Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly federal poll from Morgan, plus updates on looming state by-elections in New South Wales, which could potentially be forfeited by Labor.

The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.

Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:

• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.

• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.

• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,090 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. The alleged misappropriation of $75k in community grants funds by Hussein Haraco of the Somali Australia Council of Victoria might, on a generous view, be seen as alleged individual misconduct- even though he is described as a “moderate Labor factional operative”. As with this whole appalling Somyurek saga, the Victorian ALP is however accountable for the cultural and process inadequacies that allowed this to occur.

    However Somyurek’s alleged strategy of diverting investigations by claiming they were based on racism, and trying to invoke BLM, plumbs a new and despicable low.

    ———————
    They decided to invoke the “highly sensitive issue” of the Black Lives Matter movement in response to media questions.

    Mr Carr said it was an attempt to “confect racism as an attempt to cower journalists from investigating things you did not want you and your mentor did not want investigated”.

    Cr Garotti agreed with that characterisation. “I might mention the Black Lives Matter and young people struggling with their identity and engagement in the community,” Cr Garotti told Mr Somyurek.

    Mr Somyurek responded: “[Say] I’m sorry, but the black people at the moment are very, it’s a time of high sensitivity, and I’m very sensitive and this is part of racism. Can you go that hard?

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/ibac-hearings-live-updates-rick-garotti-to-appear-for-second-day-at-ibac-inquiry-20211018-p590zf.html

  2. Barney in Bali says:
    Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 6:38 pm
    “Meher,

    Why does it have to come down to a crime?”

    Because either a crime has been committed or it hasn’t.

    Dragging peoples’ names through the mud just because you don’t like them or their politics is disgraceful and totally unacceptable.

  5. Poor Cameron says:
    Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 7:14 pm
    “Speaking of Republic, wasn’t the ARM supposed to come out with their model of republic?”

    You’re funny.

  6. Mr Bowe

    A question/suggestion about BludgerTrack…

    Would it be possible to add columns at the end of the state-by-state Polling Data tables showing the 2PP for that state at the 2019 election? It would then be easier to see polling results in terms of any developing ‘swing’ trend.

  8. While we’re on the subject of BludgerTrack, have you been weighting things at all to compensate for the 2019 poll failures, or just feeding it the raw data? I’ve been curious about this for a little while now.

  12. Bucephalussays:
    Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 7:59 pm

    Barney in Bali says:
    Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 6:38 pm
    “Meher,

    Why does it have to come down to a crime?”

    Because either a crime has been committed or it hasn’t.

    Dragging peoples’ names through the mud just because you don’t like them or their politics is disgraceful and totally unacceptable

    Of course, it has nothing to do with appropriate standards of behaviour.

    If her behaviour is above board, she will come out smelling like roses.

  15. “However Somyurek’s alleged strategy of diverting investigations by claiming they were based on racism, and trying to invoke BLM, plumbs a new and despicable low”
    ________________
    Wow.
    That is going to take some beating.

  16. Richo has the same idea about “corruption” as Gladys has: it’s only corruption if you get sent to jail for it.

    Otherwise, it’s just politics as usual.

  17. Taylormade says:
    Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 8:25 pm

    Wow.
    That is going to take some beating.
    ————-

    Agree Gladys, Victorian Liberal party and the federal lib/nats corruption look unbeatable

  19. Apropos of the ICAC hearing into allegations that Bereliklian breached the public trust and failed to report the corrupt conduct of Maguire.

    While a breach of public trust would normally have political consequences, given Berejiklian resigned, not much flak would ensue, and almost certainly such a breach would not attract not much more.

    However, the allegation of her failure to report corrupt conduct as a ‘principal officer’ is far more serious; for it’s analogous to facilitating a corrupt act – conduct not based on commission but by omission.

    Section 11(2) of the ICAC Act is cleverly drafted – it reads:

    ‘A person to whom this section applies is under a duty to report to the Commission any matter that the person “suspects on reasonable grounds”
    [my emphasis] concerns or may concern corrupt conduct.’

    I think the verb “suspects” is crucial, the grant to the shooting club was signed off by Berejiklian, and later approved by Perrottet when he replaced her as treasurer though there’s no evidence that he was complicit.

    I once had a long relationship. We’d talk about all manner of things. Not that I’m an expert in relationships, but a five-year affair with a bloke who’s corrupt to his bootstraps – including visa applications which could have federal implications – may not pass the high mark of the ICAC.

  21. BB: “Richo has the same idea about “corruption” as Gladys has: it’s only corruption if you get sent to jail for it.”

    It seems to me that there are two sorts of corruption: major corruption, which is criminal and for which you are likely to be sent to gaol if proven guilty, and petty corruption of the “hand in the till” variety, where the consequence might be just being sacked from your job and required to pay the money back.

    I imagine these ICAC hearings are costing a large amount of taxpayers money, so I would certainly hope they are going after major corruption of the criminal variety here and not just petty stuff.

