reform the Human Rights Act, the lord chancellor has revealed.

    Just imagine Michaelia Cash being allowed to “correct” judgements of the High Court!

    What’s the problem?

    Isn’t this one of the functions of Parliaments?

    Wasn’t that exactly what Labor were trying to do with it’s Malaysia Solution legislation?

  12. Kezza,
    My take on your experience with the Dutch boys’ dislike of the National Anthem is that it may not be so much ‘anti- Queen or English’, but rather a distaste for the obsequious reaction , almost deification of , British royalty at that time.
    The Royals in Holland were /are treated with a great deal of public affection, as they are in the Scandinavian countries , but in a much more egalitarian manner.
    There also may have been an unconscious resentment that if they were brought here as kids(they had no say in leaving their homeland) they had to stand for a ‘foreign’ queen. While most new immigrants go through the polite motions of singing anthems, etc., I don’t know any who identify with British Royalty unless they were part of the Commonwealth.
    Those boys may just have been showing solidarity to their roots, plus enjoying the notoriety of rebelling.

  13. Dan Andrews knows how to hit people where it hurts 🙂

    Premier Daniel Andrews said unvaccinated Victorians would not be able to enjoy the freedoms granted to vaccinated people until well into next year, and would likely be excluded from the Australian Formula One Grand Prix.

  14. C@t:

    Just further to the Rudd/McBain forum, I’ve decided to instead attend tonight’s virtual town hall with Tanya Plibersek and Chris Bowen talking about Labor’s climate change direction.

  15. C@tmomma @ #3075 Wednesday, October 20th, 2021 – 6:04 am

    Dan Andrews knows how to hit people where it hurts 🙂

    Premier Daniel Andrews said unvaccinated Victorians would not be able to enjoy the freedoms granted to vaccinated people until well into next year, and would likely be excluded from the Australian Formula One Grand Prix.

    As long as it’s enforced. I’ve had mixed experiences with Sydney’s supposed different ‘freedoms’ for vaxxed and unvaxxed with some outlets not bothering to check people’s certificates when they enter.

  16. A couple of things on here –

    1. The moral compass with regard to ICAC on here is beyond belief. The ICAC doesn’t need to find things that are criminal. If you are rorting the system then you should face a penalty especially when one is in a position of power.

    2. If unvaccinated people go to places where vaccinated people are they are primarily only risk is to themselves – they may catch COVID-19 from a fully vaccinated individual with dire consequences from them. Yes, the full vaccinated may catch COVID-19 but the chances of ending in hospital are slim. Someone could correct me on this if I’ve got this wrong.

  17. Morning all. I hope the Senate succeeds in this quest to force ATO head Chris Jordan to reveal which companies kept Jobkeeper funds.

    One of the great myths of Australian politics and finance is that there is a right to privacy over income. Ethically there is no such thing. Privacy rights relate to personal matters such as health, relationships etc. Most countries do not give privacy over income.

    Australian law may have invented such a right for individuals, but it seems quite far fetched to extend that to companies. There are many cases where there is a public interest in knowing what companies make, for good policy making. The level of income may determine eligibility and obligations for many matters, and needs to be known. Chris Jordan has some explaining to do.

  18. Buce

    I’m sorry, I can’t see what you’re seeing.


    ‘(1) This section applies in respect of a person:
    (a) who ceases to be a member while proceedings for a serious offence are pending against the person, or
    (b) who ceased to be a member if proceedings for a serious offence are instituted against the person for conduct that occurred when the person was a member.’

    So the person specified was a member whilst proceedings were underway/imminent and then resigned.

    Section 4 says if they’re guilty they are no longer eligible, must repay any money they’ve received and get refunded whatever funds are left in their account.

    It seems very clear cut.

  19. Kirky

    There is always a group of people who cannot get vaccinated for medical reasons. Plus the death rate from covid is not zero for the vaccinated, as Colin Powell demonstrated. So the medical people do, with good reason, want to stop the spread of covid. More spread means more deaths. Plus the load full spread of covid puts on hospitals still threatens to fill them, denying treatment to others in need. A friend’s wife hear in Adelaide right now needs a (minor) heart procedure, but can’t get it, because elective surgery places are limited.

    If political apathy has prevented stopping the spread, medical officers still want to limit it.

    We should not have talked about “opening up” till the population was fully vaccinated. But an incompetent health minister who failed to order enough of the correct vaccine, combined with the unchallenged work of anti-vaxers, has prevented that.

