The latest fortnightly federal voting intention poll from Roy Morgan finds the series continuing to bounce around within a range of 52.5-47.5 to 54.5-45.5 in favour of Labor, as it has through seven polls since July. The result this time is 53-47, in from 54-46 last fortnight, from primary votes of Coalition 37.5% (up one-and-a-half points), Labor 36% (steady), Greens 11.5% (down one) and One Nation 3% (down half).
The state two-party breakdowns, which range from respectable sub-samples in the case of the large states to a tiny one in the case of Tasmania, have Labor leading 53.5-46.5 in New South Wales (unchanged on the last poll, a swing of about 5.5%), 56-44 in Victoria (unchanged, a swing of about 3%), 55-45 in Western Australia (out from 54.5-45.5, a swing of about 10.5%), 54.5-45.5 in South Australia (in from 58.5-41.5, a swing of around 4%) and 53-47 in Tasmania (out from 52-48, a swing to the Liberals of about 3%). In Queensland, the Coalition is credited with a lead of 55-45 (out from 52.5-47.5, a swing to Labor of about 3.5%). The poll was conducted over the past two weekends from a sample of 2794.
Also of note, particularly in relation to state politics in New South Wales:
• There is now a fourth by-election on the way, following yesterday’s announcement by Holsworthy MP Melanie Gibbons that she will seek preselection for the federal seat of Hughes, where former Liberal incumbent Craig Kelly has defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party. Holsworthy is far the most marginal of the four seats that will be vacated, having been retained by Gibbons in 2019 by 3.2%. However, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor leader Chris Minns has said Labor “needs to consider whether to run in Holsworthy”, having “already suggested to his shadow cabinet that they should not run a candidate in Monaro or Bega”.
• The Sydney Morning Herald further reports that Willoughby mayor Gail Giles-Gidney is the front-runner for Liberal preselection in Gladys Berejiklian’s particularly safe seat of Willoughby. Based on the comments from Chris Minns noted above, it can presumably be taken as read that Labor will not run.
• As for Melanie Gibbons’ hopes for Hughes, both the Sydney Morning Herald and Daily Telegraph today report a view among senior Liberals that she would, in the words of the latter, “face difficulty securing preselection in a vote of party members”.
• If my thoughts on the federal election landscape are of interest to you, I have lately been providing material to CGM Communications’ state-by-state analyses, which have recently covered New South Wales and Victoria, and was interrogated for an election preview that aired on Nine News over the weekend.
Display NameI believe that when it comes to gambling it’s a question of addiction
I think that would be true enough. As Zoomster says, there are a lot of people who gamble as a form of entertainment, like going to the movies or bingo.
I have no interest in gambling but I wouldn’t ban it. Lotteries and lotto seem to be fairly harmless, for example. However, poker machines to seem to be particularly invidious and are designed to be addictive and to empty wallets. Australia is quite unusual in having the things in pubs and clubs throughout our suburbs and regions. In other countries that have them (and WA – is it another country now?) they are only in casinos.
Steve777,
They have online pokies you can gamble on now. They are ubiquitous.
I recall when the Packers donated 100k to the Vic Labor Party after Bracks got elected.
The Labor policy of restricting Crown Casino was soon jettisoned. Infamous stuff.
Dog that survived being sucked into tornado near Lithgow returns home from vet
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-14/dog-sucked-up-by-tornado-central-west-nsw-returns-home/100538440
zoom
That contradicts your earlier proposal that all activities regularly indulged by humans is addiction. Which is it?
Sure, and some people can probably control their behaviour when it comes to drugs, too. It’s a fair question to ask *which* drugs are a fair comparison. Still, that does not mean that gambling isn’t closer to drugs than to mountain climbing. Again, that was my point.
Nice try, but no. Who said I felt it applied to me? My point is that you are questioning the character and motives of the people opposite you in the debate (and what I’ve just quoted is essentially a second attempt at it) rather than debating the substance of their argument. I do not agree that your characterisation (as upper class) generally applies to the people debating you.
You’ve put something similar to Nath’s argument that KKK is not a slur on Kristina Keneally because she isn’t actually associated with the KKK. It’s not about whether it’s actually true. It’s about the association being drawn in the first place (and in this case, that association is made to discredit an argument on grounds of character and motive rather than the substance of the argument).
