Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Some better numbers for the Morrison government, on voting intention from Roy Morgan and COVID-19 management from Essential Research.

Roy Morgan put out its now regular fortnightly poll of federal voting intention yesterday, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 52.5-47.5, down from 54.5-45.5 on a fortnight ago and its narrowest result in two months. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38.5% (I believe the Morgan release is incorrect when it puts it at 39.5%, which would be up by two and is different from the headline), Labor is down three-and-a-half to 35%, the Greens are up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation is steady on 3%.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last poll, and a swing of around 6% compared with the 2019 election), 57-43 in Victoria (in from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 4%) 51.5-48.5 in South Australia (in from 57.5-42.5, a swing of around 1%) and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (in from 63.5-36.5, a slight swing to the Liberals), while the Coalition leads 54-46 in Queensland (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%) and 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing of around 2.5% — and the Coalition’s best data point from this state all year). The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2753.

Also out today was the regular Essential Research survey, containing neither voting intention nor leadership ratings on this occasion. The regular results on federal and state governments’ handling of COVID-19 is included as always, which record improvement for both the federal government and the governments of New South Wales and Victoria. The federal government’s good rating is up four to 43% and its poor rating is down one to 35%; the New South Wales government’s good rating is up six to 46%; and the Victorian government’s good rating is up six to 50%. For the other states with their small sample sizes, Queensland’s good rating is down two to 65%, Western Australia’s is up nine to 87% and South Australia’s is down nine to 67%.

Further questions from the survey suggest Western Australians and to a lesser extent Queenslanders are firmly of the view that states without outbreaks should be able to keep their borders closed for as long as they think necessary (67% and 55% respectively), but that only a minority of those in New South Wales and Victoria do so (28% and 31%). Interestingly though, only 26% of all respondents said they understood and had confidence in the plan specifically attributed to Scott Morrison, while 39% said they understood it and didn’t have confidence in it. The Essential Research poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

Note also that today is the day of California’s gubernatorial recall election, on which Adrian Beaumont will provide live updates in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,526 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. All this talk about Diversity in the Australian parliament, perhaps we could look to out friends across the Pacific to see what diversity is all about in their leaders debate

  2. NZ 66% at least one dose
    AU 55% at least one dose

    What will be interesting here is the asymptote. I think NZ has more potential to get past 80% than we do. Because they’re better lead and more cohesive.

  3. Portugal is another example. 81% fully vaccinated (that’s entire population) and their infection rate has been steadily declining over the past 6 weeks.

  4. The Biden administration’s push to roll out coronavirus vaccine booster shots this month has largely been shaped by unpublished data from Israel’s vaccination campaign, according to two individuals familiar with the matter.

    The Israel data, which is set to be made public as soon as this week, shows that the Pfizer vaccine’s ability to prevent severe disease and hospitalization is waning over time — as is the shot’s protection against mild and moderate disease, the two sources said. The country began administering boosters to people over 60 in July and has now expanded it to people over 30, but it has released relatively little information so far about the effect of the booster campaign.

    The Biden administration has long relied on data from Israel, which has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, to inform its Covid-19 response. Top officials from the White House, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration have analyzed the latest Israeli data for weeks, concluding that the U.S. should begin administering boosters this fall, another senior administration official said.

    Although the CDC has published a series of targeted studies that suggest Covid-19 vaccines’ effectiveness against infection is decreasing, particularly in the elderly, the Israeli data is more comprehensive and more alarming, three sources who have reviewed the data told POLITICO on Monday.

  5. Hillbilly

    There’s also evidence that the effect of AstraZeneca wanes over time.. Down to 60% in 90 days after 2nd shot iirc.

    So when is our government going to tell us?

  6. Twice in the final months of the Trump administration, the country’s top military officer was so fearful that the president’s actions might spark a war with China that he moved urgently to avert armed conflict.

