The Age/Herald has published its monthly federal voting intention poll from Resolve Strategic, which appeared online yesterday and in print today. The series remains an outlier in its soft reading of support for Labor, who are down one point on the primary vote to 31%, with the Coalition also down one to 39% and the Greens down two on 10%.
With the main players all down, “others” has shot up four points to 7%, which if nothing else about this poll is consistent with this week’s Newspoll – perhaps suggesting that Clive Palmer’s expensive efforts to win support from lockdown skeptics may be having an impact. One Nation also enjoys a mini-surge, up two points to 4%. The remaining 9%, down one on last month, goes to “independents”, which the pollster contentiously includes as a distinct option despite uncertainty as to what candidates voters in most seats will have available to them at the election.
The pollster does not produce its own two-party results, but if preference flows from 2019 are applied to the primary votes, they come out with a Coalition lead of nearly 52-48 – quite unlike Newspoll’s and Roy Morgan’s Labor leads of 53-47 and 52.5-47.5. Anticipating a lively reaction from the Twitter mob, the accompanying report offers the following note of explanation:
The Resolve survey uses a different methodology from others. There is no “undecided” category because Resolve asks voters to nominate their primary votes in the same way they fill in their ballot papers for the lower house at an election. This means the final Resolve tables do not exclude the “uncommitted” group, which can be about 8 per cent of all respondents. There is no “uncommitted” cohort. Respondents have to choose an option.
As usual, breakdowns are offered for the three largest states (they used to have Western Australia as well, but seem to have dropped it now), which suggest a Coalition lead in New South Wales that has grown from around 51-49 last month to 53.5-46.5. In Victoria, the implication is of a stable Labor lead of around 51.5-48.5. In Queensland, however, Labor has done quite a bit better than a particularly bad result last month, suggesting a Coalition lead of 53-47 rather than 58.5-41.5, while tanking in “rest of Australia”, where both major parties lose share to independents and others.
On personal ratings, both leaders are up three on approval and down one on disapproval: Scott Morrison to 49% approval (by which I mean a combined very good and good result) and 45% disapproval (ditto for very poor and poor), Anthony Albanese to 31% and 46%. Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister narrows from 46-23 to 45-26. I don’t normally pay much attention to breakdowns on leadership ratings, but it may be worth nothing that Albanese has a 30% undecided rating among women compared with 16% among men.
The poll was conducted Tuesday to Saturday from a sample of 1606. At some point in the future, I will take a deeper look at the pollster’s peculiarities relative to its rivals. Tomorrow we should get its bi-monthly read on state voting intention in New South Wales, combining results from this month’s and last month’s surveys.
N says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 8:24 pm
The fine print. We better see the fine print. The LNP will shirk things if they can. They do not believe in taking effective action. They believe in doing nothing.
————————–
Exactly the Lib/nats are not good on keeping their word on anything
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-24/treasurer-backs-net-zero-2050-target/100489434
The federal government is yet to set a target of net zero emissions by 2050 but the Treasurer has used a speech and several media appearances to push the case to finalise a plan.
Key points:
The Treasurer warned investors could take their money elsewhere if Australia was seen as lagging on climate action.
The PM has expressed a desire to reach net zero emissions “preferably” by 2050 but internal division has prevented him from setting a legislated target
Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce has given tacit support, as long as it doesn’t hurt regional areas
Australia is under increasing international pressure to agree to the 2050 goal, with the US and UK seeking assurances Australia will deliver a sufficient reduction on emissions.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has expressed his desire for Australia to reach net zero emissions “preferably” by 2050, but internal division within the government has prevented him from setting a legislated target.
With just weeks to go before a major climate summit in Glasgow, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg warned investors could take their money elsewhere if Australia was seen as lagging on climate action.
“Australia has a lot at stake,” he said during a virtual speech to business leaders.
“We cannot run the risk that markets falsely assume we are not transitioning in line with the rest of the world.”
It is indeed good to see vaccination rates picking up, although there still seem to be some wobbles regarding Pfizer supplies in October. Hopefully these are being resolved. We’ll reach fake 70% in NSW in the next couple of weeks and hopefully real 70% in about 8 weeks. We could well finish well North of real 80%. Of course we would have been there months ago had vaccines been available, but they weren’t. The Federal Government might finally be starting to get its act together. All I can say is better late than never.
Oh dear. What will the Greens do now?
Abbott stopped the boats and he stopped the Green campaign on asylum seekers at the same time.
