The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.
Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:
• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.
• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.
• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.
Chris Gaskin says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 4:46 pm
I think we are heading towards minority government folks. I see the Libs losing 6 seats definite
Chisholm
Boothby
Swan
Pearce
Hasluck
Casey
I see them gaining probably 1 in Hunter
That leaves it at 71 Libs 74 Labor and then Labor get to 76 with Bandt and Wilkie! If it’s any less than that seat gain wise or if Libs pick up Patterson then Libs will probably return in a minority government.
———————
Talking to Liberals they are more worried about Higgins and Deakin than Casey.
So it is.
Anyway, my other point stands. I want to see some more SA state polling soon.
‘DisplayName says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 4:32 pm
I assume she switches hats (crowns?) when she speaks as Queen of Australia :P.
Or maybe it depends on which country she’s standing on.’
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The Queen does not speak ‘as’ the Queen of England and then ‘as’ the Queen of Australia.
Were the Royals currently engaged in a bit of a public campaign to promote Trumpism I assume that many of the above posts would simply have done an 180 degree uTurn.
In any case it is high time that Australia put on its long pants.
Looking through the Morgan report, that’s an even better poll for the Vic ALP than I initially thought. The federal implications arn’t great for the Coalition either. Frydenberg would be pretty nervous right now, I reckon.
Hobart/Canberra can start lobbying for Perth’s Ashes test.
https://www.9news.com.au/videos/national/western-australia-to-relax-queensland-border-controls/ckuxm1pb9001y0hs2qyociowk
Zerlo I heard of push polling. Fair effort there.
Asha, check the date of that poll
Boerwar
The Queen would still be influential if Australia became a republic.
Jesus, is Perotett going to have to resign already? I know Premiers don’t tend to last very long in NSW, but this would have to be some sort of record.
Oh.
Goddamn it, Zerlo.
At least some Indigenous nations in Australia would have been following seasonal dualist economic patterns when the invasion fleet arrived. The implications then, and now, are potentially very large:
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/oct/19/unfreezing-the-ice-age-the-truth-about-humanitys-deep-past
Zerlo,
That Morgan Poll is from November last year.
‘Utterly his own right’ for Scott Morrison to commit to net zero, Barnaby Joyce says.
Barnaby Joyce has acknowledged that Scott Morrison can commit Australia to a new net zero target without the endorsement of the Nationals’ party room.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/oct/19/utterly-his-own-right-for-scott-morrison-to-commit-to-net-zero-barnaby-joyce-says
Subtext .. Barnyard can’t deliver… he’s a eunuch.. or a spayed bull
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 5:00 pm
Boerwar
The Queen would still be influential if Australia became a republic.’
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I am curious about how you might support this view.
‘Sceptic says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 5:06 pm
‘Utterly his own right’ for Scott Morrison to commit to net zero, Barnaby Joyce says.
….’
——————————
1. Morrison shows leadership.
2. The Nationals brought home the bacon.
3. Bullshit roolz.
That Morgan poll from last year turned up in my thread also. So, I’ll cut Zerlo some slack. It’s easy to get taken in sometimes.
Boerwar
She is the head of state of the U.K and head of the Commonwealth which Australia would still be a member.
What is the saying? “To lose one premier ina month is unlucky, but to lose two?”
“Anthony Klan
@Anthony_Klan
Police cars revolving light
EXCLUSIVEPolice cars revolving light
NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet drawn into ICAC scandal, was responsible for $5.5m gun club grant. Approved just weeks after staff raised serious concerns that it was “unusual” – and NSW Office of Sport saying it wanted “no involvement”.
Bucephalus says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 3:10 pm
Sir Henry Parkes says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 2:36 pm
The recently released correspondence clearly shows that the GG was only doing his job.
Supply was blocked. The Treasury was about to run out of money. Civil servants, soldiers, sailors and airmen were about to not be paid and couldn’t put food on their tables – remembering that people didn’t have credit cards like today.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
In the first place it was not the governor-general’s job to do anything. He was not there to be a political participant, but to act on instructions from the elected government. If Kerr thought that was bad for the country, he should have resigned, not gone conspiring behind the prime minister’s back with the opposition leader, the chief justice and, yes, the Palace.
Kerr deceived his prime minister and acted outside his accepted role.
If the country was about to run out of money, it was the opposition blocking supply which was responsible for that. They should not have been rewarded for their destructive tactics.
In any case, it is now known that supply was about to be passed because a few opposition senators were about to fold as public opinion was firmly against what they were doing.
If Kerr had waited it out, the crisis would have resolved itself.
So spare me the conservative folklore.
David Rowe!
‘Mexicanbeemer says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 5:09 pm
Boerwar
She is the head of state of the U.K and head of the Commonwealth which Australia would still be a member’
—————————————-
True, but hardly enough to claim that the Queen would have an ‘influential’ role in Australia.
One role is constitutional and has real power. The other role has no constitutional standing. Apart from that, everyone ignores the Commonwealth when it suits them. Which is a lot of the time for many countries.
Nuh-uh. Should will be be declared an enemy of the Revolution, and she (and her heirs) will be tried in absentia for crimes against the Republic and sentenced to death, should any of them dare step on Australian soil ever again. Anyone caught agreeing with any of their thoughts or feelings on any matter will be regarded as a sympathiser and a counter-revolutionary, and will be punished accordingly!
Wat
I suggest you head off to luxuriate in Boris’ post-Brexit British nirvana.
That’s a fair point.
