Roy Morgan put out its now regular fortnightly poll of federal voting intention yesterday, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 52.5-47.5, down from 54.5-45.5 on a fortnight ago and its narrowest result in two months. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38.5% (I believe the Morgan release is incorrect when it puts it at 39.5%, which would be up by two and is different from the headline), Labor is down three-and-a-half to 35%, the Greens are up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation is steady on 3%.
The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last poll, and a swing of around 6% compared with the 2019 election), 57-43 in Victoria (in from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 4%) 51.5-48.5 in South Australia (in from 57.5-42.5, a swing of around 1%) and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (in from 63.5-36.5, a slight swing to the Liberals), while the Coalition leads 54-46 in Queensland (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%) and 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing of around 2.5% — and the Coalition’s best data point from this state all year). The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2753.
Also out today was the regular Essential Research survey, containing neither voting intention nor leadership ratings on this occasion. The regular results on federal and state governments’ handling of COVID-19 is included as always, which record improvement for both the federal government and the governments of New South Wales and Victoria. The federal government’s good rating is up four to 43% and its poor rating is down one to 35%; the New South Wales government’s good rating is up six to 46%; and the Victorian government’s good rating is up six to 50%. For the other states with their small sample sizes, Queensland’s good rating is down two to 65%, Western Australia’s is up nine to 87% and South Australia’s is down nine to 67%.
Further questions from the survey suggest Western Australians and to a lesser extent Queenslanders are firmly of the view that states without outbreaks should be able to keep their borders closed for as long as they think necessary (67% and 55% respectively), but that only a minority of those in New South Wales and Victoria do so (28% and 31%). Interestingly though, only 26% of all respondents said they understood and had confidence in the plan specifically attributed to Scott Morrison, while 39% said they understood it and didn’t have confidence in it. The Essential Research poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
Note also that today is the day of California’s gubernatorial recall election, on which Adrian Beaumont will provide live updates in the post below.
For the love of God, can we have more of Nath in all his guises, to drown out the utterly boring Guytaur.
He is like my neighbours aircon system, constantly whining like a very loud mosquito that forever hovers.
Dave Sharma has been angling for promotion for a long while, keeping himself in the public eye and sucking up to the media.
Boerwarsays:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 6:33 pm
Steelydan says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 6:31 pm
…
“If people are unwilling to acknowledge error on their own side…’
_______________________________
So, remind us all. When was the last time you admitted that you were wRONg?
About one day ago I admitted it to Momma. As for life it happens all the time but I know my side of politics is not the font of all knowledge and good far from it. There has been a litany of mistakes Cooroy’s mention in his article of people overboard is a great example.
Steely,
You spend all your time on this blog haughtily traducing other posters because they don’t fit your preconception of political thinking.
Now you’re asking to be taken seriously as some sort of all purpose empathist.
We laugh and we laugh and we laugh.
Cut Snake
Facts are annoying things
A pity you can’t get away with rewriting history of passed legislation in parliament.
It’s noteworthy the LNP are trying it on over education curriculum
Ms. Tingle…. seems to have tied Frytheplanets support of Porter earlier today to PMs “enquiry”.. Scott will do them both.
He would have known Josh was going to come out for Porter
guytaur @ #235 Wednesday, September
In other words you know I am right.
You know you are blaming the Greens for Labor’s failure.
The Greens have a lot to be proud of. They have set out to keep Labor out of power. They have succeeded beyond their wildest…
N
You say this day after day.
The polls say voters don’t care.
You have said this for years. It’s been years of Labor partisans attacking the Greens and losing elections to the LNP.
@barriecassidy tweets
The Porter story. Weird reactions. Frydenberg backs Porter as Morrison sets him adrift. And the best Albo could come up with is the old hackneyed pub test. Turnbull was far more effective.
Mavis @ #449 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 6:03 pm
Thank you for this sad news, from an older bludger. He was a wonderfully inspiring man, a holy man.
From your link:
I’ve a Jack Spong story, which probably has had a run here before. I forget. Indulge me, and skip right on.
