Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

Both federal leaders at low ebbs, but little change on voting intention from the latest Newspoll.

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, down from 54-46 in the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (down two), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records his weakest results since his early pandemic bounce in March last year, with approval down three to 46% and disapproval up three to 50%, but Anthony Albanese also records his weakest net rating to date, with approval down three to 37% and disapproval up one to 48%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-34 to 47-35. No hard details yet, but the poll will have been conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of between 1500 and 1600.

UPDATE (21/9): As reported in The Australian today, it turns out the poll had a larger-than-usual sample of 2144, which was done to produce sufficient sub-samples from the three largest states for meaningful results on the performance of state leaders. On personal ratings, Daniel Andrews leads the field with 64% approval and 35% disapproval, with Gladys Berejiklian (56% approval and 40% approval) and Annastacia Palaszczuk (57% approval and 38% disapproval) similarly placed. Separate questions on handling of COVID-19 give Berejiklian (56% good, 41% bad) and Andrews (63% and 35%) results almost identical to their personal ratings, whereas Palaszczuk does quite a lot better at 67% well and 31% badly.

We also learn that Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are strong in Queensland (56% approval and 41% disapproval), neutral in New South Wales (46% and 49%) and weak in Victoria (41% and 57%). Morrison is deemed to have handled COVID-19 well by 48% out of the national sample and badly by 49%, reflecting no change since the question was last posted in August. This breaks down to 47% well and 49% badly in New South Wales, 40% and 58% in Victoria and 61% and 36% in Queensland. Fifty-three per cent express more concern with moving too fast on relaxing restrictions compared with 42% for too slow, compared with 62% and 34% when the question was last asked in late January.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,493 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. poroti @ #1446 Tuesday, September 21st, 2021 – 10:04 pm

    C@tmomma
    He fucking did his duty and urged idiot jnr.,told idiot jnr. to get vaccinated. What else could he have done ?

    Sit him down and explain how he had him vaccinated as a child and how it did no harm at all to him and in fact allowed him to grow up to be a fit and healthy adult. Then tell him to stop being an idiot, get onto a computer or his phone and make an appointment to get vaccinated. Then drive him to the appointment if he needed to!

    You certainly don’t throw up your hands in exasperation.

  4. “Same thing happened in Israel until they widely rolled out the 3rd shot and those rates are now coming down.”

    5394 cases just yesterday out of a population of less than 10,000,000. A rate of three times more than Australia’s daily rate at the peak (or close to it) of our current wave with barely a third of our population. I suspect some of those hardliners religious over there are pretty anti-vaccine – something that the US appears to be having a problem with. After all, Israel is only now 64% fully vaccinated after all that effort and that includes triple dosed. I suggest you look elsewhere for your example of somewhere with rates coming down.

  5. Despite numerous episodes of ill health, Adams is still making a heap sense on LNL, surprisingly given his lack of formal education or perhaps because of it, having been an ‘atheist since age five’, both he & Howard having been born in ’39. To make comparisons is to be judgmental, Adams having retrevied his ASIO file through FOI. Says it all really.

  6. poroti @ #1453 Tuesday, September 21st, 2021 – 10:17 pm

    C@tmomma at 10:14 pm
    And you know he did not do that ? Seek out an antivaxxer and see how far you get using facts and reason.

    Oh I know. One of my sons is an Anti Vaxxer, actually. From the arrogant young man, I’m too healthy I don’t need a vaccine, end of the spectrum. Hasn’t stopped me continuing to encourage him to get vaccinated AND tell him what a bloody idiot he is being. If he wasn’t overseas I’d be taking him to the GP for a vaccination toot sweet! 🙂

  8. C@tmomma at 10:14 pm
    PS he wants his son to take over the business that he has built up over decades. He will dismiss him, he is protesting but he is not refusing to follow the rules. To do that is huge.

  10. poroti at 10:37 pm
    Make that the early 90s. Just did a count back. I got on to it as I was working night shift for a while and the radio alarm was tuned to the ABC. I soon set the alarm earlier to catch it all. From unreliable memory it was on from about 9-10pm in the West.

  12. I got a scam call today, a variation on the old “you owe tax” scam. It was an “important message” purporting to come from the Australian Border Force. The caller, a lady with a neutral accent, said that the Force had intercepted a package addressed to me containing illegal stuff (unspecified). An arrest warrant had been issued “under my name”. Not sure whether that means I’ll be arrested or that I have to arrest someone. Then she told me to press 1 to connect with a Border Force Officer. I hung up.

    Anyway, 12 hours later I’m still at large.

  14. poroti:

    Tuesday, September 21, 2021 at 10:37 pm

    Mavis at 10:27 pm

    [‘I have been an LNL follower since the second half of the 80’s. It will be a sad day for me when LNL is without Adams.’]

    Me too. I was also a keen listener to John Cargher’s “Singers of Renown”, on Aunty for 42 years from ’66 to ’08. They replayed it for a while but it wasn’t the same. The same goes for Adams though some of his conversations are timeless, where he’s not discussing contemporary events.

  15. Lars the Liberal apologist

    Both the US and the UK are in deep shit because they don’t have a high enough vaccination rate.
    Guess what Scomo and Gladys are proposing here? A lower overall rate of immunity.

    See how long those “freedoms” last, idiot.

  16. Does anyone know what has happened to either Reachtel or Unting research. Have they gone bust and or no longer conducting polling. I used to look forward to “in seat” Reachtel polling with sample sizes of aprox 600

  17. clem attlee:

    Tuesday, September 21, 2021 at 10:41 pm

    [‘Gee, Nath’s right wing petticoat sure has been on show tonight.’]

