The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.
Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:
• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.
• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.
• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.
ICAC, I don’t care whether the polly that gets dragged up be red,blue,green or friggin brindle, if they play the game and caught out stiff shite.
That’s the reason there will never be any sort of corruption body created by the L/NP as half the party would be gone.
If Albo is fair dinkum about this he’ll back an ICAC of whatever form it takes and as soon as Labor gets in power they will juice up its powers, including retrospectivity.
Doing that get every lying, stinking mongrel bred barsteward that steps out of line including those still alive and breathing.
Top of the list, the unflushable turd, John Howard and his clingon Alexander (fishnets) Downer.
Kakuru says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 5:38 pm
There isn’t a country called Palestine.
The area of Mandatory Palestine, otherwise known as the British Protectorate of Palestine would be a potential basis for membership.
GG
I kind of think that is a bit “by and by” in this inquiry as expedited dud proposals for what is presumably political purposes must be not completely rare.
It is the conflict, perceived or real which cannot be circumvented.
Meher Baba
The disclosure of conflict is a continuing obligation and would include an obligation to disclosure an earlier failure to disclose.
Wat, another dishonest argument sometimes brought up by monarchists is Nazi Germany was a republic; so therefore all republics are bad, whereas monarchies like the UK are good. They care not to mention that Fascist Italy was a monarchy during the Second World War, as was Imperial Japan (still is).
Shellbell,
There’s also the bureaucratic and political “round and round” that seems to be accompanying this particular spending decision. A lot of people seem to believe it was a crock proposal. Yet Gladys and her Beau had their will acceded to in the end.
Maybe I imagined it but I thought someone might say there was an imperative to slush money on regional sporting infrastructure after the justified greyhound ban went down the shithole in the Orange by-election helpfully orchestrated by my friend Andrew Gee wanting to get closer to Barnaby.
Bert says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 5:43 pm
What have you got against blokes wearing fishnet stockings to raise money for charity?
citizen @2:32
You mean percentage of whole population at least one dose.
NZ 73%
AU 71%
What’s new is that New Zealand has now gained the lead in fully vaccinated.
NZ 57.03%
AU 55.69%
We still have a little way to get past 80% fully vaccinated (whole population).
The Voice of the Regions.
Masericha Trade mark sign
@masericha
·
1h
Matt Canavan – Where I’m from there’s not a lot of roads or airports.
Born on the Gold Coast
Grew up in Brisbane
Boerwar
I think we need a Shellbell to adjudicate this ;).
Shellbell, I choose you! *tosses pokeball*
Nah. The Queen would not do such a thing unless the UK had a consensus position promoting Trumpism (as it does for acting on AGW). Then my criticism would be directed at the whole of the UK, and I would feel sorry for the Queen having to find something positive to say about Trumpism, given she seems to dislike that person :P.
In any case, whether or not she says things I agree with, I don’t see why she should be our head of state.
Would be interested to know if anyone has any thoughts on the likelihood of the electorate of Canning changing at the next election.
I reside in the Darling Downs part of the electorate that convincingly went Labor at the state election, and this part of the Canning electorate has the highest population growth for the 2019 – 20 year. Most of them are young home owners embarking on the home owning dream. They are very affected by child care costs. Another large part of the electorate is Mandurah which is an older age range and I hear very worried about opening up and what is seen by many as Morrison putting WA citizens at risk
Some good news in here:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-19/hunter-covid-cases-drop-as-vaccination-rates-surge/100550126
Now, why do they report “>95%” in some areas rather than the exact number, as they do for the other areas? What do they have to hide? Still the second dose figures will catch up and 95+ (in adults) is a good sign that the vaccine hesitant are a pretty small minority.
But.. we need to get school age children vaccinated asap.
It’s sometimes difficult to understand what makes people tick. This GP in NZ is no longer employed because she refuses to be vaccinated. Yet she had earlier organised a campaign to have people wear masks.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126719115/doctor-who-ran-mask-campaign-quits-after-refusing-mandated-vaccine
As MB mounts a stout rear guard defence of Saint Gladys, suggesting the real Snydley Whiplash is Dom Perignon, the cool kids are asking “Why not both?”
Shellbell @ #2796 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 5:53 pm
You think that’s a justifiable reason to ladle out the pork? If so, then you are a subscriber to the ‘Everybody Does It’, mantra of Gladys Berejiklian.
Another building needs urgent attention due to developer corruption!