We heard him speak at the (liberal) Pitt Street Uniting Church Sydney many years ago. I was moved to tears at his understanding and ability to communicate the human condition, and how the Christianity of the Nazareth Man has been increasingly warped beyond recognition. I read his books – eg Living in Sin (rethinking human sexuality); Born of a Woman (rethinking the virgin birth). He basic fall back was Midrash – the contextual interpretation of the written word.
Sometime later, we were in New York one very cold Easter, before google was a thing, and on a sunny but chilly Sunday morning, thought we would seek out the Bishop, eventually ending up taking a cab from downtown Washington Sq to Newark (New Jersey), where we’d found he was the Bishop, and conducting a morning service, and finally we arrived at a white clapboard Church a little bit late, entered quietly and took our places at the back of this lovely place, nearly full, almost all African Americans, mostly female, and they with large broad brimmed hats heavy with paper flowers. It was like walking into a movie set.
At the sign of the peace, the exchange of the peace, there came the realisation that there were two unknown big white guys down the back! Someone came down, and asked gently who we were, we said we were from Sydney Australia, and had come to hear their Bishop, again. A ripple ran to the front, and Bishop Spong stopped the service to announce there were guests, and asked us to stand, and speak to the congregation about who we were. It was a wonderful feeling of true welcoming, and later in the church hall, the discovery of corn bread!
The world is much poorer for Bishop Spong’s leaving us.
Greensborough Growlersays:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 7:33 pm
Steely,
You spend all your time on this blog haughtily traducing other posters because they don’t fit your preconception of political thinking.
Now you’re asking to be taken seriously as some sort of all purpose empathist.
We laugh and we laugh and we laugh.
No you don’t otherwise my common sense post would not get under your skin. You don’t laugh your one of lefty’s that have gone the full loon like Coorey talks of, no sense of humour just hate.
I could like you go to an echo chamber like this to agree and be agreed with but I choose to come here to let a little light in.
Dave, “snake” Charma is one of those liberals who hide their liberal affiliations, no liberal party paraphernalia to be seen anywhere around them with their , “I’m not a liberal but BS”. A modern liberal who always votes the party line.
Needs to be kicked out next election.
Morgan poll’s ALP vote state-by-state vs the ALP 2PP at the 2019 federal election in each state.
State……………………Morgan result………………..2019 Federal election
NSW………………………54%………………………………………48.22%
VIC………………………..57%……………………………………….53.14%
QLD……………………….46%………………………………………41.56%
WA………………………….47%……………………………………..44.45%
SA………………………….51.5%…………………………………….50.71%
TAS………………………..55.5%…………………………………….55.96%
a) Interesting to see the closeness between Morgan and the state results in 2019 in both SA and TAS (two Liberal-run states that have done well during the pandemic).
b) In all other states there is a swing to Labor and I am happy with all of them except Qld…. I truly want to see a 2PP there getting as close as possible to 50%-50%. But if the ALP actually wins the 2PP in Qld, that would be a lovely ScuMo “anti-miracle”… Is that possible?…. Yes, it is, thanks to the Covid effect. The NSW result is possibly too optimistic for the ALP but it may still end up being about 52% ALP, again thanks to the Binchicken’s disastrous management of the Covid pandemic. In 2022, a pandemic may be a glue that may tie together state and federal politics in a federal election, more than ever before.
Yet more captivating posts in the Labor/Greens’ war this afternoon – fresh, nuanced discourse, and far more instructive than Labor v. Tories, the latter, the putative enemy of progressives, or so it was once thought.
There used to be a few Tories who’d advance a reasonable argument on this site, but now for the most part they seem to be slightly rabid, although Meher from time to time does some convincing impressions of a Labor man.
Someone referred to a Tory poster the other night. I can’t remember his name (it could’ve been fs). The person mentioned was “Sparrow”, who used different aliases. He seemed okay. Anyway, on with the motley.