If Morrison adopts net-zero and actually implements it…stops the CO2…the Greens will be out of business. They will be hoping that Morrison sticks to his usual form and is bluffing.
Smart politics by the LNP. They will steal votes from the Greens. They are ripe for the taking too. I sense another win by the LNP coming up.
Citizen
I had been following the covidau for sometime. What a wonderful surprise. So proud of these young boys.
Scott
“Up to 90% Australians will be fully vaccinated next month”
Currently, 38.8% of Australians are fully vaccinated. The best performing country so far is Portugal with 84.3% of its population fully vaccinated. Its doubtful that any country will get to 90%
Now, just on the off chance you’re using Scomo units, let me humour you.
We might get to 90% (Scomo units – in reality 72%) by late November.
And if you look at what’s happening overseas you’ll notice that only the countries close to 80% (of the entire population – 100% in Scomo units) are doing ok.
N
Indeed, why vote Green (or Labor) when you can vote for a so much more corrupt incumbent who are still approving new coal mines?
Scott Morrison will declare zero by 2050, throw a couple of billion to mates for planting trees, research into carbon capture and storage,”clean” coal, gas, maybe a couple of billion for assessment of nuclear, who knows maybe witchcraft and sorcery, anyone or anything except renewables – then declare everything’s taken care of. Any alternative plan put forward by Labor or anyone else will be shouted down as too expensive, destroying the economy and the Australian way of life. Likewise any talk of intermediate targets around 2030-35.
Of course 2050 without any effective plan is just kicking the can down the road and likely just, in Malcom’s words, another fig leaf on an intention to do nothing.
P.S. Morrison will be 82 in 2050, long gone from politics.
Steve777 says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 8:29 pm
It is indeed good to see vaccination rates picking up, although there still seem to be some wobbles regarding Pfizer supplies in October. Hopefully these are being resolved. We’ll reach fake 70% in NSW in the next couple of weeks and hopefully real 70% in about 8 weeks. We could well finish well North of real 80%. Of course we would have been there months ago had vaccines been available, but they weren’t. The Federal Government might finally be starting to get its act together. All I can say is better late than never.
__________________________
Remember when you were forecasting vaccination finishing in 2024?
We ordered vaccinations back in 2019 and yet didn’t get them till 2020.
Feds knew about COVID19
Lars Von Trier says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 8:49 pm
See my reply about vaccine availability
How high did the cover-up go zerlo? Was the GG involved? The Mandalorians too?
”
zoomstersays:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 8:04 pm
From Kos Samaras on twitter:
Why does Melbourne attract Alt Right rallies?
Because Melbourne is hostile territory for the conspiratorial Right.
Melbourne is most defined by its progressive & prevailing culture. Our institutions, government to footy, have come to be defined by this culture
It is this culture in which the Right feels most isolated, and threatened. Outcasts with little opportunity to engage with the broader community. Hence they retreat to online communities. When able, they try to express, connect with their in group – normally via online.
When this baseline of isolation gets ramped up by gov policy and public sentiment that reinforces their feeling of estrangement, they equally look to more extreme ways to express their group ID.
Hence, its really easy to recruit terror cells in western cities.
Equally, the urge to express this group ID is far more profound in a city like Melbourne versus other major Aus cities. Especially during a pandemic where the majority support a communitarian approach to the pandemic.
We don’t isolate hotspot LGAs. This angers them.
We don’t support creating two cities, forcing one group to suffer under extreme restrictions whilst the other more wealthy enjoy greater liberties. This angers them.
We support COVID policies clearly designed to prevent the vulnerable, health and economic, from dying in large numbers. This really really angers them. In Sydney, this same group would feel better about those local settings. The brown people are suffering more.
They at first protested against lockdowns. Now it’s vaccines. Going forward. Bodies like ASIO will be focusing on cities like Melbourne, more than others. The Alt Right will more than likely continue to express their group ID more in this city than any other.
Remember, vaccine mandates are far stricter in Sydney. But the Alt Right group ID is not as isolated in that city versus Melbourne.
”
To buttress above argument, for example, Melbourne has produced alt-right personalities like Credlin, Bolt and alt-right entities like IPA , Victorian Liberal party, who stoke that anger.
“Shorten should have been at the Tweed telling Bob Brown to go home. That would have saved a few seats.”