Albo pushing back against Michael Rowland.
nath
I thought I’d made that pretty clear in the past – I have no objection to minor minor parties being elected, and dispute the idea that those voting for minor minor parties feel that when another minor minor party has been elected that that wasn’t their intention.
My next door neighbour (as near as anyone can be a neighbour out here) was a genuine right wing nutter. When he voted for a minor minor party it was his intention that a minor minor party be elected – he didn’t care whether it was the one he’d voted for or not.
There are loonies out there. Alas. But if we believe in democracy, some loonies should be in Parliament.
Diversity. Representation. All that.
On Sept. 15, just days after the nation wept through the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, this was the headline: “1 in every 500 U.S. residents have died of COVID-19.”
https://epgn.com/2021/09/15/the-tyranny-of-the-anti-vaxxers/?amp&__twitter_impression=true
zoomster,
There is a difference between not having Labor branding, and not having Labor authorisation.
The authorisation on the material was same as “official” Labor campaign material.
The website domain was registered by same person who had registered other Labor campaign websites.
mundo @ #377 Friday, October 15th, 2021 – 8:21 am
At least it wasn’t Lisa Millar interviewing him. She just does not brook any Labor Party intervention in her solidly pro Coalition stance.
There was a tornado in Armidale NSW yesterday evening: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-15/tornado-visible-amid-lightning-storm-in-armidale/13587572
Cars were flipped and roofs torn off houses. The NSW SES received 111 calls for help in Armidale.
I think you are willing to live with the Druery influence on the Victorian Parliament because it disadvantages The Greens, they being unwilling to pay for his skills. Don’t shroud it in a noble quest for diversity.
DN
Because something can be described so, doesn’t make it so. (I did not say ‘because any human behaviour which is indulged in regularly could be described as an addiction, therefore all human behaviours which are indulged in regularly are addictions’ – my point was, in fact, the opposite; almost any human activity indulged in regularly could be labelled an addiction but that doesn’t mean it is).
Not all pokie players are ‘addicted’. Those who are should be treated as we treat other addicts. We don’t ban alcohol because some people are addicted.
Anyway, it’s becoming fairly obvious that you’re either not understanding what I’m trying to say (which might be totally my fault) or that you’re deliberately misunderstanding it.
In either case, I don’t think there’s much point in continuing the discussion.
(If you want to take that as a win, knock yourself out).
C@t
Not to mention that there are plenty of computer games designed with what is effectively the same gambling loop. Some of them hardly bother to disguise it :P.
They are in some ways easier to acccess than pokies, since you buy them on your phone and are with you all the time.
Just googling “Mark Dreyfus comments on Anthony Byrne” and click…
zoom
rofl, and you say nath doesn’t handle disagreement well :P.
nath
Given your fondness for trawling back through historical posts, have a go on this one. I’ve been very consistent. For the reasons I’ve outlined.
Unlike yourself, I am not a dishonest poster. When I’m out to get the Greens, I say so.
In this case, I simply have no trouble with minor minor parties getting elected, no matter how much I personally disagree with them. Just as I have no trouble about people playing on the pokies, even though I don’t understand the attraction myself.
zoomster,
Sam Ratnam’s comments are a pretty accurate assessment of Labor’s campaign in inner Melbourne.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/women-desert-greens-ratnam-blames-labor-s-dirty-smear-campaign-20181123-p50hza.html
It’s now obvious that the “huge money” Labor used to fund this came from Labor’s friends in the Gaming Industry.
Not really a surprise. Same thing happened in NSW.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/oct/14/covid-poor-people-uk-government-tories-died-in-thousands
zoomster says:
Friday, October 15, 2021 at 8:32 am
nath
Given your fondness for trawling back through historical posts, have a go on this one. I’ve been very consistent. For the reasons I’ve outlined.
Unlike yourself, I am not a dishonest poster. When I’m out to get the Greens, I say so.
____________________________
I don’t doubt you have been consistent. Because you know the Druery influence disadvantages The Greens. The nobility of your position isn’t enhanced because you have held it for a while.
The fact is you have no problem with Druery gaming the system and making money out of doing so. Just be honest why you support him in it.
I see that the Greens are up to their usual priority: getting rid of the most corrupt and incompetent federal government since Federation.
bakunin
As I said, there is no evidence provided that the smears came from Labor. Ratnam saying it did doesn’t make it true. Hopefully Ratnam reported the unauthorised material to the VEC.
I’m not so silly as some people to declare “wins” in this kind of debate. Someone saying that is effectively declaring that they agree with themselves :P.
