Live commentary
12pm Thursday: With all election day votes counted, No to Recall leads by 63.9-36.1. Late mail and provisional votes will be counted over the next four weeks. When everything is counted, Newsom is likely to exceed his 61.9-38.1 margin in 2018, but fall a little short of Biden’s 29-point California margin in 2020.
4pm As the election day vote comes in, Newsom’s lead is dropping slightly. But No to Recall still leads by 65.7-34.3 with an estimated 66% in. Remember that counting will continue for about four weeks after today.
1:50pm CNN finally CALLS it for No to Recall. In 2018, Newsom won the governor’s race against a Republican by 62-38. Can he exceed that margin? Polls did not have him far enough ahead.
1:42pm No to Recall leading by a massive 67.5-32.5 with nearly 8 million votes in. Margin likely to decrease a bit as election day votes come in, but 17% of election day votes are already in.
1:25pm Dave Wasserman has CALLED it for Newsom and is off to bed (it’s 11:25pm on the US East Coast).
1:17pm No winning by almost 70-30 after over 5 million counted.
1:13pm No to Recall winning by 64-36 with over 2.2 million votes in already.
1:07pm No immediate call, but the exit poll has a wide margin for No. The first results from San Diego have No leading by 60.6-39.4 from over 800,000 votes.
12:52pm Wednesday Polls close in eight minutes. There is an exit poll. If that exit poll shows No to Recall winning by about the same0 margin as in pre-election polls, the recall is likely to be called as soon as polls close.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at the University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The final FiveThirtyEight aggregate for today’s California recall election shows Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom leading Recall by 15.8%, out from 10.1% last week and just 1.2% three weeks ago.
Newsom has been able to make this election a contest between him, and the likely winner of the replacement vote, radio shock jock Republican Larry Elder. With no prominent Democrats contesting the replacement vote, Newsom’s lead over Recall has rapidly increased in a Democratic stronghold.
Early mail votes will be released soon after polls close at 1pm AEST. Given the polling, it is likely that the election will be called for Newsom once we see these votes. Election day vote counting will go until the evening AEST. California keeps counting late mail and provisional votes for four weeks after election day.
The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of Joe Biden’s ratings has him at 49.2% disapprove, 45.9% approve (net -3.3); his net approval is up half a point since last week. Biden last week announced vaccine mandates to combat COVID. In a Morning Consult poll, voters supported requiring all employers with over 100 employees to mandate vaccination or weekly tests by a 58-36 margin.
People’s Party rise hurts Conservatives in Canada
The Canadian election is next Tuesday September 21 AEST. Canada uses first past the post to elect its 338 members of parliament.
In the CBC Poll Tracker, the Liberals have regained the lead with 31.9%, followed by the Conservatives on 31.3%, the NDP 19.4%, the Quebec Bloc 6.6%, the populist right People’s Party (PPC) 6.4%, and the Greens 3.3%. Last week, the Conservatives had 33.5% and the PPC 4.8%.
Under FPTP, small parties on the left and right spoil their better aligned major party’s chances. The Tracker has the Liberals seat lead over the Conservatives out to 151-122 from 140-133 last week, with 35 NDP and 29 Bloc.
Most of Canada uses staggered poll opening and closing times, in which polls in the trailing time zone open and close an hour earlier than those in the leading time zone. The exceptions are polls for seats in Atlantic Canada. Here are the Canadian poll closing times next Tuesday AEST:
By 9:30am, polls in the four small provinces of Atlantic Canada (32 of the 338 seats) are closed. Newfoundland (seven seats) closes 30 minutes earlier. At 11:30am, the large majority of polls close. At 12pm, all polls are closed in Canada, with British Columbia (42 seats) closing.
Polls relatively stable in Germany
The Politico poll aggregate for the September 26 German election has the centre-left SPD leading with 25%, followed by the conservative CDU/CSU on 21%, the Greens 16%, the pro-business FDP 12%, the far-right AfD 11% and the far-left Left 6%. The overall vote for left parties leads the overall right by 47-44 (48-44 last week).
I described the German electoral system in my previous article. Parties that either win at least 5% of the party vote or three of the 299 FPTP seats receive a proportional allocation of seats. The Left party is close to the 5% threshold in current polls, but won five FPTP seats in 2017. If they hold three of these seats, they will qualify for proportionality. It is unlikely that the SPD and the Greens will win enough seats on their own for a left majority, so this is crucial.