***
Wait, so a Victorian should have gone to NSW to tell a Tasmanian to stay out of Queensland? Ok…
It’s a pretty Bob-friendly area up here in Northern NSW, there’s a good chance Shorten would have been sent packing back to Maribyrnong instead! Bye bye, Bill!
Although unlucky for Manly to have at first blush two tries disallowed, great first half by Souths, leading 22-0, most of the play in Manly’s half. Manly’s not out of it, but the working man’s team of old must be favoured. Could be an omen for Labor.
Vaccine rollout:
NSW
57.8% fully vaccinated; 84.7% first dose
National
50.1% fully vaccinated; 74.8% first dose
Of the estimated population aged 16 and over
– SMH
Fairly obvious that they don’t see it as being about Global Warming at all. It’s about money, and to maintain access to that money they’ve decided what is needed is a sales pitch. Obviously Joyce wouldn’t have a problem with selling Australia’s inaction as action.
They may get away with it too, with the UK and US backing and enabling Australia’s dishonesty.
The risk is everyone adopts Australia’s game, pats themselves and each other on the back while doing as little as possible, and the world fails to take adequate action. We’re already behind, so this kind of game is quite dangerous.
Its time Mavis, time to slaughter a chook and examine the entrails ?
Tea leaves are more reliable.
Firefox2 says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 8:59 pm
“Shorten should have been at the Tweed telling Bob Brown to go home. That would have saved a few seats.”
***
Wait, so a Victorian should have gone to NSW to tell a Tasmanian to stay out of Queensland? Ok…
Absolutely. He would have been seen as defending the electors of Queensland from the attempted blackmail of the Greens. He may well have won the election had he done so. But he cavilled. Pathetic.
South Sydney is Albo’s team (and KK’s) – generally liked as they represent the (former) working class area south of the city, and are a foundation club.
Manly Warringah are Tony Abbott’s team (and Bronwyn Bishop) – generally hated due to being silvertails, and poaching star players from other teams with bucketloads of cash.
Nearly everyone will enjoy Manly being spanked..
I would recommend listening to this weeks podcast by vanbadam. It’s called week on Wednesday.
She goes into great detail as to the far right influence and how this weeks protest tie in.
N says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 8:15 pm
…..I will add that Labor’s 2019 campaign was abysmal in Queensland….
….and not only in QLD. Labor ran the most self-indulgent FIGJAM campaign imaginable. They also walked into the Adani trap laid for them by the Greens and the LNP.
________________
I do remember you getting nervous in the lead up to the 2019 election. You were about the only person on here who was (apart from Wayne), so have always followed your posts as you are not as one eyed as some.
Interested in your opinion on what Labor will do in the next few months if the polls start trending back to the Govt. Am not sure a 2007 “Me Too” type of election campaign is going to work in 2022.
Albo v Morrison is no Rudd v Howard.
Maybe it is the impact of Covid or the strong State Labor position across the country but the Morrison govt does not seem to be on its last legs like the Howard govt was. That’s even allowing for corrupt public spending and a slow vaccine roll out.
What’s your take on the next 6 months ?
Socrates says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 8:45 pm
N
Indeed, why vote Green (or Labor) when you can vote for a so much more corrupt incumbent who are still approving new coal mines?
The Greens ride shotgun for the LNP anyway. Their dwindling supporters might as well just vote for the LNP directly.
More seriously, the LNP will be making such an appeal to climate-conscious voters. They will set out to woo these cohorts. They don’t need to succeed with all of them…some will be enough. Remember, the Greens campaign 24/7 against Labor. Their supporters hold their metaphorical noses when they pref Labor. They will do the same when they vote LNP.
The Greens can be put out of business by the LNP.
I have read at times the different comments on this blog over the past week on the reasons for the submarine backflip. I do not pretend to be any expert on subs, and know they are so complex that the real experts probably aren’t allowed to comment, here or anywhere else. I will accept the navy have good reasons for wanting to switch to a nuke-powered sub, and have no ideological argument with that. That still leaves the ham fisted manner the contract was cancelled.
We haven’t discussed the economics of the industry much. I think this explains the decision better than anything else.
There have been reports for years that the European shipbuilding industry is over capacity and that includes naval shipbuilding. The French navy has cut back new ship contracts in recent years. So the sub contract was a big prize for Naval Group; bigger than any of their French contracts.
This probably explains why the French kept wanting to take as much of the sub work as possible back to France – they needed the jobs too. It would also explain why Australia would not want to switch to a French nuclear sub. The same problem would remain – the French will never really want to give most of the work to Australia.