Well, it should be taken as a given (unless I’m just trolling, which I’m not) that I’m putting forward points that I believe have some validity :P.
Victoria is definitely better off with the state not being ran to support Green stunts.
I reckon the Greens are bigger whingers than Donald Trump.
bakunin
This seems to be a good summary of what happened —
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/nov/25/greens-blame-labor-attacks-and-preference-deals-for-disappointing-victorian-election
I think this is the money quote — ‘Nick Economou, a Monash University political expert, said the party had not had a “bad election” but was the victim of inflated expectations.’
Lurker
Druery would have less success if the Liberals stopped registering fake parties to split the fringe vote. Effectively all Druery is doing is putting it back together.
frednk says:
Friday, October 15, 2021 at 8:40 am
Lurker
Druery would have less success if the Liberals stopped registering fake parties to split the fringe vote. Effectively all Druery is doing is putting it back together.
___________
Bizarre comment.
The severe outbreak of COVID-19 in Delhi, India, in 2021 showed not only that the Delta variant of SARS-CoV2 is extremely transmissible but that it can infect individuals previously infected by a different variant of the coronavirus, say a team of international scientists writing in Science.
SARS-CoV-2 had spread widely throughout India in the first wave, with initial results from the Indian Council of Medical Research finding one in five (21%) adults and one in four (25%) 10 to 17 year old adolescents had been infected. The figures were much higher in Indian megacities: by February 2021, over a half (56%) of individuals in Delhi were thought to have been infected.
Since the first case of COVID-19 was detected in Delhi in March 2020, the city had experienced multiple outbreaks, in June, September and November 2020. After reaching a high of almost 9,000 cases daily in November 2020, new cases steadily declined, with very few new infections between December 2020 and March 2021.
The situation reversed dramatically in April 2021, going from approximately 2,000 daily cases to 20,000 between 31 March and 16 April. This was accompanied by a rapid rise in hospitalisations and ICU admissions, severely stressing the healthcare system, with daily deaths spiking to levels three-fold higher than previous waves.
In research published today, an international team of scientists used genomic and epidemiological data, together with mathematical modelling, to study the outbreak. The work was led by the National Centre of Disease Control and the CSIR Institute of Genomics and Integrative Biology, India, with collaborators from the University of Cambridge and Imperial College London, UK, and the University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
Delhi outbreak highlights challenge of reaching herd immunity in face of Delta variant
The severe outbreak of COVID-19 in Delhi, India, in 2021 showed not only that the Delta variant of SARS-CoV2 is extremely transmissible but that it can infect individuals previously infected by a different variant of the coronavirus, say a team of international scientists writing in Science.
Poker machines seem to work by getting people into “the zone” and emptying their wallets / accounts while they’re there. Most players, like most drinkers, know when to stop but a small proportion don’t, or do know but can’t.
Now you get into the zone through any activity in which you are intensely involved. Running / jogging seems to be one (so I’m told). Work can be another. Conversation, games, reading, movies. In addition, gambling holds out the promise (a lie) of financial gain, possibly very significant. So I can see why some people would be attracted.
The key in the case of pokies would be harm minimisation rather than banning – betting limits, that sort if thing. It’s a pity they’re in pubs and clubs. I think they got there as a quid pro quo for random breath testing. Exchanged on harm for another.
“Now that the Labor Party see us as a genuine threat”
😆 😆 😆
It’s good to see Labor stooges not threatened by the Greens, who have only taken off Labor countless Upper House and Lower House seats across the country. What’s to be worried about?
Now you get into the zone through any activity in which you are intensely involved. Running / jogging seems to be one (so I’m told). Work can be another. Conversation, games, reading, movies. In addition, gambling holds out the promise (a lie) of financial gain, possibly very significant. So I can see why some people would be attracted.
The biochemistry is fascinating. Just yesterday I was reading about how too much running for some people, though not for marathon runners who seem to be able to cope, causes inflammatory chemicals to be released which can bring on heart attacks (and we all know the story of the guy who ‘invented’ jogging actually dying from a massive heart attack while he was jogging). That is, you need to know how to, or be able to I guess, find a balance that doesn’t tip you over the edge into harmful behaviour.
nath
In Victoria, we got a lot of them back.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The criticism of the coalition on climate policy is well deserved.