    In a pair of secret phone calls, General Mark A Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, assured his Chinese counterpart, General Li Zuocheng of the People’s Liberation Army, that the United States would not strike, according to a new book by Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward and national political reporter Robert Costa. One call took place on October 30, 2020, four days before the election that unseated president Donald Trump, and the other on January 8, 2021, two days after the Capitol siege carried out by his supporters in a quest to cancel the vote.

    The first call was prompted by Milley’s review of intelligence suggesting the Chinese believed the United States was preparing to attack. That belief, the authors write, was based on tensions over military exercises in the South China Sea, and deepened by Trump’s belligerent rhetoric toward China.

    “General Li, I want to assure you that the American government is stable and everything is going to be OK,” Milley told him. “We are not going to attack or conduct any kinetic operations against you.”

    In the book’s telling, Milley went so far as to pledge he would alert his counterpart in the event of a US attack, stressing the rapport they’d established through a back channel. “General Li, you and I have known each other for now five years. If we’re going to attack, I’m going to call you ahead of time. It’s not going to be a surprise.”

  7. If ever there was any question about the Greens being total idiots with a narcissist complex to rival Trump …

    Michael Rowland
    The Greens will start referring to MP’s and Senators as ‘shadow ministers’ in anticipation of possible power-sharing deal with Labor after the next

    Again they are LNP enablers.

  8. AOC does it again with the gown she wore to the Met Gala in New York overnight:

    AOC is THE most media savvy politician in the world today. You have to be if you want people to notice your message. Good on her for taking her message to the heart of the wealthy elite’s sun. It’s a message that the world needs to hear. The wealthy elites have made off like thieves in the night with vast swathes of money that could be doing good for the poorest among us.

    Same in Australia, where the wealthy are allowed to keep their undeserved JobKeeper payments and the poor have to pay theirs back. Not to mention how the mindset of the Prosperity Gospel is being entrenched in society, where the mindset of Jesus Christ, who gave his wealth and possessions to the poor and homeless, would be better. Which is what AOC believes as well.

    It’s way beyond time we had a discussion about wealth distribution.

  9. The Greens will start referring to MP’s and Senators as ‘shadow ministers’ in anticipation of possible power-sharing deal with Labor after the next

    I see their maturity hasn’t improved over the years.

  10. Confessions @ #13 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 7:01 am

    The Greens will start referring to MP’s and Senators as ‘shadow ministers’ in anticipation of possible power-sharing deal with Labor after the next

    I see their maturity hasn’t improved over the years.

    Still thinking like University ‘politicians’.

    Cue Firefox to sneer at us and copy and paste reams of Greens’ press releases and Tweets about it in 3..2..1

  11. Frednk says:
    Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 7:09 am
    So now all Green Members are leaders and all green senators are shadow ministers. Talk about a delusional lot.

    The Greens face an existential threat.. the possibility of a Labor government with a mandate to implement social & environmental progressive policies will see the Greens slip from 10% to less than 4% .. rivalling one nation.

  12. The Greens are struggling for relevance. I had to Google who their federal leader is, I’d completely forgotten it’s Adam Bandt such is his absence from the media the past 18mths or so!