Assuming (reasonably I think) that was the real problem, the decision by Pyne to give the French the contract in the first place was a terrible one. They would never give as many jobs as promised to Adelaide.
So was the contract management to wind back the amount of Aussie content in the subs from 90% to 60% and possibly less. This was hopeless management.
For all the talk about diplomatic damage, there has been little discussion of the fact that billions have been wasted, virtually no Aussie jobs created, some that have been in Adelaide are about to be lost, and now Adelaide won’t get any significant construction job gains out of subs before 2030. What a colossal failure.
Meanwhile Chris Pyne continues in his post-politics industry sinecure.
Further to my missive above, if my theory is correct (that it is all about who gets the jobs and money, not defense) then I predict the British will get the next nuclear sub contract. Their shipyards are looking for more work, having almost finished the Astutes, whereas the US ones are flat out on their US Navy contracts.
Why else was Boris even needed in the announcement?
As a North Sydney supporter as a kid, nothing brings me more joy than seeing Manly lose.
Taylormade says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 9:16 pm
The default position…in my opinion…is as follows:
1. The LNP usually win federal elections.
2. Labor only rarely win from Opposition.
3. They almost never win from Opposition when also deeply/institutionally split (as is now the case).
4. The LNP start as favourites in any federal election.
5. In the time of covid, voters badly want governments to successfully manage the pandemic, which has meant protecting the health system and minimising the incidence of illness and death, and which is coming to also mean restoring pre-covid economic and social norms.
6. The Federal government has badly under-delivered on Covid and are at risk of losing seats in WA, QLD and Victoria.
7. The LNP have mistakenly sought to politicise covid, and voters are rightly very resentful of that.
8. Their incompetent and opportunist approach to covid puts their electoral chances in jeopardy.
9. If the election is about covid/health and competence, the LNP could lose to a very-low-risk Labor opposition, whose strong suit has always been health.
10. If the election is fought on other territory – the economy, climate change, defence or some other theme – the LNP will have a much stronger case.
11. The LNP is seeking to neutralise covid as an issue, and will wait for the vaccinations and the consequent relaxations to condense in people’s behaviour/expectancy.
12. Labor have very little opportunity to alter any of this. Covid has completely dominated the public sphere since early 2020. This remains the focus for most people.
13. Because covid is so contagious and there is such a large population with no immunity at all, it remains the most important conditioning factor.
14. We all have to wait and see what unfolds.
15. The result will mostly depend on voter-expression in WA and QLD, where things currently favour Labor.
16. It’s too early to call an election.
🙂
N says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 9:37 pm
Taylormade says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 9:16 pm
The default position…in my opinion…is as follows:
1. The LNP usually win federal elections.
2. Labor only rarely win from Opposition.
3. They almost never win from Opposition when also deeply/institutionally split (as is now the case).
4. The LNP start as favourites in any federal election.
_____________
collection of odd statements.
Both Labor and the Liberals have won 3 times from Opposition since 1950. Or from 1971. Take your pick
It has taken a pandemic for Sydney men to look as scruffy as Des Hasler always looks.
N
There’s a fundamental contradiction between not seeing covid spiral out of control on the one hand, and delivering the “freedom” that Scomo/Gladys have been promising. There’s been all kinds of expectations built up. That vaccines are magic. That there will be no more lockdowns. That there will be no more capacity limits in large venues. Those expectations will not be met.
The only question is how bad will Gladys allow things to become before giving up and re-imposing restrictions or lockdowns.
The Labor-positive plurality has been green-anted. The starting favourites in any Federal election are the LNP.
Cud Chewer says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 9:50 pm
N
There’s a fundamental contradiction between not seeing covid spiral out of control on the one hand, and delivering the “freedom” that Scomo/Gladys have been promising.
Yup. I’m sure the LNP are very well aware of this too. They will try to shift the political discourse.
N says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 9:52 pm
The Labor-positive plurality has been green-anted. The starting favourites in any Federal election are the LNP.
________
If you’d studied the decline of mass parties in Australia then these events won’t seem so mysterious to you.
Life is no fun without a bit of mystery.
What happened to the vehicle building industry which was a mainstay of the SA economy and employment profile, including thru related manufacture?
Is that why the building of submarines at the old Port Road GMH site was entered into by the Federal Government?
To protect how many seats in SA?