I was asked to comment (at absurdly short notice) on a very complex carbon credit policy proposal from government recently. Predictably, it was drafted with vague wording on baselines and definitions of emission intensity that could have allowed taxpayer funded credits to be given to fossil fuel interests that increased emissions. I have no confidence this weekend will see the Libs and the rural grifters party come up with anything better.
On gambling, if Labor or Liberals were serious, they would start by banning the advertising as was done with cigarettes decades ago. But alas, there is no Whitlam II in sight.
Go to any pub or RSL in the evening, walk into the pokies area, and really observe the people “gaming” there. Most of them are not having anything that could be called fun.
Sure, there are plenty of people in control, don’t spend beyond their means, are just playing the one-eyed bandit for a bit of drunken fun. The same can be said for any addiction. I can get shitfaced on a Saturday night and then go months without a single drink. Does that mean alcoholism doesn’t exist?
I’m not opposed to gambling. I indulge myself on occasion. But pokies are deliberately designed to appeal to addictive personalities and empty their wallets, even moreso than other forms of gambling. Much of these same insidious tactics have since been implemented in similar ethically bankrupt money-sinks like mobile games loaded with microtransactions (and I’ll say this about the pokies, at least they arn’t marketed to kids, though I’m sure the gaming industry is salivating at the very thought.)
Banning pokies outright is probably a step too far. But I’m all for making it as easy as possible for problem gamblers to free themselves from the life-destroying machines, and for making it far harder for those benefiting from pokies to ensnare new marks. Restrict them to casinos, enforce bet limits, enforce self-exclusion measures, band advertising, and ban the online stuff.
Nath,
I am sorry for your situation. Other people can and do count. Some even get paid to count.
The Greens have been stuck at around 12% for a long time, their preferences typically go to Labor, and contrary to the claims of some here, it is the Coalition who are keeping Labor out of power, not the Greens. That’s why Labor (quite rationally) spends the majority of its time worrying over its positioning relative to the Coalition, not the Greens.
Kangaroo pulled from Canberra lake in viral video euthanised by vet
https://www.smh.com.au/national/kangaroo-pulled-from-canberra-lake-in-viral-video-euthanised-by-vet-20211012-p58zc6.html
zoomster says:
Friday, October 15, 2021 at 8:55 am
nath
In Victoria, we got a lot of them back.
_________
Actually they went to Hinch didn’t they? The Greens keep eating into the Lower House seats though.
‘Victoria has become the first Australian state to require all MPs to be vaccinated against COVID-19 or be barred from parliament.’
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-15/unvaccinated-victorian-mps-barred-from-entering-parliament/100541136?utm_medium=social&utm_content=sf250366873&utm_campaign=abc_melbourne&utm_source=m.facebook.com&sf250366873=1&fbclid=IwAR0wJ7-9otZZqc6yjuZDaAe8o09ksneYKOK62WaEx13-spzia5yoLBwQguY
NSW 399 cases, 4 deaths, + 2 ICU, – 34 hospital
J
One roo?
Not to worry. A couple of wet springs, numerous watering points, lush and nutritious introduced grass species, one on the teat and one ready to go, and the removal of predators and kangaroo numbers will go through the roof.
Several things will then happen:
1. They will over graze the native grasslands, further threatening some endangered species.
2. They will go hungry and start carrying large loads of parasites.
3. They will move into suburbs and onto road verges.
4. They will cause millions in collision damage.
5. They will create controversy over culling.
6. Rinse and repeat.
nath
At the last state election – I was, remember, talking about Victorian Labor – the Greens gained no Lower House seats and lost four of its five Upper House seats.
Giant hopping rats!
…so, at least in Victoria, the Greens don’t seem to be ‘eating in’ to anything.
zoom
They couldn’t do worse than eating those giant hopping rats before they turn into a plague.
Victoria’s figures for today
Reported yesterday: 2,179 new local cases and 0 cases acquired overseas.
– 38,752 vaccines administered
– 73,942 test results received
– Sadly, 6 people with COVID-19 have died
zoomster says:
Friday, October 15, 2021 at 9:06 am
nath
At the last state election – I was, remember, talking about Victorian Labor – the Greens gained no Lower House seats and lost four of its five Upper House seats.
__________________
You said in Victoria ‘we got them back’. But that’s not true. The Greens lost their Upper House seats to Hinch’s Justice Party and probably AJ. The Labor Party didn’t take them off the Greens.
And of course The Greens took Brunswick off Labor, increasing their Lower House representation since the previous election.