Conservative government ousted in Norway
At Monday’s Norwegian election, Labour won 48 of the 169 seats (down one since 2017), the Conservatives 36 (down nine), the agrarian Centre 28 (up nine), the right-wing Progress 21 (down six), the Socialist Left 13 (up two) and the Red eight (up seven). The Conservative PM conceded, and it is likely Labour will govern with support from the Centre and Socialists (89 seats for that combination exceeding the 85 needed for a majority).
What time are the polls closing today in California and when will begin to see the results? Or will the large number of postals mean things won’t be firm for a day or two?
See this paragraph in the article.
Early mail votes will be released soon after polls close at 1pm AEST. Given the polling, it is likely that the election will be called for Newsom once we see these votes. Election day vote counting will go until the evening AEST. California keeps counting late mail and provisional votes for four weeks after election day.
I will also note that the Conservatives in Canada are being hurt by the anti-vax fringe of their supporters and O’Toole’s inability to firmly support vaccination in the meanwhile for free of driving even more voters to the People party (who are openly anti-vax).
I suspect the Liberals will hang on in the end but without a majority meaning the whole election was fought for naught.
It is certainly coming in quick at the moment. 43% in already and No is well and truly in the lead 70 to 30. I think we can call it now.
Turnout last November was 17.5 million in California which was 80% of the electorate.
Last Governor’s race was 12.4 million votes or 63.3% of the electorate. I doubt that they will get even that high this time. None of the other candidates really got anyone excited (unlike last time when there was a massive star running and that doomed the governor).
What a staggering waste of time and money.
I had to laugh when I saw Larry Elder has a white girlfriend…. Key and Peele used to have do skits about Black Republicans who all dressed the same and all had white wives.
A solid win that highlights what a farce this recall was from the outset. Hopefully they amend the process in some way going forward.
Thanks for the updates and commentary Adrian. Made for an enjoyable day.
It looks like it was a good idea for Democrats to put all of their eggs in the “No” basket, rather than run a backup candidate. Had, say, the Lt. Governor also ran as a candidate, just in case, it suddenly would have given liberal voters a reason to vote for the Recall, especially if they like her better. Added to that, the Republicans rallying behind Elder, therefore putting a face on the Yes side, helped Newsom greatly too. In the dying days of the campaign, it wasn’t a recall vote, it was an election between Gavin Newsom (D) and Larry Elder (R) – guess who wins that contest every time in California.
How this Recall differed from 2003 (besides the issues behind it) is that, back then, Republicans were much more popular than Democrats and it was possible for a Republican to win a statewide race in CA under the right conditions, Arnold Schwarzenegger – a liberal Republican who was an international movie star and household name, therefore having lots of electoral appeal even among liberals – was the main Republican alternative, and the Democrats foolishly ran Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante as a contingency candidate, therefore giving partisan Democrats a way to safely vote in favour of recalling the Governor and still supporting a Democrat.
From what I understand, changing the Recall laws requires a constitutional amendment, which is passed by referendum. Voters may be hesitant to completely remove the Recall (as they might feel like it’s power being taken away from them.) One suggestion is to propose an amendment that instead makes it that, if a Governor is Recalled, the Lt. Governor automatically takes their place (as they do with all other instances of vacancy.) Still requires a referendum but it might work. And it meaning a recalled Democrat is merely replaced by another Democrat might disincentivise right wing activists from abusing the process again.
Seconded. Good work as always, Adrian.
This will affect Canada’s election. Alberta’s approach had been lauded by some on the Right including the opposition leader for a live-with-the-virus approach, and now that have done a complete about face because the situation is desperate.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/kenney-shandro-hinshaw-update-covid-19-1.6177210
Alberta to launch proof-of-vaccination program, declares health emergency amid surge in COVID-19 cases
https://scrimshawunscripted.substack.com/p/canada-kenneys-campaign-bombshell
“On the outside of Alberta politics of this, I have to say, the Tories are completely f***ed. This story will be the only thing O’Toole is asked about today, and tomorrow probably, and whatever message he wants to sell about Toryism and Justin Trudeau will be lost in a fight about Kenney, vaccines, passports, and why O’Toole praised Kenney so much. “Premier Kenney has navigated this COVID-19 pandemic far better than the federal government” is a real line O’Toole has said before, and it’s on tape.”
Not really a surprise that the vote margin was not as large as the 2020 election as young people are bit harder to get to the polls but it is not a huge difference.
Are you doing a live Canadian Election blog tomorrow and what time are we going to see results? Is there a live TV stream of news channel out of the deep North?