Roy Morgan put out its now regular fortnightly poll of federal voting intention yesterday, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 52.5-47.5, down from 54.5-45.5 on a fortnight ago and its narrowest result in two months. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38.5% (I believe the Morgan release is incorrect when it puts it at 39.5%, which would be up by two and is different from the headline), Labor is down three-and-a-half to 35%, the Greens are up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation is steady on 3%.
The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last poll, and a swing of around 6% compared with the 2019 election), 57-43 in Victoria (in from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 4%) 51.5-48.5 in South Australia (in from 57.5-42.5, a swing of around 1%) and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (in from 63.5-36.5, a slight swing to the Liberals), while the Coalition leads 54-46 in Queensland (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%) and 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing of around 2.5% — and the Coalition’s best data point from this state all year). The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2753.
Also out today was the regular Essential Research survey, containing neither voting intention nor leadership ratings on this occasion. The regular results on federal and state governments’ handling of COVID-19 is included as always, which record improvement for both the federal government and the governments of New South Wales and Victoria. The federal government’s good rating is up four to 43% and its poor rating is down one to 35%; the New South Wales government’s good rating is up six to 46%; and the Victorian government’s good rating is up six to 50%. For the other states with their small sample sizes, Queensland’s good rating is down two to 65%, Western Australia’s is up nine to 87% and South Australia’s is down nine to 67%.
Further questions from the survey suggest Western Australians and to a lesser extent Queenslanders are firmly of the view that states without outbreaks should be able to keep their borders closed for as long as they think necessary (67% and 55% respectively), but that only a minority of those in New South Wales and Victoria do so (28% and 31%). Interestingly though, only 26% of all respondents said they understood and had confidence in the plan specifically attributed to Scott Morrison, while 39% said they understood it and didn’t have confidence in it. The Essential Research poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.
Note also that today is the day of California’s gubernatorial recall election, on which Adrian Beaumont will provide live updates in the post below.
Sceptic says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 6:48 am
If ever there was any question about the Greens being total idiots with a narcissist complex to rival Trump …
Michael Rowland
@mjrowland68
·
29m
Eyes
The Greens will start referring to MP’s and Senators as ‘shadow ministers’ in anticipation of possible power-sharing deal with Labor after the next
Again they are LNP enablers.
How utterly dismal. The splitters campaign for the LNP 24/7
I think Leigh’s “problem” is that she assumes all questions or criticisms are from “nasty leftists” and doesn’t differentiate the bots from the genuine.
”
Cud Chewersays:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 8:52 am
poroti
“NZ went berserk over the last 4 weeks.”
Yep, due to the Gladys strain!
”
Nothing focuses the mind like a existential threat.
Quasar
What did Leigh Sales say about kids with covid?
Good Morning
I see the Labor partisans are triggered by the Greens combating the media in seeking legitimacy with the Shadow Ministers thing.
Some news for you. That’s not helping the LNP or immature.
Seeking legitimacy in the eyes of voters when continually attacked and dismissed by the media and political opponents is the essence of maturity.
Ven
Especially one delivered by Oz..
Cud Chewer at 8:52 am
The plan was always to ramp up during that period but the ‘success’ of Gladystan’s Covid Ambassador put a rocket under the rates 🙂 They were doing up to 1.64% of the population per day. Pretty much a ‘world record’. The demand was such they purchased more Pfizer from Spain and Denmark. Interestingly they were straight purchases rather than ‘loans’ like we have done.
@samanthamaiden tweets
Former PM @TurnbullMalcolm on RN right now “this is an affront. I will be staggered if PM allows this to stand. You can’t make anonymous donations to political parties that’s against the law. If he doesn’t know the donor he shouldn’t accept the money. Full stop.”
Malcolm Turnbull has lashed Liberal frontbencher Christian Porter’s decision to use a blind trust to pay for his defamation case claiming this was “like saying “my legal fees were paid by a guy in a mask who dropped off a chaff bag full of cash.”
https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/the-mystery-trust-contributing-to-christian-porters-legal-fees/news-story/4fdc2987d8439121c5ba6112cc071a2b
guytaur says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 9:02 am
Good Morning
I see the Labor partisans are triggered by the Greens combating the media in seeking legitimacy with the Shadow Ministers thing.