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    The federal government is considering a rethink of the size and mix of the nation’s migration program amid warnings the living standards of ordinary Australians will fail to keep up with much of the developed world in the wake of the pandemic.
    Australia has a big immigration shortfall. But migrants have also been papering over rigidities in the domestic job market, explains Jo Masters.
    Sally McManus argues that the federal government must prioritise working people’s financial security. She says that an economic recovery based on exploding casualisation and record numbers of Australians in multiple jobs is no recovery at all.
    Ross Gittins says that as we emerge from the pandemic, the keys to making life in Australia better rather than worse are to face up to all the change being forced upon us, and to unite in finding solutions that share both the costs and the benefits as fairly as possible.
    In this frank assessment, Shaun Carney says, “Turnbull had his Snowy Hydro 2.0 and Gillard her NDIS while this Prime Minister has an election win and a range of props.”
    Lucy Cormack tells us that yesterday ICAC heard Gladys Berejiklian wanted a multimillion-dollar grant request for her boyfriend’s Wagga Wagga electorate accelerated and planned to back the proposal before it was presented to the government’s expenditure committee. Piece by piece, Counsel Assisting is building the case.
    Gladys Berejiklian expressed an “inclination to support” a $5.5m grant for a shooting complex in Wagga Wagga which her then-secret boyfriend Daryl Maguire had been personally lobbying for, the Independent Commission Against Corruption has heard.
    The Australian reveals that Gladys Berejiklian’s legal costs will be covered by taxpayers during her appearances at the Independent Commission Against Corruption, after she received approval for ex gratia payments to pay for a team of lawyers including two of the nation’s top barristers.
    As the Independent Commission Against Corruption prepares to put the former NSW premier in the witness box again, it’s time to weigh up its reputation, writes the AFR’s legal editor, Michael Pelly.
    Almost half of $60.2bn in federal government grants awarded over the past four years did not go through a competitive open tender process, a new report on grant spending has found. Sarah Martin tells us that the auditor general on Tuesday published an “information report” on the $60.2bn worth of government grants awarded under the GrantsConnect program, which is the centralised reporting mechanism administered by the Department of Finance.
    “How to justify making grants not recommended by the relevant department? Easy – just say you do. That’s what is disclosed by Freedom of Information requests into the wealth of federal government not-recommended-but-given grants”, says Michael Pascoe.
    Michelle Grattan reports that Anthony Albanese has referred Labor MP Anthony Byrne to the finance department to investigate his employment of taxpayer-funded staff who didn’t turn up to his office.
    Nationals MPs are being told a federal plan to slash carbon emissions to net zero levels by 2050 will deliver a “great positive” for the economy despite new modelling that shows a hit to coal prices from global action on climate change, writes David Crowe.
    Failure to stand up to the Nationals makes Liberal leaders the real villains, says Jack Waterford.
    Phil Coorey writes that the Nationals are handing over their climate demands but many senior members of their party and Liberals say the drawn-out negotiations will be damaging.
    The contours of Scott Morrison’s climate policy transition seem apparent – net-zero emissions by 2050 is done and dusted as the new benchmark, the Nationals will finish with truckloads of concessions and the Prime Minister is turning the climate debate into an economic debate, opines Paul Kelly.
    The insistence of denialists at The Australian that the 2050 emissions targets are beyond the world’s reach is damaging and flies in the face of science and technological progress, argues Jeremy Webb.
    “You take the high road and I’ll take the low road, and I’ll be in Scotland before you” headlines this contribution from John Lord.
    COVID exposed our fractured national identity, but state-based loyalties were rising long before, writes politics professor, Judith Brett.
    Australia’s tax commissioner, Chris Jordan, faces an inquiry into whether he “disobeyed a lawful order of the Senate” by declining to release information about jobkeeper payments. The Senate voted last night to refer the issue to the powerful privileges committee, the latest development in a long-running battle between non-government senators and the Coalition over the key pandemic economic stimulus measure.
    Retail Food Group, the franchising giant, is in the spotlight again. Matthew Elmas tells us about what Michel’s Patisserie put it franchisees through and ended up in a class action being launched.
    With some of the most prominent think tanks on defence and foreign policy receiving funds from companies that rely on war and threats of war, Australians are being fed vested interests masquerading as “independent” opinion, writes Dr Sue Wareham.,15645
    Vaccinated Melburnians flying home from London next week will be allowed to bypass hotel quarantine and instead self-isolate for a week in a trial using tracking technology.
    According to Josh Taylor, Clive Palmer’s United Australia party has spent close to $1.2m on YouTube ads in less than two months, as it racks up millions of views on its videos criticising lockdowns and government responses to the Covid-19 pandemic.
    A respected community leader accused of pocketing almost $75,000 in taxpayer funds has been handed a temporary medical exemption that deems him unfit to give evidence the day before he was to appear before an anti-corruption commission in Melbourne.
    Paul Sakkal writes about a major win for Anthony Albanese and Daniel Andrews where the ALP’s takeover of its Victorian branch amid branch-stacking allegations has been upheld by the Supreme Court.
    Alexandra Smith reports that voluntary assisted dying will not go to a final vote in NSW until next year after the state government and Labor agreed to send the bill to an upper house inquiry, delaying any potential reform for months. The rear guard action continues.
    Anthony Galloway writes that Australia’s counter-espionage agency has warned Australia’s adversaries may try to infect its telecommunications and energy grids with malicious code to launch damaging cyber-attacks years down the track, as the government readies to pass laws to better protect critical infrastructure.
    In a surprise move, the NSW Labor Party recently adopted a controversial definition of anti-Semitism without open debate after some last-minute changes to the agenda, writes Stuart Rees.
    John Crace is at his sarcastic best as he writes, “Boris ‘Bertie Booster’ Johnson serves up climate baloney for breakfast”.
    Mercedes-Benz has hit back at a $650 million lawsuit filed by a collection of Australian dealers, saying its switch to an agency model is compliant with all Australian laws. But Labor senator Deborah O’Neill has called on the German car giant to roll back its plans or fairly compensate local dealerships for lost business.
    “Texas schools are being told to teach ‘opposing views’ of the Holocaust. Why?”, explores Franceine Prose.

