Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor

Some better numbers for the Morrison government, on voting intention from Roy Morgan and COVID-19 management from Essential Research.

Roy Morgan put out its now regular fortnightly poll of federal voting intention yesterday, which has Labor’s two-party lead at 52.5-47.5, down from 54.5-45.5 on a fortnight ago and its narrowest result in two months. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 38.5% (I believe the Morgan release is incorrect when it puts it at 39.5%, which would be up by two and is different from the headline), Labor is down three-and-a-half to 35%, the Greens are up one-and-a-half to 13% and One Nation is steady on 3%.

The state two-party breakdowns have Labor leading 54-46 in New South Wales (out from 53-47 in the last poll, and a swing of around 6% compared with the 2019 election), 57-43 in Victoria (in from 59.5-40.5, a swing of around 4%) 51.5-48.5 in South Australia (in from 57.5-42.5, a swing of around 1%) and 55.5-44.5 in Tasmania (in from 63.5-36.5, a slight swing to the Liberals), while the Coalition leads 54-46 in Queensland (out from 53.5-46.5, a swing to Labor of around 4.5%) and 53-47 in Western Australia (out from 51-49, a swing of around 2.5% — and the Coalition’s best data point from this state all year). The poll was conducted online and by phone over the last two weekends from a sample of 2753.

Also out today was the regular Essential Research survey, containing neither voting intention nor leadership ratings on this occasion. The regular results on federal and state governments’ handling of COVID-19 is included as always, which record improvement for both the federal government and the governments of New South Wales and Victoria. The federal government’s good rating is up four to 43% and its poor rating is down one to 35%; the New South Wales government’s good rating is up six to 46%; and the Victorian government’s good rating is up six to 50%. For the other states with their small sample sizes, Queensland’s good rating is down two to 65%, Western Australia’s is up nine to 87% and South Australia’s is down nine to 67%.

Further questions from the survey suggest Western Australians and to a lesser extent Queenslanders are firmly of the view that states without outbreaks should be able to keep their borders closed for as long as they think necessary (67% and 55% respectively), but that only a minority of those in New South Wales and Victoria do so (28% and 31%). Interestingly though, only 26% of all respondents said they understood and had confidence in the plan specifically attributed to Scott Morrison, while 39% said they understood it and didn’t have confidence in it. The Essential Research poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1100.

Note also that today is the day of California’s gubernatorial recall election, on which Adrian Beaumont will provide live updates in the post below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,526 comments on “Morgan: 52.5-47.5 to Labor”

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  2. @mundo – that’s your default.

    I expect a small shift back to the Coalition out of public boredom.

    That seems the most realistic expectation. If there isn’t? That’s frankly more telling.

  6. If you think of mundo as our very own Marvin, it all falls into place 🙂

    “The first ten million years were the worst,” said Marvin, “and the second ten million years, they were the worst too. The third ten million years I didn’t enjoy at all. After that I went into a bit of a decline.”

  7. mundo:

    Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 8:23 pm

    [‘Subconsciously we’re all preparing for what we know deep down is coming.’]

    Have you considered sharing quarters & victuals with N?

  8. imacca, what happens when Albo gets asked if he approves of the nuclear switch (I think he already has) and then after the election, when cooler heads prevail and they go back to a conventional design, this gets used as a wedge against Albo?

    In a sane political environment all Albo would have to do is kick off a process to develop a defense white paper as soon as they got into office and let that guide whatever decisions are made re: sub purchases.

    Anyone trying to wedge this should be howled down based on the fact that the current AUKUS crapola fest has resulted in decisions on subs that don’t appear to be based on any Australian strategic planning whatsoever.

    Of course politics has gone nuts so maybe being sane won’t help.

    Also of course: we still don’t have any visibility of what other factors are at play in terms of conditions, threats, bribes, whatever from the US. If the US demanded, eg, real climate change action in return for this sub deal then Albo can say “we’ll pass on the subs but we’ll do the climate change stuff for free”. If it’s more about tying us to the US in moves against China … well frankly they should be told to get stuffed anyway, although I doubt that the ALP would do that unfortunately.

  10. Griff says:
    Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 8:32 pm

    If you think of mundo as our very own Marvin, it all falls into place
    ______________________
    He also reminds me of that great pessimistic playwright Samuel Beckett:

    THE STORY GOES that literary scholar Martin Esslin was walking with playwright Samuel Beckett along a London street on a lovely spring day.

    Esslin commented on the beauty of the day. Beckett agreed. Esslin said it was the kind of day that made you glad to be alive. Beckett responded: “Well, I wouldn’t go that far.”

  11. Lurker:

    Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 8:26 pm

    [‘Imagine being in a foxhole with mundo:

    ‘we’re dead I tell you….dead.’.’]

    It would be like attending a Labor branch meeting in Vaucluse.

  12. Mavis

    I only drink vodka and Tonic, after dark, so I’ve saved my celebration of Porter’s fall from grace until now. I hope it’s permanent and he doesn’t do a Lazarus.

