The Australian reports the latest Newspoll credits Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, down from 54-46 in the last poll three weeks ago, from primary votes of Coalition 37% (up one), Labor 38% (down two), Greens 10% (steady) and One Nation 3% (steady). On personal ratings, Scott Morrison records his weakest results since his early pandemic bounce in March last year, with approval down three to 46% and disapproval up three to 50%, but Anthony Albanese also records his weakest net rating to date, with approval down three to 37% and disapproval up one to 48%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 50-34 to 47-35. No hard details yet, but the poll will have been conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of between 1500 and 1600.
UPDATE (21/9): As reported in The Australian today, it turns out the poll had a larger-than-usual sample of 2144, which was done to produce sufficient sub-samples from the three largest states for meaningful results on the performance of state leaders. On personal ratings, Daniel Andrews leads the field with 64% approval and 35% disapproval, with Gladys Berejiklian (56% approval and 40% approval) and Annastacia Palaszczuk (57% approval and 38% disapproval) similarly placed. Separate questions on handling of COVID-19 give Berejiklian (56% good, 41% bad) and Andrews (63% and 35%) results almost identical to their personal ratings, whereas Palaszczuk does quite a lot better at 67% well and 31% badly.
We also learn that Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are strong in Queensland (56% approval and 41% disapproval), neutral in New South Wales (46% and 49%) and weak in Victoria (41% and 57%). Morrison is deemed to have handled COVID-19 well by 48% out of the national sample and badly by 49%, reflecting no change since the question was last posted in August. This breaks down to 47% well and 49% badly in New South Wales, 40% and 58% in Victoria and 61% and 36% in Queensland. Fifty-three per cent express more concern with moving too fast on relaxing restrictions compared with 42% for too slow, compared with 62% and 34% when the question was last asked in late January.
mundo’s boy has got the next election in the bag, I tells ya! 😀
Benson obviously couldnt find anything good for his mate in those numbers.
From zeh other thread…
So… the real story seems to be the shift in Morrison’s personal position.
I’m pretty sure Morrison’s net approval of -4 with disapproval at 50% is definitely the worst position he’s been in since before COVID. The gap on PPM is +12, also I think one Morrison’s weakest positions since the fires – and I’m sure @KevinBonham will confirm is pretty much on the line of the natural built-in advantage incumbents have on this question.
“Is it possible Simon Benson conveyed it to him?”
from Simon’s tongue to Bridgey’s ear to Scotty’s ouija board
Well may we say God save the Queen because nothing (not even uncosted subs in the never never )will save Scotty ,from marketing.
From previous thread. I know it’s easy to be cynical but thank your minor party friends Labor.
Edit: Yes I am cynical.
@australian tweets
#BREAKING: Labor’s primary vote has fallen but the Opposition leads the Coalition in the two-party-preferred contest 53 per cent to 47 per cent #Newspoll #ausvotes theaustralian.com.au/nation/politic…
Dr Bonham…
Morrison’s worst netsat and lowest Better PM lead since March 2020 but also Albanese’s worst netsat so far. #Newspoll
Coalition lucky to get 47 2PP out of those primaries, would normally be 46, so expect rounded up from high 46s.
#Newspoll
Look at that old gobbler Julie Bishop at the Brownlow count.
‘Kevin Bonham
@kevinbonham
·
13m
Coalition lucky to get 47 2PP out of those primaries, would normally be 46, so expect rounded up from high 46s. ‘
Suggests the ‘change’ is a case of a decimal point or two.
I understand the party leaders get a heads up from NewsPoll well before it is announced…
Albo dodges incoming. Newspoll barely flutters. Sunshine covers the land.
The heavy, slow and regular breathing of snoozing voters can be heard. They doze, mostly. They do not rouse themselves. Not yet. Some snoring, some muttered cursing and rolling rumbling from the restless is audible, but muffled. Some lie, eyes half open, feeling thirsty or perhaps the need to relieve themselves, but they do not rise. They roll to the side and listen to nothing but heartbeats, or to nothing at all, as if the decline of the sun from its noon could be heard in the cot. The spring flowers are out of course and some are prompted to sneeze and rub their faces.