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/urgent-monitoring-of-structural-cracks-in-sydney-apartment-tower-20211019-p591b9.html
To be fair to Canavan, Brisbane is a terribly backwards shit hole. The best place to be in Brisbane on any given arvo is the QANTAS Club waiting for the flight home. No one with tuppence worth of brains arranges an overnighter there if they can at all avoid it. Worst joint in Australia.
Latest friendlyjordies.
https://youtu.be/n6xCu2vgjfc
Dam! by friendlyjordies
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6xCu2vgjfc
Mark Dreyfus
@markdreyfusQCMP
·
3h
The Prime Minster and his deputy are right to be terrified of what an independent national anti-corruption commission would reveal about what they have been up to over the last 8 years.
Cud Chewer @5.56
I’m sure you’re right with the figures. I’ll double check next time. I really prefer the % of total population figure as a more accurate measure.
Unvaccinated athletes unlikely to get visas to enter Australia, says Victorian premier
Covid ‘doesn’t care what your ranking is,’ says Daniel Andrews
Novak Djokovic unsure over Australian Open title defence
Silver lining … Dan saves us from world’s second most boring tennis player.
https://www.royal.uk/australia
Apparently it *does* depends on where she stands :P.
Sorry Shellbell, I don’t need you anymore.
Wasn’t Queen’s English named after a bloke called Queen?
Them’s fighting words Burgey…
GG
I’d buy it.
@mumbletwits has a prescient tweet.
Sceptic @ #2813 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 6:11 pm
Yep, there’s only one particular demographic who will be displeased that he isn’t turning up.
Bucephalus
LOL
Roy Orbison: “As MB mounts a stout rear guard defence of Saint Gladys, suggesting the real Snydley Whiplash is Dom Perignon, the cool kids are asking “Why not both?”
I’m not trying to defend Gladys: her failure to disclose her secret relationship with Maguire should have meant the instantaneous end to her career when it first came out, and shame on the NSW Libs for failing to remove her at that time.
All I’m expressing is some doubt, on the basis of what we have heard so far, as to whether ICAC will be able to find that she might have broken any laws.
Meher,
Why does it have to come down to a crime?
Two days of ICAC, two witnesses.
Nothing to see here?
I think I’ll reserve judgment.
Remember Berejiklian had a private session a month or so ago and it would seem that was not enough to convince the commissioner all was OK.
Likewise the various ministers.
Rossmcg @ #2823 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 6:47 pm
And it appears to have convinced Gladys herself to resign forthwith. Once she got the letter confirming her likely suspicions.
Speaking of Republic, wasn’t the ARM supposed to come out with their model of republic?
Did anybody mention ICAC?
The corruption watchdog is now examining two state government grants, totalling $35 million, that were made to two organisations in Mr Maguire’s electorate between 2016 and 2018 while Ms Berejiklian was treasurer and later premier.
It would appear ICAC & politicians have a different opinion of what constitutes corruption & what constitutes Pork Barreling.
“ And it appears to have convinced Gladys herself to resign forthwith. Once she got the letter confirming her likely suspicions.”
Who an forget the hand flutter dismissal of the journo that had the temerity to as ICAC questions in her daily corona update presser “respect this press conference” was the line as I recall it. Followed shortly thereafter by her short lived gambit in cancelling said daily press conferences.
Yep. Saint Glad. Sigh.
Some background to the upcoming witnesses at the Berejiklian ICAC Inquiry:
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/berejiklian-wanted-grant-request-for-maguire-s-electorate-accelerated-inquiry-told-20211019-p59181.html
Andrew_Earlwood @ #2827 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 7:17 pm
‘Respect my authoritah! 😆
Found this old article from 1952.
A Tasmanian Catholic secondary school has been forced to issue an apology after a group of year 8 students were instructed to kneel down to have their skirts measured, because their dress length was “distracting” male teachers and students.
Marist Regional College, in the coastal town of Burnie, sent out a letter of apology on Monday afternoon after complaints from multiple parents, who called the incident “outdated” and “humiliating”, the Advocate reported.
Several parents told the Advocate a group of girls were pulled out of class and taken to a communal space where they were asked to kneel and have their skirt lengths measured.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/19/tasmanian-catholic-school-teacher-claims-girls-skirts-distracting-male-teachers-and-students
I reckon ICAC is following the money.
Where it came from, who took a little earner on the pass through and in whose pockets it ended up.