  13. Sounds like, with so many portfolios, Angus Taylor is the Lance Barnard of the Liberal Party.

    More aptly, though, he’d be Lance Boyle.

  15. Porters problem wasn’t twitter, his problem was he wasn’t willing to finish something he started. Something to do with the ABC’s defense he didn’t want to be made public.

  16. Onya lizzie. I can confidently predict that Porter’s dead in the water, the only one who doesn’t know it is him. He won’t stand for preselection in Pearce as he’s blown it, the Tories margin in Pearce, a mere +3.89%.

  19. Bloody ell. !

    Amy Remeikis Retweeted

    Jenna Clarke
    @jennamclarke
    Unrelated, but from tomorrow Barnaby Joyce will be the Acting Prime Minister of Australia.

  20. Cud Chewer @ #2854 Sunday, September 19th, 2021 – 8:08 pm

    “Now, the Libs are simply NFI on policy again, and the ALP are focused on not getting wedged pre election.”

    imacca, what happens when Albo gets asked if he approves of the nuclear switch (I think he already has) and then after the election, when cooler heads prevail and they go back to a conventional design, this gets used as a wedge against Albo?

    Could you please provide proof that this is what Albanese will do after the election? You seem to state it with such certainty, that he will ‘go back to a conventional design’. Not to mention that ‘a conventional design’ is no longer fit for purpose when it comes to the strategic needs for submarines in combating China. They are able to be detected too easily by China.

  23. For any ex poms here:

    Former Tottenham and Chelsea striker Jimmy Greaves MBE, known as one of the greatest goalscorers English football has ever produced, has died at the age of 81.

    Spurs announced that their all-time record goalscorer and one of their greatest players in the club’s history passed away in the early hours of Sunday morning.

  26. There is a faint noise in the distance like the rush of air through feathered wings. Could it be the first of many pigeons coming home to roost?

  27. Joyce will announce that the nucular subs can’t hide because they glow in the dark and, sorry USA, but Australia is putting in an order for 2oo Werribee Brown Submarines.

  36. I see that we’ve made ourselves the victims. Those French created this whole mess by not seeing it coming, and are now emotionally blackmailing us with their sulking.

  40. [‘On Sunday afternoon Mr Morrison said after talks with Mr Porter, who had served as WA’s treasurer and had been considered a possible premier of that state, the MP had decided to move to the backbench.

    He made the move before an inquiry by the head of Mr Morrison’s own department into whether Mr Porter had breached ministerial standards had reported to the Prime Minister.

    According to Mr Morrison, Mr Porter had upheld those standards by resigning.

    “What I would call it is the minister being the beneficiary of an arrangement that prevents him from being able to disclose to me in a way that would allow him to satisfy that he does not have a conflict of interest or a perceived conflict of interest,” Mr Morrison said.

    “It is a blind trust. He cannot disclose to me who those donors are. The issue for [me] is about whether a minister is in a position to ensure that he can satisfy himself that he doesn’t have a conflict of interest, perceived or otherwise, and so the minister has taken a decision which respects that standard.”

    Mr Porter said he was assured none of the anonymous financial contributors were lobbyists or prohibited foreign entities but instead people who wanted to avoid retribution for supporting him.

    “They contributed to a trust on the basis of confidentiality and a belief that their contribution would remain confidential within the rules of disclosure,” he said.’]

    Legally Porter’s right but politically it’s an effing mess, the electorate, not interested in legal niceties. The average man and woman know something stinks though they’d do likewise if they were aware of the loopholes in the system.

    The problem for them is they’re not cashed up to take advantage of, for example, having their money in the Cayman Islands. How Mal recovered is an act of Plutus and the gift of the gab. And it’s good night from him save for the
    vac status.

    Vaccine rollout

    NSW

    52.6% fully vaccinated; 82.2% first dose

    National

    46.7% fully vaccinated; 71.7% first dose

    – and

    https://www.health.gov.au/initiatives-and-programs/covid-19-vaccines/australias-covid-19-vaccine-rollout

    Make of it what you will, but it seems to be going quite well.

  41. Mr Porter said he was assured none of the anonymous financial contributors were lobbyists or prohibited foreign entities but instead people who wanted to avoid retribution for supporting him.

    Which doesn’t rule out Kerry Stokes. Does it rule out Rupert or Lachlan Murdoch? They might say they aren’t ‘foreign entities’, simply foreign citizens. Of course just ignoring the business they’re in.

  43. It doesn’t matter on what basis the donors contributed.

    They gave money for the benefit of a member of parliament, a minister no less.

    The law requires that the contribution and the donor be disclosed on the Parliamentary register.

    Porter is not morally, ethically or legally right.

  46. Yep, status quo. Lets hope the pollsters are more accurate than last election.
    Covid is the one big issue. People are nervous. So they should be.

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