Some news for you. That’s not helping the LNP.
The premise of the Green pretensions us that they will have a power-sharing deal with Labor. This is a completely preposterous idea. But its promotion by the Greens will assist the LNP. The Greens are campaigning, again, for the defeat of Labor. They will likely succeed. If the election is about whether or not the Greens should form a part of Government, the LNP will win very conclusively.
poroti
Just looking at the NZ case numbers. Its a tenacious beast. I just hope that the accelerating vaccination rate pushes luck in their favour and they do get back to zero.
Victoria has recorded another 423 new local Covid-19 cases overnight. Only 149 of these are currently linked.
Sadly two people infected with Covid-19 have also died
guytaur
I’m sure Boerwar could explain it more clearly, but this is how it goes.
Greens promote their confidence in being part of a Greens/Labor government.
Nat & Lib voters who dislike the Greens shy away like startled ponies and decide never to support Labor.
LNP retain their seats.
N
Labor has pretensions too.
Like your continual arguments against the preferential voting system.
So let’s be real. The Greens are only boosting their image. The only reason Labor is scared of it is they have not worked out how to deal with sensible discussion of what happens in the unlikely event of a minority government.
A clue for Labor. Unlikely.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 9:02 am
Good Morning
I see the Labor partisans are triggered by the Greens combating the media in seeking legitimacy with the Shadow Ministers thing.
ROFL
The Greens have left planet earth.
Cud,
Sales recently tweeted suggestion that COVID-19 in children was nothing to worry about. (Am still looking for the link)
Lizzie
That’s Labor accepting the LNP framing the climate debate. They better get over it if they want to win the election.
Labor has to pursue working for the environment is good. Not accept the LNP framing that Liberal voters shy away from more action on climate. The polling is clear.
It’s code red and Australia is the worlds villain. The Greens policies are more in line with Biden than Labor is.
Time for Labor to frame the climate debate not the LNP. All Labor has to do is turn that favourable polling in all conservative seats into an electoral advantage.
Leigh Sales is sick of having to home school her kids.
Frytheplanet running the line that Porter did nothing wrong, reported the donation, nothing to see here, other kids are doing it Sir!
“UK is the model for NSW “living with Covid”.”
How – did the UK exclude the unvaccinated when it had its freedom day?
UK Cartoons – I think the first may tickle the fancy of a few 🙂
So let’s see, Christian Porter must have been contacted by a stranger who said that he was going to arrange payment of all of his (Porter’s) legal bills in relation to his current difficulties regarding historic serious criminal charges.
Did Porter say “Thank you – very generous. Where do I send my bills”?
Or did he ask “who are you, why do you want to pay my bills and (most importantly) what do you expect in return?”.
Maybe he did and was told something like “I represent a group of people who wish you well who have set up a trust to pay your legal costs. They want nothing in return. That’s all that I can disclose”.
So what now, he is satisfied that all is above board? Is he convinced that the motives of these generous donors are nothing beyond good will towards himself? That they do not expect to benefit in any way from their financial support? That they have no ulterior motives? Does he answer “Great, where do I send the bills?”
It does rather strain credulity.
My fear that there is white-anting of the ABC is echoed in this tweet:
“ Everything we dreaded but knew was going to happen,has happened; Cassidy, Faine and Tony Jones either retire or redeployed prior to the unlosable election.
Fedpol raid on ABC immediately after. Conservative journalists or conservative . Producer bias applied. ABC gutted. Nightmare.”
Fingers crossed. Covid cases are plateauing here in victoria. Can we dare to dream.
Boerwar @ #35 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 8:18 am
It’s unclear how you can take that position given that 1) the intent of the mutiny was to stop a power-hungry tyrant from clinging to power, and 2) Trump never had majority support in the first place, and 3) Trump failed to gain majority support when offered a second go at it.