  22. Where the Wagga thing went wrong was the insistence on clay pigeons when live pigeons are the go.

    It lacks integrity. It lacks authenticity. It lacks tradition.

    EVERY.SINGLE.THING.

  23. Lying is corruption. Misrepresenting science is corruption. Rewarding third raters with sinecures is corruption. Looking after your mates is corruption. Allowing your influence to be purchased is corruption. Misrepresenting your values is corruption. Allocating resources to buy votes is corruption. Doing secret deals is corruption. Using the state apparatus to hide the truth is corruption. Mistreating scapegoats is corruption. Intending to betray trust is corruption. Abusing your power to increase your wealth is corruption. Using your office to set yourself up for a nice little earner after taws is corruption.

  24. meher baba @ Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 8:42 pm

    “Petty.” Such an interesting word. I think ICAC manages to pass the “petty” test in this case. Do you?

  25. There is no such thing as “petty stuff” when people hold the highest offices in the land.

    The Victorian premier John Cain wouldn’t even take a freebie to the opera, according to Philip Adams.

    Now we have politicians at every level, federal, state and local, who have they hand out for every perk going.

    “Within in the rules,” they cry when challenged.

    And who writes the rules?

    And when it comes to rorting the myriad grants and funding schemes they do everything they can to ensure re-election so they can keep a seat on the gravy train.

  26. Rossmcg: “The Victorian premier John Cain wouldn’t even take a freebie to the opera, according to Philip Adams.”

    That would make him close to unique among the politicians and senior bureaucrats whom I’ve encountered. Good on him.

  27. meher baba @ #2971 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 7:42 pm

    BB: “Richo has the same idea about “corruption” as Gladys has: it’s only corruption if you get sent to jail for it.”

    It seems to me that there are two sorts of corruption: major corruption, which is criminal and for which you are likely to be sent to gaol if proven guilty, and petty corruption of the “hand in the till” variety, where the consequence might be just being sacked from your job and required to pay the money back.

    I imagine these ICAC hearings are costing a large amount of taxpayers money, so I would certainly hope they are going after major corruption of the criminal variety here and not just petty stuff.

    Luke 16:10
    Whoever can be trusted with small things can also be trusted with big things. Whoever is dishonest in little things will be dishonest in big things too.

  28. Well, my prediction of a November 3 election is off. I still think it will be this year. Announcements and plans are what Morrison and company do best. Dealing with reality, not so much. Easier to do the former this year, as opposed to next. But what would I know? 🙂

  30. Where does ‘petty corruption’ end and major corruption begin? Especially when you leave it up to the politicians to define these things.

    And once you start giving a free pass to ‘petty corruption’, where does it end? ‘Petty corruption’ after ‘petty corruption’ is okay but a big corruption isn’t? Well you’ll just have people figuring out how to be corrupt up to the limits that have been set out in the laws that would be needed to be passed to codify what ‘petty corruption’ is. Just like we have heard about this week wrt donations. Multiple donations of $1 less than the limit, in order to get around the rules. So, by the end, ‘petty corruption’ would become the order of the day. Is that what people want our politicians to be doing for their day job? Being practiced at petty corruption?

  31. Wat Tyler says:
    Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 9:08 pm

    That’s the one! The 6th. All days are blurring into one at present. Perhaps I should visit the office one day 🙂

  33. Griff

    If Scomo calls the election for mid December and R goes over 1.0, that’s it, I’m betting the house on Labor winning. There are so many people who have been led to believe that “its all over” that even a modest climb in cases will spook them plenty.

  34. Remember the Liberals part starting the ‘hands off the CFA’ campaign and using it to raise funds for themselves rather than for firefighters….

  39. Earliest possible date for an election at this point is 27 November. If this weekend passes without an announcement, the only remaining 2021 dates the 4 December or 11 December. After that, it’s probably cutting it too close to Christmas (I think the 11th already is pushing it – today’s rumours notwithstanding.)

    Those who’ve put their stock into there being a 2021 federal election should start rubbing their lucky charms. There are about two and a half weeks left before that’s off the table.

  40. Asha says:
    Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 7:44 pm
    Lurker:

    Jesus. One only wonders what horrors would be found on the harddrives of those “distracted’ teachers.

    The date was 1952, Asha.

    Nevertheless, the same measurement of skirts above knees, was daily enacted upon us, by the nuns, as students at a Catholic secondary school, in the late 1960s.

    Still, no hard drive, then, either.

    Edit: hopefully fixed bold type.

  45. meher baba:

    Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 8:42 pm

    I’m not sure you’re getting it. The former NSW premier is in loads of trouble for sticking to her former beau, the NSW ICAC setting an admirable example of exposing corruption. Prima facie, Berejiklian’s conduct was not petty.
    By the way, did I ever tell you that from time to time, you do carry on? Well, if I didn’t I’ve been remiss.

  48. The date was 1952, Asha.

    The story is actually recent. Lurker was just saying it was from 1952, presumably as a commentary on how old-fashioned and sexist the values of that school’s staff are.

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