The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.
Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:
• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.
• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.
• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.
3,090 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”
It happened recently. Nath was joking when he said 1952.
About 1973, I was invited to a childhood friend’s wedding.
At the reception, “God save the Queen” was played. We all dutifully stood for the occasion, except some persons I was at table with, fellows of Dutch heritage, who were born about the late 1940s early 1950s; and had come to Australia about 1960. They were early to mid-twenties at the time.
A younger brother, born here, stood for the anthem.
I can’t begin to explain the anger and seething hatred of the Queen. They couldn’t/wouldn’t explain it.
Possibly BW has an answer.
Right, gotta link for that?
What kind of psychopathic troll would say that spending $5.5 million of taxpayer’s money on your boyfriend’s meritless boondoggle, out of which he stood to personally profit handsomely, was excusable because it was only “petty” corruption?
Meher Baba, that’s who.
There would be several centuries of , no doubt fierce, competition in the global trading/merchant fields with plenty of perfidious in the Perfidious Albion. Not feeling the love for Britannia might be well ingrained.
For the 2o21 Election predictors!
BB. That’s an intentional and ludicrous misreading of what I wrote.
I think I’ve espoused before there’s not much difference between the Taliban and Christianity in attitudes towards women.
Tsk tsk. Men can’t control themselves once they view the “flesh.”
And Nath was wrong, it was much later than 1952.
Meher Baba @ Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 9:43 pm
Please enlighten us on what you meant. Perhaps your words do not come across as you intended?
The Age 19/10
Labor leaders including Premier Daniel Andrews and federal MPs Richard Marles and Bill Shorten attended fundraisers that prompted the firefighters’ union boss to hold concerns that the cash raised was used for branch stacking.
Union chief Peter Marshall wrote to the party in 2018 questioning whether funds raised were being used for their intended purpose after years of dinners at which high-profile Labor identities drew crowds of party members as former minister Adem Somyurek grew his powerbase. No action was taken on his complaint.
Good for something i suppose. Who would have thought.
She’s being investigated over the alleged misdirection of $5.5 million of taxpayer’s money, from which her boyfriend stood to profit personally, for an unnecessary project benefiting a private club on private land, which had nevertheless been dismissed as worthless by every senior public servant asked to consider it, and you reckon it might only be “petty”?
I think it’s you that has lost track of reality MB, not me.
“There would be several centuries of , no doubt fierce, competition in the global trading/merchant fields with plenty of perfidious in the Perfidious Albion. Not feeling the love for Britannia might be well ingrained”
Yeah, but hadn’t the English just helped to “liberate” the Netherlands from Nazi Germany?
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 9:43 pm
[‘BB. That’s an intentional and ludicrous misreading of what I wrote.’]
That’s what you’re implying. Please stop being evasive – she’s a crook.
Refusing a free ticket to an opera is no signal of virtue, high standards, or morality.
Why, if offered, I would refuse to accept a hundred tickets to an opera.
And I understand Italian!
A policy that kill your voters doesn’t seem smart. It is interesting however as it deals with how effective the vaccine is.
Fulvio I get where you coming from.
Wat Tyler @ #3000 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 9:23 pm
On the poster of the guy who was standing about with a list of people who are going to hell, which sprocket posted earlier, one of the groups was ‘Contentious Women’. So I said to Cud, just ask Wat Tyler, with a winkie emoji 😉 as you had equated me earlier today with, as my mother used to style it colloquially, ‘The Mad Woman from Borneo’.
It was a light-hearted comment which I hope you now understand?
For a minute there, I thought, what a masterstroke, Gladys. Get the upstart to be the fall guy. Make him treasurer, to sign off on a shifty deal. And he did.
But what I want to know is, why was Gladys deliberately barren?
Why would “God save the Queen” be played at a wedding in Australia?
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 9:59 pm
[‘Refusing a free ticket to an opera is no signal of virtue, high standards, or morality.
Why, if offered, I would refuse to accept a hundred tickets to an opera.’]
What you need to be introduced to is the long line of English opera – eg:
– you’ll go mental?
Whereas your comment “I think I’ve espoused before there’s not much difference between the Taliban and Christianity in attitudes towards women”, may be true for some branches of Christianity (e.g. Sydney Anglicans), it is not the case across the board.
