Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 31, Greens 10

Another idiosyncratic set of voting intention numbers from the Age/Herald pollster, suggesting the Coalition would again be returned with a small majority.

The Age/Herald has published its monthly federal voting intention poll from Resolve Strategic, which appeared online yesterday and in print today. The series remains an outlier in its soft reading of support for Labor, who are down one point on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition also down one to 39% and the Greens down two on 10%.

With the main players all down, “others” has shot up four points to 7%, which if nothing else about this poll is consistent with this week’s Newspoll – perhaps suggesting that Clive Palmer’s expensive efforts to win support from lockdown skeptics may be having an impact. One Nation also enjoys a mini-surge, up two points to 4%. The remaining 9%, down one on last month, goes to “independents”, which the pollster contentiously includes as a distinct option despite uncertainty as to what candidates voters in most seats will have available to them at the election.

The pollster does not produce its own two-party results, but if preference flows from 2019 are applied to the primary votes, they come out with a Coalition lead of nearly 52-48 – quite unlike Newspoll’s and Roy Morgan’s Labor leads of 53-47 and 52.5-47.5. Anticipating a lively reaction from the Twitter mob, the accompanying report offers the following note of explanation:

The Resolve survey uses a different methodology from others. There is no “undecided” category because Resolve asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they fill in their ballot papers for the lower house at an election. This means the final Resolve tables do not exclude the “uncommitted” group, which can be about 8 per cent of all respondents. There is no “uncommitted” cohort. Respondents have to choose an option.

As usual, breakdowns are offered for the three largest states (they used to have Western Australia as well, but seem to have dropped it now), which suggest a Coalition lead in New South Wales that has grown from around 51-49 last month to 53.5-46.5. In Victoria, the implication is of a stable Labor lead of around 51.5-48.5. In Queensland, however, Labor has done quite a bit better than a particularly bad result last month, suggesting a Coalition lead of 53-47 rather than 58.5-41.5, while tanking in “rest of Australia”, where both major parties lose share to independents and others.

On personal ratings, both leaders are up three on approval and down one on disapproval: Scott Morrison to 49% approval (by which I mean a combined very good and good result) and 45% disapproval (ditto for very poor and poor), Anthony Albanese to 31% and 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 46-23 to 45-26. I don’t normally pay much attention to breakdowns on leadership ratings, but it may be worth nothing that Albanese has a 30% undecided rating among women compared with 16% among men.

The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1606. At some point in the future, I will take a deeper look at the pollster’s peculiarities relative to its rivals. Tomorrow we should get its bi-monthly read on state voting intention in New South Wales, combining results from this month’s and last month’s surveys.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,821 comments on “Resolve Strategic: Coalition 39, Labor 31, Greens 10”

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  1. Lurker:

    Friday, September 24, 2021 at 10:21 pm

    [‘Congrats Mavis. I will be going for Melbourne tomorrow. Under normal circumstances I would be barracking for the Bulldogs, a great working class history, against the Club of the Establishment.’]

    Thanks, Lurker. Souths was a working class club too but that’s no longer the case, with big bucks being splashed around:

    [‘The South Sydney District Rugby League Football Club is currently a subsidiary company 75% owned by Blackcourt League Investments which is, in turn, 50% owned by the actor Russell Crowe and 50% owned by James Packer’s Consolidated Press Holdings; the other 25% is owned by the financial Members of the club.’]

    In the old days players had a day job but that’s no longer the case, which is probably why so many get into trouble.

  2. Mavis says:
    Friday, September 24, 2021 at 10:34 pm
    In the old days players had a day job but that’s no longer the case, which is probably why so many get into trouble.
    There seems to be less and less atrocities committed by RL players over the years. Maybe they are improving?

  3. Love your passion C@t.

    Unfortunately supporters passion doesn’t win Grand Finals.

    Reality always wins, Souths were not up to the standard tonight that is required to win a Grand Final against a machine like the Storm.

  4. I don’t follow NRL much these days. I tend to favour the Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs, my local team growing up, going through hard times this year in more ways than one, plus whoever’s playing Manly-Warringah. Congratulations to Souths, my second most preferred team. Now all the best to whoever is playing Melbourne Storm tomorrow (Penrith).

  5. “Yup. I’m sure the LNP are very well aware of this too. They will try to shift the political discourse.”

    Oh, I’m sure they’ll try to start a war to create a distraction, but covid does its own thing..

  6. And now the prime minister of Australia, the very same prime minister threatening going to war with China, presumes to know the response of China to the apparent illiquid state of a property developer Company in China

    Noting China treat the Australian prime minister and his government with abject disdain – whilst privately continuing to be the Australian Nation’s largest trading partner underpinning the economic performance of Australia and particularly in a World of a Pandemic

  7. BB,

    The Physical Retailer Reliability Obligation is a dog of a policy and it is being called out as such by everyone in the renewables industry.

    Even some of the big players – those that have invested in renewables or contracted them heavily – are set to lose out if it is implemented (I’ll spare you the technicalities of why).

    So the path is not as straightforward as you suggest.

  8. Facing collapse under a mountain of debt, giant Chinese property developer Evergrande kept silent on Friday after missing a key interest payment, as the group struggles to restart home building in China and the government warned it against causing instability.

    By Friday afternoon in Asia, the group had not released any statements about a $83.5 million interest payment on an offshore bond that was due on Thursday. Bondholders confirmed to Bloomberg News that they had not received the transfers on time. The terms grant a 30-day grace period before a missed payment counts as a default.

    Evergrande’s model of rapid, debt-fueled expansion during the boom years of China’s urbanization made the group one of the country’s largest developers and briefly turned Xu Jiayin, its founder, into China’s wealthiest business person. Chinese cities are dotted with Evergrande’s high-rise apartments, many of them snapped up as investments by newly minted members of the country’s burgeoning middle class in recent years.

    China’s Evergrande veers toward collapse — and a $300 billion global shock

    But a slowdown in property markets and a government campaign to halt lending to overleveraged developers is threatening to sink the group, which has debts of $305 billion, or about 2 percent of the country’s gross domestic product.

    Despite uncertainty over Evergrande’s fate, financial markets remained broadly stable on Friday and avoided a return to frantic trading seen earlier in the week, when fears spiked that the group’s imminent collapse would infect the global financial system.

    The lack of a second panic in markets on Friday probably reflected that international creditors were resigned to a missed payment, said Travis Lundy, an independent analyst based in Hong Kong.

    … The focus on unfinished homes and disgruntled buyers means that other parts of the conglomerate’s sprawling operations, including an electric vehicle company that is building multiple factories but has yet to sell a single car, may be left behind.

  9. Great to see so many Bludgers support the Mighty Rabbitohs! A great win by Albo’s team tonight and in to the Grand Final – they’ll start as outsiders against the Storm (or to a lesser extent against Penrith), but being underdogs is just how we like it! Glory glory!

  10. From around 10 this season, it was clear that either Melbourne or Penrith would win the Grand Final. The other teams were only there to make up the numbers. Tonight was a no brainer. It was always gunna be Souths by how much? Tomorrow night will also be a no brainer – Melbourne by how much?
    Next week, Melbourne will have no trouble putting a minimum of 30 points on the Bunnies. In fact, Manly’s record Grand Final winning margin of 40 points (v Melbourne in 2008) will be under threat!

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