US democracy has been a long way down the tubes ever since Bush used the courts to steal the 2000 election. It cemented the trend of Republicans “winning” from outright minority positions.
But the military thing is neither here nor there. They intervened on the side of democracy, against the person who was trying to undermine it. Good on them, too.
“Cue Firefox to sneer at us and copy and paste reams of Greens’ press releases and Tweets about it in 3..2..1”
***
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZeuWoIBuo8&ab_channel=Powderfinger
(Aside from the point being made, there’s some great Aussie rock to start your day with!)
I see you’re still being your same old flaky self as usual, Cat. I guess that’s pretty typical of those of your political persuasion though. It’s not at all uncommon for those of the conservative centre-right to relentlessly campaign against the progressive left and their policies before an election, then turn around afterwards and try and cozy up to them when they realise how much support they have. It’s actually quite amusing to observe the change over time.
Nothing like having your opponents start campaigning for your causes for you – that’s when you really know your campaign is truly working. Well done AOC.
So, can we look forward to you advocating for the Greens’ and AOC’s policy of a Green New Deal from now on, Cat? Or will you be defending Labor’s environmental vandalism instead? You know, Adani, Beetaloo, massive subsidies for the fossil fuel sector, stymieing the uptake of EVs, backing coal beyond 2050, etc… etc…
@jonkuldeka tweets
Nothing makes you think trustworthy politician more than them receiving mysterious piles of cash.
I see Quasar is on a unity ticket with Wayne Swan
@SwannyQLD tweets
The ABC continues to deny right-wing bias by The Drum. –
https://johnmenadue.com/the-abc-continues-to-deny-right-wing-bias-by-the-drum/
Haha wow, you really don’t need William’s article to tell you that there’s a bad poll for Labor, do you. Just check out the hyperventilating over the Greens this morning, it says it all.
Sadly, the ACT Liberals have decided to follow their Victorian counterparts and have savagely attacked the Chief Minister and CHO over extending the lockdown by four weeks.
Doubtless they will encourage some idiots to defy the restrictions and ensure the virus spreads even more.
The good old Canberra Times (mainly aimed at the conservative older demographic) today is carrying articles critical of the ACT government.
Turnbull’s correct when he says Porter’s benefactor(s)
should be revealed. It’s not enough for him to claim he’s unaware of where the trust monies are invested.
The rationale of a blind trust is of course to avoid conflicts of interest where, say, a minister has the potential to make a decision favourable to, for example, Hancock Prospecting and/or Fortescue Metals Group.
If Porter’s legal bills have been paid by Rinehart and/or Forrest, the same principle applies. Full disclosure must be made so that checks & balances are in place to guard against any favourable treatment afforded them if indeed they are Porter’s benefactors.
I wonder though if Turnbull’s crusade has more to do with a case of sour grapes than it is with public office holders’ accountability & integrity. There’s certainly no love lost between the two and had not he been usurped, would he have been on Porter’s case? I get a strong feeling that Turnbull’s pissed as he greatly assisted Porter’s rapid rise – a case of an ungrateful bastard(?).
Quasar @ #72 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 9:23 am
My kingdom for an opposition.
Isn’t it wonderful that we have a Minister with such an impressive intellect!
guytaur says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 9:11 am
N
Labor has pretensions too.
Like your continual arguments against the preferential voting system.
You are a clown. I have not and do not oppose the preferential voting system.
The ACT is going to reach 80% double dosed very soon according to my (Dr) son who is doing 150+ jabs a day at the clinic he runs. The bulk (95%) are getting their second jab.
guytaur @ #58 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 9:06 am
Does Malcolm think he’s the leader of the opposition or something.
N
Yet here you are every day arguing you cannot vote for the Greens and Labor.
It’s you that is the clown.
Victoria ”Fingers crossed. Covid cases are plateauing here in victoria. Can we dare to dream.”
For five days, Victoria’s new daily Covid cases have been dipping above and below about 430 cases, after a few weeks of doubling every six days or so. Hopefully. Victoria is at or near its peak, rather than just taking a pause as it has done a couple of times (e.g. August 19-25).
lizzie @ #42 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 8:29 am
Maybe the Hale School donated some of it’s Jobkeeper windfall?