There are some parallels with Australia in this:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/oct/16/david-puttnam-hits-out-government-quits-house-of-lords
Socrates @ #2868 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 5:10 pm
Deputy Liberal leader Stuart Ayers might have to have a serious think about his position too!
Wouldn’t becoming a Republic mean we are no longer part of the Commonwealth?
Sir Henry Parkes: “If the country was about to run out of money, it was the opposition blocking supply which was responsible for that. They should not have been rewarded for their destructive tactics.”
And consequently hundreds of thousands of families should have been punished?
“In any case, it is now known that supply was about to be passed because a few opposition senators were about to fold as public opinion was firmly against what they were doing.
If Kerr had waited it out, the crisis would have resolved itself.”
I’ve heard this said, and I’ve heard at least one Senator (Alan Missen was it?) claim with 20/20 hindsight that he would have done so.
But, if any Senator had truly been contemplating doing this, why didn’t they write to the G-G and tell him? It was pretty obvious to everyone at the time, apart from Gough, that Kerr was preparing to do to take some sort of action. Richard Carleton and others on the ABC were predicting this several days before 11/11. I recall TDT running a skit (presumably scripted by Mike Carlton) on Melbourne Cup eve in which there was tight battle between Fraser and Whitlam down the main straight before the Governor-General appeared out of nowhere and stopped the race.
I’m far from convinced that anyone was truly going to cross the floor. And if they hadn’t, what then?
No. Unless we wanted to leave, we’d still be in it. There are plenty of republics in the Commonwealth, such as India.
The only requirement for membership of the Commonwealth is at some point in history the British Empire controlled territory within your country’s current borders.
Asha
“Wouldn’t becoming a Republic mean we are no longer part of the Commonwealth?”
Don’t see why. The vast majority of member states of the Commonwealths are republics.
Wat
“The only requirement for membership of the Commonwealth is at some point in history the British Empire controlled territory within your country’s current borders.”
I don’t think that’s still a requirement. Mozambique joined the Commonwealth in 1995.
“NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet drawn into ICAC scandal, was responsible for $5.5m gun club grant. Approved just weeks after staff raised serious concerns that it was “unusual” – and NSW Office of Sport saying it wanted “no involvement”.”
Surely that particular piece of information is actually helpful to Gladys, as it makes it very clear that it wasn’t actually her who made the final decision, and therefore she couldn’t have had a hidden conflict of interest.
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2021/10/19/michael-pascoe-opportunity-cost-pork-barrelling/
There are countries in the commonwealth that Britain never ruled and there are countries England ruled that are not members.
Serviceable cricket is the only requirement for Commonwealth membership
Assantdj says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 4:28 pm
It is possible that if new restrictions are imposed in WA when the borders are opened that Mark’s popularity could fall from sky high to just high.
Asha @ #2765 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 5:22 pm
Canada is still.
OK, fair enough. I stand corrected. Honestly, I am not that knowledgeable of it myself (and can’t really be bothered looking it up), I just remembering hearing that years ago (combined with a “technically the US and Israel qualify for membership too” factoid attached to it.) But I do know for a fact that the Commonwealth membership isn’t just restricted to realms of the crown.
Isn’t the Premier also a member of the ERC?
https://www.pollbludger.net/2021/10/14/morgan-53-47-to-labor-2/comment-page-58/#comment-3729337
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cricket_in_Canada
Canada is a constitutional monarchy like Australia.
Colin Powell has died.
This is a small snippet of the ideals that drove him to be who he became.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1450070514509041665
mb
“Surely that particular piece of information is actually helpful to Gladys, as it makes it very clear that it wasn’t actually her who made the final decision, and therefore she couldn’t have had a hidden conflict of interest.”
This is bold.
ICAC has a well formed view where the real decision making is.
Wat / Kakuru:
Cheers, I genuinely wasn’t aware of that!
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, October 19, 2021 at 4:22 pm
If they can make a good brew and are handy with a jaffle iron I’d be content. Kate would suffice.
Boerwar @ #2853 Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 – 4:57 pm
If you’re going to keep on criticising the Queen at least get her title correct. There is no such person as the Queen of England and hasn’t been since Queen Anne. She is Queen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. England is not a shortened form of the name.
Wat Tylker
“Honestly, I am not that knowledgeable of it myself (and can’t really be bothered looking it up), I just remembering hearing that years ago (combined with a “technically the US and Israel qualify for membership too”
Yeah I know what you mean. The factoid that Mozambique joined the Commonwealth was stuck in my head. I really don’t care much about the Commonwealth.
Regarding “technically the US and Israel qualify for membership too”… Would all of the US qualify, or just the 13 founding states plus Hawaii? If Israel qualified for membership, would Palestine as well? These are utterly pointless questions to which I have given absolutely zero thought.
Asha, that’s fair. The waters can be a bit muddied on the issue. Especially as some dishonest monarchists sometimes like to assert that we’d be booted out of the Commonwealth or… gasp… not be allowed to participate in the Commonwealth Games if we became a republic.
Shellbell,
The fact that Public Servants were harried to “Just get it done” tells me that there was someone pulling the strings.
shellbell: “ICAC has a well formed view where the real decision making is.”
So it would appear. But it also seems that the actual formal signing off of any relevant grants was done by persons who were not Gladys. An argument could be mounted that a conflict of interest is only relevant to the person putting their signature on a document and that everyone else involved in the process was merely expressing an opinion, not directing that something should happen.
I’m sure many would suggest that it’s an argument that wouldn’t pass the proverbial “pub test.” But isn’t it correct in a strictly technical legal sense?