Morgan: 53-47 to Labor

The latest fortnightly federal poll from Morgan, plus updates on looming state by-elections in New South Wales, which could potentially be forfeited by Labor.

The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).

The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.

Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:

• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.

• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.

• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.

• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,090 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Are people still defending Group Ticket Voting in 2021???

    Throw it in the trash where it belongs.

    We’ve had two elections since GTV was abolished federally, and it’s been shown pretty conclusively that:

    A) Minor and micro party candidates that actually have support in the community still can and do get elected. Even better, there are very few cases where a minor party on a, say, 4% primary gets beaten by a micro candidate on 0.2% purely due to preference leapfrogging that few voters have any actual say in.

    B) The Coalition and right-wing minor parties have not, as the scare campaigns back in 2016 suggested, benefitted from the reforms, nor has it adversely affected Labor’s senate results.

    Of course, electoral reform shouldn’t take into account which parties will or won’t benefit from the changes, but thats what everyone was losing their mind about back when the changes were first proposed in early 2016 (several years after many of the same people bemoaned the crazy Senate system in the wake in the 2013 result.)

  2. Victoria has recorded 2,179 new local COVID-19 cases and six deaths as the deadline for authorised workers to be vaccinated passes.

    The death toll for the current Delta outbreak stands at 131, and there are now 21,324 active cases of the virus in Victoria.

    The new cases were detected from 73,942 test results received yesterday.

    There were 38,752 doses of vaccine administered at state-run sites, and more vaccinations at GP clinics and other venues.

    Yesterday, Premier Daniel Andrews said Victoria remained on track to follow its roadmap out of lockdown next week, despite recording 2,297 new COVID-19 cases and 11 deaths.

    It was the highest single-day total recorded by an Australian state or territory during the pandemic.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-15/victoria-records-new-covid-cases/100540928

  6. Victoria:

    I was under the impression restrictions are being eased this coming Monday, though I may well have gotten my wires crossed being all the way up here in QLD.

  8. Year 11 and 12 are already back at school.
    Next week. There will be staggered returns of different year levels on different days.

    Also 2000 air purifiers have already gone into the classrooms of priority.

    Vic govt had ordered 51000 air purifiers sometime ago, but only 2000 received to date.

    The shortage of goods generally around the globe at the moment is presenting its own issues.

  10. NSW records 399 local Covid-19 cases and four deaths.

    The state has recorded 399 new local cases and sadly four people infected with Covid-19 have died.

    NSW Health (@NSWHealth)

    NSW COVID-19 update – Friday 15 October 2021
    In the 24-hour reporting period to 8pm last night:
    – 91.4% of people aged 16+ have had one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine
    – 77.8% of people aged 16+ have had two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine
    – 85,000 tests
    – 399 new locally acquired cases pic.twitter.com/zxDFDL2bM5

  12. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Friday, October 15, 2021 at 9:19 am

    NSW records 399 local Covid-19 cases and four deaths.
    _____________
    Maybe Gladys was the woman who saved Australia. Pity about Dan though.

  16. At this stage the 12 to 15 year old vaccination rate in Victoria has been amazing. Considering this group have only been eligible very recently.

    Meanwhile the target of double dose of 90 percent 12 plus, is looking good for early December.

    Fingers crossed.

  17. Victoria

    “I’m not sure if NSW is bringing forward the return of students to school from the 25th to the 18th October.”

    No. They have changed the dates about four times but another twist will be too much.

  19. “ Maybe Gladys was the woman who saved Australia. ”

    Pity about the last 100 odd days.

    Pity about letting the cruise industry run unchecked for another 6 weeks after covid was declared a pandemic and we had the Diamond Princess disaster.

    Pity about the smug hubris, laissez-faire pro business slackness regarding PPE.

    naff naff. Trolling the board. As per usual.

  21. Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Friday, October 15, 2021 at 9:30 am

    naff naff. Trolling the board. As per usual.
    ________________
    Considering your views on the NSW Labor leader I’d expect you to think he couldn’t have done any better than Gladys.

  23. Capture myopathy, or muscle damage resulting from extreme exertion or stress,

    It doesn’t just apply to Roos. Extreme exertion, ie too much exercise. Not good for human hearts either.

  25. Andrew_Earlwood @ #441 Friday, October 15th, 2021 – 9:30 am

    “ Maybe Gladys was the woman who saved Australia. ”

    Pity about the last 100 odd days.

    Pity about letting the cruise industry run unchecked for another 6 weeks after covid was declared a pandemic and we had the Diamond Princess disaster.

    Pity about the smug hubris, laissez-faire pro business slackness regarding PPE.

    naff naff. Trolling the board. As per usual.

    Sad and pathetic, eh? Thinks we can’t see straight through it.