  13. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Lucy Carroll reports that emergency departments were overloaded with a record number of seriously ill patients in the three months leading up to the Delta outbreak, with nearly one-third of patients arriving at NSW hospitals not treated on time.
    Shane Wright tells us that, for the first time, the OECD says the RBA – which sets interest rates and guides economic policy – should be the focus of an independent review.
    Meanwhile, Harris reports that the Reserve Bank has urged governments to deal with tax and social security policies to bring surging house prices under control after new figures showed the biggest jump in nationwide property values on record.
    Australia has lost considerable credit as an international citizen in recent years, in part because of meanness with aid, but also because of its retreat from multinational systems, including combined action on climate change, writes Jack Waterford ahead of the PM’s trip to the US for a Quad meeting.
    Paul Keating has backed in Kristina Keneally.
    Rob Harris writes that Adam Bandt wants voters to welcome the prospect of a hung Parliament after the next federal election in a strategy to help Labor form a minority government.
    Anthony Galloway reports that a cyber attack is being reported in Australia every 7.8 minutes on average as sophisticated hackers, including foreign governments, target the nation’s critical infrastructure and essential services such as hospitals, food distribution and electricity systems.
    Phil Coorey tells us that Labor and the Greens are demanding cabinet minister Christian Porter disclose the identity of those behind a blind trust who have helped him with a hefty legal bill.
    Scott Morrison faces fresh pressure over Australia’s lack of emissions reduction ambition from the Biden administration, with the US President putting the “climate crisis” firmly on the agenda for the first ever face-to-face Quadrilateral Security Dialogue leaders’ meeting next week, writes the AFR’s Andrew Tillett.
    Lisa Cox tells us that analysts are saying Australia was late on renewable energy and is now making same mistakes with electric vehicles.
    Australia’s climate failures are costing its economy – and Scott Morrison’s government is being blamed, says Greg Jericho.
    The government is determined to keep National Cabinet’s work a secret. This should worry us all, argues law professor, Cheryl Saunders.
    Legal cases both here and overseas highlight reasons why our theocratic Government needs to make a clear separation between church and state, writes Max Wallace.,15515
    “Why are ‘religious’ organisations given tax free status?”, asks the AIMN’s RosemaryJ36.
    Margaret Simons agrees with some of what Leigh Sales complains about over social media abuse but she does point out the some of the interactions are justifiably critical.
    Former corporate cop Greg Medcraft says digital currencies issued by central banks and “stablecoins” have the potential to unleash major changes in finance. Clancy Yeates tells us about Medcraft’s thoughts.
    With no idea when caps on arrivals will be lifted, Singapore Airlines has cancelled at least one flight a day into Australia over the next three months, reports Chris Barrett who tells us that the hopes of scores of Australians trying to get home before Christmas have been shattered.
    COVID Delta is tempting us to trade lives for freedoms — a choice it had looked like we wouldn’t have to make, writes Peper Martin as we approach an end point.
    An on this subject, Peter Lewis writes about an old ethical dilemma has become Australia’s grim reality – and this can’t be spun, he says.
    In this excellent contribution, John Dwyer says, “The truth is that with the exception of a vaccination target with which all agree, there would seem to be little appreciation of the urgent need to have nationwide uniformity in the development and application of the non-vaccination strategies that will be essential for us to live, together, more enjoyable and productive lives despite the continuous presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.”
    Paul Bongiorno says that Denmark provides salutary lessons for lifting COVID restrictions. It’s a good read.
    The Age reports that a breakaway group within the Victorian education union is leading push for mandatory jabs ahead of return to class as anti-vax groups issue legal threats over vaccination promotion.
    Melbourne’s Jewish community has been subjected to a wave of anti-Semitic abuse via social media, graffiti attacks and verbal threats following recent breaches of public health orders by a small number of ultra-Orthodox worshippers. It’s not pretty.
    The Australian Services Union’s Natalie Lang argues that the government needs to enshrine pandemic isolation leave into the national employment standards.
    Planning alone will not fix Sydney’s housing affordability crisis, explains Rob Stokes, the NSW Minister for Planning and Public Spaces.
    Uneven vaccination rates are just a part of the challenge looming in our region, explains Matt Wade who urges Australia to step up over the economic calamity on our doorstep.
    One of the country’s major aged care providers has warned international border restrictions are beginning to cause acute workforce problems, which will only get worse in the next 18 months, writes Christopher Knaus.
    With the government’s response to the pandemic starting to feel like its treatment of environmental issues, the absence of a cohesive policy has again forced the corporate community to set the agenda, complains Elizabeth Knight.
    Former PM Tony Abbott has criticised people for dobbing him in for not wearing a mask in public, which is hypocritical considering his past, writes Andrew P Street.,15514
    The next election is likely to continue the grim outlook for welfare beneficiaries regardless of whether the Coalition or Labor wins. A healthy democracy should do a lot better than this. There is no shortage of good ideas, writes Brian Touhey.
    According to Joel Gibson, some “junk insurance” policies added to credit cards, home loans, car loans and personal loans may have hidden benefits for those suffering from coronavirus hardship.
    One of our favourites, Chris Uhlmann, tells us why Keating’s dovish advice on China should be scorned.
    A disgusted Julie Szego writes about the ‘evil brilliance’ of the Texas abortion laws. Really, America is rooted!
    China’s ambassador, Zheng Zeguang ,has been blocked from attending a summer reception at the Palace of Westminster in an escalation of tensions between London and Beijing.
    General Mark A Milley called his Chinese counterpart before the 2020 election and after the January 6 siege in a bid to avert armed conflict, according to a new book by Bob Woodward and Robert Costa.
    Days after former US president George W. Bush called domestic and foreign terrorists “children of the same foul spirit”, former president Donald Trump has lashed out, saying Bush should not be lecturing Americans about national security.