And if you had any doubts about why Morrison won’t have a bar of corruption commissions:
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/more-than-half-the-grants-for-regional-areas-went-to-major-cities-auditor-general-20211019-p591a8.html
Big tranche of docs dropped by the Icac this arvo. Among them is the transcript of a private interview with a former Berejiklian staffer. Staffer discusses a note he prepared in Nov 2016 in which he refers to a meeting between Berejiklian and Maguire regarding…
The clay target shooting range now at the centre of Icac’s inquiry. Remembers Berejiklian being “amenable” to the project being brought fwd for consideration by the Expenditure Review Committee she headed.
Separately, Icac also tendered an email from a treasury official sent 6 Dec 2016 apparently following discussion w the same staffer. States: “the Treasurer requested this (the clay target proposal) be brought forward and has indicated an inclination to support the project”.
The ABC TV News report on today’s Question Time stroke Net Zero By 2050 debate ended with ScoMo loudly (it’s always loudly) declaring “Only the Coalition can be trusted…” with the rest of what he was saying disappearing under Andrew Probyn’s sign-off.
The report had started with “The Nationals have conceded that Scott Morrison has a mandate to achieve Net Zero By 2050.”
Morrison has, of course, no such mandate. In fact his mandate (if any) was to avoid Net Zero, so as to preserve The Aussie Weekend and Save The Economy.
But I digress…
As to whether “Only the Coalition” can achieve Net Zero, or even anything much at all, it has to be in serious doubt, given that 20 years of time that could have spent developing consensus and planning for the future is now being crammed into three weeks of horse-trading up and down the Parliamentary corridors.
Nevertheless, the scene has been set for our “Senior Political Commentator” class to begin openly discussing this Mandate Out Of Nowhere as if it is real and has always been in place under the careful guidance of Scott Morrison, and to ask the question whether it really is true that only the Coalition can deliver effective action on Climate Change.
I think we can all guess what answer they will settle on. It’ll start on some program like Insiders with one of the journos jokingly saying, “It’s a pretty cheeky claim, for sure, but when you look at it, well …”
As I have predicted here many times:
Beware the Climate Epiphany.
Lest we forget the ongoing abuse of human rights in Xinjiang:
——————-
Officials have implemented a “trinity mechanism” in the new Xinjiang, involving managers responsible for 10 households, fake families from the Han Chinese majority and the Political and Legal Affairs Commission (PLAC). The household managers are trained in intelligence, propaganda and re-education, while the fake families are appointed to “show warmth” to their appointed Uighur relatives while watching their homes for any signs of religious or political subversion. All of it is overseen by the PLAC, which is notified of “enemy movements” including having an unexpected visitor at home, driving a car that does not belong to them, receiving an overseas phone call, or as in Ablitz’s case, using file-sharing apps such as Zapya. The commission has established 9000 police substations to monitor each community.
https://www.theage.com.au/world/asia/fake-families-and-neighbourhood-spies-as-repression-of-uighurs-turns-personal-20211018-p5912p.html
The brilliant City of Sydney Council & brilliant Clover Moore are proposing a new raft of Harbour swimming pools….this one on the Seine in Paris..
Lurker:
Jesus. One only wonders what horrors would be found on the harddrives of those “distracted’ teachers.
We are only on day 2 of the 10 scheduled to drill into who knew what – Gladys and Daryl get their chance to explain the largesse bestowed on the clay pigeon fanciers of Wagga Wagga…
“Gladys Berejiklian expressed an “inclination to support” a $5.5m grant for a shooting complex in Wagga Wagga which her then-secret boyfriend Daryl Maguire had been personally lobbying for, the Independent Commission Against Corruption has heard.
The grant was approved by the state’s powerful expenditure review committee despite treasury officials recommending against it.
On Tuesday the commission revealed that an official inside the NSW treasury department wrote that Berejiklian had asked for a funding proposal for a shooting range and clubhouse put forward by the Australia Clay Target Association to be “brought forward” to the committee in December 2016.
In an email on 6 December 2016 the official, Yogi Savania, wrote that Berejiklian, then the treasurer, had “expressed an inclination to support the proposal”. The commission has heard evidence that public servants in the office of sport viewed the project as “low priority”, with a “deficient” business case.
The $5.5m grant is one of two at the centre of the Icac’s investigation into whether Berejiklian breached the public’s trust by “exercising public functions” in circumstances where she had a conflict of interest because of her secret relationship with Maguire.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/19/shooting-club-grant-for-55m-went-from-low-priority-to-urgent-in-weeks-icac-hears