Lars ”Remember when you were forecasting vaccination finishing in 2024?”
Yes, that was consistent with what was happening earlier this year with a lack of vaccine supplies, no coherent communication strategy and a snail-paced vaccine rollout. We are playing catch-up. As I said, better late than never.
I’m not mystified by the erosion of the Labor-positive plurality. The causes are there for all to observe.
Great result for Souths, a team I’ve followed for nigh on 110 years, easily into next Sunday’s GF, 36-16. The stats say it all, Souths having 64% of the possession in the first half and around the same in the second. The ball bounce also favoured the Bunnies. One of the best tries I’ve seen for a long time was a backward one by Paulo at the 60 minute point. And they even brought on old (36) Benji Marshall, who played a pearler. I’m picking Souths to win the grand final, probably against Melbourne, in Brisbane Sunday week. Wayne Bennett again proved his prowess as a coach.
N says:
Friday, September 24, 2021 at 10:03 pm
I’m not mystified by the erosion of the Labor-positive plurality. The causes are there for all to observe.
________
What is your explanation for the Rise of the Greens?
Collapse of the working class? Or Hipsters just way cooler than Labor fogeys?
Winners are grinners..
Congrats Mavis. I will be going for Melbourne tomorrow. Under normal circumstances I would be barracking for the Bulldogs, a great working class history, against the Club of the Establishment.
BUT. Footscray won a flag in 2016 and Melbourne hasn’t won a flag since 1964.
Under the theory of Utilitarianism, which I am fond of, I must support the Demons.
Sprocket, I have always been Albo’s biggest supporter on here. Way before you took down Littlefingers’ poster and replaced it with Albos’.
And Albo is looking good, lost some weight, good facial definition. Sexy Albo might be back for the election.
Cannot see Souths getting within cooee of Storm in the Grand Final.
Beat a very average Manly team, and had to work for it, even with a massive amount of possession and two very dubious no try calls.
My thoughts….Storm to flog the Panthers tomorrow then demolish Souths.
It’s going to be a very one sided Grand Final.
Yes, I have put my money where my thoughts are…easy money.
The Liberal Party seems to be degenerating in Sydney…
“A Sydney Liberal party councillor will respond to a court application next month after he was accused of a foul-mouthed tirade directed at a fellow party member.
NSW Police are making a personal violence order application on behalf of Lakemba Liberal branch president Mohammad Zaman against Parramatta councillor and lawyer Benjamin Barrak.
Court documents reveal Mr Barrak is accused of making threats towards Mr Zaman after he entered his Lakemba grocery store on two occasions in April this year.
Footage of one incident showed Mr Barrak throwing a chair and paper in the man’s store.
Mr Barrak, who according to documents denies the allegations, is accused of saying “good luck keeping your house you f****** stupid c***”.
He is also accused of saying “you f****** idiot, not listening to us, you are being a smart arse, you get f*****, you will never run again, you are finished from the party, left and right working together now we are more than 60 per cent we will take over your branch”.
He’s also accused of sticking his middle finger up in the man’s face.
The meeting was shortly before the Watson federal electoral conference (Canterbury-Bankstown) annual general meeting, which would decide who would run the party within the electorate.
https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/truecrimeaustralia/police-courts-nsw/parramatta-councillor-benjamin-barrak-accused-of-foul-mouthed-tirade/news-story/597be4eb078b09153b60a4deca74d1c1
SOUTHS DID IT!
I don’t care about your dispassionate analysis as to the fact they will likely lose against the Storm next week (who haven’t even won tomorrow yet) but the Bunnies WILL be there!
Anyone still think I’ve been crazy saying “Beware the Climate Epiphany”?
It’s panning out about the way I thought it would:
● Morrison claiming that not only is he in favour of “2050 Net Zero Carbon”, but that – as everybody must acknowledge if they are being fair and not just playing grubby politics – he has ALWAYS been in favour of it;
● Frydenberg urging Australian “Business” not to lose this once in a lifetime opportunity to cash in on Climate Action;
● Barnarby Joyce about to cave;
● News Corp ditto.
None of it will mean anything substantial but, as far as the media is concerned, Morrison’s brilliant about face will be the only game in town, with Labor dismissed as well-meaning fuddy-duddys on Climate, but really out of their depth – just look at all the time they’ve wasted! – when it comes to matching Morrison.
BB turns up to tell us he was right about something. At least when I do it I know I’m being a dick.