Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Some better numbers for the Morrison government, on voting intention from Roy Morgan and COVID-19 management from Essential Research.

Roy Morgan put out its now regular fortnightly poll of federal voting intention yesterday, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 52.5-47.5, down from 54.5-45.5 on a fortnight ago and its narrowest result in two months. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38.5% (I believe the Morgan release is incorrect when it puts it at 39.5%, which would be up by two and is different from the headline), Labor is down three-and-a-half to 35%, the Greens are up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation is steady on 3%.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last poll, and a swing of around 6% compared with the 2019 election), 57-43 in Victoria (in from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 4%) 51.5-48.5 in South Australia (in from 57.5-42.5, a swing of around 1%) and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (in from 63.5-36.5, a slight swing to the Liberals), while the Coalition leads 54-46 in Queensland (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%) and 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing of around 2.5% — and the Coalition’s best data point from this state all year). The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2753.

Also out today was the regular Essential Research survey, containing neither voting intention nor leadership ratings on this occasion. The regular results on federal and state governments’ handling of COVID-19 is included as always, which record improvement for both the federal government and the governments of New South Wales and Victoria. The federal government’s good rating is up four to 43% and its poor rating is down one to 35%; the New South Wales government’s good rating is up six to 46%; and the Victorian government’s good rating is up six to 50%. For the other states with their small sample sizes, Queensland’s good rating is down two to 65%, Western Australia’s is up nine to 87% and South Australia’s is down nine to 67%.

Further questions from the survey suggest Western Australians and to a lesser extent Queenslanders are firmly of the view that states without outbreaks should be able to keep their borders closed for as long as they think necessary (67% and 55% respectively), but that only a minority of those in New South Wales and Victoria do so (28% and 31%). Interestingly though, only 26% of all respondents said they understood and had confidence in the plan specifically attributed to Scott Morrison, while 39% said they understood it and didn’t have confidence in it. The Essential Research poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

Note also that today is the day of California’s gubernatorial recall election, on which Adrian Beaumont will provide live updates in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,526 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. Protests against teetering developer Evergrande spread to more Chinese cities on Wednesday after a company offer of property and parking spaces instead of cash repayments of its debts was rejected by investors.

    The troubled property titan has warned it may not be able to service its colossal debts of more than $300 billion, seeding panic among property buyers, bond holders and contractors while fanning fears of a default that could ripple through the world’s second-biggest economy.

    Chanting “Evergrande, give us our money back”, they were met by a heavy police presence but refused to disperse.

    “They offered us (ownership of) shops, kindergartens and parking units… but we can’t use them. None of us agree to this,” said a woman who gave her surname only as Wang.

    Experts say the Hong Kong-listed firm has more than a million units pre-paid by customers yet to be built, adding to the sense of dread among Chinese investors, many of them first-time buyers trying to get a foot on the runaway property market.

  2. B.S. Fairman at 9:55 pm

    I think ScoMo might be happy to be able to boot Porter to the backbench. Sure he will cry crocodile tears but why would he want any distraction hanging around?

    From where SfM is standing he might think it great that attention is “over there” rather than “over here” where he is.

  3. @Redistrict tweets

    Breaking: there are a lot more Democrats than Republicans in California.

    Fortunately for Republicans, they don’t need to win any Biden +29 states/districts to win back Congress in 2022.

  4. Submarines are quiet, deadly and expensive. Boats like those in the Virginia class, which is a U.S. attack submarine, can cost US$3.4 billion and take seven years to build. The Navy has ambitious goals for the future of the underwater fleet, but some problems could stand in the way.

    The last tiny vestiges of an independent Australia… gone

  5. Moses, SC, who looks around 55, not a grey hair…

    I have the distinction of being cross-examined by Moses S.C. several years ago in a case involving Caltex and one of its franchisees. An oily, scary guy. A smiling assassin. But I didn’t crack (the franchisee was someone I had done some programming for).

    The franchisee won his case, collecting $450,000 as damages.

    His solicitor was not so lucky. He was later murdered: shot dead by a hit-man in his Inner West driveway, in front of his wife. The assassination was unrelated to the Caltex case. It was all in the papers. The solicitor was a nice bloke, but his accountant didn’t think so.

    Those were the days.

  6. “Potentially in favour of US Virginia class nuclear boats.”

    Leasing arrangement if so, and ties us to the US for all maintenance on the capability for decades. Plausible. Maybe do that instead of upgrading Collins as an interim capability??

    If it happens it could well be a lead in to building nuclear reactors as the right wing nutbags “solution”to climate change. 🙁

  7. Ben Packham @bennpackham
    Hearing further suggestions that it’s US subs based here. We will know more at 0700.

    That’s ok then, we can afford to lose Darwin & FNQ in a first strike

  8. Sceptic

    Also if it’s US nuclear subs it will be the same story as nuclear ships.

    That won’t help the build nuclear power station in Australia for climate argument.