    Cartoon Corner

    John Shakespeare

    David Pope

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Alan Moir

    Matt Golding

    Cathy Wilcox

    Fiona Katauskas

    Andrew Dyson

    Mark Knight

    From the US

  21. BNO Newsroom
    UK COVID update: Daily death toll at highest level since March 9

    – New cases: 43,738
    – Average: 44,890 (+745)
    – In hospital: 7,877 (+215)
    – In ICU: 862 (+30)
    – New deaths: 223
    – Average: 130 (+6)

  22. BNO Newsroom
    U.S. COVID update:

    – New cases: 85,127
    – Average: 79,550 (-4,718)
    – In hospital: 55,808 (-506)
    – In ICU: 15,302 (-275)
    – New deaths: 2,080
    – Average: 1,550 (-89)

  23. Kirky from 6:48am

    If unvaccinated people go to places where vaccinated people are they are primarily only risk is to themselves – they may catch COVID-19 from a fully vaccinated individual with dire consequences from them. Yes, the full vaccinated may catch COVID-19 but the chances of ending in hospital are slim. Someone could correct me on this if I’ve got this wrong.

    Um.. where do I start? Firstly, full vaccination reduces your odds of being infected. It reduces your odds of being infectious. It reduces your odds of becoming seriously ill or dying if infected. Its not a bullet proof shield, but sadly a lot of people have been talking about vaccination as if it is.

    But do people ever think rationally about odds? If my chance of dying from covid (after being exposed) is 1 in 100 (a fair estimate for me), then after having AstraZeneca my odds grow to 1 in 1200. That’s still scary odds. After all, the odds of dying from skydiving is 1 in 100,000.

    Worse, your odds of dying from covid go up exponentially with age. So someone in her 70s whilst fully vaccinated shares the same risk as someone in his 50s unvaccinated.

    In other words, even if everyone were vaccinated and no one was at risk because they can’t use or won’t respond to a vaccine, decisions that result in avoidable covid infections are overwhelmingly decisions to kill older people.

    We’re also seemingly blind to the fact that outdoors the same activity is 20 times less risk than indoors. In other words, the difference between doing something outdoors or indoors is actually more important than the difference between being vaccinated and unvaccinated.

    So while I approve of the idea of granting freedoms to vaccinated people, the continued indifference to ventilation in social venues and gyms and the like is undermining what could have been exceptionally good policy.

    Going back to the issue of allowing unvaccinated people to mingle. The word is no. Just putting vaccinated people together in social venues, having them stand face to face (especially without masks) and talk loudly is just too risky. Its plain stupid. Vaccines just aren’t good enough to provide that kind of protection.

    And introducing unvaccinated people into such places not only means unvaccinated people will mix with unvaccinated people, but it will see unvaccinated people act as vectors between vaccinated people. Imagine the scenario where two people are talking in a pub and are vaccinated. One is infected. He doesn’t know it. But because he is less infectious and because they guy he is talking to is vaccinated, an infection does not occur. Now introduce a non vaccinated person. He gets infected (and unknowingly because the vaccinated person is less likely to feel symptoms). He brews a bigger batch of virus and is far more likely to then pass it on to the next guy who is vaccinated and again he is more likely to be asymptomatic.

    Bottom line, the policy to exclude non vaccinated people from social venues is a damn good policy. In part because of its direct effects. In part because social pressure is what is driving the high rate of vaccination. Its also stupid to announce that there will be a date where vaccinated people can go to pubs too. Let them be the tiny minority that miss out.

    Let me finish by adding this. People don’t get big numbers. After a few zeros the average human brain loses track of size. Vaccines might mean that you’re less likely to get seriously ill or die. Perhaps by a factor of ten or more. But all this means is that you need ten times as many people being infected for the same number of deaths.

    Given exponential growth, any such multiplying factor is purely a matter of time. If the reproductive rate of the virus is over 1.0 for any length of time, then a disaster will occur. All vaccines do is adjust the rate of cases that will result in a given rate of sick/dead people. And sadly, in a country of 25 million people, that pool of “susceptibles” is all but infinite.

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