Morrison is eagerly anticipating the rapture but it looks like the subs decision is giving him the rupture.
Great for Labor. Morrison should be worried about the PPM to the extent it is relevant.
Mr Potato Head will be removing the Wiltshire.
From previous thread. I know it’s easy to be cynical but thank your minor party friends Labor.
As does the Coalition for the votes and preferences from the RW minor parties.
Evocative image, Briefly. Thank you.
Looking forward to the Newspoll Q3 aggregation and any change to the state swings.
This is probably the last poll for September, so could come soon.
citizen says:
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 9:57 pm
Morrison is eagerly anticipating the rapture but it looks like the subs decision is giving him the rupture.
Mr Morrison said he had told Mr Macron of Australia’s decision on the evening before it was announced.
But France’s Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, in a sign of the rupture between Paris and Canberra, used public television to label the decision as “duplicity, disdain and lies”.
You have to admire the French for their turn of phrase. They like their eloquence. They are also very good at pique.
Yes, nice writing N.
”
malcolmsays:
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 9:52 pm
Well may we say God save the Queen because nothing (not even uncosted subs in the never never )will save Scotty ,from marketing.
”
Please don’t say that because Whitlam did not win the next election and election after those comments regarding Kerr. But GG Kerr remained GG and survived. 🙂
Cat
Yes very true.
Griff says:
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 10:00 pm
Evocative image, Briefly. Thank you.
Thank you, Griff. I’m much obliged.
This poll gives a great “opportunity” for Mordor to announce in the next Newspoll that Scommo’s popularity has “bounced back” just in time for that November election and with everyone happy to be out of lockdown with much higher vaccination figures being announced each day in October.
Newspoll still believes they can give Scommo another “miracle” win. But can they ?
@PRGuy17 tweets
Trolls keep @’ing me asking me who paid Sarah Hanson-Young’s legals. Here’s the answer: David Leyonhjelm was ordered to pay them after she kicked his silly butt. #auspol
I’ve never had time for this conspiracy theory that Newspoll plays funny buggers to suit the News Corp editoral approach.
It’s more the desperate polishing or excitable overstatement from its commentators that tries to influence how people interpret those figures.
This is an interesting poll. The tea leaves aren’t telling us much. It is the next Newspoll that is likely to be make or break. If it backs into 52, it is go time. A push out may result in Morrison being pushed out.
Edit: spelling
Brownlow Medal. Do they still bore everyone to lettuce by insisting on reading out every vote from every game? Even the NRL have streamlined theirs into the last three or four rounds but then again, they do admit that no one could care less as to who wins. To be honest, I’ve forgotten what they call it. Anyway, Souths to clean up Manly, then Melbourne and we can get on with the off-season antics. Could this be the year a player ends up in jail? I know Mad Monday has been cancelled but the pubs will be open soon so strap yourselves in. There’s been a real build-up of steam and other fluids with these boys.
ausdavo,
there’s going to be people dying of a lack of breath in the hallways of NSW icu units in the next couple of months. Things will bad in November and worse next year.
Australia just announced 90Bn on subs over a forever timeline, people will rightly be thinking, why can’t we spend some of that on my job i don’t have right now.
Anyway, kudo’s to the ALP staying on point, and it was nice to see Albo asking for porter to leave the parliament. They should keep the pressure on him. The talk about bags of cash on your doorstep are great optics.
This subs thing has put to bed forever the chestnut of Labor being asked “Where’s the money coming from?”. The answer, of course, is the same place as where we are paying for the subs. But it won’t stop them.
”
ausdavosays:
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 10:03 pm
This poll gives a great “opportunity” for Mordor to announce in the next Newspoll that Scommo’s popularity has “bounced back” just in time for that November election and with everyone happy to be out of lockdown with much higher vaccination figures being announced each day in October.