    To each their own, dear. When will you have an original, witty thought?

  19. Vaccine rollout:

    NSW

    54.2% fully vaccinated; 83% first dose

    National

    47.7% fully vaccinated; 72.8% first dose

    Of the estimated population aged 16 and over

    – SMH

    Pepys.

  20. C@t

    The Ben Schneiders piece is close to the mark.

    I did mention today that some workers have already been sacked. Purely revenge by Setka.

  21. Thanks for the abuse cudchewer.

    I’ll take my analysis from more informed sources than someone like you who was throwing around wild figures of 50,000 deaths in NSW only a few short weeks ago.

  22. Mavis

    Australia is at 37% fully vaccinated with 58% having had at least one dose in real terms.
    We need to be close to or over 80% in real terms.

    Lets compare and contrast Scomo’s “targets” with reality.
    Scomo 70% = 56% (real). Scomo 80% = 64% (real).

    In the US, 54% are fully vaccinated (63% at least one dose)
    In the UK, 65% are fully vaccinated (71% at least one dose)

    Both countries are doing extremely badly.
    The US death rate if translated to Australia is 55,000 deaths per year.
    The UK death rate if translated to Australia is 22,000 deaths per year.

    And Scomo/Gladys think that 56% is a good target and that we can “fully open up” at 64% (real).

    But its worse than this. Both the UK and the US have seen a large chunk of their populations already infected. Around 20-30%. This confers additional immunity. Meaning that if we were to compare apples with apples, we would need to be around 73% fully vaccinated (real) to be on a par.

    In other words, around 90% in Scomo speak. Just to be as badly off as the US/UK.

    This is why I don’t like the endless quoting of vaccination figures that are relative to a dangerously low “target”. Lives will be lost because of the impression being given that once we get to 70 or 80 (Scomo speak) then life will get back to normal.

  24. Mavis, I have been known. Anyway, what the hell does that have to do with him repeating Tory memes all day about the riots? Are you a Nath fanboy or something?

  30. Then she told me to press 1 to connect with a Border Force Officer. I hung up.

    We should start a Poll Bludger Long Bay chapter. I got the exact same call today, except I pressed “1”.

    After few rings a real person answered (generic “Asian-ish” accent), and I told her I was worried about the message. She said “Right, let’s get some ID verification… we’ll start with your address…”.

    But I replied that I wasn’t going to just hand over my address off the bat so her colleagues could arrest me even faster. Could we try something else?

    At that she hung up in my ear.

    I have also been getting the “tax scam” calls recently, some several in 24 hours. They are (obviously falsely) listed as coming from a mobile number just one or two digits different to my own.

    Why they bother with such an obvious camouflage is beyond me, but I suspect they get 1-in-10,000 recipients who DO have either a tax problem or ARE expecting an overseas parcel, and who are also gullible and/or a bit stressed out on the day.

  32. Bushfire Bill says:
    Wednesday, September 22, 2021 at 1:04 am

    Then she told me to press 1 to connect with a Border Force Officer. I hung up.

    We should start a Poll Bludger Long Bay chapter. I got the exact same call today, except I pressed “1”.

    ———————————————————-

    Given the ability of intelligence agencies to track down bad persons, how come the communications companies can’t find a way to trace these calls. They have to start somewhere with a phone account. Surely it’s not beyond their technological capacity to figure out how to identify people using their circuits.

  33. Where are Dutton et al, condemning these anarchists?
    Nudge and wink…Kelly/ Palmer proxy instigators , encouraging antivaxer /freedom lawlessness .
    Are any of these angry men interstate truck drivers?
    How many of these Quarantine breakers are antivaxers on a mission? Determined to publicly flout the rules for the benefit of their ‘digital warrior’ antivaxers?

    The Capital Hill Jan 6 showed how this can get seriously out of control.

    Echoes of 1930’s Germany.

  35. Given the ability of intelligence agencies to track down bad persons, how come the communications companies can’t find a way to trace these calls. They have to start somewhere with a phone account. Surely it’s not beyond their technological capacity to figure out how to identify people using their circuits.

    Are there any non-NBN phone users out there any more?

    I don’t understand why service providers can’t block outgoing calls where the caller ID doesn’t match the registered number:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Caller_ID_spoofing

    My “solution” is an answering machine; if the call is important, they should leave a message. (99% don’t.)

  36. Now that would give you the shits…

    Nothing says “afterthought” like a toilet stuck on the ceiling, with plumbing running halfway around the capsule:

  38. Unbelievable. This is just like Russell Crowe’s movie filming which had to be shut down because of a Covid outbreak among the crew.

    The NSW government announced on Tuesday that Byron and Tweed LGAs would enter a snap seven-day lockdown after a woman, an authorised worker, tested positive for COVID-19.

    The woman worked for a production company filming I’m A Celebrity…Get Me Out of Here.

    In a statement, the production company ITV Studios Australia said it had been filming I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here! in northern NSW “in accordance with Public Health Orders and restrictions”.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/liberal-mp-demands-hazzard-resign-after-reality-tv-crew-sparks-byron-lockdown-20210921-p58tlv.html

    How is filming movies and reality TV programs essential work?

    #mockdown

  42. Wow! Dan Andrews held a press conference and said there would be a different approach to stopping the protest in the Melbourne CBD today.

    Then, next thing you know a 5.8 mag earthquake in Mansfield causes damage in Melbourne’s CBD!

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