__________________________________
I’ve always preferred voice to instruments; for the voice is subject to so many imperfections – eg, self-inflicted (Björling), a lack of commitment (Callas), a cold, (Pavarotti). Whereas a violin is, for example, always a violin, and save for the likes of Toscanini, Karajan, Barbirolli conductors are a dime a dozen, even Bonynge got/gets more than the occasional gig.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Unq7AL2rXnw
“Morrison is signalling that he is ready to throw Porter under the bus, if required.”
How many seats are on this bus? Is it a mini bus or double deck coach?
Steely,
Coorey declaring Gladys the saviour of the Nation always brings a chuckle.
Look whose scratching their itches now.
I am still laughing at you.
@VoicesofKooyong tweets
We’ve just heard on #abc730 that @JoshFrydenberg has backed Christian Porter on his blind trust.
Our survey shows that Kooyong residents want an honest and ethical MP, do you think it is honest and ethical for Frydenberg to back Porter on this matter?
#auspol #VoicesofKooyong
Would it be a good look for Porter to become a senior judge with all the baggage he is carrying?
Could Labor give him the boot or do judges have some sort of tenure?
Alpo
Thanks for the analysis. As I said yesterday, the gloomy feeling around another Liberal miracle is not backed up by the numbers.
Lizziesays:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 7:24 pm
Dave Sharma has been angling for promotion for a long while, keeping himself in the public eye and sucking up to the media.
He should he is one of the liberals up and comers we have quite a few Hastie, Leeser, Wilson, Patterson to name a few all the with ability. Where as the ALP is so full of lifers that would find it hard to get work after parliament so little renewal, KK case in point, get rid of a smart young woman they could have kept KK on elsewhere but they a lacking depth of talent in the ALP.
Clever accounting only takes you so far!
Craig Emerson
@DrCraigEmerson
·
1m
My submission to the PM’s new Porter review: If a Minister and former member of the National Security Committee of Cabinet can receive donations from anonymous sources without disclosing their identities to the public then he’s an ongoing risk to Australia’s national security.
@abc730 tweets
Growing dissatisfaction with federal politics sees Coalition seats under threat from independents. #abc730 #auspol @jesskatedavis
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-15/voices-movement-independents-fight-for-coalition-safe-seats/100446686
Nice to see Scott Morrison asking his own department to investigate himself and the way he has dealt with Porter, who has just been given large bucks by an anonymous donor using a purpose-designed money obscuring device.
Hopefully this investigation won’t tread the path of previous PMO investigations which routinely either find that their boss has done nothing wrong whatsoever, or runs out of time after a convenient sub judice exemption is discovered rendering the whole shebang, sadly, pointless.
I’m confident that THIS time things will turn out differently.
Albo Turnbull comparisons… I noticed Turnbull was doing he’s various Zoom interviews today standing ( not seated) in front of varying Indigenous virtual backgrounds… good quality footage, professional.
Labor seem wooden with their setup… out of date even.
BB,
We have a 50 yo man who doesn’t know right from wrong as our PM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aF4XOtaFp0k
That aged well..
Greensborough Growler says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 8:25 pm
“BB,
We have a 50 yo man who doesn’t know right from wrong as our PM.”
But he knows righteousness – especially self-righteousness.
Truly, Madly, Briefly:
Surely they’re at least a pantomime?
Now, this is what I’m talkin’ about …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-15/voices-movement-independents-fight-for-coalition-safe-seats/100446686
Find an independent you can support who promises action on the issues that are important to you, and give them your first preference. Then, by all means give your subsequent preference to whatever party of inaction you prefer. Sure, we aren’t going to win in every electorate. But we only have to win in a few to make a huge difference.
It’s the only way to be sure.
Get ready for the Morrison-Murdoch 2-part “cunning plan” to keep the forces of greed and stupidity in control:
https://twitter.com/MrKRudd/status/1436967664031715330
Apparently, Brittany Higgins alleged rapist is in court tomorrow.
If you vote independent then Liberal party you are guaranteed to get zero climate action.