  26. David Crowe reckons that it’s “sink or swim” for Barnaby Joyce and he tell us that he must accept net zero.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/sink-or-swim-why-barnaby-joyce-has-to-accept-net-zero-20211014-p59010.html

    Once again a “senior journalist” manages to write a column discussing Climate Policy WITHOUT ONCE discussing WHY we have a Climate Policy, on the merits, or the damage that has been done by the Coalition not having one, in fact by wrecking every chance we’ve had to establish one.

    Crowe rattles off his reasons why Joyce “must” give in.

    ● Morrison has pivoted by 1 degree a day for 180 days,

    ● It’s popular with city voters,

    ● We might have trade sanctions imposed on us if we don’t do something,

    ● The Libs hate the Nats because they know they need them but can’t bring themselves to admit it,

    ● The Nats hate the Libs because they know they need them but can’t bring themselves to admit it,

    ● Cabinet solidarity,

    ● News Corp won’t like it,

    ● Let’s face it, it’s time to pivot…

    Not ONE word is wasted on the dangers of a planet going up in smoke.

    Not ONE word wasted on the utter, utter disgrace of the way both the Coalition parties plus the media enablers, over the past two decades, have bullied, cheated, broken their word, misrepresented facts and science, executed (even their own) leaders, mocked, heckled, lied, and smugly patted themselves on the back as they have trampled serious Climate policy, each time claiming to be absolutely correct, morally ascendant, and dedicated to the national good.

    Now that he has gotten News Corp’s cynical and repugnant about-face out of the way, after so many years of obstruction, Crowe presents it as a mere fair accompli, without comment or judgement, not to be doubted for either it’s commitment or it’s sincerity.

    I have rarely seen a more cynical and disgusting piece presented in a mainstream media outlet, dismissing 20 years of lies and wrecking with no more than a journalistic shrug of the shoulders.

    It takes its readership for fools, and reduces governance in Australia to petty internal horse trading, party room shenanigans, a private matter to be decided by the two natural ruling parties, without reference to either the hypocrisy, the astonishing cynicism, or the actual merits of the case for change.

    Just awful.

  27. Jaeger

    The Queen condemns ‘really irritating’ world leaders for snubbing Glasgow climate talks

    I’m sure she wasn’t talking about our Scotty, because he isn’t really any kind of leader.

  28. ”
    Britain will offer six-month emergency visas to 800 foreign butchers to avoid a mass pig cull, it said yesterday, after farmers complained that an exodus of workers from abattoirs and meat processors had left the pork sector fighting for survival. What a surprise!
    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/britain-opens-door-for-800-foreign-butchers-to-process-backlog-of-pigs-20211015-p5906p.html
    ”

    I wonder where did that £350 million/ week savings go by achieving Brexit

    https://www-independent-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/final-say-brexit-referendum-lies-boris-johnson-leave-campaign-remain-a8466751.html?amp_js_v=a6&amp_gsa=1&amp&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw%3D%3D#aoh=16342514148942&referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.independent.co.uk%2Fnews%2Fuk%2Fpolitics%2Ffinal-say-brexit-referendum-lies-boris-johnson-leave-campaign-remain-a8466751.html
    “

  29. Aukus
    Inquiry to question whether Australia needs nuclear industry to support submarine program
    Rex Patrick says it’s ‘beyond comprehension’ Australia could build a nuclear-powered fleet without a domestic industry to support it.

    The ONLY reason SfM has opted for Nuc boat is to get Nuclear power.. the only reason..
    Labor wins it will NEVER happen

  31. Two interesting topics from RN this morning in an interview with the AMA vice president.

    One. They are having to throw out Pfizer doses plus 1ooos of doses of AZ in QLD – Yep Palaszczuk and her supply problems…whinging for months had months to organise now that she has it can’t get it into arms.

    Two. The harm the AZ scare campaign has done – ABC looking at you. And interestingly he seemed to believe AZ may end up being the better vaccine, he never went into detail.

  33. Lurkie @8.26am
    ” Don’t shroud it in a noble quest”
    Ain’t that true of many!
    The Greens do it consistently but all the he parties, big small, as well as the independents do it when needed.
    Katter, Harradine, Xenophon and even Pauline.
    Barnaby the rural/country/crusader no less.
    Good luck to those choosing the elimination of gambling/gaming/betting/bridge playing/horses/dogs/raffles/elections!

  34. BB,

    I reckon the Libs have got Barnaby and the Nats right where they want to be.

    The Nats will extract billions for regional development in exchange for an announceable like 0 carbon emissions by 2050, take the money and then renege.

    The media will praise the outcome. Morrison will be be pilloried by all sides and it will die a natural death like so many of Morrison’s initiatives.

    As far as Morrison is concerned, making and marketing the announcement is the most important part of any proposed reform.