The Uniting Church (and the three denominations which came together in 1977 to form the UCA), have been ordaining women for almost a century (Rev. Winifred Kiek was ordained by the Congregational Church in South Australia in 1927).
What I find distressing is that before Union the Presbyterian Church ordained women into the ministry, yet the rump who refused to join the UCA, AKA the continuing Presbyterians, no longer ordain women and are very patriarchal.
Also the Anglican Church outside of Sydney ordains women as Priests (and Bishops).
Unfortunately, there are Christians who cherry-pick passages of scripture which they interpret as supporting “male headship”, whilst ignoring the significant number which highlight and value women in leadership. They should read the section in Judges which focuses on the exploits of Deborah, or Paul’s letter to the Ephesians which addresses the church leaders, who happen to be women.
In the same way that the Taliban are not representative of all Moslems, the Sydney Anglicans and the ACL are not representative of all Christians.
I’m not a fan of ICAC (the one in SA has been shit) but a $5.5m grant to your undisclosed boyfriends mates is exactly what it’s for.
Speaking of corruption and the need to follow rule of Law, check out Elon Musk’s dodgy dealings with the FAA and the fraudulent way he treats the environmental approval process.
I dunno, I was a kid, and it just was, back then, in our Catholic society, and in my experience, particularly at weddings. It seemed to be at the start of the wedding toasts.
Perhaps it was where the reception was held: at the Rotary Club.
kezza2 @ #3019 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 10:12 pm
The more important question is, did she have an empty fruit bowl!?! 😆
I’ve been saying how shit the SA hospital system is and now someone resigning has literally said the same thing.
“He has told colleagues Central Adelaide Local Health Network chief executive Lesley Dwyer is doing the best she can but “has been handed a steaming turd and, no matter how much her superiors tell her to dress it up, it’s still a steaming turd.
“Until the SA government staff and fund our hospital fully, South Australians will continue to receive substandard care, and we will continue to see avoidable lung cancer deaths.”
The surgeon is a cardiac surgeon who works for free in the public system and doesn’t have a private practice. He has also written a book of his experiences as a war surgeon, most notably in Kosovo.
Like Julie Bishop’s empty fruit bowl?
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 10:12 pm
[‘But what I want to know is, why was Gladys deliberately barren?’]
Sprogs are problematic. Perhaps she thought she could better cope with nieces and nephews – close but not close enough to be too troublesome.
You missed the point, Mave.
Like shooting clay pigeons in a barrel
Carer limiting…. Like getting the sack if it didn’t get funded..
But when Doorn made a draft submission to Ayres’ office that included a recommendation for a feasibility study, it was ultimately removed in favour of funding the entire project.
“We wouldn’t make that decision ourselves, that would have been made on feedback from the minister’s office,” Doorn said on the change to the recommendation.
He agreed it would have been “career limiting” to continue pushing back on the proposal once the minister’s office had decided to back it.
Doorn said there “comes a point in time” after having “robust discussions” with the minister that a public servant has to “present information to allow the minister to achieve his political objectives”.
I think Gladys will be dead lucky not to be subjected to criminal proceedings. It’s going to be a mad scramble to find a Public servant to blame.
Yep, seems to me the only thing that forced Gladys to resign was the forfeiture of a generous pension; seems you can’t get the pension if you’re found guilty while still in office.
Otherwise, you’re financially home free.
Imagine if we plebs were allowed that luxury. Time for a rule change.
“present information to allow the minister to achieve his political objectives”.
This looks like a deliberate statement by Doorn that he understood what was required of him… would the court be able to understand this as order to perform a corrupt act?
I think Barnaby & Trump share the same opinion about pork barreling & corruption … if it benefits them or their causes it’s Ok & not corrupt or illegal by definition
It seems weird we’re just about out of lockdown, in Victoria, when we’re already out of lockdown in the Latrobe Valley, yet the cases here are still rising. From low 20s to 30s every day.
We’re all a bit antsy, especially now that exposure sites are no longer considered necessary information.
However, every where I go (and that’s not often), masks are pretty much mandatory.
It’s a worry.
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 10:30 pm
[‘You missed the point, Mave.’]
Yes, I anticipated I would – not too good with the oblique.