The last time a Labor government worked with independents we had climate action, anyone who wants to pretend this didn’t happen are bad faith actors!
Nicko @ #532 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 8:52 pm
Ummm … 🙁
Nicko
Exactly. Green and Independents worked together across the political aisle with Labor.
Action happened. All the whining about losing an election doesn’t change that fact.
Samantha Maiden
@samanthamaiden
·
7m
Either way this is where the advice is headed
If there’s been a breach of code that’s a big problem. If there’s no breach? In theory, every minister of crown can start whooping it up with blind trusts and mystery donors ?
Quote Tweet
Question: did the blind trust idea ever go to the governance committee of cabinet? Hard to understand why it didn’t? And of it did these guys are all dragged into the mess https://directory.gov.au/commonwealth-parliament/cabinet/cabinet-committees/governance-committee
Steve777 @ #530 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 8:46 pm
He’ll get plenty of support from the Sinohpobic morons here on PB 🙁
>judges have some sort of tenure
They have tenure. There have been a few judges in the past that one side or another would desperately like to have gotten rid of but no can do. (I think it requires cause and a vote of both houses of parliament)
That said, an independent inquiry or two could make future Judge Porter’s position untenable.
Australian judges retire at 70.
Hmmm….i thought that “blind trusts” were management entities that politicians use to care-take their private assets while they are in positions where they could have to make decisions that would directly affect the value of those assets ??
I dont think “blind trust” actually has any relevance as far a Porter is concerned. Its obviously a trust that has someone managing it that can make decisions about paying out $ from that trust. What is their interest in Porter that caused them to authorize payment of a large sum to lawyers?? You need disclosure on that for all the same reasons that you need disclosure on political donations. Who could now have an expectation of payback from a senior minister because they paid his substantial legal fees?? Has the same entity done this before and who with??
Many questions that are in fact actually important.
A PM department enquiry. Possibly a job for Phil Gaetjens? But now Morrison has the chance to get rid of one, perhaps two, potential rivals.
@BevanShields tweets
Breaking from @Gallo_Ways and Rob Harris:
Several federal cabinet ministers were called to a top-secret meeting in Canberra on Wednesday ahead of a major international development expected on Thursday morning
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/ministers-granted-border-exemptions-to-attend-urgent-meeting-in-canberra-20210915-p58rzn.html
Dead cat time
Inquiring minds…
Player One:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 8:40 pm
[‘Then, by all means give your subsequent preference to whatever party of inaction you prefer.’]
So, you seem to be advocating a parliament comprised of independents? How would that work? Following federation, the party system evolved lest state rivalries would’ve stifled a commonwealth, the “unrepresentative swill” in the Senate providing a tether to balance the populated states against the lesser. Oh, and it’s pleasing that you’ve ceased your KKK references – though bull may’ve met with red.
Oh dear…Looks like FriendlyJordie has snaffled Craig Kelly’s old domain name..
As usual not too subtle.
https://craigkellymp.com
Justin Barbour
Ministers have been granted exemptions to travel to Canberra for an urgent Cabinet meeting. https://t.co/pKIWLJNQYD
Possibly connected: Pres. Biden has a press conference scheduled to talk about an unspecified national security initiative @ 7am AEST. https://t.co/llq9A51Zzk
With the A-Team in charge, what could possibly go wrong?
Or is the “major international development” another part shipment of Pfizer borrowed from Singapore or UK?
It looks like Comrade Xi is cracking down not only on big tech, but casinos as well. Here are the Chinese casino companies prices today.. lucky Jamie Packer got out
Bushfire Bill:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 9:03 pm
[‘Australian judges retire at 70.’]
Yes, but that only applies to High Court and Federal judges. In some states, judges have tenure to age 72 and there was a move to move this to ’75, moved by no less than Moses, SC, who looks around 55, not a grey hair:
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/push-to-raise-judicial-age-of-senility-from-72-to-75-20170824-gy3frr.html
I think ScoMo might be happy to be able to boot Porter to the backbench. Sure he will cry crocodile tears but why would he want any distraction hanging around?