  35. From the New York Times, Australia ranks 34th among vaccinated Nations, one spot below New Zealand

    The UAE leads the table

    Even China, with 1.4 billion is well above Australia (with 25 million)

    So when (even) the ABC presents Canberra as the most vaccinated place in the World and you put the figures referred to against the NYT table, you start to wonder noting the vaccination procurement and roll out is a political issue in Australia the Australian government is seeking to neutralise (by saying how vaccinated we are now)

    So are we being fed manipulated data?

    This runs to the case numbers in NSW versus Victoria

    Has the virus “disappeared” in NSW, crossing the Murray into Victoria?

    Clever virus

    I can understand those States which closed their borders to NSW (and then the ACT and Victoria) keeping the virus out

    But the disparity between the NSW figures and those in the ACT (per capita and noting the ACT citizen demographic so virtually no Western Sydney nor Western and Northern Melbourne) and Victoria has me starting to question

    Some things just appear to good to be true

    We know in the UK they (at least did) only measure deaths in hospitals (so the deaths globally are far, far in advance of reported numbers)

    Or is it as simple as weather and Victorians being indoors?

    So not on the beach at Bondi

    There has to be an explanation (apart from suiting political games)

    The Delta virus readily transmits from human being to human being – and once it is present we see the escalation in numbers of recorded infections (despite Public Health Orders)

    So why are the numbers naturally falling?

    And is it down to vaccinations which we are told does not arrest the spread but mitigates against the health outcome?

    Are people with minor symptoms (due to vaccination) therefore not presenting for testing?

    So not in the figures?

    Or is it that Victoria vote Labor and NSW votes Liberal and the virus does not like Labor voters so attacks them not Liberal voters?

    Or is it that the numbers have never been correct, reflecting only those coming forward for testing, and the non reported spread is seeing a herd immunity factor?

    Hence the deaths at home being the first knowledge of the virus being in that household

    But, if that is the case why are infection numbers maintaining and increasing elsewhere across the Globe?

    Look at Russia, coming out of its summer now with record numbers of infections

    As always, you question

  36. Greens lost East Met, North Met, South Met and West Met.

    Labor gained in East Met, South Met and West Met.

    The Greens went into the election with 3 Lower House Seats, they came out of it with 3 Lower House seats.

    Not much eating going on. At best a nibble.

  38. Pretty big step:

    NSW ends quarantine – hotel and home – for incomers who are double vaccinated with a negative PCR prior to flight boarding.

  40. Justice Party seems to have taken seats from the conservatives – Liberal, National, Shooters, and the like – rather than from the Greens. In one seat they gained, there was no Green representative.

    Our local Justice person is one of those who has voted against compulsory vaccinations for MPs, which demonstrates his leanings.

    **Apologies for lack of snappy reply, morning walk.

  44. Ven says:
    Friday, October 15, 2021 at 9:48 am

    There are supply chain issues all over the globe. Further up the thread there’s reference to the Victorian Government only having received 2,000 of a 50,000 unit order for air filters. The recent fuel panic in the UK highlighted shortages of truck drivers – which is a problem throughout the EU also. So, to blame BREXIT as the sole source of these issues is disingenuous. Many people returned to their countries of origin because of the pandemic either because their work stopped or to care for family or just to be at “home”.

  45. Perrottet is much clearer in his messaging than his predecessor, without the wiggling and apologising and patronising, regardless of whether you are in agreement or not.

  47. Sceptic says:
    Friday, October 15, 2021 at 9:51 am

    “The ONLY reason SfM has opted for Nuc boat is to get Nuclear power”

    Ah, no. You are wrong. The reason they were selected was because when the constraint of not being allowed to select nuclear subs is removed then nuclear subs are the best to meet our requirements.

  48. ”
    Observersays:
    Friday, October 15, 2021 at 10:03 am
    …………….
    …….
    Or is it that Victoria vote Labor and NSW votes Liberal and the virus does not like Labor voters so attacks them not Liberal voters?
    ”

    This appears to be true because even in NSW virus did not like Labor voting LGAs. 🙂

  50. zoomster says:
    Friday, October 15, 2021 at 10:10 am

    Greens lost East Met, North Met, South Met and West Met.

    Labor gained in East Met, South Met and West Met.

    The Greens went into the election with 3 Lower House Seats, they came out of it with 3 Lower House seats.

    Not much eating going on. At best a nibble.
    ________________
    In East Met, Transport Matters beat the Greens to the last spot.

    In North Met, The Greens defended their one seat.

    In South Met, The Greens were beaten to the last spot by Sustainable Australia

    In West Met, The Greens were beaten in the last spot by Justice Party

    In Se Met, The Greens lost the last spot to the Liberal Democrats.

    And of course, The Greens increased their Lower House tally by 1 seat since the previous election. Just here yesterday you were saying that by elections don’t really matter, and that they produce perverse results. Well, here’s your chance to reflect that opinion and concede that the Greens increased their representation.

    Better luck next time.

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