Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Some better numbers for the Morrison government, on voting intention from Roy Morgan and COVID-19 management from Essential Research.

Roy Morgan put out its now regular fortnightly poll of federal voting intention yesterday, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 52.5-47.5, down from 54.5-45.5 on a fortnight ago and its narrowest result in two months. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38.5% (I believe the Morgan release is incorrect when it puts it at 39.5%, which would be up by two and is different from the headline), Labor is down three-and-a-half to 35%, the Greens are up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation is steady on 3%.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last poll, and a swing of around 6% compared with the 2019 election), 57-43 in Victoria (in from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 4%) 51.5-48.5 in South Australia (in from 57.5-42.5, a swing of around 1%) and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (in from 63.5-36.5, a slight swing to the Liberals), while the Coalition leads 54-46 in Queensland (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%) and 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing of around 2.5% — and the Coalition’s best data point from this state all year). The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2753.

Also out today was the regular Essential Research survey, containing neither voting intention nor leadership ratings on this occasion. The regular results on federal and state governments’ handling of COVID-19 is included as always, which record improvement for both the federal government and the governments of New South Wales and Victoria. The federal government’s good rating is up four to 43% and its poor rating is down one to 35%; the New South Wales government’s good rating is up six to 46%; and the Victorian government’s good rating is up six to 50%. For the other states with their small sample sizes, Queensland’s good rating is down two to 65%, Western Australia’s is up nine to 87% and South Australia’s is down nine to 67%.

Further questions from the survey suggest Western Australians and to a lesser extent Queenslanders are firmly of the view that states without outbreaks should be able to keep their borders closed for as long as they think necessary (67% and 55% respectively), but that only a minority of those in New South Wales and Victoria do so (28% and 31%). Interestingly though, only 26% of all respondents said they understood and had confidence in the plan specifically attributed to Scott Morrison, while 39% said they understood it and didn’t have confidence in it. The Essential Research poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

Note also that today is the day of California’s gubernatorial recall election, on which Adrian Beaumont will provide live updates in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,526 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  1. I presume Morrison had seen the Newspoll this afternoon when he decided to “accept”Porter’s resignation from Cabinet.

  2. Looks suitably bad for Scotty and Co, with the Porter mess yet to sink in, our relationship with France bruised, climate about to be the biggest show in town.

  3. Don’t think Scomo will be getting much relief from the personal ratings:

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 47 (-3) Albanese 35 (+1) #auspol

    #Newspoll Albanese: Approve 37 (-3) Disapprove 48 (+1) #auspol

    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 46 (-3) Disapprove 50 (+3) #auspol

  4. Morrison and Albanese took a hit in personal ratings but Morrison took another one in News/Sky’s holy grail of PPM. I don’t think this is a very good poll for Morrison at all. They threw everything at this one and it’s white noise at best. I see Nostradamus is back but I’m not calling it a night until Wayne tells where it all went right.

  5. “Nostradamus says:
    Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 9:36 pm
    Good news for the Government!”

    That’s correct. They’re in line for the silver medal with the Greens on bronze.

  6. “Smoko wont go to an election on those numbers.”

    Time’s just about up. The economy is going to go to shit in the new year. France is going to go ballistic re carbon trading and our EU relationship. There will be rape trials as far as you can see and Christian Porter is still poohing the place up. Gladys’ (and Dan’s) grand re-opening is going ahead and no one knows if it will be a success or an unmitigated disaster. Although only Dan will be blamed. This is a high wire act for Bozo and it wasn’t supposed to end this way.

  7. So… the real story seems to be the shift in Morrison’s personal position.

    I’m pretty sure Morrison’s net approval of -4 with disapproval at 50% is definitely the worst position he’s been in since before COVID. The gap on PPM is +12, also I think one Morrison’s weakest positions since the fires – and I’m sure @KevinBonham will confirm is pretty much on the line of the natural built-in advantage incumbents have on this question.

  8. “I was waiting for Wayne to pop his gap-toothed head up as well.”

    Nothing wrong with gapped teeth. I could give Alfred E Neumann a run for his money but I can blame being snotted playing football. Teeth swinging like piano keys rarely fall exactly back into place.

  9. Ashasays:
    Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 9:33 pm

    #Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (+1) ALP 53 (-1) #auspol

    Mundo will breath a sigh of relief and could P1 be wondering what the hell is happening? 🙂

  10. Interesting headline for Benson’s effort in Murdoch’s Oz:

    PM and Albanese lose support to minor parties

    Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have suffered significant falls in satisfaction ratings as voters look to park their support with minor parties in the latest Newspoll.

  11. Douglas and Milkosays:
    Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 9:37 pm
    I presume Morrison had seen the Newspoll this afternoon when he decided to “accept”Porter’s resignation from Cabinet.

    Is it possible Simon Benson conveyed it to him?

  12. @australian tweets

    #BREAKING: Labor’s primary vote has fallen but the Opposition leads the Coalition in the two-party-preferred contest 53 per cent to 47 per cent #Newspoll #ausvotes…

  13. davidwhsays:
    Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 9:38 pm
    Solid result for Labor. Coalition primary vote is terminal if it holds below 40%.

    It could have been better if did not jinx it. 🙂

  14. Ashasays:
    Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 9:37 pm
    Don’t think Scomo will be getting much relief from the personal ratings:

    #Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 47 (-3) Albanese 35 (+1) #auspol

    #Newspoll Albanese: Approve 37 (-3) Disapprove 48 (+1) #auspol

    #Newspoll Morrison: Approve 46 (-3) Disapprove 50 (+3) #auspol

    Morrison approval ratings are surprising indeed after Thursday theatrical announcement of Nuclear Sub deal with US President and UK PM in toe.

  15. Albo dodges incoming. Newspoll barely flutters. Sunshine covers the land.

    The heavy, slow and regular breathing of snoozing voters can be heard. They doze, mostly. They do not rouse themselves. Not yet. Some snoring, some muttered cursing and rolling rumbling from the restless is audible, but muffled. Some lie, eyes half open, feeling thirsty or perhaps the need to relieve themselves, but they do not rise. They roll to the side and listen to nothing but heartbeats, or to nothing at all, as if the decline of the sun from its noon could be heard in the cot. The spring flowers are out of course and some are prompted to sneeze and rub their faces.

  16. Don’t forget all the PEOPLE forced to their superannuation accruals

    They have missed a very substantial rebound in Financial Markets

    So a triple whammy

    Forced to their retirement savings

    Missed out on the rebound

    Impacting their circumstances in retirement

    On the other hand Corporate Australia received the billions they were gifted when their turnover increased over the period – some having now given it all back, more having given some back only (never reported) and more still, including Pty Ltd Companies, not handing any back

    And no action by government

    So what are the thoughts of the cohort forced to their superannuation accruals?

    And how many of them are there?

    There are also those who, because of their employment status, received no support

    How many of them?

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