AOC’s policy of a Green New Deal ….
This product, because it is labelled “Green”, is completely unmarketable in Australia. The word “Green” is political pollution in the Australian electorate.
The Greens themselves know this. They try to attach it to Labor, with the result that Labor’s electability is undermined. The Greens are a pro-LNP political act.
Blind Freddy can see that a “Blind Trust” of “unknown” donors would not be donating up to one million dollars to pay off Porters legal bills without expecting something from someone .
The “donors” may not be expecting a return from Porter but perhaps it is a favor to the Liberal party that will be expected to return the favor at some stage in the future.
As Malcolm Turnbull states this is just like an masked donor offering money in a brown paper bag to a politician and is totally unacceptable.
There’ll be no early election.
Scotty will wait for the drift back before pulling the trigger on Miracle 2.0.
Labor partisans. See N complaining the word Green means a vote for the LNP.
That’s how much you have bought the LNP framing of politics.
guytaur says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 9:40 am
N
Yet here you are every day arguing you cannot vote for the Greens and Labor.
I have never said any such thing. Never. You persist in publishing falsehoods. You are a long-standing and serial publisher of falsehoods.
These falsehoods are all of a Green-piece, of course. They are intended to deflect from the essential proposition, which is that Green polemics and campaign lingo and stunts are aimed at – among other things – ensuring Labor never ever win an election.
So, in the last few months we’ve had one ‘bad’ poll for Labor: the Resolve poll of a week or two ago, which deliberately doesn’t publish a 2PP, although has been estimated at 51/49 to Coalition.
A few months ago we had the last 50-50 poll. LATE LAST YEAR the Coalition had its last win in a poll publishing a 2PP calculation.
Recent polls vary from about 52 to 54 Labor 2PP.
It seems to me that we are seeing more variations in polls than we did in the lead up to 2019 election. I take this to be a good thing and an indicator that Bludgertrack, with Labor in the high 52% area, could be about right. Furthermore, most polls have bigger swings to Labor in WA and QLD, where the Coalition have most seats to lose.
Mavis @ #80 Wednesday, September 15th, 2021 – 9:36 am
When Scotty gets back in we’re in seriously spooky unchartered territory.
This sort of two finger salute to the rest of us is small potatos.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they thave a go at banning the ALP.
Who’s gonna stop ’em.
N
You do it every day. You know it too.
I am honest and say vote Green 1 Labor 2.
You don’t. You just attack the preferential voting system. You want to deny voters choice.
Firefox2 says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 9:34 am
Haha wow, you really don’t need William’s article to tell you that there’s a bad poll for Labor, do you. Just check out the hyperventilating over the Greens this morning, it says it all.
The Greens continue to campaign for the LNP. If the Greens did not exist, the reactionaries would invent them. They serve the goals, interest and tactics of the LNP…every step of the way. The Greens are Labor-hostile. Of this, the Greens are supremely proud. This is their raison d’être.
Not many people with a spare mill for Porter. It has to be Gina right? Unless it’s someone else.
Victoria
I see the rate of growth in Victoria falling, but not its not peaking, yet.
That’s from eyeballing the data here:
https://www.covid19data.com.au/cases-last-28-days
There’s some hint of it here:
https://chrisbillington.net/COVID_VIC_2021.html
guytaur says:
Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 9:50 am
N
You do it every day. You know it too.
I am honest and say vote Green 1 Labor 2.
You don’t. You just attack the preferential voting system. You want to deny voters choice.
You’re making shit up. I have never made such a claim. Rather than deal with the substance of my argument, you simply offer a straw man….a deflection that’s false and which has nothing to do with the main proposition.
In case you’ve forgotten, that proposition is that the Greens are an anti-Labor act. They hope to defeat Labor. The Greens themselves declare this to be so. Yet they pretend to power….to running politics come la mafia…the politics of extortion in relation to Labor. Fuck the Greens.