Newspoll still believes they can give Scommo another “miracle” win. But can they ?
”
But but but ausdavo
Did you see vaccination rates? Over 70 % first dose nation wide and over 42% second dose nation wide ( so we will have atleast 75% fully vaccinated by November). All people in LNP electorates except in Melbourne are out of lockdown /or at the worst are in mockdown.
We are going to buy Nuclear Subs in a couple of decades.
So we could be having a lot of sunshine by November.
..and you too, Lynchpin.
I spent the afternoon drawing with pencils, outside, under the sun and in the westerly breeze, looking upstream towards Melville water, past Point Walter. I’m contented (though, I’m sure to add, not delighted) with the result.
My children like it. I believe that’s the biggest test. They are so frequently silent. They make me smile, such is their withholding. Where they are taciturn I am too free with my opinions, and all the more with the passage of the years. The older we get the more mistakes we are permitted, though they are usually answered with official silence, which is another name for reprimand. So when they express admiration for my effort, I’m sure I must have done good.
N, were you at Troy Park today?
Ah no, downstream from Point Walter. Blackwall Reach?
So how is Benno spinning this one in The Oz?
Ollie Wines from Port Adelaide club wins the Brownlow Medal for 2021.
Does ScoMo know just how much like a conman he sounds?
“You should have known I was lying” (even if not literally, is effectively what he said) is the kind of thing said by someone who has deliberately set out to decieve.
Australia broke the deal, and led France on for over a year, and yet what I’ve heard from Australia is racism, victim blaming, and playing the victim. Absolutely shameless.
@davidenrich tweets
New @nytimes investigation: Giant accounting firms send their officials into the government, where they water down tax rules in ways that help their firms’ clients. Then they return to those firms, which double their pay. @JesseDrucker @dannyhakim
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/19/business/accounting-firms-tax-loopholes-government.html
”
Nsays:
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 10:20 pm
..and you too, Lynchpin.
I spent the afternoon drawing with pencils, outside, under the sun and in the westerly breeze, looking upstream towards Melville water, past Point Walter. I’m contented (though, I’m sure to add, not delighted) with the result.
My children like it. I believe that’s the biggest test. They are so frequently silent. They make me smile, such is their withholding. Where they are taciturn I am too free with my opinions, and all the more with the passage of the years. The older we get the more mistakes we are permitted, though they are usually answered with official silence, which is another name for reprimand. So when they express admiration for my effort, I’m sure I must have done good.
”
Touche’ N. Your are in great form tonight.
Just want to add to your commentary about kids. If you have teenage kids, they can be more forth coming about our mistakes than the kids in their 20s and 30s.
I assume Labor wants a byelection in Pearce because they think they would win it with Mark McGowan presumably campaigning alongside Albo and the Labor candidate.
And for those already declaring the next election as a certain Labor victory, I offer up two notes of caution: 1. Qld, 2. Morrison riding the wave of a reopened and largely vaccinated Australia.
And Albo is either not liked or people have no idea who he is.
”
guytaursays:
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 10:25 pm
@davidenrich tweets
New @nytimes investigation: Giant accounting firms send their officials into the government, where they water down tax rules in ways that help their firms’ clients. Then they return to those firms, which double their pay. @JesseDrucker @dannyhakim
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/19/business/accounting-firms-tax-loopholes-government.html
”
Guytaur
Why I am not surprised? Unlike Lawyers accounting firms are not protected by client / Accountant privilege.
So – as expected, the great submarines debate has had zero effect on voting – turns out normal people really don’t find this stuff that interesting. If indeed it was timed to get a Newspoll boost, it’s failed badly. As I suggested last Friday (and since), defence stuff really isn’t a vote shifter (unless there is an actual war on), and I’m confident in stating that we will hear very little about submarines from now on, despite the breathless excitement of the male end of the press gallery (boys and their toys, eh?), and a few Bludgers too.