    Cartoon Corner

    David Rowe

    Peter Broelman

    Simon Letch

    Cathy Wilcox

    John Shakespeare

    Matt Golding

    Fiona Katauskas

    Mark Knight

    John Spooner

    From the US

  14. DisplayName says:
    Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 7:40 am

    The Greens have been doing this very public counting of their chickens before each election for a while. I don’t think it’s working.
    It works for the most corrupt Federal government since Federation by eroding support for Labor in rural and regional electorates every single election.

  15. Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain announced a plan on Tuesday to offer all those age 50 and older a booster vaccine as part of a winter coronavirus strategy — plunging Britain into a growing debate over whether lower-income countries should get shots first.

    The prime minister is taking the step to try to prevent a new surge in cases from overwhelming the National Health Service, and to avoid another lockdown in a country wearied by the pandemic and earlier measures that included some of the strictest restrictions in the world.

    The additional vaccine doses will start being offered next week to older members of that group, health workers and those with underlying health conditions across Britain, with the aim of giving all those over 50 a booster shot of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, regardless of which vaccine an individual received previously, by the end of the year. Most people in Britain have received the two-shot vaccines of either the AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccines. The decision follows an announcement on Monday that one vaccine shot will be offered to healthy children aged 12 to 15.

  16. Vensays: Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 7:33 am

    Speaker Pelosi to General Milley”:
    Trump is crazy . You know he is crazy. He has been crazy for a longtime.


    Andrew C Laufer, Esq @lauferlaw

    Regarding the Trump/Miley news made public today, a source told me it’s true and merely the tip of the iceberg. It was done to ensure that multiple wars weren’t started. “None of us liked what had to be done but it had to be done.”

    NoelCaslerComedy @caslernoel

    We had a madman in charge of the USA so bent on staying in power the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff had to order a stand down on any nuclear weapons orders from POTUS and half the country still thinks he’s some kind of fat Jesus in Depends.

  17. Dotard may well run again, and win – so more of this…

    ‘In his desperation to remain in the White House after Joe Biden’s win in the 2020 election, then-President Donald Trump reportedly resorted to schoolyard threats against Mike Pence to convince him to overturn the results by rejecting certification. “You can do this. I don’t want to be your friend anymore if you don’t do this,” Trump told Pence after the then-vice president declined to throw the election, according to a new book by Bob Woodward and Robert Costa.

    The book, titled Peril, details Trump’s final chaotic days in office. According to excerpts published by CNN on Tuesday, Trump apparently pinned his hopes on Pence wanting to be “cool” and impress the MAGA fans pushing for Trump to stay in the White House. “If these people say you had the power, wouldn’t you want to?” Trump reportedly asked, referring to supporters. When Pence objected to the idea of “any one person” having that much authority, Trump shot back: “But wouldn’t it be almost cool to have that power?” according to CNN

  18. Contrary to the beliefs of those who disdain Twitter users:

    The Digital News Report data shows Twitter users are particularly news-aware and engaged.

    They are more likely to use Twitter mainly for news, whereas Facebook and YouTube users come across news incidentally.

    Twitter users are more likely than other social media users to follow mainstream media outlets and journalists, and less likely to get their news from social media personalities and “influencers”.