  9. Porter claims he doesn’t know who bankrolled him in his suit against Aunty. I believe him, but thousands wouldn’t.
    The fact is, he was the 1st law officer and is rumoured to be appointed to the Federal Court bench. He should just find employment with Gina or Twiggy but he’d serve no useful purpose to them out of office – not suggesting that they’d improperly attempt to influence him to decide matters in their favour but perception is everything.

  10. “If it happens it could well be a lead in to building nuclear reactors as the right wing nutbags “solution”to climate change. ”

    Not just right-wing nutbags, fella.

  11. For a bunch of people who have complained about the cost of climate action for well over a decade, it’s pretty ironic that conservatives (not just conservatives, I acknowledge) are obsessed with nuclear which is basically the most expensive non-fossil fuel out there. Wind and solar are cheaper, even accounting for batteries/storage.

  12. California: Note that Caitlyn Jenner actually came 13th out of the 46 candidates who stood for governor. The Republican party is perhaps not ready for a transgender candidate instead preferring people like the bear wrestler who got 4 times more votes than her. The media however seemed to fall more for the celebrity candidate this time than the people.

  13. @stephendriezic tweets

    ***Lots*** of rumours in Canberra tonight about a major announcement expected tomorrow. Difficult to separate fact from speculation. But several diplomatic missions are being briefed tomorrow about a “major announcement” which is widely expected to focus on defence issues

  14. Interesting, not uncommon for a solicitor to be the subject of death threats, particularly in family law matters.

    It wasn’t a family law matter. It was greed, pure and simple.

    Tom was hit by an assassin talked into it by Tom’s accountant, who had misappropriated $83,000 of Tom’s money (destined for the ATO).

    I can still remember Tom, in the office where he was murdered (several years beforehand, however), taking me through my evidence due the next day:

    “No fucking around! ‘Yes’, ‘No’, and ‘I don’t recall’. Mate, if that dickhead doesn’t ask the right question, then don’t volunteer an answer.”

    Classic advice, which has stood me in good stead ever since.

    The “dickhead” he was referring to was Mr. Moses.

  15. Provided we own the associated technology and assets and expertise, and don’t just throw money at leasing it or buying a prefab black-box from some overseas corporate.

    Agreed. We should be the purveyors of said black boxes.

  16. @bevvo tweets

    #Breaking AFR reporting the French submarine deal is dead and Australia will partner with US and UK going forward. Announcement expected at 7am tomorrow @abcnews


    I really hope the AFR got this wrong so we can laugh at them tomorrow

  17. From the Oz:
    Porter to step away over $1m legal fund
    Christian Porter is likely to leave the frontbench, after Scott Morrison sought urgent advice about whether a secretive $1m donation to pay for his legal fees breached ministerial guidelines.

  18. Mike

    Still haven’t gotten around to watching that. Rewatched “that” Gillard speech today tho and thoroughly enjoyed it. Best part was seeing Abbott’s transition from smirking to stony-faced.

  19. ScissorsTHE OTHER SIDE Podcast
    UNCONFIRMED Sources say several federal ministers recalled to Canberra tonight for urgent top secret meeting. Dutton & Payne dialled in from DC. Albanese + 3shadow ministers briefed. Big announcement expected from US at 7am AEST. #auspol


    Biden to announce joint deal with U.K. and Australia on advanced defense-tech sharing
    One source said there is a nuclear-defense infrastructure to the three-way pact known as AUUKUS.

    09/15/2021 08:55 AM EDT

    President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a Congressional staffer told POLITICO.

    The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the nations to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities.

    One of the people said there will be a nuclear element to the pact in which the U.S. and U.K. share their knowledge of how to maintain nuclear-defense infrastructure.

  21. @samanthamaiden tweets

    Breaking: “Blindsided” Senior cabinet ministers reveal they were left in dark over Christian Porter’s blind trust plan as speculation mounts it could see him depart the frontbench… via @newscomauHQ

  22. Well this will set off debate.

    @AndrewBGreene tweets

    #breaking United States has confirmed it will help Australia identify the best way to acquire nuclear powered submarine capability


    United States has announced a new “trilateral security” partnership will be formed with Australia and the United Kingdom, to be announced formally by @JoeBiden, @ScottMorrisonMP and @BorisJohnson. It will work on “advanced defence capabilities” in the Indo-Pacific

  23. United Arab Emirates are by one measure the most vaccinated country. 90% of the entire population (not just adults) have had at least one dose. 79% have two doses.

    What about cases? Judge for yourself:

    Since late June their (admittedly high at the time) cases have kept on going down. They will soon have fewer cases per person than Australia.

    We don’t know if herd immunity is possible, but effective herd immunity (combination of vaccination and good public health) might just be a thing.

  24. known as AUUKUS

    Terrible name/acronym.

    Sounding it out, it sounds like Orcus, one of the Roman underworld gods – who is considered a bit of a demonic figure in many of his depictions. Also, punisher of broken oaths – take that however you want to in this context…

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