This poll doesn’t really tell us much that we didn’t already know: an ageing government has lost support to a broadly acceptable opposition, but said government is not yet a lost cause. Primary votes look to be roughly LNP 38, ALP 38, GRN 10, Others 14, for a 2PP to the ALP of 52-54 to 46-48.
Fulvio Sammut says:
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 10:23 pm
N, were you at Troy Park today?
Ah no, downstream from Point Walter. Blackwall Reach?
On the crest of the hill in Mosman Park, near Bayview Terrace, so looking from the top of the cliff. Blackwall Reach was out of view. First time there for me. Several hours of study and experiment with pencils….loved it.
Ven, you’re right about the children. Mine are well-past their teens. They are into parental management now.
jt1983
Regarding covid messaging. You’d rather people live happily in ignorance?
”
Hugoaugogosays:
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 10:35 pm
………….
I’m confident in stating that we will hear very little about submarines from now on, despite the breathless excitement of the male end of the press gallery (boys and their toys, eh?), and a few Bludgers too.
”
May be may be not. But one thing about this Sub deal is based on betrayal by both Australia and US to one their close allies. That shines on the character of the governments. That is what stuck in my craw. If US can betray one of its allies for a few Sub sales how can other allies trust US?
The Labor candidate for Pearce is Tracey Roberts, long-time Mayor of Wanneroo. If any Labor candidate can win that seat, it’s Mayor Roberts. She is a dynamo and she is highly regarded. Wanneroo does not comprise all the seat, by any means, but she will do well in the Western and more urban areas.
Porter is a useless, deceitful, arrogant, opportunistic, misogynistic and deeply ambitious reactionary. His strength is in the smaller towns and rural districts that lie beyond the metro fringe. It will be a very good election for Labor if they can dislodge him.
@DanRather tweets
A significant percentage of Congress is officially a troll farm.
Hugoaugogo says:
Sunday, September 19, 2021 at 10:35 pm
So – as expected, the great submarines debate has had zero effect on voting – turns out normal people really don’t find this stuff that interesting.
When bringing up the children, when they were very little, we took them one time to the caves near Margaret River; to one of the deeper, larger and more ominous caverns that lie near Caves Road. We took the tour. We listened and we peered. We stepped carefully. We kept the children quiet and close. This went on and on. Eventually, released back into daylight, we asked the middle child, the one who we thought would have something to say, what she’d thought of the cave.
“What cave?” she answered.
The voters have the same degree of awareness of subs. What subs! There are no subs! There is only noise and obscurity.
This is a horrific legacy for Trump.
@KyleGriffin1 tweets
NBC News: The U.S. has exceeded 42 million COVID cases since the start of the pandemic.
One million new cases in 7 days. @NBCNews @MSNBC
@CC – Not at all. But people are going to need a balance of hope and reality. If the balance is off too much, compliance will go through the floor.
@Evan – not to be rude, but you’re not telling us anything we don’t already see/know. Anyone thinking the Government is done, is wrong. But, people who strongly argue the counter, which is true, without the balance of the reality of the situation the Government is in, are also wrong.
Morrison will need to find a path to gain seats this election – while I don’t think Qld is going to be the goldmine some might think (mostly due to the margins post-2019 (but we know Qld can swing big)), I don’t see a way Labor goes backwards.
Morrison’s job in 2021/22 is much, much harder than it was in 2019. That doesn’t mean its impossible, it’s just really difficult.
jt1983
When people realise that they’re being conned, where does compliance go? You only have to look to the UK for your answer.
Don’t forget the original messaging lumped covid in with the flu. How well did that go?
Remember the “flattening the curve” messaging? Which was code for “you’re all going to get it, just form an orderly queue”.
People actually want honesty. If you want to give them hope, allow them to access rapid testing. Fund better ventilation for schools and other public places. Build decent quarantine facilities. etc.
guytaur
The US case count is a huge understatement of the real number of infections.