    In other words, the more serious contributors on Twitter are exactly the kind of people serious media organisations most want to attract.

  19. Lizzie

    For eg. Leigh sales received criticism for her tweets relating to kids and covid.
    Is this bullying or simply disagreeing?

    There is this report. Perhaps Leigh Sales could tweet this with some type of response. But so far all her tweets were in support of the argument that kids dont get seriously sick.

    PERSUASIVE advocacy from Leigh Sales that there’s little to worry about, kids with covid will be fine, could be incorrect. The truth is we still don’t know. 11% of children report long covid in Israel. That could be as high as 1 in 7 in the UK. #auspol

  20. Sarah Martin
    So, nowhere in Porter’s declaration does it actually say he doesn’t know who the money in blind trust has come from. Just says no access to info re its “conduct and funding”. Of course he knows

  21. ABC News at 8am had Anus Taylor spruiking the ‘technology not tax’ mantra following the breathless release of a (wait for it ) PLAN ahead of Glasgow. Murdochracy plowing the way for Slomo.

  22. Samantha Maiden
    Former PM @TurnbullMalcolm on RN right now “this is an affront. I will be staggered if PM allows this to stand. You can’t make anonymous donations to political parties that’s against the law. If he doesn’t know the donor he shouldn’t accept the money. Full stop.”


    This is the youtube presentation on anticipated ICU numbers in NSW. Professor MacIntyre says that the underlying paper will be published (I think she said 4pm yesterday but I cannot find it yet).

    At about 16mins 30 seconds in, the assumption is that daily cases will be 1890 at time restrictions are lifted in NSW. Not sure what the basis for that is but it appears to be a key factor.

  24. ‘You can’t make anonymous donations to political parties that’s against the law.’

    I asked Labor HO what I should do if someone ran up to me and shoved $50 in my hand and ran off (an experience one of my friends had as a candidate) and the answer was ‘Donate it to your favourite charity.”

  25. From BK’s omnibus.

    With no idea when caps on arrivals will be lifted, Singapore Airlines has cancelled at least one flight a day into Australia over the next three months, reports Chris Barrett who tells us that the hopes of scores of Australians trying to get home before Christmas have been shattered.

    This post appeared on the local Aust Consulate Whats App page the other day highlights the barriers people have in returning to Australia.

    This is for people who want to get home with Garuda, the charter flight will move to 23/09/2021 Jakarta Bali Perth. Permit landing confirmed and max 20 pax. Operated with Boeing 737-800

    To confirm, as suggest by the airlines, we will collect deposit AUD 1000 per person.

    Cost of charter flight AUD 123,800.00

    Max 20 passenger, per person cost AUD 6,190.00

    So, yeah, nah.

  26. Craig Emerson
    Former PMs are being required by the Federal Government to prove they aren’t agents of a foreign government. Yet Cabinet Minister Christian Porter could be receiving donations from agents of foreign governments and it’s okay for that to be kept secret

    Does this include Howard as an agent of the USA?

  27. Victoriasays:
    Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 8:13 am

    For eg. Leigh sales received criticism for her tweets relating to kids and covid.
    Is this bullying or simply disagreeing?

    There is this report. Perhaps Leigh Sales could tweet this with some type of response. But so far all her tweets were in support of the argument that kids dont get seriously sick.

    There are quite a few on PB who are of the opinion that kids dont get seriously sick.
    For example, Hugo of Gladysmatrix.

  28. lizziesays:
    Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 8:42 am
    Michael F Ozaki MD
    Texas girl, 4, with COVID dies in her sleep, had no pre-existing conditions – Newsweek

    Atleast in NSW, Australia, COVID deaths are due to “Underlying Health conditions” because of our world class Health system.
    Thank god for that.

  29. Greg Jericho
    · 10h
    Quick question – who is a powerful “far-left” person in Australia?

    I can’t really think of one.

    And certainly no one of the level of power of those on the right who can argue for the privatisation of everything from the ABC to Medicare & still get PMs to turn up for dinners.

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