It is sometimes forgotten that despite being an adult in the 21st century (as opposed to the more prudish Victorian era), and being in a relationship of years duration, Berejiklian went to great lengths to characterise her relationship with Maguire as “close and personal”, but not “intimate”, the latter of which statuses is the word that triggers the NSW Ministerial Code Of Conduct.
Despite it being somewhat unbelievable to anyone over the age of 15 that Gladys’s and Darryl’s relationship was chaste, that’s her story and she’s sticking to it, for the time being. It affords her the smidgin of a chance of denying she had a close enough relationship with Darryl to bring up a clear and codified duty to avoid conflicts of interest, or even to ultimately to dob him in.
But only a smidgin.
Thankfully, the ICAC is not as sentimental as Gladys’s adoring public.
Infections reported in the UK today are just under 50,000 representing a 16% increase week on week – and the recent trend
Replicated elsewhere across Europe
Noting winter is approaching in the Northern Hemisphere (as we await the end of winter in Melbourne!!)
“not too good with the oblique”
Hint: Think double standard, dear
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 10:13 pm
[‘Why would “God save the Queen” be played at a wedding in Australia?’]
When young, we had to stand up at the start of a film in a cinema, in homage to the Queen, after which old codgers lighted up, their smoke wafting through the light of the projector.
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 10:56 pm
Thanks. Got you.
Yes, remember that, Mavis.
Are formerly conservative parties in the English speaking world sliding into fascism?
Now Dominic Raab, Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice and Deputy Prime Minister in the UK wants to:
Legislate for “A ‘mechanism’ to allow the government to introduce ad hoc legislation to correct court judgments that ministers believe are ‘incorrect’.
This will form part of proposals to reform the Human Rights Act, the lord chancellor has revealed.
Just imagine Michaelia Cash being allowed to “correct” judgements of the High Court!
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 10:38 pm
Yep, seems to me the only thing that forced Gladys to resign was the forfeiture of a generous pension; seems you can’t get the pension if you’re found guilty while still in office.”
Wrong. Parliamentary Contributory Superannuation Act 1971. 19AA (1) (b) applies.
I am surprised that they haven’t updated it to an Accumulation Fund subject to the same Conditions of Release as the vast majority of Australians. Must be one of the last remaining Defined Benefit Pension Funds that starts before normal age and retirement conditions of release.
Catholics playing the National Anthem (God save the Queen) at weddings in the 50s and 60s was a bit of a leftover from WW1 where Catholics were considered a bit slow to the flag, especially Irish Catholics after Easter 1916.
Rikali @ Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 11:06 pm
“Are formerly conservative parties in the English speaking world sliding into fascism?”
Not just English speaking countries. Think Hungary for a start.
As has been said, “those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”. Not many left that that have lived through World Wars and their aftermath, and students of history are in the minority.
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 11:00 pm
Had a toast to the Queen at our wedding. And we were chopping the top off champagne bottles with Cavalry Sabres. Best wedding I’ve ever had.
Scanning the last page only
I have frequently been a guest (so others paid for me) at the Federal Treasurer’s post budget round of presentations
These are fund raising events for the Liberal Party – and they are not cheap
Before you get to the donations they seek over and above the cost of a table
Plus you are asked if you are interested in joining the Liberal Party, application forms at the ready
And everything labelled “Liberal” and whatever the catch cry of the day is
Tax deductible of course
Then you get to the other organisations such as the Higgins 500 – so a raft of fund raising activities
No doubt Labor does the same thing
Including presenting who they present as the “headline act” to attract an audience (and donations)
Fund raising is a major activity of political parties (and not only political parties)
Reputations are built on it
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 10:19 pm
I’m not a fan of ICAC (the one in SA has been shit) but a $5.5m grant to your undisclosed boyfriends mates is exactly what it’s for.
In the past IBAC in Victoria seemed to focus on senior public servants and local govt.
Head of V’Line, a few Education dept officials and some local councillors have all been brought undone. Usually for kickbacks in the tendering process or kickbacks for re-zoning land for development.
Not sure where the branch stacking and misuse of public funds will end up but has been an eye opener for many Victorians.
Bushfire Bill says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 10:51 pm
If they were playing at being married at home then it’s quite possible.